SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/17

[Shrykespeare]

Lone Survivor shot up the competition in its first weekend of wide release, pulling in an astounding $38M and copping the PTA crown as well. Dropping to second was Frozen, which vaulted over the $300M mark this week and pulling in another $15M. Newcomer The Legend of Hercules managed $8.6M and a fourth place finish, nestled in between December holdovers The Wolf of Wall Street ($9M) and American Hustle ($8.6M).

Because of unforeseen difficulties and a schedule that was sparse to begin with, only fourteen films are on the docket for all of January for game purposes (and that’s over FIVE weekends). Finally, we have a full slate of films this year, with five films debuting this weekend, four of which will be in wide release. This will likely mean that for the first time, 2014 will hold sway on top of the box office charts, as the holdovers gradually lose steam. (Of course, things will go back to being sparse the next two weeks, but whatever.)

The crowdedness of this weekend in particular is likely because Monday, January 20 is Martin Luther King Day, a national holiday. That’s why this weekend will host the year’s first comedy, the year’s first (serious) action film, and the year’s first animated film. The one with the most potential to be a breakout hit is Ride Along (Universal), an action comedy from director Tim Story (who helmed the breakout hit Think Like a Man in 2012).

The film stars the ever-more-increasingly-popular Kevin Hart (hot off Grudge Match, and coming up next month in About Last Night) as Ben Barber, a fast-talking security guard and video-game junkie who wants to tie the knot with his girlfriend Angela (Tika Sumpter). However, in order to make this happen, he has to prove himself worthy to Angela’s skeptical brother, decorated Atlanta P.D. detective James (Ice Cube). After being accepted to the police academy, Ben is invited by James to ride along with him for one shift. But when fate puts them in contact with some of the city’s most notorious criminals, James realizes that Ben’s big mouth may be the biggest obstacle of all. Laurence Fishburne and John Leguizamo co-star, and NBA-er Chris Paul also has a cameo.

Though Ride Along is only scheduled for a 2,000-theater release, don’t be put off; Think Like a Man managed $33M in only 2,015 theaters back in April 2012, and now that Anchorman 2 and A Madea Christmas have started to fade, and with literally ZERO non-romantic, non-animated comedies on the roster for quite some time, Ride Along could potentially dominate by capitalizing the lack of competition in its genre, much like Frozen did with the kiddie dollars.

Ride Along is very generously priced at only $11 in the January Ultimate leagues ($12 in Box Office). For that low price, you could get double-digit Top 5 points, a handful of PTA and a Rating that is anybody’s guess (could it buck the trend of horrible Ratings for largely African-American films? Think Like a Man finished with a respectable 6.5…). I will forecast $31M for the three-day weekend, $75M total. This is pretty much the only January film that is guaranteed an “A-“ score on my “Was It Worth It” column, so grab this. Quickly.




The character of Jack Ryan has kind of become a lesser, Americanized version of James Bond over the past two-plus decades. Think about it: a government agent (okay, he’s technically an analyst, but he can still mix it up), played by multiple actors for multiple directors, created by a well-known author (the recently deceased Tom Clancy). And while the series lacks the action-film punch of, say, the Bourne movies, many of them remain highly regarded and still watched today.

The fourth actor to play the role of Ryan, following in the footsteps of Alec Baldwin, Harrison Ford and Ben Affleck, is Chris Pine (Star Trek). The latest film in the series, entitled Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (Paramount) also differs from the others in the series in that it is not adapted from any of Clancy’s books, and also serves as a reboot that departs from the previous installments. The script was written by Hossein Amini, who also penned the screenplays for such films as Drive, Snow White and the Huntsman and 47 Ronin.

The plot: CIA analyst Ryan accidentally uncovers evidence of an imminent terrorist attack to the U.S.’s financial infrastructure, masterminded by an enigmatic businessman named Victor Cheverin (Kenneth Branagh, who also directed the film), and must use his limited experience to combat the threat, avoid international assassins, and keep his marriage from crumbling. The supporting cast includes Keira Knightley, David Paymer and the suddenly-very-busy Kevin Costner.

All of the previous films in the Jack Ryan series have done pretty well at the box office, the most recent being The Sum of All Fears, which made $118M back in May of 2002. However, January is not May, Jack Ryan is still not James Bond, and Chris Pine still hasn’t shown that he can lead a film to success on his own. And with Lone Survivor opening so hugely, will moviegoers prefer the stylized action of Shadow Recruit over Wahlberg’s latest? I am skeptical.

Assuming Lone Survivor drops less than 50%, a $20M opening for Jack Ryan will still only be good enough for third place. That means probably five Top 5 points, maybe two PTA, a decent Rating and $55M. With a price tag of $21 (in both leagues), you will not get the stats you want from this film. Chalk it up to “wrong place, wrong time”, which is probably the same result it would have gotten had it been released in December, as was originally planned. Pass on this one.




The first cartoon to be release in 2014 is The Nut Job (Open Road Films), which is a Canadian-South Korean collaborative effort directed by Peter Lepeniotis, whose most notable credit thus far was that he served as one of the animators on Toy Story 2. The film features the voice talents of Will Arnett, Brendan Fraser, Liam Neeson, Katherine Heigl, Stephen Lang, and stand-up legends Gabriel Iglesias and Jeff Dunham.

Set in 1959, the main character is Surly (Arnett), a mischievous purple squirrel who, with the help of his rat friend Buddy (Robert Tinkler), plans to solve the dilemma of his neighborhood’s food shortage by planning the ultimate heist: a local nut store. And so he enlists a bevy of accomplices of various species to help him pull off the crime of the century. Who wants to bet that things don’t go as planned?

Well, the disastrous news for The Nut Job is that Frozen, which should by all accounts be on the way out by now, is still going strong. Advertising has already begun for The Lego Movie (Feb. 7), and methinks the demographic that The Nut Job is aiming for will wait a few extra weeks for that film rather than go see this. This one has “I’ll wait for it to come in Redbox in four months” written all over it. I’ll say $10M/$27M, two Top 5, no PTA, and a middling Rating, which, for $13/$11, makes this a damn good Bankrupts pick.




Last and definitely least of the wide-release films is Devil’s Due (Fox), the latest in a way-too-long line of “found footage” supernatural horror films, directed by Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett (who I’ve never heard of). The film stars Zach Gilford (Friday Night Lights) and Allison Miller (Go On) as Zach and Samantha McCall, a newlywed couple who are initially elated to discover that Samantha is pregnant, even though it’s a little earlier than they planned. However, the closer that she gets to term, Samantha’s body undergoes some dark changes that indicate that something terrible is about to come to pass, and all recorded “for posterity” by Zach.

It’s too bad that Eli Roth wasn’t in charge of Devil’s Due’s ad campaign, because he apparently loved the film. Other than that, I have seen or heard no fanfare at all for this film. It might have stood a chance in hell (pun intended) had it gotten the spot that The Marked Ones got, but in this crowded weekend it’ll just get lost in the shuffle. Rosemary’s Baby this ain’t. I’ll predict $7M, no Top 5, one PTA, and $19M total. It’s only $10/$9, but really, why waste even that much?




Since Gloria packed up and moved one week down the road, I replaced it this week with Like Father, Like Son (IFC) ($3 Ult, $1 BO), a Japanese film that won a Jury Prize at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, and was also nominated for the coveted Palme d’Or. It also won awards at Vancouver and San Sebastian last year, and garnered a boatload of critical acclaim for director Hirokazu Koreeda.

The plot is pretty straightforward: Ryoto (Masaharu Fukuyama) is a successful businessman and architect who works hard to provide for his wife Midori (Machiko Ono) and his six-year-old son, Keita. But when a blood test reveals that Keita and another baby were switched at birth, Ryota must make a life-changing decision: whether to choose his true son or the boy that he raised as his own since birth.

I don’t remember a Japanese film ever becoming a PTA champ, since so few Japanese films are ever part of this game, but there’s a first time for everything, right? It has a great pedigree, a great RT score, and a great theater count (two). Plus, the Rating is phenomenal and is unlikely to change. I would say that the odds that Like Father, Like Son gets shut out is practically nil. Since this was a late addition, not many players will know about this choice, so be one of the few to take the plunge. I am.




My predictions for the weekend of January 17-19, 2014:

1. Ride Along - $31 million
2. Lone Survivor - $23 million
3. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit - $20 million
4. The Nut Job - $10 million
5. Frozen - $9 million

PTA (Nov/Dec): Like Father Like Son, Ride Along, Lone Survivor, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, August: Osage County

PTA (Jan): Like Father Like Son, Ride Along, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, The Nut Job, Devil’s Due

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Ride Along – N/A, N/A
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit – N/A, N/A
The Nut Job – 33% (1/3 positive), N/A
Devil’s Due – N/A, N/A
Like Father, Like Son – 77% (27/35 positive), 7.9 (1,765 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, only one film is on the docket as far as wide-release films goes, that being I, Frankenstein, an action fantasy film from the creators of Underworld starring Aaron Eckhart. In limited release, we have Gimme Shelter, a drama starring Vanessa Hudgens, along with Chilean comedy-drama Gloria.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Rip Taylor (comedian) turns 80 on 1/13
Penelope Ann Miller (The Artist, Kindergarten Cop) turns 50 on 1/13
Mark Addy (The Full Monty, Still Standing) turns 50 on 1/14
Kate Moss (supermodel) turns 40 on 1/16
Michelle Obama (First Lady) turns 50 on 1/17
Katey Sagal (Married… With Children, Futurama) turns 60 on 1/19

Later!

[numbersix]

I agree that Ride Along should win the weekend. I've been high on this for quite some time, and think it could open even higher than 30m and make a killing. It's got the right balance of action and comedy.

That said, there is a lot of competition this weekend. Almost direct competition is Jack Ryan. I thought this could do quite well, but I'm not hearing much in terms of buzz. I think it should make more than 55m, but not much more.

I'm not so high on Nut Job, even though it's the first family film since Walking with Dinos, which barely counts as it was such a BO disaster. A low opening and a decent hold is the best I can see for this. And Devil's Due should get a modest opening and an awful hold. Audiences were turned off by Paranormal Activity:MO, so there's not much hope here.

As for Like Father Like Son, while it wasn't as well-received as I Wish, it's certainly the strongest limited film of Jan (though Gloria could be good).

1. Ride Along - $33 million
2. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit - $25 million
3. Lone Survivor - $20 million
4. The Nut Job - $12 million
5. Frozen - $10 million
6. Devil's Due - $9 million

[transformers2]

1.Ride Along $31 mil
2.Lone Survivor $25 mil
3.Jack Ryan $23 mil
4.The Nut Job $16 mil
5.Frozen $10 mil

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Jack Ryan looks so extremely generic, I doubt it breaks out. Or even meets expectations.

Meanwhile, Ride Along does look like a good action comedy that'll play to a diverse and large audience. The Devil's Due and Nut Job should be DOA.

1. Ride Along - $28M
2. Lone Survivor - $20M
3. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit - $17M
4. The Nut Job - $12M
5. Frozen - $10M

[numbersix]

Tracking for 3-day...

Ride Along: 29.7m
Jack Ryan: 15.9m
The Nut Job: 14.5m
Devil's Due: 9.3m

[Geezer]

That sounds about right to me

[Chienfantome]

Ride Along tracking twice better than Ryan. Well. I won't complain.

[JohnErle]

This will be another interesting weekend at the box office. In addition to all these new wide releases, at least one of which should do very well, all nine of the Best Picture nominees are still in theatres and they're all in wide release or damn close, ie. 400+ theatres. These next few weekends will be a good test of whether Oscar noms still have an impact on movie goers.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

The Nut Job - 3,427
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit - 3,387
Ride Along - 2,662
Devil's Due - 2,543
Like Father, Like Son - 2

August: Osage County - expands to 2,051

Also: Gravity and Captain Phillips go back into over 900 theaters; 12 Years a Slave and Dallas Buyers Club also re-expand by several hundred; and Lone Survivor increases its theater count to nearly 3,000.


That's a much higher number for Ride Along than was previously predicted.



Estimates for next week:

I, Frankenstein - 2,700
Gimme Shelter - 350
Gloria - 4

[numbersix]

Oh, and our little film Run and Jump opens in the US next week in 2 theatres (IFC are distributing). Pity it's not in the game. But wish us well!

[Shrykespeare]

Speaking of which, Six, did you ever make any progress on casting the female Irish character you were talking about some weeks ago?

Oh, and good luck.

[empire13]

Yes. Good luck, Six!

[numbersix]

Speaking of which, Six, did you ever make any progress on casting the female Irish character you were talking about some weeks ago?

Oh, and good luck.

Well, we're in the process of getting the script to Abbie Cornish (so thanks to whoever suggested her. Banks?).

[silversurfer19]

Early reports from Deadline suggesting Ride Along is going to be huge, The Nut Job has surprised, while Jack Ryan and Devil's Due look like they are already facing an uphill struggle.

1. Ride Along - $14.5m Fri/ $35m 3 Day/ $40m 4 Day
2. Lone Survivor - $6.6m Fri/ $22.6M 3 Day/ $26.6m 4 Day
3. The Nut Job - $4.7M Fri/ $18m 3 Day/ $24.6m 3 Day
4. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit - $5.3m Fri/ $15.8m 3 Day/ $18.6m 4 Day
5. Frozen - $2.5m Fri/ $12.7m 3 Day/ $17.6m 4 Day
6. American Hustle - $2.8m Fri/ $9.8m 3 Day/ $11.7m 4 Day
7. Devil's Due - $3.4m Fri/ $9.1m 3 Day/ $10.4m 4 Day

Of course, very early days yet, and much could change over the next three days.

[Chienfantome]

At last a film from my year-long draft slate that lives up to what I hoped it might do at the BO !