Deadpool proved that audiences will show up if everyone involved creatively actually cares about the end product, so much so that the R-rated flick set a new February opening weekend record by pulling in $132M in its first three days ($152M for the 4-day holiday). It was easily star Ryan Reynolds' best debut and was the highest opening for a first-time director ever. Not only did Deadpool just do well for a February film, it did fucking well period. It's currently the 7th highest comic book movie opening ever, besting other, more established superhero movies like Captain America: Winter Soldier, X-Men: The Last Stand, Man of Steel, Spider-Man, and both of the first two Iron Man movies. A total north of $350M is definitely in play for Mr. Pool, especially with a weak February and March coming up. The other openers couldn't fare as well in the Deadpool vacuum, as How To Be Single posted a $18M OW - but even that was better than Zoolander 2's horrendous $13M showing. That's almost a third of the opening of Dumb & Dumber To and half that of Anchorman 2 - in other words, Stiller and Wilson will need to go back to the drawing board.
In the PTA race, obviously Deadpool easily took #1, leaving the remains for How To Be Single, Kung Fu Panda 3, Lady In The Van, and yes, even Zoolander 2. None of the limited releases even came close to sneaking a PTA point.
This week's wide releases...
Race (Focus) - Coming in on the tail end of the semi-trend of biopics of famous Black Americans, Race is the true story of Olympic runner Jesse Owens as Focus pushes it into a little over 2,300 theaters this weekend. The films focuses on the 1936 Olympic Games in Germany, where Jesse Owens represented America in the sprint and long jump events amidst Adolf Hitler's wishes to prove his Aryan supremacy over Jews, Blacks, and other non-Aryan races. Of course, Hitler was put in his little-mustached place after Owens won four Gold Medals that year over his German competitors; notably, Louis Zamperini was also a competitor at the 36 Games, where he won gold and was personally commended by Hitler (the focus of 2014's Unbroken). Relative newcomer Stephan James stars as Owens, while former SNL-er Jason Sudeikis plays Owens' trainer, Larry Snyder. The film also features Carissa Van Houten, William Hurt, Amanda Crew, and Jeremy Irons - it currently sits a pretty disheartening 58% on RT however.
Focus is hoping that people will ignore the tepid reviews and will come out for the legend of Jesse Owens itself - much like how audiences showed up for recent biopics of famous Black Americans, like Straight Outta Compton ($60M/$161M), 42 ($27M/$93M), or Lee Daniel's The Butler ($24M/$116M). Hell, even a showing similar to that of the mid-range successes would be a boon for Focus, as they can only hope for numbers akin to Selma ($11M/$52M) or Get On Up ($13M/$30M). With its pretty lukewarm reviews (although critics are praising James' performance) and soft marketing push, Race will have to settle for Deadpool spill-over.
The Prediction - As famous as Jesse Owens' performance against Hitler's Super Olympic team is, Race won't be able to give the legendary athlete his due, box office wise. It will open to $9M, manage 2 Top 5 points, 3 PTA points, and will sputter out around $21M. For $8 in a season dominated by tentpoles, don't waste any extra funds on Race.
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Risen (Sony) - Another pre-Easter weekend, another Christian drama to appeal to churchgoers across the country. Risen is the latest adaptation of the Biblical story of Jesus, this time telling it through the eyes of two Roman non-believers who set out to disprove the legend of Jesus' resurrection following the crucifixion and what-have-you. Sony, quickly become the home of pandering religious films, is releasing Risen and putting it into the widest release of the weekend in almost 3,000 theaters. It stars Joseph Fiennes and Tom Felton as Clavius and Lucuis, the doubtful Romans, and oddly is directed and written by the director of Waterworld and Tristan + Isolde. So not the best pedigree...
There has of course been an extremely high uptick in Christian films over the past few years, but only a few have actually focused on the actual Biblical stories that feature Jesus or Mary or Joseph. The main comparison Sony is hoping for is 2014's Son of God ($25M/$59M), although it seems that the sheen on these Jesus flicks have worn out by now - the more popular Christian films typically feature crises of faith in present-day settings. See: Heaven Is For Real, Courageous, War Room, and Fireproof.
The Prediction - Biblical stories typically aren't exactly lighting the box offices alight these days, and it looks like Risen won't be the exception to the rule that Son of God was two years ago. It will open to $11M, garnering 5 Top 5 points, 4 PTA points, and slinking out of theaters with a cume of $27M. For $8 in Box Office leagues, it's a better pick than Race, but could be replaced by similarly priced Grimsby, WTF, or Triple 9.
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The Witch (A24) - A24, a young studio that specializes in platform, critically acclaimed releases, looks to change their pattern up this week by releasing The Witch into 1,800 theaters immediately - their widest release in company history. The horror film is set in 1630s New England, as a family is slowly torn apart by witches and black magic and general spooky stuff that The Village couldn't get right. Picked up at Sundance last year, The Witch has continually impressed critics and is currently at a fantastic 88% (especially fantastic for horror).
Lower budget, auteur-driven horror films have been becoming popular over the last year or so, seen mostly by the rapturous receptions and impressive limited release box office to two in particular: 2014's The Babadook ($964K in only 80 theaters) and last year's It Follows ($3M/$14M). The Babadook found most of its audience post-threatical and It Follows piggybacked on great limited word of mouth, so it's hard to gauge whether The Witch can make due being pushed out so wide so fast. Add that to the fact the Puritan horror isn't a genre that's known for its box office chances, or really known at all. There's The Village and Sleepy Hollow, and maybe Crimson Peak? None of which are apt comparisons for The Witch.
The Prediction - A24 has relied on free social media marketing to promote The Witch, and that has not proven to be enough to propel such a hard sell as a slow burn, period horror film. With its no-name cast, The Witch will open to only $6M, notching zero Top 5 or PTA points, and will most likely top out at $18M. For only $4 in Box Office leagues, however, it's probably the best bargain for a wide release in the entire season. And given horror's propensity to surprise, it's most likely worth the risk of a measly $4.
This week's limited release...
Embrace of The Serpent (Oscilloscope) - Oscilloscope has continually failed to produce a film with any serious PTA potential (or actual PTA points for that matter) outside of last fall's A Second Mother (5 PTA points). Their films do not find an audience, and it's hard to believe that Embrace of The Serpent will buck that trend., even if it was nominated for this year's Best Foreign Film Oscar (we learned that lesson last week with A War). The black and white film follows a Amazonian shaman who, together with two foreign scientists, continues to search the Amazon for a special sacred healing plant over 40 years. Even with its fantastic reviews (97% on RT) and great theater count (1 theater in LA), Embrace of the Serpent probably won't even be able to crack this weekend's super soft PTA race. For $3, stick around for any of the upcoming promising PTA picks later in the season, like Miles Ahead, Eye In The Sky, or Demolition.
This weekend of February 19th-21st is Deadpool and everything else:
1. Deadpool - $66M
2. Risen - $11M
3. Kung Fu Panda 3 - $10.5M
4. Race - $9M
5. How To Be Single - $8M
PTA: Deadpool, Risen, Race, The Witch, Lady In The Van
Next week gives us another trio of real late-February gems, with Gods of Egypt, Triple 9, and Eddie The Eagle. We'll also have limited release Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny.
Watch This Instead...
If like me, Race looks incredibly boring and cliched to you, but you need your weekly Jason Sudeikis fix, toss aside those worn Horrible Bosses DVDs. You may want to check out his incredibly funny and heartwarming romantic comedy from last fall, Sleeping With Other People. Starring Sudeikis and Alison Brie, the film follows a pair of best friends who after losing their virginity to each other in college, meet up again unexpectedly 10 years later in a sex addicts meeting. Together, they plow their way through New York City's single scene, looking for love and sex in continually the wrong places. Co-starring Adam Scott, Amanda Peet, Natasha Lyonne, and The League's Jason Mantzoukas, the film was well-liked by critics and manages to subvert the genre while still staying true to it's obvious When Harry Met Sally roots. It's on DVD and available on the RS Vudu account.
