SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/28, 8/30

[Shrykespeare]

Lee Daniels’ The Butler took the top spot at the box office once again, dropping only 30% and earning another $17M. The only other film to reach eight digits was the surprise hit We’re the Millers, which earned another $13M and will in all likelihood reach blockbuster status sometime this week. The weekend’s three new films all failed to achieve $10M, and You’re Next broke the horror-success pattern with a miserable $7M OW. On the PTA front, The Grandmaster took first place by a huge margin.

The summer schedule’s a funny thing: August was jam-packed with low-yield titles, hoping to glean kids’ and teens’ last few bucks before returning to school. Thing is, kids are back in school already in many parts of the country, and you can only sell mediocrity so much. Three more movies will debut this week in wide (or semi-wide) release, and after that, the schedule will thin out considerably as we move into September. After a four-week stretch that saw the release of fourteen films in wide-release, the first three weeks of September will only see five. Like I said, a funny thing.

For those of you who don’t know (or care), One Direction is a boy band, the latest worldwide craze whose posters adorn the bedroom walls of preteen and teenage girls all over the planet. Signed to a record label in 2010 after their appearance on the British version of the talent show X-Factor by producer Simon Cowell, they have gone on to sell over 10 million albums and 20 million singles. And given how well the concert movie Justin Bieber: Never Say Never did in 2011 ($29M OW, $73M overall), it was inevitable that a movie featuring One Direction would be made. So rubber-band your balls, Jimmy, here comes One Direction: This us Us (TriStar), which is directed by Morgan Spurlock (Super Size Me).

Set to be released in over 2,500 theaters (including 3D), This Is Us – which, ironically, is also the title of a 2009 album by another boy band, The Backstreet Boys (and no, you can’t ask me how I know that) – is being billed as “an intimate all-access look at life on the road for the band, consisting of Niall, Zayn, Liam, Harry and Louis. The film will contain footage from their pre- and post-X-Factor career, as well as the premiere of the first single from their upcoming album.

Concert movies are so hit-and-miss, especially when they’re about flavor-of-the-month artists. For every success (like Never Say Never) you have several disappointments, such as last year’s Katy Perry: Part of Me ($25M) and 2009’s Jonas Brothers movie ($19M). I personally have no idea just how popular One Direction is in comparison to some of these acts, but given that I’ve seen next to no advertising for this film – and again, not that I frequently watch any channels that this film would advertise on – I would err on the side of caution.

I do expect This is Us to generate enough revenue to take first place this weekend, to the tune of about $15M. However, films like this tend to drop hard and fast after its first three days, and I expect the same thing with This Is Us. It will only run you $8 in the August Ultimate leagues, and for that, you may get upwards of seven or eight Top 5 points, and perhaps even some PTA, which isn’t bad. Unfortunately, the rather severe trade-off is that the User Rating will be dismal. It’s currently sitting at 2.6, and it is probably more likely to drop rather than climb, since One Direction, like Justin, is the kind of act that people line up to bash even if they’ve never heard a single one of their songs. For $9 in Box Office, I don’t think it will pan out either.




From director Courtney Solomon (An American Haunting) comes Getaway (Warner Bros.), an action thriller starring Ethan Hawke, who is coming off a very respectable summer with indie hit Before Midnight as well as horror-thriller The Purge. Hawke plays Brent Magna, a burned out racecar driver whose skills are put to the test once again after his wife is kidnapped by a mysterious villain (Jon Voight), who gives him a series of tasks to perform or his wife will be killed, and all while he is under strict surveillance from a series of cameras attached to the souped-up Mustang he is given to drive. Aiding him on this race against time is a computer-savvy girl known just as The Kid (Selena Gomez),

On paper, it looks like a lower-budget version of Die Hard with a Vengeance, but that was a damn fine action film, so I will definitely be giving Getaway its day in court. However, I am probably in the minority, and I honestly think that Getaway will battle The Butler and We’re the Millers for second place this week. It could get as many as five or six Top 5 points or as few as two; even if it’s the former, it’s still not really worth its price tag ($9 in both leagues), so I wouldn’t pick it in any league but Bankrupts.




Last up this week is Closed Circuit (Focus Features), a British suspense thriller that will be opening in a scant 800 theaters starting Wednesday. Eric Bana and Rebecca Hall play Martin and Claudia, two attorneys (and secret ex-lovers) who find themselves on opposite sides of the courtroom for a high-profile trial involving the only survivor of a terrorist cell suspected of bombing a crowded London marketplace.

Of course, when a trial like this also involves national security, the information required to conduct a fair trial is dispensed by the government, which, of course, has its own agenda. So the two former lovers make a pact to try to piece together not only the events of the tragedy, but to uncover a possible conspiracy that reaches up to the highest levels. Ciaran Hinds, Jim Broadbent, and Julie Stiles also co-star.

Like Getaway, I’m quite intrigued by this film. However, it honestly doesn’t matter how good it is (or even how well-reviewed it might be). With a platform of only 800 theaters – perhaps not surprising given how the bombing in the film so closely parallels the recent Boston Marathon bombing – it has no chance to prosper, not even against weak competition. No Top 5, probably no PTA, and if it makes $10M during its run, I’d be surprised. $8 spent on this film (in either league) will yield you naught.




I had hoped that the Rachel McAdams/Noomi Rapace drama Passion would be available for this weekend, but at the moment its release date on the Master List sits at 9/30, not 8/30, and my numerous requests to have it changed have been ignored. Therefore, I have removed it entirely from the game. Anyone who might have chosen it on any slate will have to replace it.


My predictions for the weekend of August 30-September 1, 2013:

1. One Direction: This is Us - $15 million
2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler - $10 million
3. Getaway - $10 mllion
4. We’re the Millers - $9 million
5. Either Planes or The World’s End - $6 million

PTA race: The Grandmaster, One Direction: This is Us, Getaway, Austenland, Lee Daniels’ the Butler

Current RT/IMDb scores:

One Direction: This is Us – N/A, 2.6 (439 votes)
Getaway – N/A, N/A
Closed Circuit – N/A, N/A

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we officially christen the Fall Season with five new films, only one of which will be featured in wide release. Vin Diesel reprises his role as everyone’s favorite futuristic badass in Riddick, his third go-round as the character. In limited release, we have documentaries Salinger, 99% - The Occupy Wall Street Collaborative Film and Fire in the Blood, as well as French comedy Populaire.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Keke Palmer (Akeelah and the Bee, Joyful Noise) turns 20 on 8/26
Tuesday Weld (Thief, Once Upon a Time in America) turns 70 on 8/27
Peter Stormare (Fargo, Armageddon, The Big Lebowski) turns 60 on 8/27
David Soul (TV’s Starsky and Hutch) turns 70 on 8/28
Richard Attenborough (The Great Escape, Jurassic Park) turns 90 on 8/29
Michael Chiklis (The Shield, Fantastic Four) turns 50 on 8/30

Later!

[numbersix]

Another crappy weekend. One Direction could be a Jonas Bros or a Miley Cyrus. Tough call. I think it'll land somewhere in the middle, opening in the mid teen and not making much more than 35m. The other two films look like duds to me.

That leaves PTA wide open, as Grandmasters is expanding to 500+ theatres ensuring that it won't make a whole lot - it's not a traditional martial arts flick. I think it'll be a battle between Austenland, The Butler, and One Direction for the top.

1. One Direction: This is Us - $14 million
2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler - $11 million
3. We’re the Millers - $9 million
4. Getaway - $6 million
5. Planes - $6 million

Closed Circuit - $2 million

[transformers2]

1.One Direction: This is Us $15 mil
2.The Butler $13 mil
3.We're the Millers $9 mil
4.Getaway $8 mil
5.Planes $5 mil

[numbersix]

Tracking...

One Direction: MS mid teens, MTC 17m
Getaway: MS low single digits, MTC 5m
Closed Circuit: MS mid single digits, MTC 2m

[Chienfantome]

Another glorious weekend in perspective

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Concert movies are so hit-and-miss, especially when they’re about flavor-of-the-month artists. For every success (like Never Say Never) you have several disappointments, such as last year’s Katy Perry: Part of Me ($25M) and 2009’s Jonas Brothers movie ($19M). I personally have no idea just how popular One Direction is in comparison to some of these acts

I don't think it's a case of how popular an artist is when it comes to these 3D movies, moreso it's the type of fan they have. For instance, Katy Perry is extremely mainstream and appeals to all ages, with a lower percentage being rabid young girls. Her adult fans don't care about a concert movie and it flops.

Contrast that to Hannah Montana in 2008, who didn't appeal to pretty much anyone over the age of 14 at the time (and these days, appeals to pretty much no one), but had an extremely centralized fanbase of young girls who'd rush out and pay whatever for anything and everything stamped with her likeness. Justin Bieber in 2011 also falls under this.

I think 1D is very much more Justin Bieber/Hannah Montana than Katy Perry/Jonas Brothers. They are not played on Top 40 radio (at least not around here, Buffalo/Toronto), but just won Song of The Summer at the VMAs, purely from the strength of fan voting. And who's voting for things as insignificant as the VMAs other than pre-teen girls with nothing better to do?

(Jonas may be the exception to the rule, although it can be argues that a nice chunk of their fans back then were women over the age of 18 that considered them a guilty pleasure, and would never plunk down $12 to admit they like that music publicly.)

[JohnErle]

I just wish there was some way to find room in my Bankrupts slate for Closed Circuit. The only way I can squeeze it in leaves me with $94 spent. Can't we add $1 to its price tag?

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

One Direction: This is Us - 2,735
Getaway - 2,130
Closed Circuit - 870


Estimates for Next Week:

Riddick - 2,800
Salinger - 4
Populaire - 3

[Shrykespeare]

BREAKING NEWS

When I wrote my column last weekend, the Master List still had Passion schedule to come out on 9/30, not 8/30. I had sent numerous requests to Mario and had not heard back. It seemed like it was too late to have it included in the game, so I then suggested he remove it from the list entirely.

But....

I just checked some of the Super Leagues for July and August, and apparently Mario DID move the film to August 30th.

So even though I did not write anything about it, it is part of the game, and is eligible for PTA points.

This lack of communication really sucks some times.

[Chienfantome]

Well let's just hope that it doesn't get any PTA points then...

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Well let's just hope that it doesn't get any PTA points then...

I don't think we have to worry about that, it's getting terrible reviews and I'm pretty sure it's already available on VOD.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

One Direction, $8.9M
The Butler, $3.6M
We're the Millers, $3.1M
Planes, $1.7M
Elysium, $1.6M
The Mortal Instruments, $1.4M
Getaway, $1.4M
The World's End, $1.3M
You're Next, $1.1M
Percy Jackson, $1.0M
Closed Circuit, $750K


Weekend Projections:

One Direction, $21M
The Butler, $14.5M
We're the Millers, $12M
Planes, $7.5M (wow, this just keeps hanging around, doesn't it???)
Elysium, $6.3M
The Mortal Instruments, $5.4M
The World's End, $5.1M
Getaway, $4.4M
Percy Jackson, $4.2M
You're Next, $4.0M


At this point, One Direction is the only wide-release film that will have a PTA over $5,000. This category is wide open. The Grandmaster expanded to 749 theaters and will likely not get any more points.

[Chienfantome]

It should be an interesting weekend PTA wise, some films we didn't expect to grab that many points will earn a few extra more.

[JohnErle]

It's being reported that Instructions Not Included will earn about $5.5 million for the weekend, placing it ahead of Closed Circuit and Getaway. That really came out of nowhere in game terms. Have any of you Americans ever heard of this Eugenio Derbez guy? Has Lionsgate nabbed the Mexican Kevin Hart or maybe the Mexican Tyler Perry?

[Shrykespeare]

Bumped to next page.