That would be three weekends at #1 for Deadpool, now sitting pretty at $285 domestic and will be crossing the $300M barrier nobody thought it would come close to this weekend. It was rightly the second highest priced title for the Feb-April Leagues, at $30, and for $300M+, 15 Top 5 points (and counting), 14 PTA points (and counting), and a current 8.5 IMDb (yep, that's Top 100 territory), it's hard to not consider $30 a bargain. If you opted for anything else to complement Batman Vs Superman, you're already deep in the hole. For the openers, Gerard Butler's first of two movies, Gods of Egypt, in as many weeks flopped, taking 2nd place with only $14M (on a $140M budget). The ensemble actioner Triple 9 beat out Eddie The Eagle by only $25K to take 5th place with $6.1M, keeping Eddie from ever notching a Top 5 point. Seeing as how bad both films did in their opening, it's hard to get excited for Triple 9's "win" over Eddie The Eagle.
Deadpool did well enough in its third weekend to recapture the Top PTA spot, regulating Oscar nominee Embrace of The Serpent down to 2nd (4 PTA points). The three openers made their awful debuts a bit better, by filling in the last three PTA spots in the same order they placed in Top 5 competition.
This week's wide releases...
Zootopia (BVD) - Filling in the early-March animated opening slot that's becoming almost as ubiquitous as the early-November animated opening slot with each year is Disney Animation's latest caper, Zootopia, anthropomorphizing its way into over 3,700 2D and 3D theaters this weekend. In this world populated by walking and talking CGI animals playing human, a rookie rabbit cop, Judy Hopps (voiced by Ginnifer Goodwin) inadvertently teams up with a sly con artist fox, Nick Wilde (voiced by Jason Bateman), to bring down a conspiracy that threatens the delicate balance of Zootopia. It's been getting amazing pre-release reviews, as with 33 reviews in so far, Zootopia's rocking the Pixar-like RT score of 100%! In Disney's very anti-Dreamworks way of voice casting, celebrity takes a back seat to the best voice - the cast includes Idris Elba, Jenny Slate, JK Simmons, Octavia Spencer, Bonnie Hunt, and Alan Tudyk.
With the massive exception that is Mars Needs Moms, Disney Animation has been on a stunning win streak with their original films, both critically and commercially. From Wreck-It Ralph to Frozen to Big Hero 6 to Tangled, Disney Animation aims for a respectable middle ground between Dreamworks' slapstick, pop-culture heavy humor to Pixar's life affirming almost adult-based dramedy. And audiences have responded positively, especially when their work is almost universally praised, like Wreck-It Ralph ($49M/$189M) or Tangled ($48M/$200M). Zootopia definitely has the praise to be in the same ballpark, and its March release date has given way to such family hits as The Croods ($43M/$187M) or The Lorax ($70M/$214M). With that kind of reception that will surely translate into incredible holds throughout the month, it's almost impossible to imagine a scenario where Zootopia doesn't join Disney Animation's esteemed box office resume.
The Prediction - With a prime release date (combined with a wide open children's/family market) and critical praise that Disney marketing knows how to ride into the sunset, Zootopia will be one of the few surefire hits of the Feb-April season. It can open to $59M, amass 23 Top 5 points, 10 PTA points, and end up with a total north of $213M. For $30 In Feb-April Leagues ($33 in March-May), you'll need it if you've skipped Deadpool and in the later season, it's the perfect complement to either Batman Vs Superman or Captain America: Civil War. You know by now if you need Zootopia in your life.
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London Has Fallen (Focus) - When Gerard Butler took over the White House to defend it against terrorists hellbent on murdering the President back in 2013, did anyone ever imagine that film would gross almost $100M, double the final gross of its thematic twin of that year - White House Down, AND get a sequel where everyone returns to reprise their roles? The answer, in good Will Smith fashion, is "Oh Hell NO". Well, we're all dumb and so we have Focus with London Has Fallen, fish-and-chipping into a little over 3,200 theaters this weekend. Now the head of the Secret Service after his heroics, Mike Banning (Butler) leads the President (Aaron Eckhart) to London, to the British Prime Minister's funeral, but he soon discovers a massive plot to kill all of the world's leaders there. After a massive attack on the funeral, the two go on the run as the terrorist behind all of the chaos hunts them down in the streets of London, bent on broadcasting the President's torture and murder. Rated R just like its predecessor, London Has Fallen is full of gruff vague-Scottish quips and machine-gun fire - it's being withheld from critics, but that won't have much of an impact on its opening, as the same was done for Olympus Has Fallen.
In a good bit of counter-programming, Focus was wise to offset the wholesomeness of Zootopia with a R-rated action flick with a prebuilt audience, due to Olympus' near-$100M total 3 years ago. Focus tried the tactic five years when they opened hit-girl drama Hanna against the animated Hop, but that didn't work as well, mostly due to Hanna's oddball tone and lack of wide stream appeal. With Gerard Butler reprising the role of his highest grossing non-300 action film, the appeal is already there and it should perform more in line with Public Enemies ($25M/$97M), another R-rated crime thriller that faced off against Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs at the time. Even in March, this kind of counter-programming works well - namely, in 2011 when another Aaron Eckhart action movie, Battle: Los Angeles ($35M/$83M) surprised the world when it easily took down Mars Needs Moms ($6M/$21M).
With their main demo having already seen Deadpool three or four times by now, Focus is hoping London Has Fallen is enough to pull in childless adults and teens looking to get their action fill, especially since all of them skipped last week's Triple 9.
The Prediction - Action sequels typically build upon the original, and while it's hard to imagine that scenario here, London Has Fallen should end up coming pretty close to the opening and total of its parent film. The film will open to $24M, snatch up 7 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, and cross the finish line around $62M. It'll run you $15 in both Feb-April BO and March-May BO Leagues, and while it's the best option at its price point for the former (unless you really believe in The Boss), there's simply no room for it in the latter. Squeeze it in if you can.
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Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (Paramount) - Tina Fey, hot off her surprise Christmastime mid-size hit, Sisters, looks to jump on the big screen just three months later - this time from Paramount with Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, woman-driver reversing into roughly 2,300 theaters this weekend. Based on the memoirs of a real life female reporter, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is the story of Kim Barker, a journalist unfulfilled with her life at home in America who unexpectedly jumps at the chance to become a field reporter in Afghanistan and Pakistan at the height of the Middle East conflict. She soon learns what it means to be a foreigner in a strange land, a woman in a place where femininity is almost illegal, and a American in a land where America is the most hated country in the world. Written by Fey's frequent collaborator Robert Carlock (30 Rock, The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) and from the director's of Crazy, Stupid, Love, the dramedy also stars Margot Robbie, Martin Freeman, Billy Bob Thornton, and Alfred Molina.
Studios have learned the lesson the hard way not to inject their films with a sense of the Middle East conflict. Unless your film is rah-rah-Go America (see: American Sniper), audiences have repeatedly passed on films centered on the war, regardless of genre. From dramas (In The Valley of Elah - $1.5M/$6M) to action (Green Zone - $14M/$35M) to comedy (The Men Who Stare At Goats - $12M/$32M), involving your characters in the Osama/Saddam times is not a good outlook for its box office opportunity. The best comp for Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is not one in the middle of the desert, but the family dramedy she led in 2014: This Is Where I Leave You ($11M/$34M). Neither film are outright comedies, opting to deliver messages and emotion mixed with some light adult-aimed humor to soften the blow.
Marketing has been light on WTF, as its title wasn't final and a trailer wasn't released until roughly 3 months before its release. A quick and dirty ad campaign won't carry the film to any new levels and it'll have to settle for being a modest success for the studio.
The Prediction - Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is another notch in Tina Fey's belt of these low-grossing, yet still seen successfully, films that she's quickly building her big screen career upon. It will open to $9M, grab 2 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, and see a fairly quick exit from multiplexes with $20M to its name. For $9 in Feb-April BO Leagues, it's a toss-up between it and The Brother Grimsby if you still have the money to spend; in the March-May Leagues, there's no room at all for it, so don't risk it there.
This week's limited releases...
Knight of Cups (Broad Green Pictures) - The master of sweeping landscape shots and actors running through fields, Terrence Malick, is back with a new film, Knight of Cups, only three years after his last one. Quintessentially Malick in its vagueness, it's a bit hard to tell what exactly Knight of Cups is about - but from what I can gather, it focuses on a writer (Christian Bale) tired of the Hollywood lifestyle looks to regain his life force via a bunch of adventures with six different women. Joining Bale in the flick is a smorgasbord of respected, talented actresses: Natalie Portman, Cate Blanchett, Freida Pinto, and Teresa Palmer, along with Antonio Banderas, Jason Clarke, Nick Offerman, Dane DeHaan, and Fabio. But who knows who Malick will famously leave on the cutting room floor this time.
Last time a Malick filmed opened years after it was filmed in limited release, Magnolia put out To The Wonder into 17 theaters, but could only manage 3 total PTA points. Malick definitely has arthouse fans, judging from the box office and Oscar love for The Tree of Life back in 2011, but these star-studded films of his seem to get dumped by second-rate distributors. Broad Green will be playing it in a prime 4 locations this week, but with a double digit expansion and a crowded PTA field coming up, its chances beyond that are slim. It should pick up 3-4 this weekend, but I can't see any past that. For $4/$3, its one weekend play makes the price too high to risk it.
The Other Side of The Door (Fox) - A last minute dump into 500 theaters, Fox's release of The Other Side of The Door isn't exactly a traditional limited opening, nor is it a PTA goldmine. The horror film is a typical mother-raises-dead-child-from-the-dead-using-Black-Magic-before-it-backfires story that's simply been done to death. Starring real A-listers like Sarah Wayne Callies (The Walking Dead) and Jeremy Sisto (Clueless...yes, that Clueless), it's impossible to fathom that the film could have any effect on our game at all. These horror dumps end up in second run theaters and do pretty dismal numbers all around. It could cost $1 in any League, and I still couldn't recommend it on a healthy conscience. Don't you dare.
It's Guns Vs Bun(nie)s For The Weekend of March 4th-6th:
1. Zootopia - $59M
2. London Has Fallen - $24M
3. Deadpool - $16M
4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot - $9M
5. Gods of Egypt - $6M
PTA: Zootopia, Knight of Cups, London Has Fallen, Deadpool, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Next week, we have an impossibly crowded pool of openers, with 4 wide releases (10 Cloverfield Lane, The Brothers Grimsby, The Perfect Match, and The Young Messiah) and 3 limiteds (Hello, My Name Is Doris, Eye In The Sky, and Remember).
This Week In Box Office History...
1998 - Twelve weeks after its modest opening, Titanic was still King of the Box Office on this weekend 18 years ago. It held onto #1 with $17M, beating out the big opener, U.S. Marshals, by less than $1M. Of course, Titanic would go on to gross over $600M and hold onto all of its box office records until Avatar came along, which was then bested domestically by Star Wars: The Force Awakens just three months ago (to contrast, Avatar was in 5th place by this time and Star Wars was in 11th place last weekend). Even with such a modest opening, the esteemed Wesley Snipes-Tommy Lee Jones team-up, U.S. Marshals, held on enough throughout the spring to end up in the Top 40 finishers of 1998. Also, The Big Lebowski opened this weekend, but at #6 and only $5.5M, nobody really cared until it hit VHS/DVD later on.
Do you guys think Zootopia can break $60M this weekend?
