SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/12

[Shrykespeare]

To borrow from the vocabulism of George Bush, did I seriously misunderestimate Alice in Wonderland. I honestly didn’t think that the bizarreness of the plot would appeal to such a wide range of moviegoers, but I guess the Disney mystique more than made up for that. Beating the previous spring record of $70.8 million held by 300, Alice manages to outgross every movie thus far in 2010 in only its FIRST THREE DAYS. Holy Hannah.

There are nine films coming out on March 12th, which I believe is a personal record for me during my tenure as a column writer. After only two last week, one can only wonder how the Top 5 and PTA points will be dispersed this weekend. I honestly don’t believe, given this past weekend’s numbers, whether any of the nine films has what it takes to dethrone the latest Burton/Depp blockbuster, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any potential diamonds in the proverbial rough.

First, off, I’ll mention that Stolen Lives (aka Stolen), which was supposed to have bowed this past weekend, was bumped up to this weekend. It will be opening in New York only, with an additional Los Angeles opening scheduled for next week. It is still only $3 in the March Ultimate leagues, but now that it has some ferocious competition for those PTA points, I would say ignore it, if only for the terrible 5.0 User Rating. Okay, one down, eight to go.

There are four film scheduled for wide release this Friday, and the only one with any big-money potential at all is Green Zone, an action/thriller from Universal re-teaming the potent combination of director Paul Greengrass, the man behind the two Bourne Identity sequels, with the star of that explosive trilogy, Matt Damon. And though the trailer promises an equal amount of action in Green Zone, it also looks to be more politically diverse and multi-layered a story than the Bourne films were.

For those not in the know, the “Green Zone” is the common name for the International Zone of Iraq, a ten-square-kilometer area in central Baghdad that is the hub of international presence in the war-torn country. This was the setting for “Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq’s Green Zone”, an award-winning non-fiction bestseller penned by Indian-American journalist Rajiv Chandrasekaran.

The plot, during the U.S.-led occupation of Baghdad in 2003, Chief Warrant Officer Roy Miller (Damon) are sent to find hidden stockpiles of WMD’s, but instead finds an elaborate cover-up that subverts their mission at every turn. Torn between operations between the agendas of a Pentagon intelligence operative (Greg Kinnear) and a veteran CIA agent (Brendan Gleeson), Miller must discover the truth that could stop the veritable tension in the region from escalating out of control.

I’m sure you all know just how successful the Bourne series was. When you re-couple Greengrass and Damon, and throw in screenwriter Brian Helgeland (L.A. Confidential, Mystic River), you have a story that can’t help but be taut, tense and extremely entertaining. Set to debut in roughly 3,000 theaters, Green Zone looks to be easily the biggest adult-themed action film until summer. But will that make it a hit?

For $16 in Ultimate, I honestly don’t know if it is a worthy pick. It won’t do well enough to beat Alice in Wonderland's second week, but it should easily come in at #2 with around $30 million. I predict eight Top 5 points, three PTA, about $80 in total receipts and a very good User Rating, around 7.5 (it currently sits at 7.6 with over 300 votes). But $16 is a steep price (and is even steeper, at $17, in Box Office), and I don’t know if I, personally, would take the risk. Race to Witch Mountain did okay (but not stellar) on this weekend last year, and I think there are better picks to be had for the same amount of money.

Up next we have Remember Me, a romantic drama from Summit Entertainment starring Twilight hunk Robert Pattinson as Tyler Hawkins, a rebellious college student in New York who has been on the outs with his stringent father (Pierce Brosnan, appearing in his third film in less than a month) since his brother’s suicide. He runs afoul of a policeman (Chris Cooper) during a “wrong place, wrong time” altercation, and things get worse when he starts falling for a classmate named Ally (Lost’s Emilie de Ravin), who just happens to be the cop’s daughter. Ooh, awkward.

Dear John was a big hit on its opening weekend, going down in history as the film to finally dethrone Avatar, but despite Pattinson’s allure with teenage girls, there is no way that Remember Me will do as well. First off, it’ll be shown in only about 2,000 theaters; secondly, I’ve barely seen any advertising for it at all; and third, it just doesn’t look that good. I’ve only seen one review for this film, and it was negative, calling the film “flakey”, with an “ill-conceived, dragged-out ending that overshadows the film’s flimsy premise”.

For $8 in Ultimate ($9 in Box Office), I just don’t see Remember Me bringing in much more than $12 million, which I figure won’t place it any higher than #4. Two Top 5 points, no PTA and a middling User Rating are not enough to spend its price tag on, plain and simple. Not for a film that, despite its title, will even be remembered a month from now.

Far more likely to make a splash is She’s Out of My League, which has been much better advertised, and is being given a much wider release platform, at roughly 2,700 locations. It is an R-rated comedy from Paramount and DreamWorks, and it stars Jay Baruchel (who is also the lead voice in DreamWorks’ latest animated film, How to Train Your Dragon, which opens in two weeks) as Kirk, a lowly Pittsburgh airport worker whose sole goal in life is to get back together with his evil ex-GF (Lindsay Sloane).

Then one day he meets Molly (Alice Eve), who he and his friends describe as a “Hard 10” (which, incidentally, was the original title of the film), and he seems very surprised when a hottie like here would be interested in dating a shy, nervous nerd like him. But when you combine his insecurities – of which there are many – along with the incredulity of everyone around them, can such a relationship actually sustain, even in the movies?

Well, “Beauty and the Geek” has been done before, and it can be a very engaging story if done right. Whether She’s Out Of My League can climb that mountain remains to be seen. But I have talked to a lot of people, and many of them are interested in this film (or at the very least, not ready to dismiss it out of hand). So I will therefore predict a #3 finish for it, bringing in roughly $16 million for its first three days. It’s inexpensively priced ($6 in Ultimate, $7 in Box Office), so I think it could be a good bargain, gleaning three or four Top 5 points and $40 million. The User Rating won’t be terrific, but it probably won’t be horrible either.

Fourth up is Our Family Wedding, a family comedy from Fox Searchlight. It stars Forest Whitaker and Carlos Mencia as fathers destined to bump heads when two of their respective kids (Lance Gross and America Ferrera) get engaged. Directed by Rick Famuyiwa (The Wood), it will be bowing in just over 1,500 theaters this Friday.

What can I say? This movie looks as cliché-ridden as it gets. You have the usual wedding clichés, as well as African-American comedy clichés, Hispanic comedy clichés, clash-of-culture clichés, and… a goat who OD’s on Viagra. No, that last part is not made up. Just watch the trailer (if you dare) and see for yourself... if you dare.

Fox Searchlight has put out some very good critically-praiseworthy films in the last year (Crazy Heart, Fantastic Mr. Fox), but it has also put out some severe duds (Amelia, Miss March, Gentleman Broncos). And since I don’t see Our Family Wedding vying for any awards, I think that its outlook is not promising.

I daresay an opening of $10 million is as optimistic as I can be. It may come in at #5, but it won’t go higher. I certainly wouldn’t spend $7 (in either leagues) for this, a film that will give you one Top 5 point (tops, perhaps not even that), no PTA, $18 million total and a User Rating around 4.0. Stay far, far away from this bomb.

And now, a bit about the four limited-release films coming out on March 12th (apart from Stolen Lives):

Madeo (Mother), $4 Ult, $2 BO – This is probably the best of the group. A Korean crime drama directed by Joon-ho Bong, Madeo was shown at a host of noteworthy film festivals, including Cannes, Toronto and New York, and was Korea’s entry for Best Foreign Film at the Oscars. It tells the story of Hye-ja, a ginseng vendor and devoted mother, who becomes distraught when her mentally-ill son is arrested on circumstantial evidence for the brutal murder of a high school girl. In her quest to prove his innocence, Hye-ja uncovers a world of secrets all on her own.

To put it mildly, critical praise for Madeo has been through the roof. It only has three professional reviews at RT (all positive), and has been nominated – and won – several awards. Its current User Rating is a stellar 8.1 with over 1,400 votes, so for its small price tag, you’ll be helping yourself in at least one category. And depending on its theater count, it could easily get #1 in the PTA race on this crowded weekend. (I'll hopefully be posting Chien's review of this movie on my site very soon.)

Tales From the Script, $3 Ult, $1 BO – You can’t ever count out a documentary, particularly one about the process of film-making. Or, to be more accurate, film writing. Director Peter Hanson cobbles together bits of interviews with some of Hollywood’s best and most prolific screenwriters, including William Goldman (Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, All the President’s Men), Shane Black (the Lethal Weapon movies), Paul Schrader (Raging Bull) as well as directors John Carpenter and Frank Darabont, among many others.

Though not for everyone, it would appear to be an excellent choice for anyone with aspirations to be a screenwriter. It showcases the ups and downs of the profession, including the horrors associated with having your work mutilated and bastardized by Hollywood so-and-sos. It, too, has nothing but positive reviews on RT (three of them) and a magnificent User Rating (9.3 but with only 26 votes), and it, too was showcased at numerous (though lesser) festivals. For $3, even if it craps out on PTA, it won’t be a futile waste of resources.

Children of Invention, $2 Ult, $1 BO – And… another film festival critical darling. The kudos that this film received are too numerous to mention (check out its Wikipedia page for that), and it, too, is three-for-three on RT. It tells the story of Elaine Cheng (Cindy Cheung), a divorced mother of two small children, who in trying to make a better life for herself and her family, gets unknowingly involved in an illegal pyramid scheme and then disappears.

Currently boasting a User Rating of 7.1 (with 96 votes), Children of Invention could quite easily come out of nowhere and snag a few PTA points. It’s more of a gamble than the last two films I mentioned, but it could be a surprise winner. I guarantee you, very few people will pick it, so be the first on your block to do so!

The Exploding Girl, $2 Ult, $1 BO – Well, if there is one sour apple in the bunch, it’s probably this one. Despite the fact that it won the Producers Award at the Independent Spirit Awards this past week, as well as Best Actress for Zoe Kazan at Tribeca, as well as numerous acclaims from other sources (mentioned in the trailer), I just don’t feel the same vibe for this title that I have from the other films this week.

Kazan plays Ivy, a young epileptic who must balance her feelings between her new boyfriend (Hunter Canning) and a childhood friend (Mark Rendall) who is staying with her during their summer break from college. Though some might call it a thought-provoking character piece, it just seems to lack the same oomph that the other limited-release films this week do. I could be wrong, but its current Rating (6.3 with about 100 votes) and RT score (1 out of 4 good reviews at RT) tell me otherwise.


My predictions for the weekend of March 12-14, 2010:

1. Alice in Wonderland – $61 million
2. Green Zone – $30 million
3. She’s Out of my League – $16 million
4. Remember Me – $11 million
5. Our Family Wedding - $10 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, only five films to talk about as I tackle the films of March 19th, which are: The Bounty Hunter, a comedy starring Gerard Butler and Jennifer Aniston; Diary of a Wimpy Kid, a kiddie comedy starring Zach Gordon as a youngster dealing with the horrors of middle school; Repo Men, a gory actioner starring Jude Law and Forest Whitaker as two friends whose job it is to repossess human organs once their owners become delinquent on their payments; as well as limited-release features Greenberg and Vincere.

Later!

[Buscemi]

This weekend looks awfully weak. Of the openers, I only see Green Zone breaking $10 million.

Predictions:
1. Alice In Wonderland $30 million
2. Green Zone $14 million
She's Out Of My League $8 million
Remember Me $8 million
Our Family Wedding $3 million

[silversurfer19]

You seriously see a 75% drop for Alice on it's second weekend? I mean, I know you like to post some hard to believe numbers for movies you have no interest in, but come on! This is Disney, it's IMAX and 3D. No chance in hell it drops THAT much. And I think Green Zone should outperform Brooklyn's Finest's opening numbers by a big distance.

[Buscemi]

Alice in Wonderland will suffer from the fanboy effect (in this case, Depp and Burton fans). Also, word of mouth doesn't seem to be as good as expected (mainly due to the misleading ad campaign and it causing people to complain that Depp isn't in it enough).

Meanwhile, Green Zone's Iraq plot and the fact that it's been on the shelf for over a year worries me. The Hurt Locker was successful in the arthouses and with critics but the film only grossed $12 million. And plus Hollywood has been known to overdo it on the politics for these movies, leading people to stay away in droves for these types of movies.

Lastly, Paul Greengrass's highest grossing non-Bourne film is United 93, which grossed $31 million at the box office. The Bourne-esque ads seem like a last ditch attempt not to end up like a Rendition or a Lions For Lambs. However, the best film to compare it to is Body of Lies (which grossed about $38 million despite an ad campaign which promoted it as an action film).

[silversurfer19]

I was at the theatre last night to see Alice and I can definitely say, even for a later evening performance, that its audience was very wide ranging, not just your 'Burton stereotypes'. With it being holiday season over there in the US at the moment I have no doubt that it will hold strong, and will probably match Charlie and The Chocolate Factory's second weekend drop of 50%. Furthermore, Johnny Depp is in plenty of the movie, probably not quite as much as Alice but he probably has the second most screen time. I doubt Depp fans will be disappointed at all - my wife is one and she was very pleased with him!

[undeadmonkey]

I think Shryke's predictions are about right i would put green zone a bit lower, about $23M. And yea, there is no way that Alice in wonderland is dropping 75%, no way.

[numbersix]

I kinda agree with Boosch on Green Zone. Despite the marketing campaign trying to make it look like Bourne 4, I think Bourne Does Baghdad will be a big turn-off for some. But with that said I wonder with The Hurt Locker's wins make Green Zone look more appealing? I'd say Green Zone will open to about $20 Mil but positive reviews will make it drop slowly.

And Alice in Wonderland will indeed see a big drop. 75% is too much, because it still will appeal to families, so 50-60% is more likely. Still, that means another 50-65 mil!

And as for Remember Me, it's tracking lower and lower each week. It may not even break 10 Mil this weekend.

[Brockster]

Just out of curiousity Six...where are you seeing tracking for this weekend already?

[numbersix]

HSX forums

Check out http://www.hsx.com/security/view/REMBR and look at the forum posts on the bottom right.

[Brockster]

I think you guys might be underestimating the Rob Pattinson (sp?) factor for Remember Me. 15M + would not surprise me. It's PG-13, which means plenty of the teeny bopper girls who loved Twilight have to be factored in. And Shryke, I don't know what TV channels you watch, but there hasn't been a day go by where I haven't seen the trailer for this movie (my wife is pregnant, which means she's emotional, which means we watch a lot of female oriented TV shows...and if any of you have kids you know not to mess with pregnant women). Meanwhile, She's Out of My League has no star power and it honestly looks awful...you could sell a plate full of shit all day long, but it doesn't mean people are going to eat it.

Who knows though, I haven't been playing well recently so I could be the one full of shit

[Buscemi]

The only thing I know about Remember Me is that Robert Pattinson plays a tough guy. Do you really know anyone that's going to see that?

[Brockster]

Yes, the teenage girls and moms who loved Twilight. Certainly none of us, but I think we're not considering this movie is not geared towards us.

[Aquamann2001]

are we still doing immunities in super leagues?

[Shrykespeare]

Yes, Aquamann, we are.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I think She's Outta My League will take #2 this weekend. R-rated comedy, when there are no other rom-coms geared towards couples.

Green Zone will probably continue the streak of Iraq movies flopping, it really looks no different from Rendition or Body of Lies.

I think Green Zone will vie with Remember Me for 3rd place.