Jonas made its presence felt through the box office, shutting down theaters up and down the East Coast - from NYC to Philadelphia to DC even down to here to North Carolina. I'm sure studios will use it to lay the blame on, but even if it were 80 and sunny, it doesn't seem like most were interested in the trifecta of new releases. Dirty Grandpa fared the best, but opening to 4th place with only $11M can really only be called the best in a prototypical January weekend like this. The Boy and The 5th Wave both could only manage $10M each, for 5th and 6th place, proving that nobody will pay money to see Chloe Moretz or dolls that are supposed to be scary but don't even move. The Revenant was able to capitalize on that, and the huge 65% drop for Ride Along 2, to take #1 for the first time since it opened. It's $16M brought it to $119M so far, and is well on its way to bypass Mad Max: Fury Road to become the 2nd highest grossing Best Picture nominee (after The Martian).
Passing through the gates of PTA World, we have pretty much the same field as last week; the only difference being The Boy stole 2 points, replacing Anomalisa since it expanded to over 100 theaters. The Lady In The Van tops the charts for the second week in a row, and with no limited releases this week, another win is a definite possibility.
This weekend's wide releases...
Kung Fu Panda 3 (Fox) - Oft-delayed by Dreamworks, the studio finally settled on an odd late January date for their three-quel in one of their most beloved franchises, Kung Fu Panda 3, and will push it into a January-record 3,900+ 2D and 3D theaters. After learning that there were still panda family out there at the end of Kung Fu Panda 2, this one kicks off with reuniting Po, overweight Dragon Warrior and unexpected leader of the Furious Five, with his parents after years of being raised by a single father duck. Po must learn how to be a true panda among his kind when a new villain, Kai, shows up in town for evil reasons. Po finds himself taking on Master duties to his Panda brethren, teaching them kung fu to help him and the Five defend their village once again from anthropomorphic animals hellbent on taking down the Dragon Warrior himself. Returning voices include the usual (Jack Black, Angelina Jolie, Dustin Hoffman, Seth Rogen, etc), and J.K. Simmons, Bryan Cranston, and Kate Hudson join the fray. The film is currently sitting at an impressive 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is slightly above both of its predecessors.
The original Kung Fu Panda surprised many when it opened to $60M in June 2008 and cruised its way to a $215M total, making it the studio's highest grossing non-Shrek film at the time. Three years later, Kung Fu Panda 2 couldn't capitalize on the originals goodwill, opening to only $47M in the shadow of The Hangover Part II and X-Men: First Class. It did produce an almost 4 multiplier on its ways to $165M, but couldn't wash off the disappointing sequel stink. Fox/Dreamworks has taken a new approach to this series, opting to the a big fish in the little pond that is January. And it looks to pay off; there hasn't been noteworthy children's fare since Thanksgiving (Alvin & Norm of the North are not even worthy of this parentheses...). Star Wars is showing signs of fatigue as it only made $14M in its 6th weekend, less than half of Avatar's $34M at the same point and all of the January openers have failed on release, save for The Revenant and Ride Along 2. Kung Fu Panda 3 is poised to open with little competition, and even if families aren't foaming at the mouth for this installment, it will beat Kung Fu Panda 2's opening easily and settle for January's second best opening.
A similar tactic was used by Universal back in 2009 when they decided to relaunch the Fast & Furious series by moving from June (where all previous three has opened) to April - which at that time was no man's land. Fast & Furious had little competition, opening against Adventureland of all things, and was able to post a record $70M weekend, which was triple the OW of Tokyo Drift. Now of course, that series owns April and have turned it into basically the new start of summer. The LEGO Movie proved that the first weekend of February could support a huge children's film, and KFP3 is taking a page out of its book - though it did stake the weekend before, most likely because Fox didn't want two releases on back to back weekends (it has Deadpool on Feb. 12th).
The Prediction - Kung Fu Panda 3, while not the most anticipated sequel, has a barren landscape to rule over this weekend. It will open to $56M, while amassing 17 Top 5 points, 13 PTA points, and a cume around $193M. It'll run you $23 in Jan-March Leagues, which is one of the most expensive titles, but it's worth it if you think it can outdo Zootopia. I think it's a slate anchor and I can't see winning without it.
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The Finest Hours (BV) - Coming off an insane 2015 for the Mouse House in which each installment of their yearly staples (Pixar, Marvel, and now Star Wars) grossed over $350M easily, including The Force Awakens ridiculous $900M performance last month, the studio looks to start 2016 with a whimper. They're hoping to wrangle older audiences with their period Coast Guard drama, The Finest Hours, releasing it into 3,000 theaters, including 3D and IMAX 3D. It follows the true story of the US Coast Guard in 1952 going out in one of the worst storms to ever hit the East Coast to save the crews of two oil tankers that had capsized in the blizzard. Starring the ever-respectable if not box office unproven cast of Casey Affleck, Chris Pine, Ben Foster, and Eric Bana, The Finest Hours comes from the director of another Disney true story tale: the Jon Hamm-starrer Million Dollar Arm, which failed to make a box office impact in summer 2014. Unfortunately, this film only has a current 42% on RT, so audiences will need to be swayed by the giant waves in 3D to show up this weekend.
And that's doubtful as fuck, just look at the very similar 3D sea adventure from last month: Ron Howard's In The Heart of The Sea. That had the built-in awareness of being based on the literary classic, Moby Dick, but couldn't even open to 1st place on a weekend where it was the only new film in the marketplace. A $11M/$24M performance is disastrous and it's hard not to see similar numbers in The Finest Hours' future. Not only has sea-faring adventure proven to be box office poison, films based on the Coast Guard have continually disappointed as well - the most recent example being the famed Ashton Kutcher/Kevin Costner team-up, The Guard ($18M/$55M) back in 2006. Even that looks like The Avengers-numbers compared to what's expected of The Finest Hours: the bad reviews, the thrice delayed release date to the dregs of January, and the star-less cast in a period adventure screams of bomb.
The Prediction - The Finest Hours will almost assuredly face the same fate as that Thor fights Moby Dick movie from last month, but with even worst reviews, it could get ugly for Disney's latest true story adaptation. It will open to $11M, grab 3 Top 5 points total, 2 PTA points, and limp to the barn (dock?) with a grand total of $22M. For $10 in Jan-March BO Leagues, stay far, far away - you're better off gambling on Triple 9, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, or Cloverfield 2 for that money.
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Fifty Shades of Black (Open Road) - And with what's easily the most anticipated film of all-time, Marlon Wayans continues his "spoof" assault on American cinemas with his latest, Fifty Shades of Black, an incredibly cleverly-titled play on Fifty Shades of Grey (Get it? Cause he's Black!). Open Road will opening the comedy in roughly 2,100 theaters, about the same count they gave to Marlon's last two spoofs the studio released. Taken straight from the pages of E.L. James' crazy popular bestseller, Wayans plays Christian Black, a multibillionaire who strikes up a relationship with a sheltered, college virgin named Hannah (played by Couples Retreat's Kali Hawk) before introducing her to his "BDSM" lifestyle. And judging from Wayan's other output, there's sure to be "Black" jokes galore, fat people falling, random violence, and a glutton of unfunny cutaway gags. Not surprisingly, the film has been withheld from critics, but if his last two films' RT scores are to be believed (10% and 8%, respectively), a single digit is in the future here.
Marlon Wayans burst back onto the spoof scene in 2013 with A Haunted House ($18M/$40M), after taking 4 years off since his last attempt (2009's Dance Flick). It took a spin on the found footage trend that admittedly already began declining by then, but still was able to take advantage of a very soft January schedule to gross 20x its budget. Its sequel, A Haunted House 2, moved to April in 2014 - proving to be a mistake as it could only gross half the original ($8M/$17M). This year, Fifty Shades of Black is coming after Ride Along 2 made a splash two weekends ago, and Dirty Grandpa was the highest grossing opener last weekend - the Wayan's spoofs have never faced a saturated comedy marketplace like they will this weekend. It will have to fight for those movies' scraps before facing FOUR new comedies in the next two weeks.
While his Haunted House movies were taking aim widely at an entire genre, Wayans has smartly sharpened his focus to a single film, choosing the huge franchise that is 50 Shades of Grey. Making $185M last February, it's not hard to admit that the brand is well known in America, even by people who deride the behaviors of its main characters. Producing and releasing a parody within 11 months is a savvy business move, and Open Road hopes that audiences usually not tempted by spoof films will show up to see what the movie can do with its beloved source material. This will be the reason Fifty Shades of Black will improve on the tired performance of A Haunted House 2, and just maybe, A Haunted House itself.
The Prediction - Fifty Shades of Black will see a slight bump in box office traffic, mostly due to the relevancy of 50 Shades of Grey. It should open to $16M, amass 5 Top 5 points, 4 PTA points due to its low theater count, and a total around $36M. It's priced at $11 in Jan-March BO Leagues, which is hard to predict the cost efficiency based on the unstable field that is spoof comedy. It's a huge gamble, but could pay off handsomely for the few that chose to play.
This week's limited release...
Jane Got A Gun (TWC) - And with a surprise limited release (a.k.a. a nice Weinstein dumping), the Natalie Portman western with the most troubled production in recent history, Jane Got A Gun, will only be opening in 550 theaters this weekend. Portman plays Jane Hammond, an Old West woman who asks a former lover (The Gift's Joel Edgerton) to help her rescue her current husband (Noah Emmerich) from a notorious gang from Jane's past hellbent on taking her life apart, led by gang mastermind Colin McCann (as played by Ewan McGregor). Everyone by now knows the trouble executive producer Portman went through to get this film completed, and TWC will be cutting their losses by dumping into a very soft wide release (or a very big limited release, depending on how you look at it). It won't be in arthouse, so it won't be able to depend on older moviegoers intrigued by the talented cast. It's being withheld from critics, but it wouldn't make a difference either way - 500 theaters is simply too wide to produce any PTA points, and way too low to produce any Top 5 points. Jane Got A Gun is in no man's land, and even if it's just $4 in Jan-March leagues, you shouldn't be anywhere near Jane this weekend.
Predictions For The Weekend of January 29th-31st:
1. Kung Fu Panda 3 - $56M
2. Fifty Shades of Black - $16M
3. The Finest Hours - $11M
4. The Revenant - $9M
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $8M
PTA: Kung Fu Panda 3, Fifty Shades of Black, The Lady In The Van, The Finest Hours, The Revenant
Well that's the first month of 2016 down already! We'll get a Coens Brothers movie next week, along with a Nicolas Sparks Joint and the odd Victorian romance/zombie flick mashup. One of these things is not like the other...
Watch This Instead...
If you're just not into whatever The Finest Hours is selling, a better Chris Pine option might be last summer's Z For Zachariah, a post-apocalyptic drama from director Craig Zobel, that of the disturbing, true story adaptation Compliance. The film follows Ann (Margot Robbie), a young woman who believes she's the last human on Earth after nuclear disaster strikes. She inhabits a valley that protects the water supply from nuclear waste alone for years, when a man (Chiwetel Ejiofor) unexpectedly stumbles upon her Paradise. They make a life together - until another man (Pine) enters with suspicious motives and throws the balance of the three survivors into a tailspin. Z For Zachariah has a respectable 78% on RT and a 68 on Metacritic, which is pretty high for Metacritic. It's currently on DVD and Blu-Ray, and is also available on our RS Vudu account.
