Deadpool held a sorta respectable amount in its second weekend, falling 57% to gross $56M over the three day. Through 10 days, it's at a ridiculous $236M - at least double what anyone thought it could pull in in total before that massive opening. It should level off in the next two weeks and $300M is guaranteed pretty much. Out of the lackluster openings, the least lackluster was the Biblical drama Risen, good enough for $11M and 3rd place behind Kung Fu Panda 3. The other two new releases couldn't even break double digits, with The Witch scooping up $8.8M and the Jesse Owens flick Race with only $7.5M. It must be late February, eh? With a Disney cartoon, a Cloverfield sequel, and a giant comic book film coming next month, we just have to endure one more weekend of awfulness until pre-summer begins!
Embrace of The Serpent made me look like a goddamn idiot, opening in 3 theaters for $28K PTA and a full 5 points this weekend. The Lady In The Van is finally out of the PTA picture as it just missed the Top 5 by only roughly $300. Deadpool, The Witch, Risen, and Kung Fu Panda 3 all made Maggie Smith their bitch - strictly PTA speaking, of course.
This week's wide releases...
Gods of Egypt (Lionsgate/Summit) - No movie star has seen such shifts in genre in one career than Gerard Butler in the past decade, from romantic comedy to animated children's film to to poorly done comedy to even musicals (yeah, he was in The Phantom of The Opera). This weekend sees him back in the swords-and-sandals/fantasy action playing field with Gods of Egypt, a Clash of the Titans-wannabe that Lionsgate/Summit will be pushing into over 3,100 2D and 3D theaters. Presumably based on some Egyptian folklore, the film follows mortal Bek (Brenton Thwaites, Maleficent) who brings banished God Horus (Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones) his eye and they team up (as you do) to bring down Set (Butler), the God of Darkness, who's taken over the throne of Egypt for himself from Horus years earlier. It makes less sense now that I've typed it out, so the creative team has made sure everyone knows there's dragons and giant mythical beasts so audiences won't be bored to death. It's being held from critics until the very last minute, so I think we all knows what that means.
It means it probably blows. Which isn't surprising, as most of these 300 knockoffs have failed to live up to the lofty expectations the surprise hit set back in March 2007. From Clash of the Titans (2010) ($62M/$163M) to Immortals ($32M/$83M) to Wrath of the Titans ($33M/$83M) to Hercules ($29M/$72M) - and yes, even to 300's own sequel, Rise of An Empire ($45M/$106M) - these films have been met with scorn and scathing reviews. However, based on their respective box office runs, it's not hard to believe that Lionsgate/Summit truly believes they'll be able to recoup their $140M budget (especially overseas). Of course, all of these opened in prime release dates, from early March to the middle of the summer to even pre-Thanksgiving. While Gods of Egypt does have the benefit of the genre, opening on the last weekend in February is a huge hindrance here. Still operating in the shadow of the massive Deadpool, Gods of Egypt will open lower than any of its comparables, but given the circumstance, it'll at least do better than any of last weekend's (and this weekend's) offerings.
The Prediction - Gods of Egypt will ride its CGI dragons to a middling opening weekend of $18M, gaining 5 Top 5 points overall, 3 PTA points, and a total right around $39M. It runs for $10 in February-April BO Leagues and if you still have the money to spare, it's probably the safest bet you have left - I wouldn't trust WTF or The Brothers Grimsby to outgross Gerard Butler this time around.
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Eddie The Eagle (Fox) - Inspirational sports movies come a dime a dozen, and now they've even expanded into historical ski jumping tales. Fox will be releasing Eddie The Eagle, downsloping its way into 2,00 theaters this weekend. The film is the true story of Eddie Edwards (Taron Egerton, Kingsman), an Olympic hopeful plagued by childhood injuries all his life, as he selects ski-jumping as his best chance at his lifelong dream of becoming an Olympic medalist. Seeking out a former ski-jumping gold medalist to coach him (played by Hugh Jackman), the two must take Eddie from novice to expert slopesman before the 1988 Winter Olympics. It's gotten a huge pre-release push, via advanced screenings and prominent Super Bowl shilling by Drew Brees, and its gotten a very respectable 71% on RT so far, so one wouldn't be surprised if the Eagle soars unexpectedly.
Except it won't. Inspiritional lesser known sports films can be productive at the box office, especially if they're based on a true story - like Coach Carter ($24M/$67M) or Moneyball ($19M/$75M). But there's little precedent for a movie based solely on skiing, and ski-jumping at that - a subset of a subset of the sports world. You might as well have made a movie around curling. And the story of Eddie Edwards is not one that's well known in America; Edwards is British and the 88 Games were held in Canada. To add onto its dim hopes, the producers of Eddie The Eagle are making sure you know that they also helped make Kingsman - the R-rated action film that everyone loved last year. They even brought the star of Kingsman to star in Eddie The Eagle - it's too bad nobody realizes that as they've stuck Taron in huge googles, glasses, and ski gear. Instead, marketing seems to focus on Hugh Jackman's involvement: the movie star that can't open a film without his adamantium claws.
The Prediction - Eddie The Eagle has almost nothing going for it (hell, the next Winter Olympics - which would've been a great tie-in for the marketing - isn't for two years). It will open to barely $7M, gain 1 Top 5 point, 1 PTA point, and ride the ski lift to about $19M. For $7 in Feb-April BO Leagues, there's not too many alternatives in this price range - but if you're on the fence about Eagle, I might suggest the opening weekend of Mother's Day for $2 less. At least that should be able to break the $20M barrier.
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Triple 9 (Open Road) - Much in the vein of The Town or Heat comes another star studded, guns a-blazing heist film that's sure to please the bloodthirsty crowds that have already Deadpool'd themselves out by now. Open Road is unleashing onto us Triple 9, shotgun blasting into 2,200 theaters. From the unlikely director of Lawless, The Proposition, and The Road, Triple 9 follows a gang of criminals who team up with corrupt cops to pull off the biggest heist this side of Ocean's 11 - only with more blood, headshots, and ski masks (maybe even more than Eddie The Eagle!). It's got the B-list cast from all your wet dreams: Casey Affleck, Anthony Mackie, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Aaron Paul, Woody Harrelson, Teresa Palmer, Michael K Williams, Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman, herself), and in the the biggest surprise of the weekend, Oscar winning actress Kate Winslet. It's only got a pre-release RT of 59%, but given the genre, it's hard to think that will have much impact.
Shoot-em-up heist movies tend to do pretty well, with hits like the aforementioned The Town ($23M/$92M) or Contraband ($24M/$66M). Even the lower budget, no-real-movie-star ones tend to do well enough: Takers ($20M/$57M), Brooklyn's Finest ($13M/$27M), or A Walk Among The Tombstones ($12M/$26M). Open Road even managed to open a high octane, cop action flick with End of Watch ($13M/$41M) four years ago. The ad plan has been simple: watch all these stars you know from other movies lock and load and go on a good ole American, gun-toting bank robbery trip. The mild reviews could tank Triple 9's legs, but it has enough to open well...enough for late February, anyway.
The Prediction - Triple 9 has enough guns for action nuts and enough respected actors to make film buffs take notice; those rabid Kate Winslet fans will be there opening night for sure. It has enough sweet imagery to open to $12M, nabbing 3 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, and run off with $28M when it's all said and done. It would cost you $8 in Feb-April BO Leagues, which is a bit steep for its expectations - the only comparable title that may give you more bang for your buck is The Brothers Grimsby.
This week's limited release...
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny (Netflix) - Yep, 16 years after we got a glimpse of martial arts fights in treetops, we're getting a second, much-longed-after trip to the world of Asians in flow-y robes and hanging from wires. The film will only play in roughly 12 IMAX-only theaters this weekend, which would usually be a pretty good bet for some PTA love. However, seeing as how Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny is being released by streaming giant Netflix...this won't end well. Those dozen theaters will be independently owned, so there will be zero spillover from general audiences hitting up the multiplex this weekend. Especially since they'll be able to watch the movie for free instantly through Netflix the same day - which is why you should avoid CT, HD: SoD at all costs. Beasts of No Nation, Netflix's first attempt at threatical release, couldn't muster up 1 measly PTA point - and that's with excellent reviews and an arthouse friendly plot. Beasts put up a wimpy $1,645 PTA and that's not even enough in this weak PTA field. Skip, skip, skip it (or at least, just watch it at home).
My Uneducated Guesses For The Weekend of February 26th-28th:
1. Deadpool - $29M
2. Gods of Egypt - $18M
3. Triple 9 - $12M
4. Kung Fu Panda 3 - $8M
5. Eddie The Eagle - $7M
PTA: Embrace of The Serpent, Deadpool, Gods of Egypt, Triple 9, Eddie The Eagle
Next week frees us from this two week slump of uninteresting film choices, as we're kicking off March with three new wide releases (Zootopia, London Has Fallen, and Whiskey Tango Foxtrot) and two limited releases (Knight of Cups and The Other Side of The Door).
This Week In Box Office History...
2004 - The last weekend of February rarely gives us anything to write home about...except when famously racist Oscar winner actor/director Mel Gibson decides to tackle the story of Jesus' torture, crucificxion, and resurrection in the most R-rated way possible. Yes, this weekend 12 years ago gave us The Passion of The Christ, just in time for Easter of course. The Passion set the then-February opening record with its $83M OW and for over a decade was the highest grossing R rated movie of all time (before American Sniper and Deadpool). The Biblical snuff film went on to end up as the 3rd highest grossing film of 2004, with a heavenly total of $370M. Holy Moses, indeed.
