SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/18, 9/20

[Shrykespeare]

Insidious Chapter 2 scored huge this past weekend against very thin competition, racking up an impressive $41M in its first three days. Coming in second was The Family, which debuted with a so-so $14M of its own, while last week’s champ Riddick tumbled to third after taking a 63% hit in its second weekend. On the PTA front, psychological drama Blue Caprice took the crown, narrowly edging out Insidious Chapter 2.

Six new films take center stage for game purposes this week, all scheduled for release on September 20. Two are set for wide-release and four are being given a limited-release platform, though one of those four will be getting a nationwide expansion next week. And though it won’t count in the game, this weekend will also see the 3D/IMAX re-release of the classic 1939 film The Wizard of Oz.

The first film on tap this weekend is Prisoners (Warner Bros.), the first American film from Canadian director Denis Villeneuve, whose captivating 2010 war drama Incendies garnered both critical praise and scads of awards, as well as a Oscar nom for Best Foreign Film. The impressive ensemble cast that includes Viola Davis, Maria Bello, Terrence Howard, Melissa Leo and Paul Dano is anchored by Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhaal. Mark Wahlberg is listed as a co-producer.

Jackman plays Keller Dover, a small-town carpenter who suffers every parent’s worst nightmare – his six-year-old daughter is kidnapped, along with her best friend Joy, on Thanksgiving Day. The only lead is an old RV, driven by Alex Jones (Dano), that was suspiciously hanging around near where the girls disappeared. Though convinced of Alex’s guilt, Keller is forced to act when the officer in charge of the investigation, Det. Loki (Gyllenhaal), has to release Alex due to lack of evidence. He therefore decides to kidnap Jones and hold him captive until he gives up the location of his daughters. Will his desperation cost him his soul?

Prisoners is set to debut in roughly 3,150 theaters starting Friday. The early buzz on this film, which started at CinemaCon this year, was very positive, and most of the reviews have been positive, so there’s that. Crime dramas can often be hit or miss, however, and the genre doesn’t have quite the built-in fanbase that horror films do, so there’s no way that Prisoners will debut as high as Insidious Chapter 2 did.

Horror films normally suffer big drops in their second week, but the lack of new films may keep Insidious’s number up to the point where it could still battle Prisoners for that #1 spot. I still think Prisoners will prevail, however, to the tune of about $23M. For the very reasonable price of $13 in Ultimate ($12 in Box Office), I think you will end up with nine Top 5 points, four PTA, and $64M. Though not crime dramas, Prisoners will run into competition in early October with the releases of Gravity and Captain Phillips, but it should prosper for two weeks, anyway. Plus, the User Rating is already off to a great start, so that’s something else to consider. If you didn’t grab Insidious (or even if you did), I’d seriously think about taking Prisoners (heh).




In 2009, director Benson Lee released a documentary about B-boying – a combination of hip-hop dancing and breakdancing – entitled Battle of the Year, which is also the name of a yearly international dance competition that features dance crews from all over the world. It’s often called the “World Cup” of B-boying. Last year, Lee completed a full-length feature on the same subject, also called Battle of the Year (Sony/Screen Gems). It is set for a theater count just shy of 2,000.

Like most “dance crew” movies, Battle of the Year has a familiar plot: Dante (Laz Alonso), desperate to field an American team in the competition with a shot at winning – something no American team has done in fifteen years – hires a down-and-out basketball coach (Josh Holloway) to whip a group of athletic but headstrong young men into just such a team, a team that includes Franklyn (Drake & Josh’s Josh Peck) and Rooster (recording artist Chris Brown). So, yeah, it’s an underdog story. With dancing!

Despite the prolific number of dance competition shows on television, the market for this genre is pretty small. Plus, Battle of the Year has been bounced around the scheduled for a while, and the wasteland of September is probably as good a spot as any for it. Any other time, it wouldn’t even have a shot at Top 5, but I think a $6M opening should be good for two Top 5 points, and that’s about it. It’s as cheap a wide-release pick as there is ($6 in both leagues), but the reason for that should be obvious. It’ll probably make around $15M tops, and that’s just not enough. Should be good in Bankrupts, though.




Up next is Rush (Universal), the latest directorial outing from Ron Howard, which is being given a very limited release this week (five theaters) before going nationwide next week. No, it’s not a biopic about the Canadian rock band (though that would be awesome); rather, it’s a biographical sports film about the real-life rivalry between two Formula One racers, James Hunt (Chris Hemsworth) and Niki Lauda (Daniel Bruhl).

Though both skilled, Englishman Hunt and Austrian Lauda have completely contrasting personalities, with Hunt being flamboyant, charismatic and a playboy, and Lauda being all business. Their rivalry grew as they constantly tried to outrace each other, until a catastrophic crash in Germany in 1976 nearly killed Lauda. Determined to get back on the track, however, Lauda made a miraculous recovery against all odds and raced against Hunt in the World Championship in Japan. Olivia Wilde also co-stars.

It’s a potent combination, with Howard re-teaming up with his Frost/Nixon screenwriter Peter Morgan. Hemsworth, of course, is world-famous now because of his role as Thor in the recent Avengers movie (and Thor: The Dark World coming in November), so his fan-base has been growing steadily for a while now, so it’s entirely possible that Rush will be a hit. However, Formula One is not NASCAR, and there probably aren’t that many youngsters who even know about the Hunt-Lauda rivalry. Still, the film has been pretty much universally lauded by critics, and word of mouth may make this a surprise hit.

I’ll reserve my prediction for Rush’s wide opening for next week. However, in five theaters, it has a very good shot at the PTA crown, though any PTA points it gets this week will likely be its only ones. For a price tag of $12 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office), I think it will get four or five Top 5 points, four or five PTA, and about $45M. You’ll be helped by the film’s outstanding Rating, but it’s still an iffy prospect otherwise.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s other limited-release films:

Enough Said (Fox Searchlight) ($5 Ult, $2 BO) – Director Nicole Holofcener (Friends with Money) is behind the camera for this comedy, which features one of the final on-screen performances of James Gandolfini, who died suddenly of a heart attack three months ago. The main character, however, is Eva (Julia Louis-Dreyfus), a divorced masseuse who is dreading her daughter’s impending departure for college. At a party, however, she meets Albert (Gandolfini), another divorced parent who now lives alone.

In one of life’s funny little coincidences, Eva takes on a new client, Marianne (Catherine Keener) who constantly rags on her ex-husband, only to find out later that said ex-husband is Albert. Eva must then find some way to reconcile the two conflicting images she has of him in order to try to figure out whether a relationship with him is even possible. Toni Collette also co-stars.

Enough Said is set to debut in four theaters on Wednesday. Early reviews have been spectacular, and I would be surprised if it didn’t earn at least a few PTA points, especially given Gandolfini’s untimely demise. I don’t think it will hold on for multiple weeks, however, so spending $5 on it is not without its risks.




Thanks for Sharing (Roadside Attractions) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This comedy-drama from director Stuart Blumberg (who co-wrote the screenplay for The Kids are All Right) stars Gwyneth Paltrow (The Avengers) and Mark Ruffalo (also The Avengers… how about that?), as well as Tim Robbins, Josh Gad, Joely Richardson, and Alecia Moore (aka Pink).

The plot: Adam (Ruffalo), Mike (Robbins) and Neil (Gad) are all undergoing a twelve-step program to help get their sex addiction under control. The difficulties involved with this affect all three men differently, and they must support each other lest their problem destroy what few relationships they still have.

It seems like Thanks for Tharing could be in line for a few PTA points, but the competition seems to be more up to the task, and reviews have not been nearly as strong for it as they were for The Kids are All Right. I would probably pass on this one.




Haute Cuisine (Weinstein Co.) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This comedy is another import from France. The title, which means “high cooking”, or the type of meticulously-prepared food one expects at only the finest-quality restaurants and hotels… or, in this case, the palace where the current President of France resides. When the President (Jean d’Ormesson) hires renowned chef Hortense Laborie (Catherine Frot) as his own personal chef, she wastes no time in turning the kitchen upside-down, and ruffling a few feathers among the staff in the process. And though her presences rekindles Le President’s love of food, her personality may make trouble for him that he didn’t expect.

Haute Cuisine is set to debut on two screens starting Friday. And while many French films often become PTA giants, I can’t see this being one of them. Pass.




My predictions for the weekend of September 20-22, 2013:

1. Prisoners - $23 million
2. Insidious Chapter 2 - $19 million
3. The Family - $10 million
4. Battle of the Year - $6 million
5. Riddick - $4 million
6. Lee Daniels’ The Butler - $4 million

PTA (all leagues): Rush, Enough Said, Blue Caprice, Prisoners, Salinger

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Prisoners – 84% (16/19 positive), 7.9 (519 votes)
Battle of the Year – N/A, N/A
Rush – 97% (36/37 positive), 8.3 (2,239 votes)
Enough Said – 100% (14/14 positive), 7.4 (83 votes)
Thanks For Sharing – 62% (8/13 positive), 6.1 (461 votes)
Haute Cuisine – 70% (7/10 positive), 5.9 (1,059 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we end yet another month with another batch of films, all set to debut on September 27. We have Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2, the sequel to the zany 2009 film of the same name (minus the 2, of course); Don Jon, the directorial debut of actor Joseph Gordon-Levitt (who also stars); Baggage Claim, a romantic comedy starring Paula Patton; rockumentary Metallica Through the Never; and finally, Therese, a thriller starring Elizabeth Olsen.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Richard Marx (singer) turns 50 on 9/16
Rita Rudner (comedienne) turns 60 on 9/17
James Marsden (the X-Men trilogy) turns 40 on 9/18
Jerry Bruckheimer (prolific TV and film producer) turns 70 on 9/21
Maggie Grace (Taken, Lost) turns 30 on 9/21
Toni Basil (singer) turns 70 on 9/22

Later!

[Ron Burgundy]

Blue Caprice at $3 is already a steal for PTA, would have been a much better pick than Populaire. Why didnt i listen to you Shryke?!

Insidious 2 had $20 Mil by Friday, another $20 in the next couple of days, i wonder what the figures for The Purge and The Conjuring were for Friday/Weekend ratio, also perhaps Mama. Its been a really good year for horrors so far this year, if this trend continues 'Carrie' might be another big fish. While on the other side of the coin, Science Fiction- Oblivion, Pacific Rim and Elysium have all been disappointing Box Office wise, i thought the latter two were actually good movies. So does that mean 'Gravity' is is trouble already?

Im really interested to see how Rush goes, last year we had that musical Pitch Perfect released towards the end of September and that went on to get $65 Mil, some Top 5 and PTA. Rush is opening with much smaller, (5 compared to 335), but Pitch Perfect had a solid $15,000 PTA. I would think if the word of mouth is strong, like you said Shryke, it could battle for the second spot next week if it gets a saturated release. But who knows what the final amount could be.

Thanks for the weekly preview Shryke, Great job.

[numbersix]

Hmm, think you're high on Prisoners. While it does look like a good thriller and the reviews have been great (plus it got a mention in Toronto). However, I can't help but compare it to Zodiac, another thriller clocking almost 2 and a half hours that received good reviews and had a solid cast (including Jake Gyllenhaal) which only opened to 13m in March. Granted, that was up against Wild Hogs, where this has no competition until Rush goes wide next week, but I fear this won't deliver the goods. I do think it will hold well, though.

As for PTA, I think Rush will win, followed by Enough Said, although I do think the latter will earn more points next weekend. Thanks for Sharing might nab 2 or 3 points, and I've little hope for Haute Cuisine.

Also, re next weekend I don't think Therese is getting released. There's nothing on the Roadside Attractions site and I think I read its release was being pushed to next year.

1. Insidious Chapter 2 - $18 million
2. Prisoners - $15 million
3. The Family - $7 million
4. Battle of the Year - $7 million
5. Lee Daniels’ The Butler/We're the Millers - $4 million

[numbersix]

Tracking...

MTC: Prisoners - 17m, Battle - 6m

[BrocksterDuex]

Based on the ENORMOUS drop for Insidious 2 on Monday and Tuesday I would not be surprised to see a 10-11M second weekend.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I originally thought Prisoners was going to fly under the radar, but I'm seeing Hugh Jackman everywhere promoting it and I'm hearing non-movie people express interest. May do a tad better, like around $20-$23M. It helps to have no competition, of course.

Battle of The Year feels like it was filmed in 2008, and even then it was a few years too late for dance battle movies.

1. Prisoners - $21M
2. Insidious Chapter 2 - $14M
3. The Family - $6M
4. Battle of The Year - $5M
5. The Butler/Riddick/We're The Millers - $4M

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Prisoners - 3,260
Battle of the Year - 2,008
Thanks for Sharing - 269
Rush - 5
Enough Said - 4
Haute Cuisine - 3



Estimates for Next Week:

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 - 3,800+
Don Jon - 2,200
Rush - 2,200
Baggage Claim - 1,800

And Therese has been yanked from BOM's listing. Good call, Six.

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report


Ultimate FY (R7, R8, R9 - 19 players)

Prisoners - 1, 4, 4
Rush - 2, 6, 3
Battle of the Year - 0, 0, 0
Enough Said - 0, 2, 0
Thanks for Sharing - 0, 1, 0
Haute Cuisine - 1, 0, 0



Ultimate HY (R2, R3, R4 - 33 players)

Prisoners - 5, 7, 9
Rush - 5, 6, 2
Battle of the Year - 0, 0, 0
Enough Said - 0, 3, 4
Thanks for Sharing - 1, 3, 2
Haute Cuisine - 4, 0, 0



Box Office FY (R7, R8, R9 - 23 players)

Prisoners - 2, 5, 4
Rush - 4, 4, 0
Battle of the Year - 0, 0, 0
Enough Said - 1, 0, 2
Thanks for Sharing - 0, 1, 1
Haute Cuisine - 0, 0, 0



Box Office HY (R2, R3, R4 - 33 players)

Prisoners - 2, 9, 3
Rush - 7, 2, 1
Battle of the Year - 0, 0, 1
Enough Said - 1, 1, 1
Thanks for Sharing - 0, 3, 0
Haute Cuisine - 0, 1, 0



Bankrupts, 3rd Quarter (Ult, BO - 15 players each)

Prisoners - 1, 2
Battle of the Year - 3, 4

[Chienfantome]

Wait wait wait wait wait.... One person took Battle of the Year for the game ???!!

[numbersix]

interesting early numbers- Prisoners 20m+, BOTY 4m

And in PTA Enough Said beat Rush on Friday.

[JohnErle]

I'm a little surprised so few people chose Prisoners, especially in Ultimate.

I'm happy with a 20 million OW for a $12 price tag at this time of the year, especially since an adult-oriented drama with good reviews should be pretty leggy.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Prisoners, $7M
Insidious 2, $4.7M
The Family, $2.1M
Battle of the Year, $1.5M
We're the Millers, $1.4M
Instructions Not Included, $1.4M
The Butler, $1.2M
Riddick, $1M


Weekend Projections:

Prisoners, $20.5M
Insidious 2, $14M
The Family, $6.7M
Instructions Not Included, $5M
We're the Millers, $4.4M
Battle of the Year, $4.3M
The Butler, $4M
The Wizard of Oz 3D, $3M
Riddick, $3.4M
Planes, $2.5M

[Chienfantome]

I'm a little surprised so few people chose Prisoners, especially in Ultimate.

I'm happy with a 20 million OW for a $12 price tag at this time of the year, especially since an adult-oriented drama with good reviews should be pretty leggy.

Yeah me too. I have it on quite a few slates.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Prisoners, $21.4M
4 points - Insidious Chapter 2, $14.5 (down 64%)
3 points - The Family, $7.0M
Instructions Not Included, $5.7M
1 point - Battle of the Year, $5.0M
We're the Millers, $4.7M
Lee Daniels' The BUtler, $4.3M
Riddick, $3.7M
The Wizard of Oz 3D, $3.0M
Planes, $2.9M

PTA:
5 points - Enough Said (60K!)
4 points - Rush (40K)
3 points - Prisoners
2 points - Haute Cuisine
1 point - Insidious Chapter 2

Thanks For Sharing comes up empty. No word yet on Blue Caprice.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I'm happy with a 20 million OW for a $12 price tag at this time of the year, especially since an adult-oriented drama with good reviews should be pretty leggy.

It should have good legs, except that in the next few weeks, Prisoners is going to run into a lot of other adult dramas that will split the marketplace. Next week, Rush goes wide along with Enough Said (and Don Jon to some extent), and then Gravity and Runner Runner followed by Captain Phillips.