SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/27, 11/29

[Shrykespeare]

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire performed about as expected, shattering the November OW record with over $161M earned. Thor: The Dark World and The Best Man Holiday took large drops but still finished in second and third, while the weekend’s other new film, Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, crashed and burned with only $8M. On the PTA front, Disney’s Frozen earned $238K in the one theater that was showing it, nearly seven times the PTA that Catching Fire managed.

This is Thanksgiving week, and it’s the holdovers more than the new films that will likely hold sway over the holiday. Catching Fire will doubtless win its second week, and even if it drops over 50%, it should still finish in the $70M range. Frozen will open nationwide in over 3,600 theaters, and because of its pedigree and great reviews, I will predict an $48M for that film, on its way to twelve Top 5 points, nine PTA and $170M overall. The Book Thief and Philomena also expand to 1,000 and 500 theaters, respectively, which will likely end any further PTA output for both films.

Given the massive appeal of both Catching Fire and Frozen, any film opening this weekend will have an impossible job drawing an audience, which is why there is very little in the way of quality opening wide either this week or next week. Still, with all other titles likely dropping below $10M this weekend, the door is open for even mediocre films to get a few Top 5 points, which means that now is as good a time as any for a film like Homefront (Open Road Films) to hit theaters.

Director Gary Fleder (Runaway Jury, The Express) is behind the camera for this thriller, which features action movie star Jason Statham as Phil Broker, a low-level DEA agent who decides to relocate to a small Louisiana town with his daughter Maddy (Izabela Vidovic) after the death of his wife. However, his attempts to live a quiet life are soon thwarted after he runs afoul of the local drug kingpin, Gator (James Franco), who wants nothing more than to get Broker out of his town ASAP, and is willing to go to any lengths (including kidnapping) to make that happen. Winona Ryder, Kate Bosworth and Clancy Brown co-star.

From what I’ve read, this screenplay was originally penned by Sylvester Stallone some time ago, and while Sly is also involved as a co-producer, it’s left to Statham to carry this film on his own. Now, despite the presence of Franco, it seems unlikely that Homefront will break out any more than any recent Statham vehicle; his solo films usually are good for something between $20M and $35M, and I have little doubt that Homefront will settle into that bracket as well.

To its credit, it’s been fairly well-advertised, far more than Black Nativity (more on that in a moment), and I think an eight-figure debut is definitely possible. Scheduled to open in 2,500 theaters on Wednesday, I will predict a $12M 5-day weekend for Homefront, on its way to four Top 5, no PTA, a middling Rating and about $25M. It’s an inexpensive property ($7 in both leagues), but with such unremarkable results, I would stay away from this title.




From director Kasi Lemmons (Eve’s Bayou, Talk to Me) comes Black Nativity (Fox Searchlight), a musical drama that is based on noted playwright Langston Hughes’ play of the same name. In fact, the main character of the film is actually named Langston (Jacob Latimore), a street-wise teen from Baltimore who is sent by his single mom (Oscar winner Jennifer Hudson) to stay with their estranged relatives (Forest Whitaker, Angela Bassett) in New York City. Though he struggles to fit in to his new household, Langston embarks on a journey where he “discovers the true meaning of faith, healing and family”. And with people like Hudson, Mary J. Blige and Nas in the cast, you just know that there is going to be a lot of singing.

This is the first film of the Winter Season that actually has a holiday theme, but I’ve already seen far, far more commercials for A Madea Christmas than I have for Black Nativity. I can see why Fox Searchlight didn’t want to shove this into the already-overcrowded Christmas week, but I can’t seen Black Nativity making any kind of splash at all. For $8 in Ultimate ($7 in Box Office), I can’t see any more than one Top 5 point, no PTA, and $6M/$16M for it. It’s a great Bankrupts pick, but that’s about it.




It was ten years ago that Chan-wook Park helmed Oldboy, a mystery thriller that was loosely based on the manga of the same name. That film won the coveted Grand Prix prize at Cannes in 2004 (earning high praise from Jury President Quentin Tarantino), and has since achieved cult status. If there is one Asian film since the turn of the millennium that most staunch moviegoers have seen, this was it. And now, a decade later – half of which time plans for a remake were tossed about like a hot potato – an American version is finally hitting theaters. The 2013 remake of Oldboy (FilmDistrict) is set to hit theaters this Wednesday.

There was a time when directors as diverse as Justin Lin and Steven Spielberg were set to direct. In late 2009, it was announced that Spielberg, Will Smith (who was set to star) and DreamWorks had pulled out of the project. It wasn’t until a couple of years ago that the project became reinvigorated, albeit on a much smaller scale. Director Spike Lee was signed on to direct and, ironically, Smith’s Men in Black 3 co-star Josh Brolin was tabbed to play the main character.

Brolin plays Joe Doucett, an ad exec who, without apparent cause or reason, is kidnapped and confined to a single room. Though he contemplates suicide many times over the course of his imprisonment, he somehow is able to tough it out for twenty long years. When he is released (again with no explanation), he must find a way to determine not only who held him prisoner for two decades but why. Elizabeth Olsen, Sharlto Copley, Michael Imperioli and Samuel L. Jackson co-star.

Though the plot does indeed look similar to Park’s film, I believe that the script was changed in a few key places, most notably avoiding the incestuous elements of the original. On the one hand, I’m sure moviegoers, particularly those who enjoyed the twisty version helmed by Park, would be curious to check out Lee’s remake. On the other, it’s been seven years since Lee has directed anything good (Inside Man), and judging from the film’s current Rating, this version of Oldboy will not break that streak.

Add to that the fact that Oldboy is set to debut in about 500 theaters, which means that it will be out of reach for any Top 5, and may pick up one PTA point at the most. It was priced at $10 (in both leagues) before its wide-release run was cancelled, which is far too much to spend on it, except in Bankrupts. That’s about all there is to say.




Thankfully, there is one film this week that may be worth its price tag (but only just) in the non-Bankrupts leagues. That film is Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (Weinstein Co.), a biographical drama from director Justin Chadwick (The Other Boleyn Girl). It is based on the autobiography of the same name by former South African President Nelson Mandela, and it chronicles his early life, education, and the twenty-seven years he spent in prison at the hands of the pro-Apartheid government.

Veteran British actor Idris Elba (who we all know as Heimdall from the Thor films) plays Mandela, and has garnered much critical praise for his portrayal, even by critics who panned the film thus far. Elba’s performance has been described as “strong” and “towering”, which is what you’d want when chronicling the life of one of most important people of the last century. Naomie Harris (Skyfall) has also been praised for her portrayal of Nelson’s wife, Winnie.

The biggest criticism of Long Walk to Freedom, apart from its two-and-a-half hour length is the fact that it doesn’t give much in the way of insight into the man himself (which was my main criticism of 42 earlier this year). Still, the fact that it’s debuting on Friday in only four theaters makes it a definite candidate for PTA points. But to beat Catching Fire and Frozen in that category will take some doing, and for $5, I probably wouldn’t take the chance.




My predictions for the weekend of November 22-24, 2013:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $75 million ($91 million 5-day)
2. Frozen - $48 million ($65 million 5-day)
3. Homefront - $8 million ($13 million 5-day)
4. Thor: The Dark World - $7 million ($11 million 5-day)
5. Black Nativity - $6 million (8 million 5-day)

PTA: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Frozen, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Nebraska, Oldboy

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Homefront – 25% (1/4 positive), N/A
Black Nativity – N/A, N/A
Oldboy – N/A, 4.5 (512 votes)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – 63% (5/8 positive), 5.9 (509 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we enter the final month of 2013, as well as the home stretch for the Super Leagues. We do so with only three films on the docket. The only wide-release film scheduled is Out of the Furnace, a dramatic thriller starring Christian Bale, Casey Affleck and Woody Harrelson. In limited release, we also have the Coen Brothers latest drama, a musical drama entitled Inside Llewyn Davis, starring Oscar Isaac, and The Last Days on Mars, a sci-fi thriller starring Liev Schreiber.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Peter Facinelli (the Twilight films) turns 40 on 11/26
Curtis Armstrong (Revenge of the Nerds, Ray) turns 60 on 11/27
Fisher Stevens (Short Circuit, Hackers) turns 50 on 11/27
Sharlto Copley (District 9, Elysium) turns 40 on 11/27
Randy Newman (Oscar-winning composer) turns 70 on 11/28
Terrence Malick (director, The Tree of Life) turns 70 on 11/30

Later!

[BrocksterDuex]

Thor sure is hammering out those top 5 points.

[numbersix]

With Cloudy 2 underperforming a tad surely Frozen is destined to be huge, with only Walking With Dinosaurs being its only kiddie competition for the holidays. Enchanted is indeed a good comparison, and Tangled probably better.

Elsewhere, there's not much of real value. I think Homefront might fare a little better than you think, Shryke. If the bland Red Dawn can make decent numbers, this should do well for the action junkie audience. And Black Nativity is opening in too few theatres to make a huge dent. Will be interesting to see whether Best Man Holiday will steal its audience or create more demand. Oldboy is DOA.

As for PTA, I don't have much faith in Mandela. The reviews and festival response has been far too muted. Maybe the expansion of other PTA gems might open a place for this, but I don't think it's worth it. Such a shame that Philomena is expanding to 500+ theatres.

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $70 million ($100 million 5-day)
2. Frozen - $50 million ($70 million 5-day)
3. Homefront - $12 million ($17 million 5-day)
4. Thor: The Dark World - $10 million ($14 million 5-day)
5. The Best Man Holiday - $7 million (9 million 5-day)

Black Nativity - $6m (8m 5-day)
Oldboy - $1m ($1.5m 5-day)

[Geezer]

Philoma not a shame as a $2 Box Office filler, though. Which I definitely needed on my mini super.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I wish I would've taken Frozen on some slates. It'll almost have more Top 5 and PTA points than The Hobbit 2.

I didn't believe it in earlier, but it seems destined to play well into December. Tangled managed $200M, even with Yogi Bear squeezing out $100M from parents and Harry Potter still in the marketplace, and it's foolish to expect less from Frozen. Even it does look like a shitty combination of Brave and Ice Age.

I can't understand why FilmDistrict pussed out at the last second and decided to dump Oldboy, but they guaranteed it'll bomb. $30M + whatever little they spent on P&A down the drain.

Black Nativity has gotten some advertising but they seem to specially targeting Black audiences (keep seeing commercials during Real Husbands of Hollywood, which is on BET), which isn't a bad idea. It's audience is even more niche than Best Man Holiday and it'll be reflected in the predictably lower gross. Sad, since out of the three Black movies this season, Black Nativity probably had the most substance to it, being based off a Langston Hughes play and being written & directed by the director of Talk To Me (a pretty fantastic starring role of Don Cheadle's).

1. Catching Fire - $65M ($90M)
2. Frozen - $25M ($45M)
3. Homefront - $15M ($22M)
4. Black Nativity - $11M ($14M)
5. Best Man Holiday - $7M ($9M)

[transformers2]

1.Catching Fire $66 mil ($90 mil 5-day)
2.Frozen $43 mil ($72 mil 5-day)
3.Homefront $13 mil ($22 mil 5-day)
4.Black Nativity $12 mil ($19 mil 5-day)
5.Thor: The Dark World $8 mil ($11 mil 5-day)

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts (includes major expansions):

Frozen - 3,742
Homefront - 2,572
Black Nativity - 1,516
The Book Thief - 1,234
Philomena - 753
Oldboy - 583
Nebraska - 102
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom - 4


Estimate for next week:

Out of the Furnace - limited opening in NY and LA on Wednesday, 2,000 on Friday

[Walleye413]

For those on this side of the pond: Happy Thanksgiving to all! For the rest of the gang, join in the fun and have some mashed potatoes!

[Wrestler]

Early estimates from Deadline/boxoffice: WED/3day/5day

1. Catching Fire 20.7/68/103 should pass 300m by Sunday putting it at #3 fastest to 300/10day total
2. Frozen 15.3/60.5/86 Tangled did 11.8/68 finished with 200
3. Thor 2 2.4/11.5/16 should reach 187 by the end of the weekend 6m more than the final total of Thor. Still on pace for 200m
4. Homefront 1.4/6.1/9
5. Delivery 1.3/ ?/11
6. Best Man 1.2/?/12
Book Thief 700k/4.2/5.8 1234 screens
Black Nativity 435k/2.6/3.5 1516 screens
Philomena 377k/2.5/3.3 753 screens
Oldboy Wed 212k 583 screens

Side note: previous 5day thanksgiving record was held by Harry Potter 1 with 82m way back in 2001. We should have 2 movies best that this weekend but overall business should be down slightly from last year as only 2 movies are doing anything.

[Shrykespeare]

Wednesday Estimates (BOM):

Hunger Games: CF, $20.7M
Frozen, $15.4M
Thor: TDW, $2.3M
Homefront, $1.4M
Delivery Man, $1.3M

Black Nativity, $440K
Philomena, $377K

[JohnErle]

Yikes. That's a brutal number for Black Nativity. A few months ago when I saw the trailer I thought it had breakout potential and I considered saving a spot for it in BO leagues. I have a hard enough time knowing what black audiences want to see, but religious audiences are even harder for me to gauge. Glad I stayed away from it.

Awesome start for Frozen, respectable for The Book Thief, and decent for Philomena, but I was hoping for more. It should hold well, though. I'm glad I avoided Thor in the final round of the Super Leagues because it's not going to deliver on the $39 price tag.

[Shrykespeare]

Thursday Estimates

The Hunger Games: CF, $14.9M
Frozen, $11.1M
Thor: TDW, $2.0M
Delivery Man, $1.4M
Homefront, $1.4M
The Best Man Holiday, $1.4M
The Book Thief, $825K
Black Nativity, $680K
Philomena, $434K

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Hunger Games: Catching Fire, $31.2M
Frozen, $26.8M
Thor: The Dark World, $4.5M
The Best Man Holiday, $3.4M
Delivery Man, $2.7M
Homefront, $2.6M
The Book Thief, $1.9M
Black Nativity, $1.6M
Philomena, $1.3M
Last Vegas, $1.1M
Gravity, $1.1M



Weekend Projections

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, $74M ($296M overall)
Frozen, $67M ($93M overall)
Thor: The Dark World, $11.2M
The Best Man Holiday, $8.4M
Delivery Man, $6.8M
Homefront, $6.6M
The Book Thief, $4.8M
Black Nativity, $3.9M
Philomena, $3.5M
Last Vegas, $2.9M
Gravity, $2.8M

So no Top 5 for either of the new films.

And even more interestingly, it puts both Hunger Games and Frozen in a near dead-heat for PTA, at just under $18K. I don't see any of the other wide or semi-wide films even passing $5K. That leaves the door open for possibly Mandela, Oldboy, and Nebraska.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, $74.5M
4 points - Frozen, $66.7M
3 points - Thor: The Dark World, $11.1M
2 points - The Best Man Holiday, $8.5M
1 point - Homefront, $7.0M
Delivery Man, $6.9M
The Book Thief, $4.8M
Black Nativity, $3.9M
Philomena, $3.8M
Last Vegas, $2.8M

PTA:
5 points - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (how about that??)
4 points - The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
3 points - Frozen
2 points - Nebraska
1 point - The Best Man Holiday

Oldboy only made $1.2M ($1,458 PTA).

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Catching Fire's 2nd weekend!

Frozen's opening!

Everyone else.