TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

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TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

When it's Po vs. Co(ens), always bet on black...and white.

That sentence aside, last weekend was a coup for Po and The Furious Five as they easily bested the Coen Brother's latest in their second weekend, dropping 48% to a $21M Super Bowl weekend. Hail, Caesar!, the latest all-star absurd comedy from the directors, bombed harder than Cam Newton as it could only muster a $11M opening, a C- Cinemascore, and a lowly Rotten Tomatoes score of 79% (low for the Coens, of course). It managed to only gross a little over half of their last star-studded comedy, Burn After Reading - $19M in September of 2008. Burn After Reading went on to total $60M - something Hail Caesar won't be doing in this lifetime. The other two releases fared even worse: the latest Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Choice was good for $6M and the much anticipated Jane Austen horror comedy Pride & Prejudice & Zombies tricked $5M worth of teenagers and unsuspecting old women into buying a ticket.

Mirroring the Top 5 results, Kung Fu Panda 3 and Hail Caesar finished 1st and 2nd in the PTA race. Lady In The Van still made itself worth the price tag, snagging another 3 PTA points, putting it at 17 points so far. The Force Awakens took advantage of the shit limited releases and snuck itself 2 more PTA points, and something called Eisenstein In Guanajuato took the last point. Luckily, with 3 wide releases and 4 limiteds, we'll see some much needed fresh blood in this category.


This week's wide releases...

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Deadpool (Fox) - Coming right out of the gate for what many believe will be 2016's biggest opening so far, Fox's long-awaited Deadpool solo movie is getting a huge push into over 3,500 regular and IMAX theaters this weekend. Hoping to atone for their crime against humanity that was the Deadpool we got in X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Fox isn't skimping on its marketing budget with Deadpool - they need everyone to know this is the Deadpool film we have all wanted for years - decades, even. The film follows the origins of the Merc With A Mouth, from smart-ass cancer victim to smart-ass unkillable Spandex-clad superhero, but with a face that looks like an avocado fucked an older, uglier avocado. Wade Wilson, diagnosed with late stage brain cancer, undergoes an experimental treatment that ruins his fuckability factor but leaves him accelerated healing powers. He puts the famed red costume on and becomes Deadpool, who must track down the scientist who did the surgery with ill intentions and has kidnapped Wilson's girlfriend. The runtime between those two events look to be chock full of dick jokes, decapitations, and DMX songs. The film also stars Morena Baccarin, Ed Skrein, Stefan Kapicic (as Colussus!), Brianna Hildebrand (as Negasonic Teenage Warhead), and TJ Miller. Currently sitting with a respectable 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and fantastic word of mouth from press screenings, it's hard to imagine Deadpool not looking to set records this weekend.

It's hard to find any comparison to Deadpool. Have there been R-rated superhero adaptations before? Sure, but they've all been largely dark and violent, serious in their gloom. Looking at you, Watchmen ($55M/$107M). There's been Kick-Ass ($19M/$48M), sure, but that was an infinitely smaller film, both in budget and in scope. Turns out the best comparison came out on this very weekend last year: Kingsman: The Secret Service ($36M/$128M). With it comic uber-violence, Kingsman was a surprise hit for Fox last year and me thinks it's no coincidence they dated Deadpool for the same time frame. Plus Deadpool has easily doubled Kingsman's marketing reach, from its DMX-infused trailers to its emoji billboards all over Los Angeles - Fox knows what audience they're aiming at, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Deadpool double Kingsman's opening numbers.

Of course, Deadpool's X-Men ties have not gone ignored; legendary X-Men member Colussus has been as omnipotent as the Merc himself in advertising. He apparently plays a sidekick role to Deadpool, and it's known that both will be included in Fox's upcoming X-Men multiverse. It's even rumored that one will have a cameo in the this summer's X-Men: Apocalypse. This connection is going to boost ticket sales even further, as connected universes are of course the way to go with comic book films.



The Prediction - Deadpool, with its teenager humor, light-hearted violence (is there a such thing?), and X-Men connection, is looking to approach the February record - $85M, held by Twilight porn fanfic Fifty Shades of Grey. But I'll go conservative and see an opening of $65M, a total of 16 Top 5 points, 11 PTA points, and a box office topping out at $175M. Deadpool is the most expensive title of the season, but it's worth it - nothing will come close to these numbers until Batman Vs Superman. For $25, you need this on your slate if you hope to compete by season's end.

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Zoolander 2 (Paramount) - Following in the footsteps of Dumb and Dumber To and Netflix's upcoming Fuller House, Zoolander 2 is another step along the path of 90s nostalgia that Hollywood seems to be digging up by the truckloads lately. Fifteen years after we first saw Blue Steel (yes, Zoolander was 2001 but it fits firmly in with the comedies of the 90s), Paramount is dusting off the property and pushing Zoolander 2 into 3,300 theaters this weekend. The films Derek Zoolander (Ben Stiller) and Hansel (Owen Wilson) as they are still modeling all these years later, when a rival modeling company starts killing off the rich and famous beautiful people of the world (marketing centering on Justin Bieber to emphasize this point seems like a huge swing-and-a-miss). The two models must team up with a ridiculously beautiful Interpol agent (Penelope Cruz) for some reason and solve murders (?) - I doubt Zoolander strives to make much sense, it seems more of the "cash in on a 15 year old pre-existing property" style of filmmaking. The film sees the return of Magatu (Will Ferrell), and introduces new characters played by Kristen Wiig, Milla Jovovich, and Benedict Cumberbatch. With reviews from the premiere trashing the film - Rotten Tomatoes currently at 41% - I can't fathom many will show up to see Ben Stiller pose for the camera again.

Paramount has surprisingly been skimping on the ad budget for Z2 - my guess is that they're hoping the name alone will propel Generation X'ers into theaters. Even though it was seen as a disappointment at the time, Paramount's other long-in-the-works sequel, Anchorman 2 ($26M/$127M), proved that the studio didn't need quality to convince fans of the original to show up again. Although, Anchorman has always been held in higher regard than the lukewarm Zoolander. Even Dumb & Dumber To posted respectable numbers ($36M/$86M) in the fall of 2014. However, with the unimaginative premise that fails to connect the sequel to the original, Zoolander 2 is looking to land more in the field of Blues Brothers 2000 or Miss Congeniality 2: Armed & Fabulous ($14M/$48M).

Not only does Zoolander 2 look like Ben Stiller desperately trying to remain relevant, but it's also facing perhaps the biggest movie of the year pre-summer in Deadpool. This couldn't be a worse weekend to target young men or middle-aged men trying to relive their adolesence, as the R-rated superhero comedy will consume the demo entirely. Paramount couldn't see how big Deadpool would be, and by the time they could, it was too late.



The Prediction - Zoolander 2, riding on the memory fumes of the original and little else, will fail to entice many theatergoers this weekend. It will open to $16M, amass a total of 2 Top 5 points, a single PTA point, before limping to the barn with a total of $31M. For $16 in the Jan-March BO Leagues, picking Zoolander 2 is the same as dumping $16 in the trash. You'd be better off with the same-priced Allegiant next month or definitely the opening weekend of BvS. Skip.

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How To Be Single (WB) - How to be single? Just go to a screening of Zoolander 2 this weekend, am I right?!?! No, but seriously folks, WB looks to take advantage of the Valentine's Day weekend by pushing their romantic comedy How To Be Single into almost 3,400 theaters. Another mix of intermingling stories, the films looks at a group of friends as they strive to find love in New York City in the midst of Tinder, sexting, Snapchat, and Uber's Of Shame. How To Be Single stars Dakota Johnson, Rebel Wilson, Leslie Mann, Damon Wayans Jr, Alison Brie, and Workaholic's Anders Holm and so far has been kept from critics, which of course is a good sign to how strong the reviews will eventually be. Surprisingly rated R, WB is no doubt looking to replicate the success they had 5 years ago with that other Valentine's themed intermix of stories that encapsulated the aptly-titled Valentine's Day ($56M/$110M).

Unlike Valentine's Day however, the stars of How To Be Single are nowhere on the level of that of Valentine's Day; that film boasted Oscar winners and legendary actors (admittedly slumming it). Rebel Wilson is only known as a sidekick (Pitch Perfect, Bridesmaids), Leslie Mann seems to only have leading roles in her husband's films, Wayans Jr and Brie are only known from TV, and while Dakota Johnson did lead 50 Shades of Grey to the current February record, it's hard to put to onus of that onto her star power. Similarly, this weekend also saw the release of He's Just Not That Into You ($27M/$93M) back in 2009 - the movie that made the intertwining vignettes style of film popular in the first place - also, another WB title coincidentally.

While Deadpool will undoubtedly fill cineplexes with groups of young guys, How To Be Single hopes to fill seats with their neglected girlfriends. There will be overlap, especially since both are R-rated comedies, and How To Be Single will fight Zoolander 2 for the leftovers. It's marketing has failed to prove that the film has any semblance of a plot, instead opting to focus on the antics of Rebel - and without the pre-existing property that He's Just Not That Into You or Valentine's Day had, it won't be able to replicate either's opening. But with the dearth of female-aimed films in the marketplace, a respectable high teens or low 20s is more than within the realm of possibility.



The Prediction - How To Be Single, driven by those pesky women looking for female-centered comedy, will open to $20M this weekend, snagging 8 Top 5 points, 4 PTA points, before ending its run right around $55M. For $11 this season, there are a lot of like-priced alternatives, but How To Be Single is easily the safest choice among them all. If you can find room for it, the film can certainly surprise and pay off with a great slate around it.


This week's limited releases...

Where To Invade Next (TWC) - Michael Moore is back, baby! He's still exposing the dirty parts of our country for all to see, but his documentary barbs has gotten softer with his age. In Where To Invade Next, Moore visits several other countries across the globe to highlight certain parts of their life that makes the American counterpart looks as ridiculous as it truly is. The title comes from the notion of where Moore thinks America should invade to steal the better aspect of that countries' daily life for the good ole U.S. to claim as their own. Where To Invade Next has gotten generally favorable reviews so far, and its 75% Rotten Tomatoes score reflects that good, but not great notion.

Much like Moore's last film - Capitalism: A Love Story - Where To Invade Next will debut in hundreds of theaters this weekend, rendering it useless for PTA points this season. It's hard to gauge an exact number, but it's safe to say that the doc is going wide immediately - contrary to prior belief. Moore's box office returns have steadily declined since he hit his peak with Fahrenheit 9/11 in 2004; it seems that without his mortal enemy, Dubya, in power, many have opted to skip Moore's output. Far from the triple digits Fahrenheit hit, Capitalism: A Love Story could only pull $14M back in 2009 - and although Where To Invade Next looks to show Moore's lighter side, there's no way it will even hit the low bar set by Capitalism and Sicko. For $4 in Jan-Mar Ultimate Leagues, it can only be considered a complete waste of a slot on your slate. Drop it now.




Touched With Fire (Roadside Attractions) - Continuing her post-Tom career of leading indie films and bit parts in larger films, Katie Holmes is starring in Touched With Fire, releasing into 3 theaters this weekend from Roadside. Holmes plays Carla, a manic depressive residing in a mental hospital when she meets Marco (TV actor Luke Kirby), another manic depressive, and they begin a romance together steeped in mental illness. So like Silver Linings Playbook, except with way more crying and less Philadelphia Eagles-bashing. The film played at Sundance, but couldn't convince anyone to actually like it; it sits at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes currently, even with faint praise for Katie Holmes' performance.

Three theaters is an unusually low theater count for a Roadside title, as they've been known to dump films in the purgatory of too wide, but not wide enough. Last year, they pushed titles like Chi-Raq, Stonewall, Maggie, Z For Zachariah, Mr. Holmes, and Love & Mercy into triple digit theaters (or close) in their openings - only the latter two were able to manage any PTA points at all, and that was due more to the rave critical reviews they received. Touched With Fire does not have that going for it, nor does it have any star power; Katie Holmes is a long way from First Daughter or Batman Begins. It would cost you $3 in Jan-Mar Ultimate Leagues, but only if you were foolish enough to think more than a handful of PTA points were in the future.



Note: I'm not sure if A War is being released this weekend, IMDb and the Magnolia website have it as being released this weekend but BOM has it as 3/12/16 release (Fandango has it listed as a 4/8/16 release). In any case, its 5 theater count and the nomination for Best Foreign Film at this year's Oscars makes A War a very intriguing PTA choice. The Danish film centers on military commander Claus Pedersen, as him and his platoon are caught in a heavy battle as Pedersen hopes to make it home in one piece to his wife and three kids. Drawing comparisons to American Sniper, A War currently has an excellent 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and will most likely be the first pick for arthouse audiences. If it comes out this week. For $3, it's one of the best PTA bargains of the season.


My Predictions For The Weekend of February 12th-14th:

1. Deadpool - $65M
2. How To Be Single - $20M
3. Zoolander 2 - $16M
4. Kung Fu Panda 3 - $14M
5. Hail Caesar! - $6M

PTA: Deadpool, A War, How To Be Single, The Lady In The Van, Zoolander 2 (Touched With Fire, if A War doesn't come out)

Next week gives up a trifecta of blah films that typically make up the late February field, as well as a Wednesday release for the single limited release.

This week in Box Office History...

1993 - It's GROUNDHOGS DAY!! Yep, 23 years ago, the world was lucky enough to be given one of the best films centered on the Groundhog's Day holiday, and arguably one of Bill Murray's best films. Groundhog Day opened to the #1 spot easily with $14M, going on to total out at $70M - good enough for the 13th highest grossing film of the year, sandwiched right between Philadelphia and Grumpy Old Men. It doesn't get anymore early 90s than that. It's GROUNDHOGS DAY!! Yep, 23 years ago, the world was lucky enough to be given one of the best films centered on the Groundhog's Day holiday, and arguably one of Bill Murray's best films. Groundhog Day opened to the #1 spot easily with $14M, going on to total out at $70M - good enough for the 13th highest grossing film of the year, sandwiched right between Philadelphia and Grumpy Old Men. It's doesn't get anymore early 90s than that.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by numbersix »

I've seen some Deadpool estimates hit 100m, and it is possible. I think around 70 or 75 for the 3-day is more likely.

I would slightly disagree about Zoolander. Its fanbase definitely grew after its release, and Blue Steel is something everyone knows, putting it ahead of films like Blues Bros 2000 or Miss Congeniality 2.

As for PTA, don't write off Where to Invade Next just because it's in 300 theatres. Michael Moore's past two films performed well when they expanded well beyond that, and with the positive critical reception and the political buzz in the US at the moment, I still expect it to do well.

1. Deadpool - $75M
2. Zoolander 2 - $19M
3. How To Be Single - $18M
4. Kung Fu Panda 3 - $13M
5. Hail Caesar! - $5M

PTA: Deadpool, Where to Invade Next, How To Be Single, Zoolander 2 The Lady In The Van

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

A good friend of mine, author Korey Ward, just posted a three word review of Deadpool on Facebook:

BEST ... MOVIE ... EVER.

Sold, Korey.



Celebrity birthdays this week:

Charlie Day turned 40 on 2/9
Burt Reynolds turned 80 on 2/11
Aresenio Hall turns 60 on 2/12
Neal McDonough turns 50 on 2/13
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Chienfantome »

Wow, Deadpool is killing the best predictions. Based on thrusday night and friday early numbers, Deadline has it crossing $100M by Sunday night, and cume at 115M on the 4-day !
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Buscemi »

I was telling you Deadpool would break the February record. The comic book fans demanded it and they came. This should also bode well for Suicide Squad in August (satisfying another long-asked for demand, the all-villain movie).

Friday numbers/weekend numbers (via Deadline):
Deadpool $41.5 million Friday/$102.5 million 3-day ($115.3 million 4-day)
How to Be Single $5.5 million Friday/$19.1 million 3-day ($21.8 million 4-day)
Kung Fu Panda 3 $3.9 million Friday/$21.8 million 3-day ($28.7 million 4-day)
Zoolander No. 2 $4.4 million Friday/$14.8 million 3-day ($16.8 million 4-day)
Where to Invade Next $215,000 Friday/$766,000 3-day ($893,000 4-day) (much of the promotion this week was canceled due to Moore being in the hospital with pneumonia)

Anyway, Cinemascores:
Deadpool: A (no surprise, as this was made for the fans)
How to Be Single: B (not too good)
Zoolander No. 2: C+ (still wonder why Paramount greenlighted this other than "they had a script laying around")
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Wrestler »

Super excited to see SkullpoopL doing so well. My theater last night couldn't handle the business and sold out every show after 6 and quite a few before that. Sent a lot of people away at the end of the night. Pretty good sign for its legs I would guess. And its definitely a repeat viewing type movie. It probably won't be sniper or passion but it has a good shot at doing hangover numbers. I won't see it till tonight but I did go and check in on a few of the shows we had last night and each theater I walked in to at different parts of the movie had the entire theater laughing extremely loudly.

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Deadpool, $47.5M
How to Be Single, $5.2M
Zoolander 2, $4.2M
Panda 3, $3.9M
Hail, Caesar!, $1.5M
The Revenant, $1.3M
Star Wars, $1.2M
The Choice, $1.1M


Weekend Projections:

Deadpool, $114M
How to Be Single, $20.3M
Panda 3, $18.2M
Zoolander 2, $13.6M
The Revenant, $6.5M
Hail, Caesar!, $6.4M
Star Wars, $6.2M
The Choice, $5.1M
Ride Along 2, $3.9M
The Boy, $3.2M
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Chienfantome »

eadline is projecting even higher numbers now for Deadpool.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Buscemi »

The theatre I went to see Hail, Caesar! at today also happened to have the area-exclusive IMAX run of Deadpool so it was ridiculously crowded at 11:00 am (even though most of the people in line were seeing Kung Fu Panda 3 and Star Wars as Deadpool didn't start for another hour but people were buying Deadpool tickets hours in advance).

Hilariously, there was almost no one at Hail, Caesar! (and this was the same theatre where it took me three attempts to see Paddington).
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Chienfantome »

Having picked 10th in the yearly draft, I initially had as an objective to remain in Division A this season. Then at the end of 2015 I thought, "Hey, after all, I can aim the Top 5". But Wade Wilson just made me even more ambitious.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Projections

Top 10:
5 points - Deadpool, $135.0M
4 points - Kung Fu Panda 3, $19.6M
3 points - How to be Single, $18.7M
2 points - Zoolander 2, $15.6M
1 point - The Revenant, $6.9M
Hail, Caesar!, $6.6M
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, $6.2M
The Choice, $5.2M
Ride Along 2, $4.1M
The Boy, $2.9M

PTA:
5 points - Deadpool
4 points - How to Be Single
3 points - Kung Fu Panda 3
2 points - Zoolander 2
1 point - The Lady in the Van

Where to Invade Next came in at #7, Touched With Fire at #10.

No word yet on A War.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Walleye413 »

Kudos for original movies! I enjoy comic book movies as much as the next guy, but they do tend to blend together. Deadpool shows you can do a genre movie in a fresh way and get a great reaction from it.

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Deadpool, $132.4M
4 points - Kung Fu Panda 3, $19.8M
3 points - How to be Single, $17.9M
2 points - Zoolander 2, $13.8M
1 point - The Revenant, $6.5M
Hail, Caesar!, $6.4M
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, $6.2M
The Choice, $5.2M
Ride Along 2, $4.4M
The Boy, $3.1M

PTA:
5 points - Deadpool, $37,222
4 points - How to Be Single, $5,348
3 points - Kung Fu Panda 3, $5,139
2 points - The Lady in the Van, $4,260
1 point - Zoolander 2, $4,078


No word yet on A War.

In light of what was said earlier about A War coming out on a different date, I have not added it to people's "set in stone" rosters yet. People may stay with it, or they may replace it at their leisure.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Chienfantome »

"A War" numbers are in and they are awful. $1,819$ PTA.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 2/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Yikes. That blows.
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