SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Brockster
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by Brockster »

Does anyone know if the standings are finally accurate now? I know they've been messed up, but they were working on it.

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donnie
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by donnie »

Yes Brockster.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by Geezer »

Except it has Bourne in it!!!
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by Buscemi »

She's Out Of My League will flop. No stars are in it (Jay Baruchel is still a supporting actor at this point), it's been on the shelf for over a year, the bromance genre is a joke (it's pretty much just like every other teen guy movie, no reason to distinguish it apart from those movies) and the trailer is pretty bad (I get turned off when the line about the "plane doctor" comes up). Its target audience will wait for Hot Tub Time Machine.

Also, hasn't the whole "can a 10 go for a 5" plot been done before?
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numbersix
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by numbersix »

I think SOoML will be a mid-level hit, opening in mid teens and crawling to about $40 mil until Hot Tub Time Machine turns up.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by Brockster »

It would be one thing if it looked funny...but it doesn't,and it doesn't have any bankable stars to carry it...it has FLOP written all over it.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

WOM will be tremendous, no matter what it opens to.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by Buscemi »

So, will it be like Superbad (good word of mouth and good box office) or Sex Drive (good word of mouth and bad box office)?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by silversurfer19 »

Wrong time of year for Knocked Up kind of success I would bet. It may do ok though. Wouldn't suggest anything over $40m gross.

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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Buscemi wrote:So, will it be like Superbad (good word of mouth and good box office) or Sex Drive (good word of mouth and bad box office)?
Well, I doubt itll break out like Superbad, but it won't do nearly as bad as Sex Drive.

I think it'll be like the other spring R-rated comedies (ILYM and Forgetting Sarah Marshall). Somewhere around 17/70.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by Brockster »

Yikes...looks like I was way wrong on Remember Me...but jeez, what a turd of a weekend overall...besides Alice of course.

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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Yeah, this weekend was quite a surprise, as everything new flops pretty much.
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undeadmonkey
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by undeadmonkey »

That's a pretty great hold for Alice, 6th highest 2nd weekend ever. Should have no problem ending up around $300M

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

How To Train Your Dragon will probably hurt it a bit, taking just about all its IMAX and a good chunk of 3D sites.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

Post by numbersix »

Yeah I see Alice making about 275 in the end, but even that is exceptional! Glad I have it in most slates.

This week's results shows that any film regarding Iraq will never be a box office success. Even The Hurt Locker only made about 15 mil. It'll be interesting to see what kind of legs She's Out of my League will have, if any.

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