Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/27

silversurfer19 · Post by **silversurfer19** » September 28th, 2013, 2:32 am

Early numbers from deadline:

1. Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2 3D (Sony) NEW [Runs 4,001] PG
Friday $10.0M, Weekend $38.0M

2. Rush (Imagine/Universal) Week 2 [Runs 2,297] R
Friday $3.8M, Weekend $11.3M, Cume $11.6M

3. Prisoners (Alcon/Warner Bros) Week 2 [Runs 3,290] R
Friday $3.3M (-57%), Weekend $10.6M, Cume $38.4M

4. Baggage Claim (Fox Searchlight) NEW [Runs 2,027] PG13
Friday $3.2M, Weekend $9.1M

5. Don Jon (Relativity) NEW [Runs 2,422] R
Friday $3.1M, Weekend $8.5M

6. Insidious: Chapter 2 (FilmDistrict) Week 3 [Runs 3,120] PG13
Friday $1.9M, Weekend $5.8M, Cume $68.7M

7. The Family (Relativity) Week 3 [Runs 2,894] R
Friday $1.1M, Weekend $3.6M, Cume $31.6M

8. We’re The Millers (New Line/Warner Bros) Week 8 [Runs 2,405] R
Friday $895K, Weekend $2.9M, Cume $142.5M

9. Instructions Not Included (Lionsgate) Week 5 [Runs 948] PG13
Friday $749K, Weekend $2.8M, Cume $38.1M

10. Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Weinstein) Week 7 [Runs 2,062] PG13
Friday $697K, Weekend $2.4M, Cume $110.4M

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » September 28th, 2013, 3:25 am

Baggage Claim outearns Don Jon? Ouch.

JohnErle · Post by **JohnErle** » September 28th, 2013, 4:02 am

Can't say I'm surprised by that low number for Rush.

Now that it's out, I have to say that the marketing for this film took the wrong approach. Most people in North America don't know who either of these guys is, so the marketing make it look like Generic Arrogant Douche vs. Random European Guy In A Sport No One Cares About. But when I took the time to research Niki Lauda's true story, I learned that there was a potentially great movie to be told there, but there was no hint of it in any of the marketing I saw.

And there was a strange behind the scenes trailer I saw a couple of times with the real Niki Laudu that only left me wondering "what the hell is wrong with his face?" If the trailers had told us to expect the accident and the comeback story, I think the movie probably would have opened better in North America.

If the WOM is good it might hold well, though.

BanksIsDaFuture · September 28th, 2013, 4:23 am

Look at how close those Friday numbers are for 2-5. The final ordering is still way up in the air, I'm hoping Don Jon attracts some date nights tomorrow to take 2nd place. Can't see Rush having a huge Saturday jump, and looking What's Your Number's OW daily stats, Baggage Claim doesn't seem to stand a chance when the weekend numbers are tallied.

Surprised Prisoners dropped so hard though, only guess that a lot if it's audience was eaten up by Rush.

JohnErle · Post by **JohnErle** » September 28th, 2013, 5:02 am

The problem with Don Jon is that most men like porn and most women like romantic fantasies, such as Baggage Claim. Don Jon seems to be telling everyone that we're wrong for liking what we like, which makes it seem kinda pretentious and preachy. It's hard to break out of the arthouses with a message like that.

Chienfantome · Post by **Chienfantome** » September 28th, 2013, 5:03 am

Yeah I'm disappointed if those Prisoners numbers hold, I was expecting a better hold too. But it's still early as Banks point out, and come sunday, numbers and order could change.

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » September 28th, 2013, 7:05 pm

Friday Estimates

Cloudy 2, $9.3M
Rush, $3.7M
Prisoners, $3.4M
Don Jon, $3.3M
Baggage Claim, $3.3M
Insidious 2, $2.1M
The Family, $1.1M

Weekend Projections:

Cloudy 2, $35.5M
Prisoners, $11.2M
Rush, $11M
Don Jon, $9.5M
Baggage Claim, $9.4M
Insidious 2, $6.3M
The Family, $3.6M
Instructions Not Included, $3.1M
We're the Millers, $2.9M
The Butler, $2.5M
Metallica Through the Never, $2.4M
Enough Said, $2M

This would put Cloudy 2 and Enough Said in a dead heat for the PTA crown, with Metallica right behind.

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » September 28th, 2013, 7:08 pm

Stock Report

Ultimate FY (R7, R8, R9 - 19 players)

Cloudy 2 - 4, 17, 8
Don Jon - 2, 2, 1
Baggage Claim - 1, 0, 0
Metallica Through the Never - 0, 3, 4

Ultimate HY (R2, R3, R4 - 33 players)

Cloudy 2 - 8, 28, 11
Don Jon - 2, 4, 3
Baggage Claim - 0, 0, 0
Metallica Through the Never - 0, 4, 2

Box Office FY (R7, R8, R9 - 23 players)

Cloudy 2 - 6, 19, 11
Don Jon - 2, 0, 1
Baggage Claim - 2, 0, 0
Metallica Through the Never - 1, 7, 1

Box Office HY (R2, R3, R4 - 33 players)

Cloudy 2 - 6, 27, 18
Don Jon - 1, 1, 0
Baggage Claim - 1, 0, 0
Metallica Through the Never - 2, 5, 4

Not one of this weekend's films was taken in either Bankrupts leagues.

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » September 29th, 2013, 2:19 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, $35.0M
4 points - Prisoners, $11.3M
3 points - Rush, $10.3M
2 points - Baggage Claim, $9.3M
1 point - Don Jon, $9.0M
Insidious Chapter 2, $6.7M
Instructions Not Included, $3.4M
We're the Millers, $2.9M
Lee Daniels' The Butler, $2.4M
Enough Said, $2.1M

PTA:
5 points - Enough Said
4 points - Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
3 points - Metallica Through the Never
2 points - Baggage Claim
1 point - Rush

silversurfer19 · Post by **silversurfer19** » September 29th, 2013, 2:30 pm

Got to say, that's about $10m less than I anticipated for Cloudy. I thought with the good will towards the original, the lack of animations for almost two months and following Hotel Transylvania's performance last year that it would perform much better. Doesn't seem so 'must have' now, as although it will probably hold well, I don't really see it cracking $130m now. Decent hold for Prisoners and excellent for it's Top 5 points, while another PTA for Rush is very welcome.

BanksIsDaFuture · September 29th, 2013, 3:07 pm

Hmm, I was really hoping Don Jon would click. I'll be seeing it tomorrow, hopefully that C Cinemascore is because people didn't know what to expect. I read it's a lot more serious than the marketing would suggest.

Cloudy 2 was nowhere as good as the original, I don't think it'll appeal to adults like the original did. Would it be considered a failure if it fails to exceed the first one's total BO?

JohnErle · Post by **JohnErle** » September 29th, 2013, 3:28 pm

I'm one of the few people who didn't take Cloudy 2 on any of my slates, so I'm very happy with that OW. Just enough to make it a worthwhile pick in the top 20 game, but probably not essential in Super Leagues.

I thought it was slightly overpriced in BO leagues and that there were better options available, especially since there was no guarantee fans of the original would like what the new directors delivered.

There's obviously very little competition until November, so it all depends on the hold.

silversurfer19 · Post by **silversurfer19** » September 29th, 2013, 3:44 pm

I honestly thought it could make $180m come the end of it's run, it looked to still maintain a lot of the ideas from the first, while keeping it fresh too. If it made anything less than $110m though I think that would class it a failure.

Chienfantome · Post by **Chienfantome** » September 29th, 2013, 4:37 pm

I'm sure it'll have strong legs, but it's undeniable that we all expected a better opening weekend.

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » October 1st, 2013, 12:14 am

Sorry this is so late, but I'm having problems with my home phone and internet connection, so I'm having to do the updates from a nearby McDonald's.

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, $34.0M
4 points - Prisoners, $10.9M
3 points - Rush, $10.0M
2 points - Baggage Claim, $9.0M
1 point - Don Jon, $8.7M
Insidious Chapter 2, $6.6M
The Family, $3.7M
Instructions Not Included, $3.5M
We're the Millers, $2.8M
Lee Daniels' The Butler, $2.4M

PTA:
5 points - Enough Said, $13,901
4 points - Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, $9,246
3 points - Metallica Through the Never, $5,482
2 points - Baggage Claim, $4,455
1 point - Rush, $4,360