Lionsgate continues its trend of diminishing returns on their YA franchise, following the footsteps of disappointing later installments of The Hunger Games and Twilight. The 3rd film of the Divergent series, and Part 1 of the two-part finale, Allegiant opened to $29M this weekend, almost 50% less than what Insurgent opened to last March. It was also easily the worst reviewed film of the franchise so far, with an embarrassing 9% on RT - to put that into perspective, the worst Twilight (New Moon) still managed a 28%. Allegiant will not even reach $100M, and Lionsgate has already responded by slashing the budget of the upcoming Ascendant, schedule for next July. It's $29M wasn't even good enough for first place, since Disney's Zootopia continued to rule March with an iron paw - notching $37M for its third straight #1 finish. The impossibly well-reviewed film, STILL at 99% 3 weeks in, is up to $200M in 17 days and is well on its way to $275M+ and a probable $300M finish. Sony continued their monopoly on Christian-aimed films as well, grabbing a respectable 3rd place with their Jennifer Garner-starring Miracles From Heaven with a $14M 3 day, and $18M since its Wednesday opening. Luckily, there's only one more Christian film in the foreseeable future - I'm basically copying and pasting at this point.
WB's sci-fi thriller Midnight Special notched all 5 PTA points this weekend, as expected. It won't be going wide quickly, so it should be a goldmine for points over the next few weeks. Eye In The Sky grabbed 4 more points for a 9 total so far, while Hello, My Name Is Doris nabbed 2 more PTA points. The other limited newcomer Krisha had to settle for 0 points, even with A24 and a prime 2 theater count.
This week's wide releases...
Batman Vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice (WB) - It's time, you guys! If it wasn't for the insanely surprising performance of Fox's Deadpool ($132M/$341M), this weekend would be first huge release of the year, as WB is steamrolling 4,000+ 2D, 3D, and IMAX theaters with Batman Vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice. Acting as the quasi-sequel to 2013's Man of Steel and the introduction to the DC Cinematic Universe, Batman Vs Superman introduces the newest Bruce Wayne (Ben Affleck) as he reacts to the mass destruction caused by the massive fight between Superman (Henry Cavill) and Zod (Michael Shannon) at the end of Man of Steel. Batman believes Superman to be a threat to humanity that must be wiped out before the alien has a chance to turn on the citizens of Metropolis and Gotham. This leads to an epic spar between the two, before they presumably team up to defeat Lex Luthor (Jesse Eisenberg) and his newest monster creation. Somewhere in there, we'll get glimpses of some of the upcoming Justice League members, including Wonder Woman (Gal Gadot) and Aquaman (Jason Mamoa). Surprisingly, reviews have not been kind to the beginnings of the DCCU, as word of mouth out of press and fan screenings isn't what you'd call "good"; it's currently sitting at 36% on RT, although that shouldn't effect this weekend's gross that much.
When judging the box office prospects of BvS, you have to take a look at the film that really sowed the seeds for this film, and the entire upcoming DCCU: Man of Steel ($116M/$291). Word of mouth was similarly mixed with Man of Steel, mostly due to what many called the "destruction porn" that was the climactic fight, and Superman's seemingly un-Superman like actions to snap Zod's neck at the end. Of course, WB and director Zack Snyder is smartly tying in that fight, making it the catalyst for BvS - turning the most criticized part of Man of Steel into a major plot point for BvS is a stroke of genius and could turn the tide for the DCCU. Man of Steel opened well in June 2013, but could only muster a 2X multiplier, and honestly, a similar fate would not be surprising here. The MCU had the advantage of its first film being universally loved, Iron Man ($98M/$314M), so it could afford critical stumbles like The Incredible Hulk and Iron Man 2.
Even though this is a new Batman with Affleck, most audiences still have Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight trilogy fresh in their minds - and the goodwill from those could end up helping BvS in the slightest. With only 4 years since The Dark Knight Rises, this iteration won't have the long wait or bad taste of the last Batman films that Batman Begins had to contend with back in 2005. Plus, the resurgence of Ben Affleck as an actor and director will drive audiences that might other pass on comic book films; his Oscar-nominated films Gone Girl, Argo, and The Town has made him a box office draw that Batman Vs Superman is otherwise missing (Eisenberg? Cavill?).
Alternatively, the perception of the DCCU is that they're going fairly more serious and darker than their light-heart crowd-pleasing enemies over at Marvel. The "grittiness" will keep BvS away from openings in the range of either Avengers film and Iron Man 3 - not to mention the hyped appearances of Wonder Woman and Aquaman (if not other JL members) gives the film a air of being overstuffed. This didn't affect either Avengers, but those had the advantage of several solo films building to them over years - DC has decided to go straight in with team-up films, which could backfire if the strategy doesn't work.
The Prediction - Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice will need to fend off poor critical reception this weekend, but the mere spectacle of two of the biggest comic book characters in history going head to head is enough to propel the film to the stratosphere. It should open to around $155M, amassing 19 Top 5 points, 14 PTA points, before topping out with no less than $345M. In the March-May Leagues, it's tied for the most expensive title with Captain America: Civil War. You'll need one to anchor your slate, and even though Captain America only has 4 weekends in play, it'll definitely be a toss up between the two. Don't fuck this up, you guys.
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My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 (Universal) - Easily the most anticipated sequel of the year, Universal is blowing the dust off the 14 year old smash hit My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and Windex-ing its aptly named follow-up, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, into over 3,000 theaters this weekend. The original followed Toula (played by Nia Vardalos), a middle-aged single woman who's constantly hounded about finding a husband and running the family restaurant by her giant Greek family, undeterred by personal boundaries. Toula went on to find Ian (John Corbett), who accepted her and her entire family as his own - they rode off happily into the sunset back in 2002. Now the married couple must deal with their high schooler daughter, Paris (Elena Kampouris), as she too struggles to deal with her family's closeness, while at the same time, Toula's parents find out they were never legally married and must rectify it as soon as possible. That'd be the titular Wedding this time. The sequel hasn't been feeling the love so far though, with its lowly 26% RT - compared to the first's 76%, it's a pretty big disappointment so far.
Of course, My Big Fat Greek Wedding is famous for being the highest grossing film to never hit #1 at the box office. Released in April 2002 by IFC into 100 theaters, it opened to a pedestrian $590K, but rode almost-otherworldly positive word of mouth to end up $241M by the time it left theaters the NEXT April. It only broke double digits once ($14M) and that was its highest grossing weekend - and it was Labor Day! So it'd be hard to think any sequel would do any less than gangbusters at the box office...alas, here we are. It's about a decade too late for these Greeks; it should interest the middle age women who loved the original, but the general audiences who made that a hit will not care for another visit from Toula and her family. Long-awaited sequels have continually bombed at the box office recently - from Sin City: A Dame To Kill For ($6M/$13M) to The X-Files: I Want To Believe ($10M/$20M) to Scream 4 ($18M/$38M) to this year's Zoolander 2 ($13M/$28M), these long-in-the-wait sequels almost never work. And the sheer unnecessariness of the film - who really asked for another Nia Vardalos movie? - fails to make it a must-see of franchise fans (is that a thing?).
The Prediction - Universal is opting for the ever-popular counter programming tactic, hoping teens and men will opt for Bruce Wayne and Kal-El this weekend, leaving the women to line up for My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. It's highly doubtful that'll work according to plan, as the film will only open to $14M, nabbing 7 Top 5 points, winning zero PTA points, before leaving theaters much quicker than its predecessor with $40M. In March-May BO Leagues, Greek: The Sequel will cost you $11M, which is way too much for what's expected here. Keanu or May's Money Monster should yield much better results all the way around.
This week's limited release...
I Saw The Light (Sony Classics) - Far away from his horns and scepter that Loki sports in The Avengers films, Tom Hiddleston finds himself this weekend strapping on a guitar and flipping a cowboy hat to become legendary country music star Hank Williams in I Saw The Light. The biopic follows Williams as he rises to country royalty quickly before the lifestyle starts to take a toll of his health and family life. Hiddleston's MCU cast mast Elizabeth Olsen straps on her Carrie Underwood boots as Hank's wife, Audrey. Even with its pedigree cast, it looks like I Saw The Light is destined for darkness - with its middling reviews out of Sundance and a current RT of only 15%, it's hard to imagine this will go the distance as a limited release.
It's being pushed into only 5 theaters by Sony Classics, which is small enough to guarantee a placing this weekend - but also, country music fans will make sure to show up despite the reviews, giving I Saw The Light a great PTA showing its opening weekend. How it does after that is up in the air. Except that it's not, as Sony Classics will be expanding it wide next weekend. It's up to you to decide if 3-4 PTA this weekend is worth its $3 price tag.
The Predictions For The Weekend of March 25th-27th:
1. Batman Vs Superman: Dawn of Justice - $155M
2. Zootopia - $24M
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 - $14M
4. Allegiant - $11M
5. Miracles From Heaven - $9M
PTA: Batman Vs Superman, I Saw The Light, Midnight Special, Eye In The Sky, Zootopia
Next week slows everything way down, since we'll only have 1 wide release, even if it is another sequel (God's Not Dead 2). We'll have more options in our PTA field though, with three new entries (Everybody Wants Some, Miles Ahead, and The Dark Horse).
This week in Box Office History...
1990 - This is a monumental weekend in your life if you love Ocean's Twelve, Eat Pray Love, Stepmom, or The Mexican. That's right - Pretty Woman opened on this weekend twenty six years ago, officially introducing the world to the woman who'd become Julia Roberts: America's 90s Sweetheart. It opened to #1 with $11M before being steamrolled the next week by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. However, it held extremely well throughout the summer into the fall, racking up 41 Top 5 points in the March-May Leagues only - if they'd existed back then. Roberts was nominated for a Best Supporting Actress Oscar that year and Pretty Woman ended up being the 4th highest grossing film of the year, totaling $178M.
