SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

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Shrykespeare
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SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by Shrykespeare »

What recession? I mean, seriously! You look at the front page of any local newspaper, it will probably include some tale of woe about rising foreclosures, plummeting real estate valuations, failing business and lack of viable employment. And yet, in the midst of the country’s worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, not only has Avatar managed to crank out nearly $700 million domestically, but the last three box office champs to succeed Avatar have managed to pump out extremely respectable numbers: three weeks ago, Dear John brought in a very respectable $30 million; two weeks ago, Valentine’s Day took full advantage of the holiday in its title, scoring a whopping $56 million in its first three days (though it did drop nearly 70% in its second weekend); and this past weekend, Martin Scorsese’s Shutter Island powered to a very impressive $41 million despite being shown in less than 3,000 theaters.

Whatever can this mean? Well, an optimistic view would suggest that people are finding more solace in going to the movies, which are, after all, still a relatively cheap source of entertainment for oneself, one’s significant other, and/or one’s family. The above numbers are very good for February, and they don’t stop there: even Percy Jackson and The Wolfman have done pretty well. That’s five success stories out of six major releases (From Paris With Love being the only flop). Can the last week of February avoid the pre-March swoon that it did last year? (You do remember the Jonas Brothers movie, right?)

Well, there’s one film this week that I will be recommend VERY strongly. But I’ll get to that a little bit later. The first wide-release movie on the docket today is Cop Out, which marks, if my math and memory are correct, the FOURTEENTH film in the career of Bruce Willis that he has played a member of law enforcement. (Note: This includes all four Die Hard films, but does not include the numerous occasions on which he played soldiers, or Unbreakable, where he played a security guard.)

Needless to say, Balding Bruce, who will turn 55 in March, is very comfortable in roles where he gets to carry a badge and a gun, drive really fast and kick some ass. He’s also no stranger to comedy, and neither is Cop Out director Kevin “Silent Bob” Smith, whose past works include such off-kilter films as Mallrats, Chasing Amy, Clerks, Dogma and 2008’s Zack and Miri Make a Porno. He seems to be coveting a wider demographic with this one, and he may just get it.

In Cop Out, Willis plays NYPD detective Jimmy Monroe, who hopes to sell one of his vintage baseball cards in order to pay for his daughter’s wedding. But when the card is stolen by a memorabilia-obsessed thief, he recruits a new partner (SNL alum Tracy Morgan) to track down the card… and along the way, find themselves smack in the middle of a situation involving gangsters and money laundering. Kevin Pollack, Adam Brody and the ever-immature Seann William Scott co-star.

Set to bow in over 3,100 theaters, Cop Out has a very good shot at #1 this weekend, though it will depend entirely on how well Shutter Island holds. Scorsese’s latest has gotten very good reviews and equally good word-of-mouth, which could mean a small drop in its second week. But I will still give the nod to Cop Out because of its lead actor in a comfortable role, its placement in a successive row of February successes, and the fact that there really won’t be another action-comedy for another three weeks (The Bounty Hunter).

It will run you $12 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues for February, which is a very low price for a film that might bring you as many as ten Top 5 points, four PTA and $60 million. I wouldn’t count on the User Rating being all that high, given that the film is just another vehicle for Willis to shoot off guns as well as his mouth. But since From Paris With Love was able to scare up a so-so 6.5 rating, Cop Out probably won’t fare much worse. I’d say pick this up.

February is probably the third-biggest month for horror movies, after October and January. The Wolfman has cleared $50 million in two weeks, which isn’t too bad for a horror film (though most people who saw it would like their money back, including myself). And the only other horror film to come out in February 2010 is The Crazies, which will be coming to roughly 2,400 theaters this Friday.

The Crazies is a remake of 1973 film of the same name, which was written and directed by horror legend George A. Romero. In that story, a biological weapon is accidentally released upon the inhabitants of a small town. In the 2010 version, while I am unsure of the origins of the toxin involved, the results would appear to be the same: namely, something is put into the water supply of the town of Ogden Falls, Iowa, something extremely nasty that causes normal people to fly into a homicidal rage and kill everyone in sight.

The film stars Timothy Olyphant as the sheriff of Ogden Falls, who is perplexed by the sudden mysterious behavior of people he’s known for years. But when the situation spirals out of control, he must try to simply escape with his wife (Radha Mitchell) and family… that is, if they can slip by the government forces who have cordoned off the town and seem hell-bent on keeping the contagion from spreading at all costs.

Honestly, the premise doesn’t look all that far removed from recent films like 28 Days/Weeks Later, Zombieland, Carriers or a host of other uninfected-people-running-from-infected-people movies. I’ve seen some advertising for this film, but probably not enough. I expect far, far better from the brain trust behind the reboot of A Nightmare on Elm Street, which is coming at the end of April.

The Crazies will run you $8 in Ultimate ($9 in Box Office), which, for me, is too much. Given its tired premise, its theater count and Avatar’s slow, slow drop, I put this film to debut no higher than #4 this weekend, with barely more than $10 million. Two Top 5, no PTA, $25 million and a middling User Rating are not worth this dollar amount. Shop elsewhere.

The first of this week’s two limited-release films is A Prophet (Un Prophete), and not only is it my PTA pick of the week, it may be my PTA pick of the SEASON… or at least, it would be if it had come out earlier in the month. Due to the MMG rule that states that a February movie cannot earn PTA points in a March league (dammit), it means that this very worthy film will probably not earn more than the five PTA points that it CAN earn (unless I’m missing something very, very basic). (ETA: I am. Shame on me.)

In a nutshell, this is a French film with English subtitles, which has pretty much everything you could possibly want in a PTA champ: a boatload of awards (including the Grand Prix at the 2009 Cannes Film Festival), a nomination for Best Foreign Film in next month’s Oscars (for which is should and probably will win), a simply monstrous RT score (98% Fresh on 50, yes 50 out of 51 positive reviews – wanna bet the one panner was lynched?), and an amazing User Rating (8.2 with well over 4,000 votes). Need I go on?

The film follows Malik El Djebena (Tahar Rahim), an illiterate young man who is sentenced to six years in prison, where he immediately falls under the sway of a Corsican Mafia group led by the ruthless Luciani (Niels Arestrup). In order to survive, he becomes Luciana’s man, which includes the brutal murder of Luciani’s rivals. But while doing this, he secretly grows in intelligence (and literacy) until he can find the strength to step out of Luciani’s shadow.

This film has been compared to The Godfather as “the greatest organized crime movie EVER”. My good friend Chienfantome says that it may very well be the best prison movie of all time (Shawshank included). God, if only there were a way to squeeze more than one week’s PTA out of this!

Well, anyway, the good news is, for $7, you can buy yourself a surefire 5 PTA points and a terrific User Rating, which is not too shabby. And if it does indeed win the Oscar for Best Foreign Film, it may be rewarded with a wider release and a few bucks too. I have it on almost all of my January and February Ultimate slates. In a game where most films are a crap-shoot, this one is as close to a dead-bang cinch as there is. If only I knew exactly what its theater count would be, I could be 100% certain (instead of only 99).

The final film this weekend is Prodigal Sons, a documentary by (and largely about) filmmaker Kimberly Reed. Kim grew up in a small Montana town with her two brothers, one of whom (Mark) was adopted. Being different from the rest of his family, Mark was an underachiever who dropped out of high school and then suffered a head injury at the age of 21… and then he found out that he was the grandson of Hollywood legends Rita Hayworth and Orson Welles.

But it gets stranger. You see, when Kim was young, she was actually a boy. And when she returns home after having had sexual reassignment surgery, with her brother in tow… well, you can imagine the reaction of her family.

For $3 in Ultimate, this MAY get you a few PTA points, if you think it’s worth the gamble. Documentaries often fare well, but some don’t. And if it doesn’t, it does have a pretty good User Rating (7.1, but with only 88 votes). My advice: if you’re looking for something to spend your last few bucks on, try something on less shaky ground.


My predictions for the weekend of February 26-28, 2010:

1. Cop Out – $23 million
2. Shutter Island - $21 million
3. Avatar - $12 million
4. The Crazies - $11 million
5. Percy Jackson - $8 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the spring season starts up as we usher in the month of March with two very different films with fairly impressive casts, and they are: Alice in Wonderland, another re-telling of the classic – and still bizarre – Lewis Carroll story, which also happens to be the eighth(?) collaboration between potent director/actor team Tim Burton and Johnny Depp; as well as Brooklyn’s Finest, a gritty cop drama from director Antoine Fuqua and starring veteran actors Richard Gere, Don Cheadle, Wesley Snipes and Ethan Hake.

Later!




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undeadmonkey
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by undeadmonkey »

I think Wolfman can qualify for a semi-flop, it's production budget is at $150M. Although it's worldwide total is at 90M, I dont see it getting above the red theatrically.

Also, I wonder if you could gauge depression/recession levels by movie tickets sold?? interesting thought
Last edited by undeadmonkey on February 22nd, 2010, 11:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Normally, I'd say Cop Out wouldn't come near a $25M OW, but WB has ads and TV spots all over the place for this one. I just hope it's as funny as it looks.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by Leestu »

Shrykespeare wrote:
The first of this week’s two limited-release films is A Prophet (Un Prophete), and not only is it my PTA pick of the week, it may be my PTA pick of the SEASON… or at least, it would be if it had come out earlier in the month. Due to the MMG rule that states that a February movie cannot earn PTA points in a March league (dammit), it means that this very worthy film will probably not earn more than the five PTA points that it CAN earn (unless I’m missing something very, very basic).
Can't it continue to earn PTA points thru March in the Jan and Feb leagues?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by Buscemi »

Actually, I think The Crazies will outopen Cop Out. I have seen way more ads for The Crazies (including a Super Bowl spot) than I have Cop Out, not to mention general hype seems higher. Also, I get the idea that Cop Out is only getting 3,000 theatres due to the Kevin Smith Southwest Airlines incident. Otherwise, the count would have nearly the same as The Crazies.

However, there is the case of Liberty Media trying to close Overture Films (unless the people who run the company can cough up $300 million to buy Starz Media) and therefore reducing a potential 3,000 count on The Crazies to only 2,400 theatres. But The Crazies only cost $12 million to make so it should make a profit no matter what happens.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by numbersix »

Bousch, I'm willing to bet money - any amount- that Cop Out will have a higher PTA than The Crazies. Regardless of the publicity you've seen and the "general hype" you mention, The Crazies has a very limited appeal, and the horror genre has been lagging (unless it's reality-horror).

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by Buscemi »

The websites have been reporting on The Crazies way more than Cop Out. The horror fans seem to be interested in it and the ads make it look like Zach Snyder's Dawn of the Dead (a film that managed $60 million domestic).

Meanwhile, the websites have been talking more about Kevin Smith's airline seat incident than his movie. And his highest grossing movie only did $30 million domestic. Though sometimes director incidents call help a movie (see Roman Polanski's legal problems and The Ghost Writer's opening weekend PTA, of which I believe was mainly successful due to Polanski being frequently in the news), Kevin Smith's relative overexposure with media outlets has turned him into box office poison. If he stayed out of the public eye more often, his movies would make a lot more than they do now.

And also, can you think of the last time that a Bruce Willis comedy did well at the box office?

My predictions:
Shutter Island $18 million
The Crazies $14 million
Cop Out $12 million
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numbersix
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by numbersix »

All interesting points. All you have to do is look at how the The Whole 10 Yards bombed. But Bruce Willis doesn't really do comedies that much, especially as of late, so it's hard to call it a trend. I can't help but wonder if the public will see Cop Out as an action-comedy and associate it Die Hard 4 (well, it WAS laughable) and check it out.

As for the airline issue, do you really think it was any more than a minor story of the day that most have already forgotton, and that the average person probably didn't hear about? Besides, the airline actually apologised to Smith so it's more negative publicity for them and positive publicity for Smith.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by Brockster »

Ok, I'm severely confused on the PTA rule...why can't Prophet earn PTA into March for the Feb-Apr leagues? Is this to say that every limited release movie that comes out at the end of each month should not be picked? If so, this is an utterly dumb rule. Someone please explain this to me so I can drop Prophet from my leagues if it's true.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by numbersix »

Don't think the PTA rule works like that. I think Shryke meant that only in the Feb-Apr leagues will A Prophet have the potential to earn PTa points over a long period.

The problem is that for the new leagues (Mar-May) A Prophet doesn't factor as PTA points only count for films released within a league's period (i.e. for the Mar-May league onyl films realease in March, April, and May can score PTa points). If you have A Prophet for the Jan-Mar and Feb-Apr leagues then you're sorted.

Am I wrong on this?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by Shrykespeare »

Oh, so for the February leagues it can earn PTA points into March?

Whew. I feel SOOOO much better now.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by Brockster »

Can we clarify this w/ the Italians?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by becs »

No that's definitely correct, they agreed that each season will use its own PTA ranking of only films available during that season for the duration of that season.
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numbersix
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by numbersix »

I double checked it and taking Edge of Darkness as an example. It earned 3 PTA points for the last weekend of Jan and 1 PTA point the first weekend of Feb. And it does indeed have 4 PTA points in all the leagues I've slated it in. So yeah, A Prophet can potentially earn points through March, making it a really good pick (and it's a real good movie also, and like Chien I can't think of a better prison movie!)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 2/26

Post by Geezer »

Can someone explain to me exactly where we are at with the Italian website? Like what is updated, what isn't, why does it say people have spent too much money but hasn't been adjusted. I'm just confused. I kinda miss the old system. We could always count on Shryke.
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