Bringing the heat to Deadpool and its 3 week reign at #1, Disney Animation notched its biggest non-Pixar animated opening ever, with Zootopia's astounding $75M 3-day. With great WOM and critical acclaim coming out of its trunk, Zootopia will easily blow past $250M and could be within spitting range of $300M. It easily nabbed the 4th highest opening ever for March and could end up as the month's 3rd highest grossing film, at least this side of Batman Vs Superman. On the other side of multiplexes was Gerard Butler's action sequel, London Has Fallen, which couldn't exactly replicate the success of Olympus - but with a $21M opening, it should be enough to see Butler's Secret Service agent save the President in Ethiopia or the Outback in another 3 years. Coming up short, however, was Tina Fey's Iraqi-reporter comedy, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, pulling in only $7M and settling for 4th place ultimately. It'll disappear pretty quickly.
Zootopia of course took the PTA crown as well, but Terrence Malick's Knight of Cups managed to take advantage of a weak field and an all-star cast to nab 2nd place with a $25K PTA. The openers took all the other PTA points, with Deadpool and London sneaking some more as well.
This week's wide releases...
10 Cloverfield Lane (Paramount) - Eight years. That's how long it's taken for JJ Abrahams to forget about his Star Trek and Star Wars films, and come back to what we've really been waiting for - a Cloverfield sequel. Except that this isn't that, exactly - referred to as a "blood relative" of the original, the film is more than enough for fans that have been anticipating anything in the Cloverfield universe for almost a decade. And with that, Paramount will be releasing the Abrahams-produced, Dan Trachtenberg-directed 10 Cloverfield Lane into over 3,200 theaters this weekend. Abrahams has promised that 10 Cloverfield Lane will not feature the same monster from the 2008 movie, nor the same characters; but then again this is guy who also swore Khan wasn't a part of Star Trek Into Darkness, so who really knows? This "blood relative" seems to center on Michelle (as played by Mary Elizabeth Winstead) who's involved in a car crash and wakes up in a underground bunker, apparently held captive by Howard (John Goodman) who tells her he saved her and there's been some sort of natural disaster outside, keeping them underground. Now whether Howard is telling the truth or is just crazy, and what would happen when Michelle attempts to escape her captor/savior is the rub of 10 Cloverfield Lane. Of course, being from Abrahams, we have no idea what to expect. However, critics were allowed to lay eyes on the film, and so far, word of mouth has been fantastic, proven by its 94% on RT so far.
However, many are not expecting any sort of repeat performance of Cloverfield's opening weekend back in January of 2008. Cloverfield set the then-January record with an astounding $40M, but poor WOM - mostly due to its incessant shaky cam - led to it only posting a 2x multiplier to end up with only $80 at the end of its run. This "blood relative" (god, that's pretentious) has not featured any sort of monster in its advertising - in fact, the tagline, "Monsters come in many forms", seems to imply that any sort of actual monster will not make an appearance. This makes the film a claustrophobic, one-set piece with only 3 characters to sustain the running time, and that type of film does not set the box office alight. The Cloverfield connection will undoubtedly boost its prospects, but it's still looking at an opening and total comparable more to Predators ($24M/$52M) - another offshoot of an immensely popular film that will suffer from the lack of hook that the original(s) had.
Paramount, of course, mounted an insane marketing campaign for the original, filled with internet hunting, hidden web code in trailers, while creating a universe that the actual film only hinted at; this explains a majority of that major opening Cloverfield experienced. They have not done anything of the sort for 10 Cloverfield Lane, which is why this spinoff(?) should only reach 50% of what the original did eight years ago.
The Prediction - Paramount has seemed to rest on the legend of Cloverfield, opting to do very little with marketing the film. While some say it's to keep the mystery, it's not what you want when you're thinking of the bottom line. 10 Cloverfield Lane should open to $22M, amass 6 Top 5 points, capture up to 2 PTA points, and top out around $53M before giving way to earlier summer hits. In the March-May BO Leagues, the Cloverfield "blood relative" (Jeez, I hate myself more every time I type that) is priced at a tempting $16, but given the heavy hitters of May, I wouldn't risk a space or the money on such a quiet drama. Monster or no monster, don't expect 10 Cloverfield Lane to topple any box office buildings this spring...
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The Brothers Grimsby (Sony) - Sacha Baron Cohen, once a staple in dorm rooms and frat basements across America, has become a shell of himself in the decade since his breakthrough in Borat. This may be why this is his first comedy to open outside of summer since Borat, as Sony will be pushing his latest, The Brothers Grimsby, into over 2,000 theaters this weekend. The film, paralleling Cohen's career trajectory, seems to be a bigger misstep than Bruno and The Dictator, and its box office should reflect. However, Brothers Grimsby follows Nobby (Cohen), a British lower soccer hooligan, who discovers his long lost brother is a Bond-like spy (played by Mark Strong), as Nobby soon becomes a thorn in his brother's side, screwing up missions as the two must team up for some reason to defeat some enemy for some reason or another. Sporting a pre-release RT score of only 54%, The Brothers Grimsby manages to be critical step-down from Borat (92%), The Dictator (57%), and even Bruno (68%).
As mentioned, Sacha Baron Cohen hasn't starred in a comedy of his own doing since 2012's The Dictator ($17M/$59M), which itself was a far fall from his 2009 attempt at comedy with Bruno ($30M/$60M). Having been delayed twice by Sony (initially from its prime summer spot of last June), one wouldn't be surprised to assume the confidence in this comedy is shaky at best. A spoof of Bond spy flicks, Brothers Grimsby represents the lower tier of parodies, invoking memories of such gems, like Scary Movie 5 ($14M/$32M) or the since-cult classic, MacGruber ($4M/$8M). Sacha Baron Cohen has proven himself to be a worthy addition to both comedies and dramas alike, in supporting roles, but it seems that his time as the centerpiece in a comedy is now dead and gone.
The Prediction - The Brothers Grimsby, another in the line of failed genre-parodying comedies, should open to only $10M, grabbing 3 Top 5 points, notching maybe 1 PTA point, and shuffling itself off to the bargain bin at Wal-Mart with a domestic total of only $20M. For $8 in March-May Leagues, it is cheap, but for good reason. The chance to breakout is pretty slim, so I personally wouldn't touch this, but if you believe in the redemptive power of the comedy superduo of Sacha and Mark Strong, be my guest.
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The Young Messiah (Focus) - Anddddd, with Easter season in full swing soon, are we surprised that more big screen adaptations of various Jesus stories are hitting screens nationwide in the run-up to the holiday? If religious parents haven't dragged their disinterested children to see Risen yet, they may be soon dragging ass to The Young Messiah, as Focus is nailing it into almost 1,800 theaters nationwide. Unlike Risen, Sony's Jesus tale told from the viewpoint of two non-believers in Biblical times, The Young Messiah tells the story of Jesus as a young child, as he learns of just who he is and must use his faith to protect himself and his mother from those who want to rid the Earth of a person so powerful (with the fish and the wine-changing and burning bushes). The film is devoid of recognizable faces, other than sure-to-be-killed Sean Bean, and the film hasn't been screened for critics, although that should have little effect on its box office prospects.
After the Christian boom of 2014, which was the trifecta of Son of God ($25M/$59M), Heaven Is For Real ($22M/$91M), and God's Not Dead ($9M/$60M), Hollywood has tried their hardest to recreate these dollar signs, mostly to disappointing results. Sony's Risen, from two weeks ago, could only muster a $11M opening, and that was with a marketing plan at least twice the size of The Young Messiah's. Perhaps Focus is laser targeting its money to churches only, but outside of that, the movie has absolutely zero traction. It's hard to gauge whether churchgoers will more interested in kiddie Jesus than traditional Jesus, but at least with this film, I'm sure they won't be.
The Prediction - The Young Messiah isn't too dependent on a big opening, as they're probably betting a nice run throughout March and April, but even that strategy will work to amount to little to nothing. It will open to $8M, grabbing perhaps a single PTA point, snatching 2 PTA points, and totaling out at $19M - for its cost of $8 in March-May BO Leagues, I don't think I have to be too convincing to have everyone leave this title off their slate this season.
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The Perfect Match (LGF) - Pulling up the rear this weekend, both in terms of box office potential and theater count, is the urban (read: Black) romantic comedy, The Perfect Match, being tossed into roughly 900 theaters by Lionsgate, the studio built on cheap horror flicks and black audiences who love Tyler Perry. The film centers on a playboy, Charlie (Think Like A Man's Terrence J), who's adept at the single life of love-em-and-leave-em until he meets his female counterpoint in Eva (pop singer Cassie), as they embark on a emotion-less sex fling. Of course, this being the kind of movie you think it is, Charlie starts to want more from Eva, as the tables turn as Charlie begins to experience the rejection he's been on the other side of for all of his life. The Perfect Match stars a who's who of B-list stars from the independent Black film crowd, with Donald Fasion, Paula Patton, Kali Hawk, singer Brandy, rapper French Montana, and Orange Is The New Black's Dascha Polanco. Unsurprisingly, it too has been withheld from critic's eyes so far, and much like The Young Messiah, its audience knows what it wants and wouldn't be swayed by reviews anyhow.
Lionsgate has pulled this game before, targeting an urban romantic film to the inner city and major hubs of African-Americans (Atlanta, Washington D.C., Houston, NYC, etc) with a small theater count. They did the same with Addicted ($7M/$17M) in fall 2014, as it only opened in 846 theaters - also managing 3 PTA points its opening against bigger fare like Gone Girl and Dracula Untold. With Addicted being a serious drama about sex addiction, a lighter affair such as The Perfect Match should be able to do just as well, aiming at the same audience. With a large portion of its cast being known in the music realm (French Montana, and Brandy, to a lesser extent), that might be able to drive up its numbers just a notch, as typical rom-com fans may be interested because of its stars.
The Prediction - The Perfect Match won't be inhibited by its soft theater count, as it wouldn't do much better in double the theaters - Lionsgate knows how to target their audiences successfully. It will open to $6M, with zero Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, and total amounting to right around $15M. It won't make or break any slate, especially this season, but if you find yourself with $5 extra in your BO League, you could do a lot worse than this.
This week's limited releases...
Eye In The Sky (Bleecker Street) - Deep in the bowels of military compounds all over America, drone operators fly unmanned tiny airplanes across the globe, acting as undetectable surveillance high above persons of interest, and even occasionally, as targeting systems. That quandary is at the heart of Eye In The Sky, as done operator Steve (Breaking Bad's Aaron Paul) accidentally stumbles upon a highly sought-after terrorist in the midst of setting another terrorist attack in motion. His superiors must decide whether to strike the target immediately to prevent another attack, but also sacrificing children who surround the house the terrorist is currently loading up with explosives. The film also stars Helen Mirren, Alan Rickman, and Captain Phillips' Barkhad Abdi, and is currently rocking a very respectable 89% on RT.
Bleecker Street, one of the newest studios on the block, will be releasing Eye In The Sky into a prime 5 theaters this weekend, and even with a military bend, its great reviews and stellar cast should make it the top choice for arthouse audiences and movie buffs alike. The studio had great luck with I'll See You In My Dreams last summer, releasing it into 7 theaters, and this past Oscar season, pushing Trumbo into 5 theaters worked out pretty well, PTA wise. Of course, it had to face limited juggernauts like Spotlight, Brooklyn, and Room - this definitely pushed Trumbo into also-ran status. Eye In The Sky shouldn't have that problem, and for $4 in March-May Ultimate Leagues, it's as good as a PTA pick you'll get this season.
Hello, My Name Is Doris (Roadside Attractions) - And pulling into the gross old lady banging Schmidt from New Girl station, we have Hello, My Name Is Doris, sliding into 4 theaters from Roadside. Starring Sally Field, the film centers around Doris, a lonely sixty-something who's inspired by a self-help seminar to pursue what she wants, and somehow ends up in a relationship with a man half her age, John (Max Greenfield). Rocking a decent 84% on RT, Doris may indeed be first choice for older audiences, as they tend to love light, airy romances starring actresses they know from their yesteryear. In 4 theaters, it'd be prime for PTA potential, but outside of senior citizens, it's hard to imagine many will turn out for Sally Field at this point in her career. Especially with a bevy of adult fare, both in wide and limited release at the moment; it'll run you $3 and if you can spare a buck, go for one of the many $4 picks - they're almost guaranteed to be a better pick for you.
Remember (A24) - And it wouldn't be a complete PTA weekend without the obligatory Holocaust film, this time courtesy of renown arthouse director Atom Egoyan. Remember stars Christopher Plummer as a Holocaust survivor suffering from dementia who teams up with another Auschwitz survivor (Martin Landau) to try to find the people responsible for the murder of his family in Nazi-run Germany, and comes from A24, fresh off two Oscar wins earlier this month. I couldn't locate an accurate screen count for Remember, but A24 rarely releases anything in over 10 theaters, excluding their two wide releases. Judging from its not-so-good RT of 66% and lukewarm reviews, it won't be much of a factor this weekend, if Doris or Eye In The Sky have anything to say about it. It's rightfully priced at $3, but don't strain yourself to make room for it - even if it manages a single point, it'll be a one-off.
I Can Confirm The Animals From Zootopia Are What Keep John Goodman In His Basement:
1. Zootopia - $48M
2. 10 Cloverfield Lane - $22M
3. The Brothers Grimsby - $10M
4. London Has Fallen - $9M
5. Deadpool/The Young Messiah - $8M
-The Perfect Match - $5M
PTA: Eye In The Sky, Zootopia, Hello, My Name Is Doris, 10 Cloverfield Lane, The Perfect Match
Next week the train doesn't stop as we barrel towards the summer, this weekend bringing a tentpole sequel (The Divergent Series: Allegiant) and the 3rd Christian drama in 4 weeks (Miracles From Heaven). We'll also FOUR limited releases, with Midnight Special, The Little Prince, The Bronze, and Krishna.
Watch This Instead...
If you're wondering who that 3rd person is in all of the 10 Cloverfield Lane advertising, that's John Gallagher, Jr. If you were over Cloverfield as soon as you walked out of the theater with a pounding headache in 2008, but are intrigued by how this no-name actor could stand up to John Goodman and Mary Elizabeth Winstead, then you should check out Short Term 12. Gallagher plays the love interest of newly minted Oscar winner Brie Larson in this group home drama about a young woman, Grace (Larson), who strives to help out her charges as best she can, while also dealing with her own demons stemming from her upbringing in a group home herself. As my favorite film of 2013, it's hard to think of a career-defining performance better than this, including her great turn in Room. Gallagher nails his supporting role as her boyfriend, who must deal with Grace's demons as best he can while also looking to protect her from herself. Three years after its release, it still sits at an amazing 99% on RT and is available on DVD/Blu-Ray, US Netflix, and our VUDU account.
