Last weekend, the biggest story was not The Angry Birds Movie winning the weekend with an unspectacular-but-still-impressive $39M or The Nice Guys proving me to be an optimistic fool but posting what everyone else expected with an $11M 4th place showing. No, the big surprise was Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising bombing with only $21M, a little less than half the opening of Neighbors two years ago. Replacing the frat boys with the hard-partying Hit Girl and her sorority sisters proved to be a huge mistake, as Seth Rogen continues to prove he's less and less of a sure thing with each disappointment. The comedy will most likely end up with less than $60M, putting in the lead for the biggest bomb of the summer race so far.
PTA: The IFC doc Weiner surprised with his strong showing, winning the weekend just barely above The Lobster (9 points so far. Maggie's Plan had to settle for 3rd place, while somehow Love & Friendship managed to hold on to another 2 PTA points (6 so far and still at 99% on RT!).
This week's wide releases...
X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) - Following in the steps of the can't-be-killed Fast & Furious franchise, X-Men: Apocalypse is the 9th (!) entry in the weird and time-travel-confused X-Men film franchise, including this year's uber-popular Deadpool. Somehow, we're back in the 80s this time, in a direct sequel to 2014's X-Men: Days of Future Past, as the McAvoy Professor X puts together his team of students to stop the immortal and all-powerful mutant Apocalypse, who has assembled his Four Horseman and plans to eradicate the Earth of all non-mutants.
Even though Apocalypse has so far received the 2nd worst reviews of any X-Men film ever (sitting at 48% RT), it's expected to battle Days of Future Past for the best team X-Men opening ($90M). It's heavily anticipated and will undoubtedly benefit from the critical love that Days of Future Past enjoyed two years ago (91% RT). It's also rumored to be the last installment with series star Jennifer Lawrence and perhaps the end of McAvoy's Professor X and Michael Fassbender's Magneto as the series looks to move past the 60s/70s/80s trilogy.
X-Men: Apocalypse should open to $95M (3-day), $113M (4-day), amassing 12 Top 5 points, 7 PTA points, and topping out right around $229M. It's priced at $37, making it the 2nd most expensive title left in the May-July Leagues (after Finding Dory) - it's a sure thing for the most part, but Independence Day: Resurgence has the highest probability of shattering expectations this summer and for $32, I think that's a play with much more upside.
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Alice Through The Looking Glass (BV) - The other sequel of the weekend, the one that absolutely nobody asked for and very little are anticipating is Disney's Alice Through The Looking Glass, four years after Tim Burton's Alice In Wonderland took full advantage of the brand new 3D craze to the tune of $330M+. After Alice has saved Wonderland (or whatever the first was about), she must return to help save The Mad Hatter by traveling back in time or something something - it's just a shitload of bright colors and Depp going full Depp. Even worse than X-Men Apocalypse, Alice is getting toasted by critics with a 29% RT, down from the first's 52%.
Disney has been pushing the film hard, but the new plot is very hard to get across in a 30 second spot - we know there's a new character, Time itself, played by Sacha Baron Cohen. But how he fits in with all the returning characters is unclear - and with no strong story to hook audiences, Looking Glass has to rely on its visuals. But it's far from 2010 and the newness of 3D is far behind us: what we have is a candy-colored mess that most families will pass up for The Angry Birds Movie this weekend.
Alice Through The Looking Glass is looking at a $38M opening ($48M 4-day), 7 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, and a total of no more than $91M, a far cry from blockbuster status. Yet in the May-July BO Leagues, it's priced as such - $29, which is more expensive than surefire hits like Secret Life of Pets or next week's TMNT sequel. It's a hard pass for me here.
This week's limited release...
Chevalier (Strand) - Priced at $1, this Greek film from Strand Releasing will be playing in 3 theaters this weekend. Strand has never had a film in our game, and that's for a reason - they're not big enough to get anywhere close to the PTA race ever. They had a highly acclaimed film released in March, Valley of Love, in only 2 theaters; it managed to have the 10th best PTA that weekend, behind 3 wide openers and Eye In The Sky in over 100 theaters. The main reason it's here is to fill out the meager limiteds during the summer - if you pick it, it'll only be because you happen to have $1 left over.
The Predictions For The Week of May 27th-29th:
1. X-Men: Apocalypse - $92M
2. Alice Through The Looking Glass - $38M
3. The Angry Birds Movie - $22M
4. Captain America: Civil War - $18M
5. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - $10M
PTA: X-Men: Apocalypse, Weiner, Alice Through The Looking Glass, The Lobster, Maggie's Plan
A trifecta of giant turtles, lovelorn caretakers, and yes, even Andy Samberg await us in theaters next week, with TMNT: Out of Shadows, Me Before You, and Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping all crash the party in wide release. Surprisingly, we will have no limiteds available, which Weiner couldn't be happier about.
