SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/13

[W]

I wouldn't be surprised to see them swap positions next week with Dragon coming out on top. Jersey Boys looks like a non-starter and Think Like A Man has narrow appeal.

I'm still disappointed with that number for Dragon if it doesn't improve after the Saturday bump. I need it to deliver at least $150 million by the end of the month or I could be out early in BO FY.

The first Think like a Man opened to $33 M in April. This will be in that ballpark or slightly higher and I don't see both 22 Jump Street and Dragon hitting that number their second week.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

22 Jump Street, $25M
How to Train Your Dragon 2, $18.5M
The Fault in Our Stars, $6.3M
Maleficent, $5.8M
Edge of Tomorrow, $4.6M
X-Men: Days of Future Past, $2.6M


Weekend Projections:

22 Jump Street, $63M
How to Train Your Dragon 2, $54M
Maleficent, $20.5M
The Fault in Our Stars, $17.5M
Edge of Tomorrow, $16M
X-Men: Days of Future Past, $9.5M
Godzilla, $3.4M
A Million Ways to Die in the West, $3.0M
Neighbors, $2.6M
Chef, $2.3M

[JohnErle]

I wouldn't be surprised to see them swap positions next week with Dragon coming out on top. Jersey Boys looks like a non-starter and Think Like A Man has narrow appeal.

I'm still disappointed with that number for Dragon if it doesn't improve after the Saturday bump. I need it to deliver at least $150 million by the end of the month or I could be out early in BO FY.

The first Think like a Man opened to $33 M in April. This will be in that ballpark or slightly higher and I don't see both 22 Jump Street and Dragon hitting that number their second week.

Animated kiddie flicks usually have the best holds, especially ones that open softer than expected like Dragon seems to be doing, so if it drops by 40% or less it could easily beat that $35 million range for Think Like A Man 2. Jump St will probably fall harder so Think might claim the #2 spot, but I still think Dragon has a good shot at #1 next week.

[silversurfer19]

Worth noting the strong hold from Edge Of Tomorrow, obviously the good word of mouth has benefited it's second weekend, while TFIOS seems like it may be struggling already.

[Chienfantome]

Very strong hold from Edge of Tomorrow, considering all the huge drops for blockbusters this season, it's nice to see that a good blockbuster manages to hold well after a disappointing start.
As for whether Think like a man can beat the sequels' second weekend, I don't know. Those two films, with excellent word of mouth, are gonna have strong holds. They may all be very close.

[empire13]

I think 22 Jump Street will only fall about 50%. That would put weekend #2 at about $32-$33 million. I think that Dragon will have a much smaller drop, say 35-40% which would put it at $34-$35 million. And, I believe Think Like a Man 2 will likely fall right in this range as well, so that means there should be a real fight for #1 next weekend. Should prove very interesting.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

5 points - 22 Jump Street, $60.0M
4 points - How to Train Your Dragon 2, $50.0M
3 points - Maleficent, $19.0M
2 points - Edge of Tomorrow, $16.2M
1 point - The Fault in Our Stars, $15.7M
X-Men: Days of Future Past, $9.5M
Godzilla, $3.2M
A Million Ways to Die in the West, $3.1M
Neighbors, $2.5M
Chef, $2.3M
Blended, $1.6M

So Maleficent and Edge of Tomorrow drop less than 45%, while Fault in Our Stars drops a Twilight-like 67%.

On the BO front, Spider-Man 2 is at $198M and may yet make it to $200M. Godzilla is at $191.3M and still has some work to do. X-Men is now at $205M and counting. And it would seem that Maleficent will reach that milestone as well.


PTA:
5 points - 22 Jump Street
4 points - The Rover
3 points - How to Train Your Dragon 2
2 points - Obvious Child
1 point (Apr/May) - Maleficent
1 point (Jun) - The Fault in Our Stars

The Signal manages only $1,215 in PTA. No word yet on Policeman.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - 22 Jump Street, $57.1M
4 points - How to Train Your Dragon 2, $49.5M
3 points - Maleficent, $18.5M
2 points - Edge of Tomorrow, $16.2M
1 points - The Fault in Our Stars, $14.8M (-69.2%... holy shit)
X-Men: Days of Future Past, $9.8M
A Million Ways to Die in the West, $3.2M
Godzilla, $3.2M
Neighbors, $2.4M
Chef, $2.2M


PTA:
5 points - 22 Jump Street, $17,263
4 points - The Rover, $14,000
3 points - How to Train Your Dragon 2, $11,627
2 points - Obvious Child, $8,056
1 point (Apr/May) - Maleficent, $5,108
1 point (Jun) - Edge of Tomorrow, $4,615

Policeman, $3,690
The Signal, $1,297





Analysis (BOM):

As expected, highly-anticipated sequels 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2 took the top two spots at the box office this weekend. It came as quite the surprise, though, that the R-rated comedy easily took first place ahead of the DreamWorks Animation movie.

Playing at 3,306 locations, 22 Jump Street opened to a fantastic $57.1 million this weekend. That's the second-biggest opening ever for an R-rated comedy behind The Hangover Part II, and ahead of hits like Neighbors and Ted. It's also up a whopping 57 percent from 21 Jump Street's $36 million debut in March 2012.

22 Jump Street's strong start is likely due to a combination of goodwill from the first movie and a strong marketing campaign this time around. 21 Jump Street came out just over two years ago—the ideal wait time between a movie and its sequel—and had a strong run thanks in part to good word-of-mouth. That movie promised that stars Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum would be heading to college next, and marketing for the latest entry suggested it was going to deliver on that promise. It also helped that the movie received a strong promotional push from Hill and Tatum, who have each seen their stars rise in recent years.

22 Jump Street's audience skewed younger (56 percent under the age of 25) and was split evenly between men and women. As usual with younger-skewing movies, 22 Jump Street was very front-loaded through the weekend: around 44 percent of its earnings came on Friday.

Even still, the movie's solid reviews (83 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and word-of-mouth ("A-" CinemaScore) suggest it will hold up decently in the coming weeks. Ultimately, 22 Jump Street will earn over $150 million without breaking a sweat, and could even come close to $200 million.

This is the fourth movie so far from directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller. All four movies opened in first place with over $30 million. The first three closed with over $120 million, and this is guaranteed to join that club as well. Even more impressive is that 22 Jump Street is the second $50 million opener of the year for Lord/Miller after February's The LEGO Movie.

In second place, DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon 2 opened to $49.5 million. That's an improvement over the first movie's $43.7 million, though it's far from the type of gain expected given the fact that the first Dragon is only of the most beloved animated movies of the past decade. It's also the first June animated release to fall short of $60 million since Ratatouille opened to $47 million back in 2007.

There are likely a few reasons behind Dragon's lackluster debut. First, the movie's marketing positioned it as a dramatic action/adventure, while only hinting at the movie's humor. Historically, the most successful animated movies put laughs first and story second. This calls to mind action-heavy DreamWorks Animation sequel Kung Fu Panda 2, which was unable to leverage goodwill from the first movie in to any kind of sequel bump (it ultimately earned much less than its predecessor).

Another factor is the four-year gap between movies. While audiences loved the first movie at the time, the excitement has surely died down a bit during the long wait. The brand did stay active during that time thanks to the DreamWorks' Dragons show, though that also may have reduced the must-see factor for the big-screen follow-up (if you're seeing these characters for free on TV, is the movie worth the ticket price?).

Dragon's audience was 53 percent female and 56 percent under the age of 25. They awarded it a strong "A" CinemaScore. The movie faces very little competition for the remainder of Summer, and will certainly hold up well in the long run. It's unlikely, though, that it comes anywhere close to matching its predecessor's $218 million.

In third place, Maleficent eased 46 percent to $18.5 million this weekend. On Saturday, it eclipsed Snow White and the Huntsman's total, and has now earned $163 million.

Thanks to strong word-of-mouth, Edge of Tomorrow dipped a light 44 percent to $16.2 million this weekend. In comparison, Tom Cruise's Oblivion fell 52 percent in its second weekend. Edge has now earned $56.6 million, and could ultimately come close to $100 million.

After taking first place last weekend, young-adult adaptation The Fault in our Stars wound up in fifth place this weekend with $14.8 million. While a steep drop was expected, the movie's 69 percent decline is still a bit surprising. Through 10 days, Fault has earned $80.8 million.

[Chienfantome]

Who would have thought Dragons would open so "low". I'm glad I didn't rely on it too much.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

TFiOS turning out not to be such a great Ultimates pick - 6 T5 and 4 PTA ain't nothing to write home about, even if that 8.5 IMDb is nice to have.

[Geezer]

I'd agree if it were twice its cost. But it was so cheap, the IMDB and box office are certainly worth the price.

[W]

I'd agree if it were twice its cost. But it was so cheap, the IMDB and box office are certainly worth the price.

I was going to say the same thing. This will be on the winning slate of every league it's available in.

[Chienfantome]

Agreed.

[Spectre]

TFiOS turning out not to be such a great Ultimates pick - 6 T5 and 4 PTA ain't nothing to write home about, even if that 8.5 IMDb is nice to have.

8.5 IMDb, 6 T5, 4 PTA and $100M for at most $14? It's not as big as it could've been but I'll add that to my slates every day of the week.