Disney's surprise smash hit The Jungle Book notched an incredible $61M in its second weekend, only a 40% drop from its opening of $103M last week. It's getting great reviews and is a nice end of spring hit for the Mouse House, who of course has their biggest film of the year coming next week with Captain America: Civil War. Within the last 8 weekends, this makes it 5 weekends that have had a Disney film as #1 at the box office (with help from Zootopia), and it looks like the next four weekends might be dominated by Disney as well. At this point, they'll smash Universal's record 2015 as the highest grossing studio in a calendar year sooner rather than later. The big opener, decidely not a Disney film, had to settle for a disappointing 2nd place finish, as The Huntsman: Winter's War was only good for a $19M opening (The Jungle Book's 9th day was more than Huntsman's entire OW). It will likely total out lower than it's predecessor's opening weekend ($56M back in 2012).
There were 3 "limited" releases as well, but all were in over 300 theaters, meaning they couldn't crack the Top 5 nor the PTA race this week. The Jungle Book topped the PTA standings again, and newcomer The Meddler managed 4 points in 4 theaters. Huntsman: Winter's War snuck out with 2 PTA points of its own, which won't do much to soften the mass disappointment of the film as a whole.
This week's wide releases...
Keanu (WB) -
Keanu will open to $20M, grab 9 Top 5 points, amass 5 PTA points, before leaving theaters with $48M total. It'll cost you $10 in April-June BO Leagues, and at this point, it's the best title left at that price point.
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Mother's Day (Open Road) -
Mother's Day will open to $16M, nab 5 Top 5 points, zero PTA points, and will slink out of theaters quickly with a total around $31M. For $9 in April-June BO Leagues, it's a pick that will do way worse than Me Before You ($9) or The Nice Guys ($10).
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Ratchet & Clank (Focus) -
Ratchet & Clank will open to $5M , missing out on any Top 5 and PTA points, and will hit DVD super fast with a shameful theatrical total of $11M. It could be free this season and I wouldn't recommend for anyone.
This week's limited releases...
The Man Who Knew Infinity (IFC) - Making this its 8th release in the first four months of 2016, IFC will be releasing their true story adaptation, The Man Who Knew Infinity, into 5 theaters this weekend. Starring Slumdog Millionaire's Dev Patel as Indian mathematics legend Srinivasa Ramanujan Iyengar, it follows the young student's early years as he's accepted into Cambridge University during WWI and goes to work with his professor, G.H. Hardy (Jeremy Irons), as they eventually rewrite mathematics as we now know it. Despite its respectable cast, The Man Who Knew Infinity hasn't gotten the reviews to match, only sporting a 65% on RT days before release.
IFC doesn't have a strong track record with PTA points, they've only had 1 of their releases in our game this year (Anesthesia) and it could only manage 1 PTA point. And that was in 1 theater! Inspirational true stories usually work with arthouses, but I can't gauge how many Americans are familiar with such a niche story. The film will only get 1 PTA point, but that's more a statement of lack of competition than IFC's release pattern. For $3, I'd just opt for the PTA points of some of the major summer releases instead.
A Beautiful Planet (BV) - I actually believed this to be Disneynature's annual nature documentary, until more research revealed this will be an IMAX-only release from IMAX themselves acting as distributor for the first time ever. Narrated by Jennifer Lawrence, A Beautiful Planet is a look at Earth from the International Space Station, and like most of IMAX's educational documentaries, will be less than an hour long. Due to the popularity of The Jungle Book still, the film will only play once a day, 1st thing in the morning, and being directly from IMAX insures that it will be on every single IMAX screen in the country. Since that numbers somewhere between 350-400, PTA points seem to be out of the question here.
In 2010, Hubble 3D was another short IMAX doc centered on space and the ISS and it managed 3 PTA points against Alice In Wonderland's 3rd weekend, also sharing screens. However Hubble 3D was only in 39 IMAX locations as opposed to A Beautiful Planet's sure-to-be theater count well in the triple digits. Avoid.
The Prediction For What's THISCLOSE To Summer Weekend of April 29th-May 1st:
1. The Jungle Book - $34M
2. Keanu - $20M
3. Mother's Day - $16M
4. The Huntsman: Winter's War - $8M
5. Barbershop: The Next Cut - $5M
PTA: The Jungle Book, Keanu, The Meddler, Sing Street, The Man Who Knew Infinity
Next week IT ALL BEGINS. Not only am I taking about the 2016-2017 Full Year Draft Season, but also the Summer Season itself will finally be here!! We'll have just the one customary major release, with Captain America: Civil War most likely coming close to then-record The Avengers $200M opening.
