The Martian continued Hollywood's streak of striking rich with space-set dramas released in the fall, as it easily opened #1 with $54M - just a hair short of 2013's $55.7M record set by another stranded-in-space tale, Gravity. With fantastic reviews and no competition this weekend, The Martian should bypass The Bourne Ultimatum's $227M to become Matt Damon's highest grossing movie ever. The best reviewed movie of the year, Sicario, expanded wide to over 2,500 theaters and did better than expected with $12M over the weekend. It shouldn't have any problem ending its run around $40M and will factor big into this year's Oscar race. Hotel Transylvania 2 continues to dominate the family market, only dropping 31% for a fantastic $33M second weekend.
PTA wise, He Named Me Malala proved me to be an idiot by winning the crown in its 4 theaters. Widely expanding this weekend probably won't help it grab any more however. And despite opening on Wednesday, Labyrinth of Lies notched 2 PTA points of its own - somehow SPC keeps sneaking their releases into our PTA race. It has a great chance to earn more as this weekend's limiteds consists of only 1 film.
This week's wide releases...
Pan (WB) - Warner Brothers looks to cash in on the live-action remakes of classic animated fairy tales with their 2nd attempt in 3 years, as Pan sky-floats its way into over 3,400 theaters. This version of Pan doesn't aim to stray too far from the classic tale, as it follows Peter Pan (played by unknown Levi Miller) who finds himself in Neverland to fight Blackbeard (Hugh Jackman) to save the world and Tinkerbell - or something like that, I don't know shit about Peter Pan. Pushed into production not because WB had figured out a new spin on a timeless tale, but because WB saw a box office trend and decided to limp their way into the fray (again). Also showing up is Garrett Hedlund as Hook, Rooney Mara as (the traditionally Native American) Tiger Lily, and although they haven't been even hinted at in the marketing plan, apparently Amanda Seyfried and Cara Delevinge also are in this movie.
As noted before, this is indeed WB's 2nd try to break into that sweet live-action fairy tale money - following their bomb two years Jack The Giant Slayer, another unimaginative retelling of a ever-popular children's story. Jack The Giant Slayer reeked with the air of "Who Is This For?", which is rearing its ugly head again with Pan. Jack opened with $27M against very weak competition (the Project X-wannabe with 21 & Over and long-delayed horror sequel The Last Exorcism Part 2) and this weekend, Pan does not have that luxury. The Martian is absolutely dominating the market and Hotel Transylvania 2 has its Adam Sandler paws on the family crowd, and Pan will undoubtedly draw the short end of the stick. Unlike Jack however, Pan will not be playing in 3D as WB cancelled its 3D run days before the release, which just reeks of cutting losses while they can.
WB has been pushing Hugh Jackman's turn as Blackbeard heavily in its advertising, but they seem to forget that Jackman is nowhere near a box office draw without his Wolverine claws. Jackman has only led a non-X-Men film past $100M domestic twice in the last 15 years, 2004's Van Helsing ($51M/$120M) and 2012's Les Miserables ($27M/$148M) - and Pan has neither prime release date that those two enjoyed (1st weekend of the summer and Christmas Day, respectively).
The controversy surrounding the casting of vanilla-milk-and-Wonderbread-tinted Rooney Mara as Tiger Lily hasn't been huge, but I can't imagine it helped awareness of the movie. Director Joe Wright has had to come out publicly in defense of his decision, but Mara recently apologized for taking the part, saying she "felt bad about it" and initially wanted no part of the role.
The Prediction: Pan will fail to attract audiences of any kind, making WB 0 for 2 with their fairy tale adaptation attempts. It will open to only $19M, grabbing 4 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, and topping out at $51M - good enough to guarantee we won't be getting a sequel centering on Hedlund's Hook as the villain. Priced at $14 in October-Dec BO Leagues, it's not the worst choice - but let's be honest, there's not room for it on your Hunger Games/Star Wars slate anyhow.
Note: The Walk will expand into non-IMAX theaters to make room for Pan into 2,500 theaters. Seeing how bad it bombed in its IMAX-only run, I can only see JGL's French accent grossing $3M this weekend, making it a bomb of the highest degree. Broad Green Pictures will expand its critically acclaimed festival darling, 99 Homes, into mini-wide release with a theatre count of roughly 700. It has an outside chance of breaking $1M, if it plays well.
This week's limited releases...
Steve Jobs (Universal) - After a long and tumultuous trop from page to screen that was laid bare for the world to see in last year's Sony hack, Danny Boyle's biopic of one of America's most famous and most divisive figureheads of the last half century, Apple CEO Steve Jobs. People loved to love Jobs, and even more people (probably Android users) loved to hate the man behind the Mac, iPhone, iPad, Siri, Apple TV, and the most popular laptops on college campuses, the the Apple Macbook. Steve Jobs, scripted by Oscar-winner Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network), takes a non-traditional look at the innovator's life, using three major events of his career as a microcosm of the man himself instead of the typical two hour compression of a subject's entire life. The film will see Jobs (played by Oscar-nominee and date-r of Alicia Vikander, Michael Fassbender) as he introduces the Macintosh in 1984, the NeXt computer in 1988, and the iMac in 1998 - filled with flashbacks and flash forwards in between. The film currently sits at 91% on RT and co-stars Kate Winslet, Jeff Daniels, Katherine Waterson, and Seth Rogen as The Woz.
Universal will be opening Steve Jobs in a prime 4 theaters this weekend in NY and LA, before slightly expanding next weekend and going fully wide on Oct. 23rd. Not too long ago, it would've been Sony releasing this film this weekend, but in a very different form. Probably the biggest non-The Interview story that came out of last year's Sony leaked emails, the entire industry poured through exec's communications as they desperately tried to put this film together in its original iteration: directed by David Fincher and starring Christian Bale as Jobs. But when Angelina Jolie convinced Fincher to direct her Cleopatra film instead (with former Sony head Amy Pascal calling her a "stuck up bitch" in the process"), Bale passed on the film as did Sony's second choice - Leonardo DiCaprio. Sony shut the film down and Universal quickly snapped the script up, slotting in Danny Boyle as director and Fassbender as Jobs. This fiasco brought the film national attention before it was even done filming, and will probably move the needle in the right direction at the box office.
Unlike the ill-fated Ashton Kutcher starrer from 2013, Universal is selling Steve Jobs on its unique layout and an All-Star cast - not just a look alike in recreations of famous photos. The film was the centerpiece of this year's New York Film Festival and amassed rave reviews soon thereafter - particularly for Fassbender's turn and Sorkin's 200+ page script, both of which figure to feature at this year's Oscars. Almost a lock for 10 PTA points, Steve Jobs will also open wide against a weak field of long delayed genre films and another Paranormal Activity that absolutely no one is anticipating. Depending on how the holdovers from the 16th hold, it has an outside chance of grabbing #1 at the box office. The comparison Universal would like is 2011's The Social Network ($22M/$96M), which would've easily been attainable had they stayed with the wide release this weekend. But opening only two weeks before Spectre will cut into its legs deeply. It's priced at $13 in BO leagues and $15 in Ultimate, and it's definitely worth the price in either league - if you opt for just one anchor in Box Office.
My predictions for the weekend of October 9th-11th:
1. The Martian - $38M
2. Hotel Transylvania 2 - $22M
3. Pan - $19M
4. Sicario - $7M
5. The Intern - $6.5M
PTA: Steve Jobs, The Martian, Hotel Transylvania 2, Labyrinth of Lies, Pan
Next week sees three very major and very different releases (Bridge of Spies, Goosebumps, Crimson Peak) as well as two highly acclaimed, festival darlings limited releases (Room, Truth).
This week in Box Office History...
1994 - The world was given proof that wunderkind director Quentin Tarantino wasn't a one-hit, blood-soaked wonder when Pulp Fiction was released unto the movie going public. It opened to #1 with a $9M weekend starting a 5 weeklong Top 5 streak, ending up with $107M as the 10th highest grossing film of the year and 7 Oscar nominations, including Best Director and Best Picture. It also cemented Samuel L. Jackson and resurrected John Travolta as movie stars and each were Oscar-nominated, but strangely enough neither has been nommed since. Wes Craven's New Nightmare, a Nightmare on Elm Street reboot of sorts, opened to $6 at the #3 spot, and the best football-themed kids movie of all time, Little Giants, could only muster a #5 opening with $4M.
