Disney's The Jungle Book kept up its crazy April run, falling only 29% in its 3rd weekend, posting a $43M 3-day and pulling its domestic total to over $250M in 21 days. With only one release this week (even if it is Captain America), it will only fall to 2nd place and it'll hit $300M very soon. Keanu, Key & Peele's new release that was expected to put up the best numbers, crumbled under expectations and opened in 3rd with $9.4M - barely beating out its main competition in Garry Marshall's Mother's Day ($8M in 4th place). Coming in way back in 7th place was the low-budget children's video game adaptation Ratchet & Clank, limping onto the charts with a mere $4.8M. It'll be out of the Top 10 this week and playing Sunday afternoons on public access channels by next year.
In a big surprise for anyone who takes my predictions seriously, The Man Who Knew Infinity beat out The Jungle Book for 1st place with a $13K PTA. Jungle Book settled for 4 PTA points, and the real Mother's Day film this year, The Meddler, added 3 more PTA points to its coffers. Keanu and Sing Street respectively brought up the rear, PTA-wise.
This week's wide release...
Captain America: Civil War (BV) - It's time, guys! Arguably the biggest and most-anticipated film of the year is finally here, as Disney starts off the summer with a big ole red-white-and-blue bang as they shove their latest Marvel installment, Captain America: Civil War, down our throats in over 4,200 2D, 3D, 4D, D-Box, RPX, and IMAX 3D theaters this weekend. Phew. Following the events of Captain America: Winter Soldier and The Avengers: Age of Ultron, the team is introduced to the Sokovia Act, legislature that will force all superheroes to be tagged and policed by the government and the remnants of SHIELD. This is supported by Iron Man, guilty over what his creation UItron did, while opposed by Captain America, weary of government interference after taking down Hydra yet again in Winter Soldier. Their disagreement leads to a split across The Avengers, as they take sides and end up fighting to defeat the other side, still under the eye of Nick Fury and, returning from The Incredible Hulk, General Ross. Filled to capacity with all of The Avengers, old and new (sans Thor and Hulk), while introducing even more future Avengers in Black Panther and Spider-Man (as well as bringing Ant-Man into the fold), Civil War is being treated as an unofficial Avengers movie - and it should perform as such. It's rocking a fantastic 92% on RT and should have no trouble remaining the highest grossing movie of the year until December.
Marvel films have continually opened the summer for the last 8 years, starting with Iron Man and its $98M opening - a fantastic start for an unproven actor in Downey and an generally unknown superhero character in Iron Man. The latest, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, opened last summer with $191M, which was actually down from its predecessor's then-record $207M OW. The soft WOM on Age of Ultron led to its disappointing (in context) opening , as its 75% RT can attest to. Civil War has already opened across Europe and is coming in just under Age of Ultron's international openings there; it's breaking those records in certain territories.
While the upcoming Infinity War is what these MCU films have been building to ultimately, with Thanos acquiring all of the Infinity Gems to control reality, Civil War is moreso the culmination of the events that have been transpiring directly on Earth in the MCU. The disagreement between Cap and Iron Man has been building since they met in The Avengers, and the draw of their (presumably) climactic fight that has been in all the marketing is much more enticing than the introduction of unknown, lame robot Ultron last year. Civil War has been regarded by fans as the true Avengers film and it will open much more in-line with the first Avengers than the lackluster Age of Ultron.
The Prediction - Captain America: Civil War already has higher anticipation than Age of Ultron ever did, and will look to break its record to become the highest superhero opening ever - as well as the 2nd highest opening weekend ever. It will open to $210M, amassing a giant 21 Top 5 points, 16 PTA points, and ending its run with more than $645M (good enough for 5th all-time). Of course, it's the most expensive title in the May-July Leagues, but unless you believe a trio of other big titles can beat it, you almost have no choice but to build any slate around it.
This week's limited releases...
A Bigger Splash (Fox Searchlight) - Hoping to detract some of the older audiences away from yet another superhero punch-fest, Fox Searchlight is releasing A Bigger Splash into a prime 4 theaters this weekend. The film follows an aging rock star, Marianne Lane (played by female Daniel Day Lewis, Tilda Swinton), and her husband (Rust & Bone's Matthias Schoenaerts) as their vacation is interrupted by an old, wild friend of Marianne's - Harry (Ralph Fiennes). He joins their vacation and his antics, along with his daughter's (Dakota Johnson), cause even more problem in Marianne's already strained marriage.
A Bigger Splash has both positive reviews (88% on RT) and an indie-friendly cast, especially with Swinton at the helm. In 4 theaters and with Fox Searchlight behind it, A Bigger Splash will have no problem stealing some PTA points from The Meddler and The Jungle Book. Fox Searchlight found PTA success with their last two limited releases, although those were Oscar hopefuls last fall (Youth - 5 PTA points, Brooklyn - 10 PTA points); they know how to successfully platform a indie release. A Bigger Splash will cost you $4, which is the going price of any PTA hopefuls this summer, and it's got a great chance of taking 2nd place behind Civil War for the next 3 weeks.
Dark Horse (Sony Classics) - Opening in 3 theaters this weekend comes yet another foreign horse-racing documentary from Sony Classics in Dark Horse. It tells the true story of how a group of commoners from a low-class mining town in Wales pooled their money together to breed a racehorse and enter it into competitions typically ruled by the bored and the rich. It happened to win the Documentary Award in Sundance last year, and somehow has a 100% on RT - so it's not to be taken as lightly as you think.
Alas, even in a great PTA count of 3 theaters, it's hard to think a documentary about poor Welsh people racing horses can break into the PTA race, especially in a crowded summer. You'd have to go back 3 years to Blackfish to find a nature documentary that made any waves in limited release, or over a decade ago to March of the Penguins. Sony Classics is rolling it out pretty slowly (11 theaters next week, 24 the next) so I'd give it an off-chance of it snagging a couple of PTA points, at best. At $2, you could do worse, so if you have the funds left over from the prime picks, take a flyer here.
**According to IFC's website, Pele: Birth of a Legend is actually coming out next weekend, 5/13. BOM hasn't updated their information yet.**
The Predictions For The Summer's Opening Weekend of May 6th-8th:
1. Captain America: Civil War - $210M
2. The Jungle Book - $22M
3. The Huntsman: Winter's War - $5M
4. Keanu - $4.5M
5. Zootopia - $3M
PTA: Captain America: Civil War, A Bigger Splash, The Jungle Book, The Meddler, Dark Horse
Next week is the typical second weekend of May lull as we'll have only two new wide openers, in Money Monster and The Darkness, as well as three limiteds: Love & Friendship, Last Days In The Desert, and Pele: Birth of a Legend.
This Week In Box Office History...
1999 - Although 2002's Spider-Man is usually accredited with starting the popular early May weekend as the start of the summer trend that has reigned since, it looks like the first highly-anticipated film to open on the first weekend of the month was Brendan Fraser's The Mummy ($43M/$155M) 17 years ago. It managed to rule May easily for the first two weekends, until Star Wars decided to raise its head with Episode 1: The Phantom Menace (sounds familiar...) over the Memorial Day weekend. The Mummy only ended up as the 8th highest grosser of the year, as that summer also gave way to The Matrix, The Sixth Sense, Austin Powers, and Adam Sandler's first huge summer hit, Big Daddy.
