SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by Shrykespeare »

It’s the end of an era. Not only did this past weekend mark the end of the December leagues, it also marked the end of the very last leagues that I did by hand, something I was forced to do after FM folded. Hard to believe it was just over a year that I had to keep this up, because God knows, it sure felt a lot longer sometimes. But I want you all to know that it was a pleasure to do it, no matter how many withering glares my wife gave me while I was pounding away at my Standings Pages. The Fantaverse is so worth it.

Of course, now that we are into March, Avatar has now officially disappeared over the horizon in our rear-view mirror. James Cameron’s monster finished with 45 Top 5 points, 45 PTA points, a User Rating of 8.5 and over $706 million. Just unbelievable, especially when you consider that it is STILL in the Top 5! But for the purposes of game play, it is now merely a memory.

The first weekend of March officially kicks off the spring season, the two-month stretch sandwiched between the uncertainty of post-Christmas winter and glorious big-budget summer. One year ago, Watchmen entered theaters with a mountain of hype, a geyser of hope and a wellspring of fan-boy fanaticism. Sadly, it failed to strike a chord with the average moviegoer, with its prodigious length (163 minutes), its rating (a heavy R for violence, gore and sex) and its overblown premise. Such a pity, as I find the story to be quite engaging. Still, those of us that chose it for our slates regretted it almost immediately.

This spring’s leadoff hitter has only two things common with Watchmen: it too represents the “fantasy” genre, and it too has probably just as many question marks. But other than that, they are as different as night and day. I am, of course, referring to Alice in Wonderland, which just happens to be the 394th collaborative effort between director Tim Burton and Hollywood A-lister Johnny Depp. (Just kidding, it’s actually only their seventh, but it seems like a lot more, doesn’t it?)

Based on the novels “Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland” and “Through the Looking-Glass” penned by Lewis Carroll nearly a century and a half ago, Alice in Wonderland seems to be tailor-made for the Burton/Depp combo… it’s a truly bizarre story, filled with bizarre circumstances and equally bizarre characters. Perhaps the only normal character is Alice (played by relatively inexperienced Australian actress Mia Wasikowska), a 19-year-old girl from Victorian England who accidentally falls down a hole while chasing an enigmatic white rabbit. She finds herself back in Wonderland, a place that she had visited ten years before but can’t remember the details.

Wonderland is now under the rule of the tyrannical Red Queen (Helena Bonham carter, appearing in her sixth STRAIGHT Burton film), who terrorizes her subjects with the Jabberwock, a dragon-like creature that Alice must slay to end her rule. Depp, of course, plays the legendary Mad Hatter, throwing himself into the part in a way that only he can. There are a bevy of other famous faces in the cast, including Anne Hathaway, Crispin Glover, Steven Fry and Michael Sheen.

I mentioned that there were question marks surrounding this film, but in my mind, it’s only because of the bizarre-ness of the story, something that may be off-putting to people looking for a nice simply story, as well as those who think that the Depp/Burton marriage may be played out. But on the other hand, it’s Disney, it’s rated PG, it comes in at a crisp 109 minutes, and, lest we forget, it is about to kick Avatar to the curb in most of the 3D and 3D IMAX facilities in the country, a spot it will occupy, I figure, for three weeks (after which How to Train Your Dragon will come calling.)

Alice in Wonderland is estimated to be coming out in 3,400 theaters or so, but I have no idea if that number includes the aforementioned 3D and IMAX theaters. Avatar has well and truly run its course, and I think that those who made it the #1 film of all time are ready for something new and colorful, and this film could easily fit the bill.

Therefore, I am going to “conservatively” predict that Alice in Wonderland will open with $46 million its first three days, and will glean eleven Top 5 points, six PTA and a User Rating around 7.4, on its way to a total take of about $120 million. For $32 in the March Ultimate leagues ($34 in Box Office), that’s a pretty fair trade, though I still think How to Train Your Dragon is a slightly safer pick, given that DreamWorks is on a pretty good roll and the marketing blitz for that film has already started.

The only other wide-release film this weekend is Brooklyn’s Finest, a gritty cop/crime drama directed by Antoine Fuqua, the man behind the camera for Training Day, arguably one of the best cop dramas of the last decade. One of that film’s stars, Ethan Hawke, also stars in Brooklyn’s Finest, along with Richard Gere, Don Cheadle and Wesley Snipes (making HIS first big-screen appearance in six years… whatever happened with that whole tax-evasion thingy? Does anyone know?)

I’d elaborate on the plot, but some of the professional reviews I’ve read seem to agree that said plot is sketchy at best (30% Fresh on 3/10 at RT), so I’ll just give an overview. Basically, the film follows the lives of three police officers over the course of one harrowing week, as they attempt to keep their wits (and their covers) about them as they try to foil a huge drug operation. Gere plays Eddie Dugan, a veteran cop mere days from retirement; Hawke plays Sal Proceda, a “cop on the edge” who is desperate to find a way to support his large family; and Cheadle plays Clarence “Tango” Butler, currently deep undercover with his prison buddy Caz (Snipes), one of the city’s most infamous drug dealers.

This film has been postponed several times to get to this point, and I can’t help but wonder if that will have a negative effect on the outcome of this film. The good news for you is, it’s only $8 in Ultimate, which could very well buy you four or five Top 5 points, four PTA and a tremendous User Rating (which is a polar opposite to its RT score: it currently sits at 8.5 with well over 600 votes, which means it probably won’t drop more than a point during its run). It is poised very well; in a week that opens up a league, it will score very well in all categories. I don’t think it’s worth its $7 price tag in Box Office, however, as I doubt it will end up pulling much more than $28 million overall.

About the only reason I could think of for recommending this week’s only limited release film, Stolen Lives (aka Stolen), is the fact that because it is one of only three films debuting this week, it is guaranteed to get at least three PTA points… that is, assuming that its distributor, IFC, ends up reporting its numbers at all. Still, $3 for a guaranteed 3 PTA points would seem like a pretty sweet deal.

What a shame the actual movie looks like a rehashed mess. Jon Hamm (Mad Men) stars as Tom Adkins, a detective who becomes obsessed with work after his ten-year-old son goes missing. He copes by throwing himself into the case of a young boy whose skeletal remains were unearthed after having been murdered 50 years earlier. Hoping against hope that solving this murder will lead him on the path to redemption, he begins to suspect that the murdered boy and his son are somehow connected. Josh Lucas, Rhona Mitra and James Van Der Beek co-star.

Like I said, you are guaranteed three PTA points by choosing this film, but be warned: you’ll also be inheriting Stolen's terrible User Rating, which currently sits at 5.0 (with only 30 votes, but I’d be surprised if it goes up at all). Pick your poison, I guess.


My predictions for the weekend of March 5-7, 2010:

1. Alice in Wonderland - $46 million
2. Shutter Island - $13 million
3. Brooklyn’s Finest - $12 million
4. Cop Out - $10 million
5. Avatar - $8 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I’ll have a very busy week, with no less than EIGHT new titles to talk about, all coming out on March 12th, including: Green Zone, an action drama re-teaming the potent combination of Matt Damon and his Bourne Identity director, Paul Greengrass; Remember Me, a romantic drama starring Twilight hunk Robert Pattinson and Lost’s Emilie de Ravin; Our Family Wedding, a screwball comedy starring about two families whose cultures clash head-on when two of their members decide to marry; She’s Out of My League, a comedy starring Jay Baruchel as a geeky loner who is dumbfounded when a gorgeous hottie asks him out; as well as four limited-release films.

Later!




Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
silversurfer19
John Rambo
Posts: 7726
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 3:34 pm
Location: pretty much the ass end of the universe

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by silversurfer19 »

I think your predictions are way out for the two openers. With its IMAX locations I fully expect Alice to open in the mid-high 60s at least, and I have seen on various prediction pages numbers in the 80s. Of course that is probably a little high, but $46m is way too low. On the other hand, Brooklyn's Finest is opening quite limited for a wide release, and I don't expect it to get a PTA too much over $5000 which would suggest a $9m opening weekend. Also, expect Cop Out to dip hard following bad word of mouth, possibly sub $9m.

Finally, any word on the updates on MMG? I've been checking my leagues and we seem to still be stuck at the Valentines Day/ Wolfman/ Percy Jackson numbers....

User avatar
undeadmonkey
Leon
Posts: 4413
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by undeadmonkey »

That's a very conservative estimate for Wonderland. Other websites have mid $70s to upper $80s

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by numbersix »

Yeah, it seems as if Alice is going to be huge, despite a few early negative reviews. But the whole boycott was lifted which means I expect Alice to break the March BO record and make about $75-$80mil this weekend. Scary.

User avatar
silversurfer19
John Rambo
Posts: 7726
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 3:34 pm
Location: pretty much the ass end of the universe

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by silversurfer19 »

Most of the early negative reviews seem to have come from sources I place no trust in. I mean, News Of The World?! Most of my tried and tested reviewers seem to have scored the movie favourably, which at least on a personal level means good things, and with an overall consensus of 2:1 in favour of positive reviews so far, as well as the Disney marketing machine and the added bonus of 3D, I'm quietly confident the movie can go on to make in excess of $160m which would be an amazing total for a March opener.

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by Buscemi »

The main theatre here is going to play FIVE prints of Alice In Wonderland. Hell, Avatar only got three prints when that opened.

Anyways, I expect a $75 million opening and a $160 million finish. I see word of mouth being terrible and the film sinking like a stone (kids will probably find it too scary, Depp fans will be disappointed that the movie isn't about him, parents will be disappointed that it isn't more like the 1951 version and so on).

However, it should be Number One for two weeks straight (due to a very weak March 12th lineup, in which the biggest opener will likely still be considered a disappointment).
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
becs
Marty McFly
Posts: 788
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 10:27 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by becs »

Regardless of everything I am still slightly scared for Alice. Every person I know here thinks it looks too dark or weird and doesn't plan to see it, though I think a lot of people will be drawn into the theaters purely out of curiosity.
At least we can abort fetuses. Bad grammar and language last a lifetime.
- Donte

User avatar
silversurfer19
John Rambo
Posts: 7726
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 3:34 pm
Location: pretty much the ass end of the universe

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by silversurfer19 »

Alice is the first major family movie since Percy Jackson, it is the first movie to start taking screens off Avatar and it is being marketed to death by Disney. No matter what your fear are, it will certainly do very well. Even Charlie And The Chocolate Factory, which a lot of you on here hated made over $200m (though granted it was released in the summer), so I would expect minimum of $140m. And for the record I know a lot of people with families who have been waiting for this movie for a while.

J.I.
The McMannus Brothers
Posts: 105
Joined: October 26th, 2009, 6:19 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by J.I. »

Alice has everything going for it. It has had great marketing with the Super Bowl, the Olympics, and the trailer attached to Avatar in 3D and IMAX 3D. The audience for this movie is huge, covering everybody from kids to teens to adults. The 3D and IMAX 3D will not only provide a boost in ticket prices but will really get people to see it after Avatar blew them away. The film has good star power with Johnny Depp, Anne Hathaway, and director Tim Burton. The film is getting good reviews so far and comes out in a dead marketplace where not only did one movie make over $20 million last weekend, but the top 3 movies of last weekend were all R-rated. And tracking is absolutely insane for this film, llike $100 million opening weekend insane.

So I'm going to predict about an $80 million opening weekend, but it could go higher.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by transformers2 »

Alice In Wonderland should do well. Besides the family aspect it has the emo,stoner and drug addict market on lockdown.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by Buscemi »

But which audience will stick around for its second week? My money is on the emo crowd.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
undeadmonkey
Leon
Posts: 4413
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by undeadmonkey »

I read that Alice in Wonderlands matinees are outselling Avatar, Could Alice open with $100M+....

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by Buscemi »

Early Friday estimates:

Alice In Wonderland $35-40 million ($100 million is possible but I expect a Saturday drop of around 20-30% due to fanboy effect following by a sharp Sunday drop due to Oscars)
Brooklyn's Finest $5 million ($13 million possible, surprised by this number due to the number of theatres and Overture's low-key prints and advertising campaign despite its Super Bowl ad last month)
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by numbersix »

I suspect will get a higher Saturday than Friday due to the kiddie-bounce. It's not emo kids alone who are making this flick earn $40million on an opening Friday. Alice may earn up to $120 million on its opening weekend

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/5

Post by transformers2 »

Im with you Boosh the emo crowd is the most likely to stay out.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

Locked