Disney/Marvel's Captain America: Civil War blew the doors off of the summer, opening to the 5th biggest opening weekend of all-time with $179M in three (and a half) days. Expectations and predictions, including yours truly's, have begun to creep well above the $200M mark, probably spurred on by last year's incredible openings of Jurassic World and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. This dampens this still-amazing opening just a bit, but with its fantastic reviews and WOM, Civil War shouldn't have a problem beating out the total of The Avengers: Age of Ultron.
Unsurprisingly, A Bigger Splash settled for 2nd place behind Captain America in the PTA battle. Equine doc Dark Horse completely missed out on any points, as the 3rd through 5th spots were populated by already-PTA rich titles: The Jungle Book, The Meddler, and The Man Who Knew Infinity.
This week's wide releases...
Money Monster (Sony) - Coming from director Jodie Foster (yes, her), this legal/econ-thriller is being pushed at gun point into over 3,100 theaters from Sony this weekend. Money Monster is the story of a Jim Cramer-esque TV personality with his own economics/stock live show, Lee Gates (George Clooney), who's taken hostage on-air by a gunman (Unbreakable's Jack O'Connell) hellbent on revenge after he lost his family entire savings on a tip from Gates. It also stars Julia Roberts as the show's producer in Gates' ear the whole time, acting as the duo's connection to the outside.
If you look at Roberts' and Clooney's last two thrillers in this vein (The American, Duplicity), you can see they've both opened to $13M, albeit in not too friendly box office waters (Labor Day and March, respectively). Money Monster could see a slight bump, especially if adults opt for something with more substance after last week's superpowered punch-fest that was Civil War.
The Prediction - Clooney and Julia will most likely be enough to bring out the over-40 crowd to multiplexes, although it won't be able to break the $20M mark. Money Monster, with tepid reviews, will open to $15M, nabbing 6 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, while shuffling along to 2nd run theaters eventually with $29M total. At $7 in BO Leagues, it's not a terrible choice, and if you find yourself with that much left over after selecting your anchors and blockbusters. There are other options, but they don't look like better choices by much of a factor, so they're all toss-ups.
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The Darkness (High Top) - Coming from way behind everything else this summer, another low budget haunted house/person story in The Darkness will jump scare into 1,000 theaters, from brand new distributor High Top. Starring Kevin Bacon and the poor man's Kate Beckinsale (Radha Mitchell), the couple, along with their young children, return home from a trip to the Grand Canyon where they accidentally picked up an evil spirit (of course) and now must try to rid their lives of demonic shit. With reviews embargoed until Friday morning, nobody on Earth is expecting a RT score above 20% honestly.
Smaller horror films usually bomb during the summer months, as opposed to January or October where they seem to thrive. From Pulse to An American Haunting to The Quiet Ones, lesser supernatural horrors are known to open anywhere from $5M-$10M. But with Captain America still selling out auditoriums and Money Monster taking the interest of anyone who actually remembers the 80s, there's not much left for whatever the hell The Darkness is.
The Prediction - The Darkness, with its minimal marketing and upstart distributor, is nothing to write home about. It will open to $4M, only stealing 1 Top 5 points, zero PTA points, and will total out only at $9M. It's not worth any price, especially during the summer, and its actual $4 price tag makes it a title for nobody.
This week's limited releases...
The Lobster (A24) - Perhaps the most anticipated film of the summer for cinephiles, The Lobster is the strange romantic comedy from Dogtooth director Yorgos Lanthimos that took Cannes last year by storm, going up with the Jury Prize and the Palm Dog - Jury Prize. It's racked up international acclaim around the world and was finally picked up by A24, who will be releasing the film in only 4 theaters. It's the story of an alternate present where single people are sent to a resort in order to find their soulmate - the catch being that if they do not find a mate within 45 days, they are turned into an animal of their choice for the rest of their life. The title comes from the animal that the main character, David (played by Colin Farrell), chooses to be turned into, if his budding romance with also-single person (Rachel Weisz) doesn't turn out as they hope. It's rocking a great 92% on RT and is sure to take the PTA race handily this weekend. A24 is great with their limiteds, and for $4 in Ult Leagues, it's a must have for it's sure-to-be double digit PTA points.
Love & Friendship (Roadside Attractions) - With a 100% RT and a prime 5 theater opening, it's hard to ignore the promise that Love & Friendship presents this week, even if it's destined to be an also-ran to The Lobster. Starring Kate Beckinsale and Chloe Sevigny, this adaptation of Jane Austen's story is the tale of Lady Susan Vernon (Beckinsale) who arrives in Churchill in 18th century England determined to find a husband for herself and her daughter, accompanied by her best friend, Alicia Johnson (Sevigny). With its arthouse friendly setting and fantastic reviews, Love & Friendship won't have any problems sneaking away a handful of PTA points before Roadside expands it too wide too fast as they're known to do. You could do worse with your $4.
Last Days In The Desert (Broad Green) - An oddly placed summer entry, Last Days In The Desert is the story of a portion of Jesus' 40 day journey through the desert in Biblical times. Ewan McGregor pulls double duty here, playing both Jesus and The Devil, in this new take on a well known Biblical story from the director of Oscar-nominated Albert Nobbs. It's got a 76% RT, which is better than average but still not impressive enough to sway those pesky cinephile arthouse audiences away from A Bigger Splash or The Lobster. Christian films haven't done well during the summer, especially ones that take liberties with the Bible to inject their own interpretation. Even more weird is that expansion schedule for Last Days In The Desert, as it'll add single cities randomly throughout the next few weeks, on any day of the week. I wouldn't trust it to pull in non-Christian audiences, who will have a hard time seeking it out. Hard pass.
Pele: Birth Of A Legend (IFC) - IFC again, only two weeks after their The Man Who Knew Infinity surprised everyone with its strong PTA showing. However, Pele: Birth Of A Legend only has an 11% on RT and it's playing on demand day-and-date with theaters. No thank you, not even worth the $2.
The Predictions For The Weekend of May 13th-15th:
1. Captain America: Civil War - $85M
2. Money Monster - $15M
3. The Jungle Book - $14M
4. Mother's Day - $4.5M
5. The Darkness - $4M
PTA: The Lobster, Captain America: Civil War, A Bigger Splash, Love & Friendship, Money Monster
Next week we're already more than halfway through May! This things moves fast, and it'll gives us three very different films in Neighbors 2: Sorority Row, the animated Angry Birds Movie, and the noir black comedy The Nice Guys. In limited release, we'll be treated to Maggie's Plan and Wiener. Heh.
