This weekend, it was Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows', the follow-up to the 22-month-old Michael Bay-produced TMNT, turn to disappoint audiences nationwide, pulling in only $35M in its OW. That's down almost 50% from the 2014 film's debut in August, the surprising $65M that ended up besting Guardians of The Galaxy in its sophomore frame. It's the fourth straight sequel in this young summer to fail to meet expectations, with Captain America: Civil War, Neighbor's 2, and Alice Through The Looking Glass all failing their predecessors - and things don't look good this weekend. Meanwhile, the romantic tearjerker Me Before You, starring Khalessi and Finnick Odair, didn't quite match it's Fault In Our Stars comp but took in a respectable $18.7M and has $50M total in its sights. On the other hand, The Lonely Island's Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping put up a $4M opening, awful even for their standards. It couldn't even match Hot Rod's $5M OW from 2007 - the lowest of low bars.
With no new PTA prospects, TMNT2 and Me Before You easily took the top 2 spots, while X-Men: Apocalypse managed another 3 PTA points. Maggie's Plan ( 6 points so far) and Weiner (8 so far) added a couple extra points to their coffers, and likely will be their last.
This weekend's wide releases...
The Conjuring 2 (WB) - Every couple of years, there's a horror film that builds up a pre-release reputation as the "scariest movie of all-time", complete with reports of audiences fainting from fright and running out of theaters during pre-screenings. In 2009, it was Paranormal Activity; in 2010, it was M. Night Shymalan's Devil; and in 2013, it was the summer hit The Conjuring. Not surprisingly, after one sorta-successful spinoff, the long-awaited aptly-titled sequel has arrived: The Conjuring 2. Again following the "true stories" of the infamous paranormal detectives from the 1970s, Ed and Lorraine Warren (Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga, respectively), the follow-up sees the couple travel to London to help a single mother and a young girl super-possessed by a demon - complete with deep voice and blank staring. Sure to be chock full of jump scares and Patrick Wilson-yelling (Conjuring-yelling, not Insidious-yelling), The Conjuring 2 looks to repeat the success of the first and so far, it even has the exact same RT score (86%).
Just like the original, The Conjuring is poised to be the first big horror film of the summer and is the first horror film in months; the last option being last month's little-see The Darkness ($4M/$10M). It has an effective marketing campaign and the trailers/TV spots have been on point, as far as creepiness. But much like the other sequels of the summer, it has done very little to differentiate itself from the film it's following; the marketing here is almost beat-for-beat identical to that of The Conjuring. The issue being that it was fresh then, and now, especially with 2014's Annabelle ($37M/$84M) and numerous copycats, a lazy campaign that rests simply on name recognition won't be enough to improve on 2013's entry. Patrick Wilson's other horror franchise experienced this with its second sequel: last summer's Insidious Chapter 3 ($22M/$52M) came off the hit Insidious Chapter 2 ($40M/$83M) with the same attitude and paid the price. The same will happen here, especially since WB chose almost the exact same weekend as Insidious Chapter 3 to open their conjuring sequel.
The Prediction - The Conjuring 2 will continue the Great Sequel Drought of Summer 2016, mostly because it fails to bring anything new to its franchise and has become nothing more than ho-hum, even to the most ardent horror fans. It will win the weekend however, opening to $29M, amassing 9 Top 5 points, 6 PTA points, and totaling right around the $67M mark. It'll run you $16 in the May-July BO Leagues, making it one of the better mid-range options - it would be a real toss-up to take this or next weekend's Central Intelligence.
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Now You See Me 2 (LGF/Summit) - The second sequel of the weekend, although we're dealing with more magic and sleight of hand than murderous demons or Patrick Wilson hanging out of windows. Now You See Me 2 is the follow-up to another surprise hit of Summer 2013, this time being Now You See Me - the tale of 4 thieving street magicians that managed to steal $117M from audiences right out from under that summer's Fast & Furious 6 and Man of Steel. This time, we'll have the return of the Four Horseman (Jesse Eisenberg, Dave Franco, and Woody Harrelson reprise their roles, while replacing Isla Fisher with Lizzy Caplan) as they've settled down comfortably after completing their mission secretly given to them a mystery benefactor (no spoilers!). However, they're soon forced out of retirement when tech mogul Walter Mabry (Harry Potter himself!) blackmails them to pull off another needlessly complicated heist with the help of MAGIC! Or CGI, as it were. Now You See Me 2 returns other main players, with Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, and Mark Ruffalo, while bringing in fresh blood: the aforementioned Daniel Radcliffe, Sanaa Lathan, and The Green Hornet's Jay Chou. Much like The Conjuring, this sequel is keeping up with its original in the RT department: its 46% pretty close to the first's 49%.
At the risk of repeating myself, Now You See Me 2 will suffer from a case of "been there, done that" and that's because the entire marketing campaign chooses to focus on inane magic tricks lifted from the first film rather than anything new or exciting to pull people back into theaters. We've got Dave Franco throwing more playing cards across rooms, more handcuff play, and Eisenberg basically pulling off miracles (come on, he stops rain in midair! And is "Stop. Make it go back up." the single worst line in any film this year?). The first one reintroduced magician films and used it to propel an interesting heist film, it was different and audiences responded. At least with this summer's failed sequels so far, they at least attempted to throw a twist on the original's premise: Neighbors 2 replaced the Frat with a Sorority, TMNT2 introduced villains from the cartoon not yet seen on the big screen, etc. Alice Through The Looking Glass failed to introduce anything different and we know what happened there.
Hell, the marketing fails to even spotlight Daniel Radcliffe as the villain; for some odd reason choosing to single out the returns of Michael Caine and Morgan Freeman. Just an example of the studio thinking that pushing audiences what they know is the safe and smartest tactic.
The Prediction - Lionsgate saw a hit in Now You See Me and lazily rushed a sequel into production to capitalize - they just forgot to make it interesting. Now You See Me Destroying A Potential Franchise will open to only $18M, nabbing 4 Top 5 points, _ PTA points, before disappointing studio heads to the tune of $42M total. In June-Aug BO Leagues, $12 is an apt price, but with several sure things most likely taking up the bulk of your slate, even if you have that much left over, I wouldn't put it all on Now You See Me 2. The Purge 3, Tarzan, and Sausage Party all cost the same and look to have way more breakout potential.
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Warcraft (Universal) - Straight outta the late 90s from the LCD computer monitors and dial-up connections of basements across the world, World of Warcraft will finally see its day in multiplexes - and only a decade too late! Universal will be pushing the $160M CGI-fest, Warcraft, into close to 3,500 2D, 3D, and IMAX 3D theaters this weekend. Because I can't tell what the fuck this movie is about from the trailers, I'll let IMDb do the heavy lifting: "The peaceful realm of Azeroth stands on the brink of war as its civilization faces a fearsome race of invaders: orc warriors fleeing their dying home to colonize another." It's digital Orcs vs Humans In Armor in Lord of The Rings-lite. Starring a who's who of B-list supporting actors like Ben Foster, Paula Patton, Dominic Cooper, and Fant4stic's Toby Kebbell, Warcraft is easily the worst-reviewed release of the weekend, with a 18% RT to prove it.
With stories of a troubled production and rising budgets, Universal has lot to contend with to pull in audiences this weekend. Luckily, World of Warcraft happens to be the most popular computer MMO of all-time, at one time boasting millions and millions of users worldwide. Warcraft has already opened in many terroritories outside the U.S. and is burning up the box office - its Chinese release has already broken the record for biggest pre-release ticket sales ever. The kind of reception stateside is seemingly out the question, as it's struggling to appeal to general audiences outside of hardcore fans of the game. It's already invoking comparisons to legendary bombs such as John Carter ($30M/$71M), Jack The Giant Slayer ($27M/$65M), or Universal's own Battleship ($25M/$65M). With its bland genre-specific details, Warcraft is looking more like 2010's Prince of Persia ($30M/$90M) than anything - but it doesn't even have an up and coming star to anchor it, like Jake Gyllenhaal.
With its spectacular foreign box office, we'll likely see a sequel in a few years, but unless Universal starts importing Chinese citizens, there's no way that'll help the film this weekend.
The Prediction - Warcraft has been fighting an uphill battle to impress since it started production, but it'll most likely be the poster child for a down box office this summer. It should open to $23M, notching 6 Top 5 points, 4 PTA points, and taking in $55M total (less than half its budget, pre-P&A). Warcraft would cost you $12 in June-Aug BO Leagues if you were foolish enough to pick it, but you're not. No, thank you, Universal - take your mo-capped Orcs somewhere else.
This week's limited releases...
From Afar (Strand) - From Afar, the latest foreign drama from new distributor Strand, is the story of Armando, a middle-aged Venzulean man dead set on exacting revenge on his father - he enlists the help of a teenager, Elder, whom he also pays to have sex with? I don't know, it's foreign. It's the feature debut of director Lorenzo Vigas and despite its trailer confusing the hell out of me, it's been extremely well-reviewed out of last year's TIFF and other festivals with a 94% RT (although it was not Venezuela's Oscar selection for Best Foreign Film this year).
From what I can gather, From Afar will be playing in only one theater this weekend in New York City. While that may be tempting, remember that Strand put out another foreign drama, Chevalier, in only 3 theaters a couple of weeks ago; Chevalier was unable to break into the PTA race, with a measly $1.9K PTA. I don't expect much more from From Afar, and I would not spend the $3 it costs in the June-Aug Ultimate Leagues.
Genius (Roadside Attractions) - Roadside Attractions has been on nice hot streak in our game this year, with March's Hello, My Name Is Doris (6 PTA & $14M BO) and last month's Love & Friendship (6 PTA & $7M BO so far). They're hoping to keep it up this weekend with Genius, the based-on-a-true-story drama about Maxwell Perkins, the legendary book editor who discovered both F. Scott Fitzgerald and Ernest Hemingway in the early 1900s. The film follows Perkins' struggles with his 3rd discovery, author Thomas Wolfe, as he tries desperately to convince Wolfe to cut down his massive debut novel. Starring Colin Firth as Perkins, Jude Law as Wolfe, as well as Nicole Kidman, Laura Linney, and Guy Pearce, the star-studded film doesn't seem to be resonating with critics. Its soft reviews out of the Berlin Film Festival and a 42% RT say as much.
Roadside's two PTA winners this year both opened to only 4 theaters, but for some reason, they're pushing Genius into 16 theaters this weekend. This is not quite a death knell, as they released Spike Lee's Chi-Raq into 17 locations last December and that managed a $3.9K PTA. With the soft PTA field, a similar PTA should be good enough for a fair share of the PTA pie. Arthouses love a good movie star-fest and the focus on American literary history seems to as good as a genre for older people looking for something other than giant ninja turtles. $3 in the June-Aug Ultimate Leagues seems like a good ROI for at least 3 PTA points, and a good possibility for more.
Diary of A Chambermaid (Cohen) - This French film, from prolific director Benoit Jacquot, will be getting a prime release into just 2 theaters in NY and LA from Cohen Media Group. Diary of A Chambermaid stars Lea Seydoux, known for Blue Is The Warmest Color and her turn as a Bond Girl in last year's Spectre, as Celestine, a young women in Paris forced to take a job in the country as the prime maid for a demanding high class woman, Madam Lanlaire. While there, Celestine must deal with unwanted advances of her husband, her obsession with the mysterious gardener, and the rigors of tending to an old woman's every need. Nominated for Best Screenplay at this year's Cesars (France's Oscars), it's only sporting a decent 67% on RT so far.
Cohen found a bit of success last December with Hitchcock/Truffaut, releasing it into 3 theaters - good enough for a $9K PTA. Of course, it had to contend with several Oscar hopefuls so it could only capture a single PTA point. Diary of A Chambermaid doesn't have the draw of a film history documentary that would appeal to arthouse audiences, but the French film should be good for a similar output. The $3 is a risk, but foreign dramas are almost always a bet on the safer side.
The Predictions For The Weekend of June 10th-12th:
1. The Conjuring 2 - $31M
2. Warcraft - $23M
3. Now You See Me 2 - $18M
4. TMNT: Out of The Shadows - $14M
5. X-Men: Apocalypse - $9M
PTA: The Conjuring 2, Warcraft, Genius, Now You See Me 2, Diary of A Chambermaid
The box office stops for no one! And next week, we'll finally get what the industry hopes will pull this summer out of the dumps: Pixar's Finding Dory, the long-awaited sequel to Finding Nemo. We'll also have the 2nd of 3 Kevin Hart films this year, however it's easily the most promising - Central Intelligence. And in limited release, the Eli Roth-produced Clown will try its best to fuel nightmares.
