SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/8

[Shrykespeare]

Ender’s Game led off the Winter Season with a respectable $28M OW, taking first place in the process. Bad Grandpa suffered only a minute drop in its second week, earning another $20M, which was good enough to outearn newcomers Last Vegas ($16.5M) and Free Birds ($16.2M). Gravity rounded out the Top 5, earning another $13M in its fifth weekend. On the PTA front, Dallas Buyers Club took top honors, amassing nearly $30,000 per theater.

Two movies currently in limited release will go wide this coming Friday. About Time will expand to roughly 1,200 theaters, and 12 Years a Slave will also go wide, though I do not have an expected theater count as of yet. I am going to assume, based on WOM and its current state of critical acclaim, that it will be able to crack the Top 5, although a take of much more than $10M would be optimistic without more data.

In May of 2011, the third segment in the Avengers introductory films, Thor, hit theaters, to less-than-stellar results. It managed an OW of only $65M, which is pretty low for a summer leadoff hitter. The film then took pretty big hits in its ensuing weekends, losing out to films like Bridesmaids, the fourth Pirates of the Caribbean film, and The Hangover Part II. When all was said and done, it managed only $181M in total take, to go along with fourteen Top 5 and eleven PTA.

Why did Thor disappoint? My theory is that the character of Thor, a demigod from the mythological land of Asgard possessing not a small amount of arrogance and haughtiness, failed to connect with moviegoers. However, that was before The Avengers came out, a film that elevated all of its individual characters to near-legendary status. It’s the reason why an inferior product such as Iron Man 3 was able to crack $400M earlier this summer, and it can only bode well not only for Thor: The Dark World (Buena Vista), but for next April’s Captain America: Winter Soldier.

Before we talk about the plot, a little back-story is required: eons ago, a race of beings called the Dark Elves, led by Malekith (Christopher Eccleston), sought to return the universe to its pre-Big Bang state by using a force known as the Aether. They were defeated by Bor, father of Odin (Anthony Hopkins), but Malekith and a few of his fellow elves escaped into a state of suspended animation.

In the present, a rare alignment of the Nine Realms of Asgard is imminent, causing portals to open on Earth. Jane Foster (Natalie Portman), the human love interest of Thor, is sucked into a vortex, where the Aether enters her body. Thor (Chris Hemsworth) is forced to bring Jane to Asgard, just as Malekith and his cohorts wake up and attack Asgard. Thor, his cohorts and all of Asgard, including his villainous brother Loki (Tom Hiddleston), must band together to save the Nine Realms from oblivion. Stellan Skarsgard, Idris Elba, Kat Dennings, Ray Stevenson, Zachary Levi, Jaimie Alexander and Rene Russo co-star.

It’s worth mentioning that The Dark World opened overseas this past weekend, bringing in an estimated $109M, a setting the table admirably for its opening on American soil. I would expect an OW of around $100M, given the buildup and the prodigious advertising campaign. With only The Best Man Holiday opening next week, expect The Dark World to win back-to-back weeks, pulling in no fewer than thirteen Top 5 points, along with seven PTA, a Rating around 7.7 and $260M overall. It will likely get smothered two weeks down the line when The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens, but for its price tag ($37 Ultimate, $39 Box Office), this is a very good pick.




The #1 PTA prospect this week among the limited releases is The Book Thief (Fox), which will be opening in four theaters this Friday, before (I presume) expanding nationwide sometime in the next month. Based on the 2006 novel of the same name by Australian author Markus Zusak, the main character is a young girl named Liesel Meminger (Monsieur Lazhar’s Sophie Nelisse), who is sent to live with a foster family in Nazi Germany during WWII.

Her prized possession is a book that she finds on her brother’s graveside, and it so enthralls her that she begins collecting every book she can find. And with the help of her new parents (Geoffrey Rush and Emily Watson) and a Jewish refugee named Max (Ben Schnetzer) that they pledge to keep safe, Liesel learns to read and proceeds to create a magical world that will inspire them all.

I have little doubt that The Book Thief will earn at least a few PTA points, though whether it manages to beat either Thor or Dallas Buyers Club is less certain. With only a few films on the roster for next week, an $8 investment might be a worthy one, but without knowing when and if a nationwide expansion may take place, I would advise against it. I wouldn’t spend $8 in Box Office it regardless.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three other limited-release films:

The Armstrong Lie (Sony Classics) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This documentary is the latest from Academy Award-winning director Alex Gibney (Taxi to the Dark Side), but, more than most, the finished product that this film became is far, far different than what it started out as. As most people know, Lance Armstrong is a former professional cyclist whose life and career both seemed doomed when, in 1996, he was diagnosed with testicular cancer that had spread to his lungs, abdomen and brain. Despite having the testicle removed, he was given only a 40% chance to live.

However, after several rounds of chemotherapy, he not only made a full recovery but won the most coveted crown in all of cycling, the Tour De France championship, a record seven consecutive times from 1999-2005. This was the comeback story that Gibney envisioned when he started filming, but things took a dramatic turn in 2012 when Armstrong was charged with having used illegal performance-enhancing drugs. For whatever reason, Armstrong didn’t even fight these charges, and he was eventually stripped of all seven titles and banned from the sport for life.

Though a case could be made that doping was so prevalent at the time, singling out Armstrong for such a huge punishment is unjust, The Armstrong Lie would seem to focus on the man himself, and how his enormous ego ultimately led to his downfall. But is this a story that moviegoers want to hear? Gibney’s reputation speaks for itself, and critics have really liked this film thus far. That may translate to a couple or three PTA points, but that’s not enough for me to recommend it.




Best Man Down (Magnolia) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This comedy-drama is the directorial debut of Ted Koland. It tells the story of a young couple named Scott (Justin Long) and Kristin (Jess Weixler), whose post-nuptials plans change dramatically when their best man Lumpy (Tyler Labine) unexpectedly dies after partying a little too hardily. Putting their honeymoon on hold, the couple must instead return home to plan Lumpy’s funeral, and along the way they learn that the man they knew was far different from the man he truly was. Shelley Long and Addison Timlin co-star.

Not sure what to make of this one. Some films really jump at you as obvious great picks, and others stand out as obvious turkeys. This one lands solidly in the middle: an average-looking film with average acclaim. But against better films, its final stats will likely be less than average, and that’s something you don’t want this late in the year.




People of a Feather (First Run) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This 2011 documentary, directed by Joel Heath, takes you into the world of the Inuit people, who reside on the Belcher Islands within Canada’s Hudson Bay, well within the Arctic Circle. Shot over seven years, the film outlines how the local waterfowl is instrumental to the survival of this tribe, from the warmth of their feathers to their usefulness as a food source. Of course, like most indigenous tribes, they are affected just as much by outside technologies, such as hydroelectric dams that drastically affect sea ice and oceanic currents.

People of a Feather won the Audience Choice for Best Documentary at the 2011 Vancouver Film Festival. The visual imagery of the harsh landscape is certainly breathtaking, but as noble a story as it might be, I can’t see this one packing in theaters. I’d pass on this one.




My predictions for the weekend of November 1-3, 2013:

1. Thor: The Dark World - $100 million
2. Ender’s Game - $14 million
3. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa - $13 million
4. Free Birds - $10 million
5. 12 Years a Slave - $10 million

PTA (Sep/Oct): Thor: The Dark World, Dallas Buyers Club, The Book Thief, The Armstrong Lie, Blue is the Warmest Color

PTA (Nov): Thor: The Dark World, Dallas Buyers Club, The Book Thief, The Armstrong Lie, People of a Feather

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Thor: The Dark World – 84% (42/50 positive), 7.8 (16,510 votes)
The Book Thief – N/A, 6.2 (441 votes)
The Armstrong Lie – 92% (12/13 positive), 7.2 (73 votes)
Best Man Down – 60% (3/5 positive), 6.4 (997 votes)
People of a Feather – N/A, 8.1 (43 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, there’s not much going on: the only wide release on the roster is African-American comedy The Best Man Holiday, which is actually a sequel to the 1999 film The Best Man. Also on tap is Nebraska, a potential award winner and the latest film from Sideways director Alexander Payne, and Faust, a Russian adaptation of the classic German drama.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Sam Shepard (Black Hawk Down, The Right Stuff) turns 70 on 11/5
Tatum O’Neal (Paper Moon, The Bad News Bears) turns 50 on 11/5
Joni Mitchell (singer) turns 60 on 11/7
Yunjin Kim (Lost, Mistresses) turns 40 on 11/7
Nick Lachey (singer, host of The Sing-Off) turns 40 on 11/9
Miranda Lambert (country singer) turns 30 on 11/10

Later!

[JohnErle]

Indiewire is saying approximately 1000 screens for 12 Years A Slave this week, and I wouldn't be surprised if the wide release plans for About Time were cancelled, or scaled back considerably. It had half the PTA of 12 Years A Slave in half as many theatres, so there's not much demand for the movie to go any wider. A nationwide expansion would probably be throwing more money at a losing proposition.

And yeah, I'm pretty surprised by that hold for Bad Grandpa. That's the best hold ever for a Jackass movie.

[numbersix]

Thor 2 should certainly benefit from the Avengers effect, and 250m seems likely. About Time will probably fail to make it into the Top 5. Guess it was seen as too British to succeed.

In terms of PTA, I still have hopes for The Book Thief. It was in the NY Times Bestseller list for 230 weeks - over 4 years! I saw the trailer in a cinema and it does look a bit like a TV movie, but I could see it getting The Reader numbers. Armstrong Lie should be good for a few points as well.

1. Thor: The Dark World - $100 million
2. Ender’s Game - $12 million
3. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa - $11 million
4. Free Birds - $10 million
5. Last Vegas - $9 million

12 Years A Slave - $7m
About Time - $5m

[transformers2]

1.Thor: The Dark World $105 mil
2.Ender's Game $13 mil
3.Bad Grandpa $12 mil
4.Free Birds $11 mil
5.Last Vegas $9 mil

[numbersix]

Tracking

Thor 2: RS high 80s, MTC 91m (incl Thurs evening)
About Time: RS low teens, MTC 4m

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Thor should completely devastate Ender's Game. And the wide expansion of 12 Years is a great counter program.

1. Thor - $94M
2. 12 Years A Slave - $12M
3. Ender's Game - $10M
4. Jackass: Bad Grandpa - $9.5M
5. FreeBirds - $9M
6. Last Vegas - $8M
7. Gravity - $7M
8. About Time - $6.5M

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Thor: The Dark World - 3,841
The Armstrong Lie - 5
The Book Thief - 4

About Time - 1,200
12 Years a Slave - 1,144


Estimates for next week:

The Best Man Holiday - 2,000
Nebraska - 4

[Wrestler]

Thor2 is off to a solid start with 7.1m from thursday previews. Compares favorably to thor 3.2m and caps 4m

[JohnErle]

Is anyone else surprised that there's only 32 reviews posted on Rotten Tomatoes for The Book Thief? Was this movie not screened for critics? And the few reviews that are up are pretty lacklustre, which is not a good sign.

On the other hand, the reviews seem to imply that the movie is safe, schmaltzy, and completely glosses over the horrors of the holocaust, which makes it sound like the next Life Is Beautiful, so it could manage to be a big hit yet.

[numbersix]

Still clinging to the idea that it was a NY Times bestseller for 4 years straight.

[JohnErle]

I don't blame you, but I always thought it seemed like the next Kite Runner, a huge bestseller with dark subject matter and a child protagonist that went nowhere at the BO.

And the other thing that always gave me pause about The Book Thief is that it seems to be about the power of reading, which means it appealed greatly to book snobs who probably look down on movies and always claim the book is better than the movie.

I stubbornly clung to The Fifth Estate as well, but take solace in the fact that no matter how badly The Book Thief does, it should outgross my biggest mistake of the draft.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Thor: The Dark World, $31.6M
Bad Grandpa, $3.4M
Last Vegas, $3.2M
Ender's Game, $2.9M
Free Birds, $2.6M
Gravity, $2.3M
12 Years a Slave, $1.8M
Captain Phillips, $1.6M
About Time, $1.5M



Weekend Projections

Thor: The Dark World, $81M
Bad Grandpa, $11.4M
Last Vegas, $11.3M
Free Birds, $11.2M
Ender's Game, $10.0M
Gravity, $8.3M
12 Years a Slave, $7.0M
Captain Phillips, $5.7M
About Time, $5.0M
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, $2.7M


So, nowhere near $100M, but still decent.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Thor: The Dark World, $86.1M
4 points - Bad Grandpa, $11.3M
3 points - Free Birds, $11.2M
2 points - Last Vegas, $11.1M
1 point - Ender's Game, $10.2M
Gravity, $8.4M
12 Years a Slave, $6.6M
Captain Phillips, $5.8M
About Time, $5.1M
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, $2.8M


PTA:
5 points - The Book Thief
4 points - Thor: The Dark World
3 points - Dallas Buyers Club
2 points - The Armstrong Lie
1 point (Sep/Oct) - 12 Years a Slave
1 point (Nov) - About Time

No word yet on People of a Feather or Best Man Down yet.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Hmm, I certainly wasn't expecting The Book Thief to grab 5 PTA points this weekend. May not be a total lost cause after all.

[Shrykespeare]

Bumped to next page.