SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/2, 7/4

[Chienfantome]

They certainly won't, but I'm afraid a lot of players in Hollywood have a much more binary vision of things than they should.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Transformers, $10.6M
Tammy, $6.4M
Dragon 2, $2.8M
Earth to Echo, $2.6M
Deliver Us, $2.5M
Jump Street, $2.5M
Maleficent, $1.8M
Jersey Boys, $1.8M
Think Too, $1.3M
Edge of Tom, $1.0M



Weekend Projections:

Transformers, $38.5M
Tammy, $21.5M ($33.2M 5-day)
Dragon 2, $10M
Jump Street, $9.8M
Earth to Echo, $9.7M ($14.9M 5-day)
Deliver Us, $9.2M ($14.7M 5-day)
Maleficent, $6.5M
Jersey Boys, $6.2M
Think Too, $4.8M
Edge of Tom, $3.7M
America, $3.2M

[W]

Everyone keeps saying Tammy is "underperforming." What were the expectations on this one? I seem remembering people saying "I don't know what to think of it." It's a first time director (McCarthy's husband), first time writers (McCarthy and her husband), "original," one star comedy that made 1.5 times its budget in the first five days.

The Heat and Identity Thief were done by directors with hugely successful rated R comedies in the past, double the budget of Tammy, and co-starred recognizable comedic actors. Deadline is comparing Tammy to those two and Bridesmaids (where she was, what? fifth banana?) and saying "her schtick is getting old." Whether that's true or not to some, McCarthy obviously has a following big enough to make it more than worth it. This thing is going to quadruple its budget. If I'm the company putting up the dough, I'd say "Here's $20 M more, write something else."

[numbersix]

I think part of the issue is its low cinemascore. People going in expecting a comedy are coming out disappointed, and while that 5-day estimate isn't bad, if it has bad legs it'll be a disappointment.

And remember, even if it only cost $21m to make it cost at least another $30m to market (if not several times that), meaning it'll need to hit $100m worldwide to earn its budget and P&A costs back before it starts turning a profit at the theatrical stage.

[Chienfantome]

Plus as far as the game goes, it clearly is underperforming. The film is priced at $21 or so, and for that price you expect at the very least $80M, and it clearly won't make that.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 11:
5 points - Transformers: Age of Extinction, $36.4M
4 points - Tammy, $21.2M ($32.9M 5-day)
3 points - Deliver Us From Evil, $9.5M ($15M 5-day)
2 points - 22 Jump Street, $9.4M
1 point - How to Train Your Dragon 2, $8.7M
Earth to Echo, $8.2M
Maleficent, $6.1M
Jersey Boys, $5.2M
Think Like a Man Too, $4.9M
Edge of Tomorrow, $3.6M
America, $2.7M


PTA (May/Jun):
5 points - Transformers
4 points - Begin Again
3 points - Tammy
2 points - Yves St. Laurent
1 point - Snowpiercer


No word yet on Life Itself.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Color me surprised that Begin Again and Snowpiercer both still grabbed PTA points.

[Chienfantome]

You forgot "Yves Saint laurent" which would be the one getting 2 PTA points this weekend...

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals:

Top 11:
5 points - Transformers: Age of Extinction, $37.1M
4 points - Tammy, $21.6M
3 points - 22 Jump Street, $9.8M
2 points - Deliver Us From Evil, $9.7M
1 point - How to Train Your Dragon 2, $9.0M
Earth to Echo, $8.4M
Maleficent, $6.2M
Jersey Boys, $5.2M
Think Like a Man Too, $4.9M
Edge of Tomorrow, $3.7M
America, $2.7M

PTA (May/Jun):
5 points - Transformers: Age of Extinction, $8,753
4 points - Begin Again, $7,180
3 points - Tammy, $6,227
2 points - Life Itself, $5,714
1 point - Yves St. Laurent, $4,714

PTA (Jul):
5 points - Tammy, $6,227
4 points - Life Itself, $5,714
3 points - Deliver Us From Evil, $3,195
2 points - Earth to Echo, $2,590

[BrocksterDuex]

Damn. I was hoping for much better from Life Itself...I would have thought cinephiles would be lining up to see it. Once again, my weakness is exposed (I suck at picking PTA movies).

[Chienfantome]

Well I'm disappointed about it too. Damn, I'll never understand US cinephiles.

[JohnErle]

It did reasonably for a documentary, but I swapped it out for a different $1 movie at the last minute for a couple of reasons:

It's available on VOD already, and VOD seems like a reasonable alternative for watching a documentary, especially one about a man who people were accustomed to seeing for free from the comfort of their homes.

The doc apparently focuses a lot on Ebert's final years and his illness, and people who loved him will probably prefer to remember him in his prime.

After his death, there was a huge outpouring of emotion and a ton of TV retrospectives about Ebert's life and career, so much like the Mandela movie last year, this doc feels a bit after the fact.

I'll probably watch it someday, but I read his memoir immediately after his death, and I've watched tons of old clips on YouTube, but I don't feel any need to rush out and see the documentary.

[Chienfantome]

Don't try and find an excuse for US cinephiles John. They've made a mistake that is costing us PTA points. What were they thinking ?!

[numbersix]

It did reasonably for a documentary, but I swapped it out for a different $1 movie at the last minute for a couple of reasons:

It's available on VOD already, and VOD seems like a reasonable alternative for watching a documentary, especially one about a man who people were accustomed to seeing for free from the comfort of their homes.

The doc apparently focuses a lot on Ebert's final years and his illness, and people who loved him will probably prefer to remember him in his prime.

After his death, there was a huge outpouring of emotion and a ton of TV retrospectives about Ebert's life and career, so much like the Mandela movie last year, this doc feels a bit after the fact.

I'll probably watch it someday, but I read his memoir immediately after his death, and I've watched tons of old clips on YouTube, but I don't feel any need to rush out and see the documentary.

Also, it's Magnolia, who are focusing less and less on theatrical. You rarely see their films win big in PTA.

[BrocksterDuex]

You rarely see their films win big in PTA.

Thank you for hiding this nugget until after the weekend was over...jerk