SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/4

[Shrykespeare]

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 reigned supreme this past weekend, taking in $35M, which was nearly triple the film in second place, the drama Prisoners, which dropped 46% from its debut weekend. The weekend’s other new features, Baggage Claim and Don Jon, came in fourth and fifth with $9.3M and $9.0M, respectively. On the PTA front, Cloudy’s parade was rained on by Enough Said, which took the PTA crown for the second straight week.

A note to all Super League players: we are about to start the October-December leagues. For those of you who survive the last two cuts, it is important to remember that this league is the one that you have to win in order to claim victory in the league. So plan your slates very carefully, and good luck!

This week we open the month of October, the month where we will begin to see more and more film that will be competing for little golden statuettes next spring, but like September, a month that is pretty sparse as far as wide-release films is concerned. Things will really get going in November, which will see thirteen new wide-release films, four more than are set to be released in October. A heavy candidate for the month’s best film is our leadoff hitter, Gravity (Warner Bros.).

Mexican director Alfonso Cuaron has been at the helm of a lot of critically-acclaimed films in his career, including Y Tu Mama Tambien, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, and the triple-Oscar-nominated drama Children of Men. His expertise seems to be in stories where hope is found in the bleakest and darkest of situations and landscapes, and Gravity takes place in the starkest landscape of all: outer space.

The story centers on the Space Shuttle Explorer, crewed by Dr. Ryan Stone (Sandra Bullock) and Matt Kowalski (George Clooney). Disaster strikes when the shuttle collides with debris from a destroyed satellite, which leaves Ryan floating in space without a tether and both of them unable to contact Mission Control. The pair must use all of their resources to use their limited resources to find a way to survive before their oxygen runs out. Ed Harris co-stars as the voice of Mission Control.

With the exception of Harry Potter, none of Cuaron’s previous outings have really been box office hits, but Gravity might break that streak. From what I’ve read, Gravity’s visuals are absolutely stunning, but beyond that, the performances by Clooney and Bullock are also outstanding. Many reviews have already been handed down, and they are almost universally positive. But will moviegoers flock to a film like this?

In lieu of any major competition, I think they will. I predict an OW of $36M, along with ten Top 5 points, five PTA, an outstanding Rating around 7.7 and about $116M in total take. For a price tag of $18 in both leagues, I think you have a winner on your hands. So unless you’re determined to back-load your slates with winter fare, this is a title that you should grab.




The other major studio release this week is Runner Runner (Fox), which was directed by Brad Furman, whose last outing, 2011’s The Lincoln Lawyer, was terrific. However, while that film was lauded by critics, Runner Runner seems to have had the opposite impact. And for whatever reason, I have seen next to zero advertising for this film… I can count the number of commercials I’ve seen for it in the last month on one hand, which is never a good sign. What’s even stranger is that the film co-stars Ben Affleck, who is coming off his best film ever, last year’s Best Picture winner Argo.

The main character of the film is Richie Furst (Justin Timberlake), a Princeton student who was able to afford his enormous tuition by winning it playing online poker. However, when his luck turns sour, he becomes convinced that he was swindled out of his winnings, and so he travels to the remote-island location that is home to the site, intent on confronting the site’s corrupt owner, Ivan Block (Affleck). Block is impressed with Richie, and even ends up offering him a place in his organization. Things soon take a nasty turn when Richie finds out that Ivan is a target of an FBI investigation led by Agent Shavers (Anthony Mackie), and that Ivan’s friendly façade masks a very sinister nature. Gemma Arterton also co-stars.

Set to bow in about 3,000 theaters, I look for Runner Runner to have a very soft opening, just north of eight figures. I predict at most four Top 5 points, one or two PTA (benefited by being in the first week of the month), and an OW of $11M on its way to $30M. For a price tag of $15 in Ultimate ($16 in Box Office), this would make a good pick only in Bankrupts.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited-release films:

Grace Unplugged (Roadside Attractions) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This musical drama stars Amanda Michalka (Super 8) as Grace Trey, a singing phenom who has grown up singing only Christian music. Her father, Johnny (James Denton), was once a successful pop singer who gave it all up when he converted to Christianity. Grace, however, sees her life’s path going in exactly the reverse direction, and having just turned eighteen, she must decide whether to heed her father’s warnings about the deceptive nature of stardom or strike out on her own. Kevin Pollak and Shawnee Smith co-star.

Like all of this week’s films, Grace Unplugged is guaranteed at least one PTA point in the October leagues. Set to bow in seven theaters starting Friday, I can see Christian audiences showing up for this, but probably not much outside of that.




The Summit (IFC) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – The documentary chronicles the perils of the Himalayan mountain known as K2, which is located in the remote region between Pakistan and China. Known as the Savage Mountain, it has claimed the lives nearly one-fourth of the climbers who have dared to try to climb it. One particularly disastrous expedition occurred in August 2008, when several groups converged from around the world to try to scale the peak. Two days later, nearly half of the twenty-four experienced climbers had either been killed or vanished into thin air. The film, directed by Nick Ryan, is a pastiche of both first-hand footage of the climb as well as after-the-fact interviews and reenactments. One mountaineer, Ger McDonnell, is featured, as he was one of the few who was rescued after having been left for dead.

The Summit is set for a six-theater release this Friday. Its User Rating is decent, and will probably end up in the mid-6’s. It doesn’t seem like it has multi-week potential, though, so I would probably avoid it.




Concussion (Radius-TWC) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – Robin Weiget stars as Abby, a bored forty-something lesbian housewife whose life changes after being struck in the head by her son’s baseball. After suffering a mild concussion, she invents a new persona in Eleanor, a prostitute for other women, in the hopes of recapturing her youthful vigor and self-esteem, while keeping this double life a secret from her life partner Sam (Maggie Siff).

Concussion was screened earlier this year at both Sundance and Berlin, copping a Jury Prize at the latter. I’m not sure how many theaters will be showing it, and that’s a key component to recommending it.




Honestly, PTA this week is a crap-shoot. I can’t see any of the limited-release films topping Gravity, which means the four other films this week (Runner Runner included) could end up anywhere between those one and four points. Your guess is as good as mine as to which order they will finish in. And with so much uncertainty, I wouldn’t take any of them.


My predictions for the weekend of October 4-6, 2013:

1. Gravity - $36 million
2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 - $20 million
3. Runner, Runner - $11 million
4. Rush - $8 million
5. Prisoners - $7 million

PTA (Jul/Aug leagues): Gravity, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Enough Said, The Summit, Concussion

PTA (Sep leagues): Gravity, The Summit, Concussion, Runner Runner, Grace Unplugged

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Gravity – 95% (41/43 positive), 7.9 (2,515 votes)
Runner Runner – 23% (6/26 positive), 5.4 (1,012 votes)
Grace Unplugged – N/A, N/A
The Summit – N/A, 6.7 (64 votes)
Concussion – 86% (6/7 positive), 5.7 (120 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, October continues with five new titles, led by Tom Hanks’ new drama Captain Phillips. Also on tap is the Robert Rodriguez gory actioner Machete Kills and drama The Fifth Estate. In limited release, we have the latest adaptation of Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet, starring Hailee Steinfeld, and horror-thriller All the Boys Love Mandy Lane.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Lena Headey (300, Dredd) turns 40 on 10/3
Neve Campbell (Scream, Party of Five) turns 40 on 10/3
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network, Now You See Me, up next in Rio 2) turns 30 on 10/5
Elisabeth Shue (Leaving Las Vegas, CSI) turns 50 on 10/6
Ioan Gruffudd (Fantastic Four, King Arthur) turns 40 on 10/6

Later!

[Wrestler]

Grace unplugged will be debuting in significantly more theaters than 7. I think you were looking at The Summit when you wrote that down. The theater in my town will be showing GU and that doesn't happen unless the movies is given at least a few hundred screens. It still won't be anything that would make it crack the top 5 but a million or so might certainly be do able.

[numbersix]

Hm.. the Gravity debate continues. I have a feeling certain fanboy excitement is driving expectations too high. Having said that, it does like a film that could appeal to the mainstream, but I still have reservations.

And yeah, Runner Runner looks more and more like a flick that'll just fall under the radar.

As for PTA, that Christian movie could do well if it reaches its audience - just look how well some similar films like Fireproof fared. The Summit has potential to do well too. Hard to tell if Concussion will perform - Radius's strategy of simultaneous VOD doesn't bode well for this game.

1. Gravity - $30 million
2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 - $20 million
3. Runner, Runner - $12 million
4. Prisoners - $7 million
5. Rush - $6 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

So glad I opted for the combo of Insidious & Gravity instead of Cloudy With A Chance 2 in some of my BO leagues...

1. Gravity - $32M
2. Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 2 - $23M
3. Runner Runner - $14M
4. Prisoners - $7M
5. Rush - $7M

[numbersix]

MTC Tracking: Gravity 39.4m, Runner runner 12.4m, Grace Unplugged under 1.5m (does that mean it'll be in a lot more theatres?)

[Chienfantome]

Apparently Grace unplugged got a bit more than 500 theaters.

[JohnErle]

And Gravity has the best reviews of any wide release film this year.

I'll probably see it today, but I'm trying to keep my expectations reasonable.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Gravity - 3,575
Runner Runner - 3,024
Grace Unplugged - 511
The Summit - 8
Concussion - N/A

Metallica Through the Never - expands to 650
Parkland - 217


Estimates for next week:

Captain Phillips - 3,000
Machete Kills - 2,300
Romeo and Juliet - 450

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report


Ultimate FY (R8, R9, R10 - 17 players)

Gravity - 10, 11, 13
Runner Runner - 1, 1, 0
Grace Unplugged - 1, 0, 0
The Summit - 1, 0, 1
Concussion - 1, 0, 0


Ultimate HY (R3, R4, R5 - 26 players)

Gravity - 15, 15, 20
Runner Runner - 0, 0, 0
Grace Unplugged - 2, 1, 1
The Summit - 2, 1, 3
Concussion - 2, 0, 0


Box Office FY (R8, R9, R10 - 20 players)

Gravity - 11, 8, 5
Runner Runner - 0, 0, 0
Grace Unplugged - 1, 6, 0
The Summit - 1, 0, 0
Concussion - 0, 0, 0


Box Office HY (R3, R4, R5 - 26 players)

Gravity - 12, 13, 12
Runner Runner - 0, 0, 0
Grace Unplugged - 3, 4, 0
The Summit - 3, 0, 0
Concussion - 1, 1, 0


Bankrupts, 4th Quarter (Ult, BO - 15 players)

Runner Runner - 7, 12

[transformers2]

Well i fucked up on Gravity... $17.5 Mil yesterday estimated $47 mil for the weekend.

[silversurfer19]

Wow, very impressive. I took it in all the new leagues other than the Regulars, which I didn't join quick enough to add it in. Couldn't squeeze it in any of my old leagues unfortunately, either.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I took it in most of my Regulars but felt it was too risky for all my Super League slates. Stupid.

[W]

Deadline is reporting $7.9 m for Runner, Runner and $48 m for Gravity. I was right that no one cares about online poker anymore (and even less know what the title refers to). Runner Runner on both Bankrupts and Gravity on all my New ULTs. Pretty happy with the weekend.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Gravity, $17.5M
Cloudy 2, $4.7M
Runner Runner, $2.7M
Prisoners, $1.7M
Don Jon, $1.4M
Rush, $1.4M
Baggage Claim, $1.2M
Insidious 2, $1.2M


Weekend Projections:

Gravity, $52M
Cloudy 2, $20.5M
Runner Runner, $7.7M
Prisoners, $5.7M
Rush, $4.4M
Don Jon, $4.3M
Baggage Claim, $4.0M
Insidious 2, $3.8M
Enough Said, $2.5M

[Chienfantome]

I tyhink I've put Gravity in like 90% of my slates, old and new, so I'm pretty happy tonight.
I knew it