SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/16

[Shrykespeare]

Matt Damon’s sci-fi actioner Elysium took first place this past weekend, earning $30.4M and edging out the very game Jennifer Aniston comedy We’re the Millers, which finished in second at $26.5M. The two other newcomers, Disney’s Planes and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters came in third and fourth, earning $22.5M and $14.6M respectively. On the PTA front, Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine regained the top spot from The Spectacular Now, bringing it’s incredible total to fourteen points so far.

As the summer season winds down, we continue to wade through the glut of films being shoved into theaters in a matter not unlike clowns being discharged from a Volkswagen. Four more films will be released this weekend (all on Friday), and unlike last week’s four big films, all of which were given platforms over 3,000 theaters and three of which came from a major studio, the four films debuting this week are going to be showing in between 2,000 and 2,800 theaters, and only one of which is from a major studio.

That film is Kick Ass 2 (Universal), the sequel to 2010’s Kick Ass, which earned over $48M in late spring/early summer 2010. Based on the comic book of the same name by Mark Millar, it will feature the return of all of the major characters from the first film, although the directing reins have been handed off from Matthew Vaughn to Jeff Wadlow (Cry Wolf, Never Back Down). It is set for a 2,800-theater release starting Friday.

In the first film, comic geek David Lizewski (Aaron Johnson) decided to make his dream of being a superhero a reality. With few actual fighting skills and a slightly decreased sense of pain, he donned a green-and-yellow coverall and proceeded to dispense vigilante justice where he could. Eventually, though, he ran afoul of a vicious mobster (Mark Strong), and a battle between Kick Ass and his “partner”, 11-year-old Hit Girl (Chloe Moretz), saw the mobster dead and Hit Girl’s family avenged.

The second chapter of stories like these often involve revenge, and the mobster’s son Chris (Christopher Mintz-Plasse) is determined to exact vengeance on the people that made him an orphan. To do so, he adopts a new guise, The Mother Fucker, and attempts to raise a super-villain army in order to achieve this goal. Joining the fight on Kick Ass’s side are a bevy of new costumed vigilantes, including David’s buddy Marty (Clark Duke) and Colonel Stars and Stripes (Jim Carrey). The supporting cast includes Donald Faison, John Leguizamo, and Morris Chestnut, and Lyndsy Fonseca also returns as David’s girlfriend Katie.

I think Kick Ass 2 will win the weekend, posting about $25M on its way to seven Top 5, two PTA, a Rating around 7.4 and about $56M. Those are decent numbers for its price tag ($14 Ult, $13 BO), but not spectacular, and certainly not assured. The question to ask yourself is: did this film build enough of a following during and after the theatrical release of the first installment to make it viable? You decide.




The new film this week with the largest long-term potential is Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Weinstein Co.), a historical drama starring Forest Whitaker (who is also coming up later this year in both Out of the Furnace and Black Nativity) as Cecil Gaines, who was employed as a White House manservant from 1952-86, under the tenure of no fewer than six U.S. presidents.

The format would seem to be somewhat akin to that of Best Picture Winner Forrest Gump, who seemed to mildly affect political change or pop culture without even realizing it. However, Cecil has a much more tangible and precarious duty, as he must do his part to subtly influence the Commanders in Chief without overstepping his duties, during a time when political upheaval and social change were rampant.

It’s worth noting that this film also features the first appearance by television magnate Oprah Winfrey in her first non-animated role since 1998’s Beloved (and only her fourth overall). Also in the cast are a bevy of stalwart Hollywood actors, who will play some of the most influential figures of the 20th century, including Dwight Eisenhower (Robin Williams), John F. Kennedy (James Marsden), Lyndon Johnson (Liev Schreiber), Richard Nixon (John Cusack), Ronald and Nancy Reagan (Alan Rickman, Jane Fonda), and Martin Luther King Jr. (Nelsan Ellis). Other supporting actors are Cuba Gooding Jr., Terrence Howard, Vanessa Redgrave, and Mariah Carey.

It’s perhaps not a coincidence that this exact weekend two years ago saw the release of The Help, another racially-charged period drama that took off like a rocket at the box office, debuting with over $26M in almost exactly the same number of theaters (around 2,500) and riding that gravy train to nearly $170M in receipts and four Oscar nominations (including one win for Best Supporting Actress Octavia Spencer). The Butler would seem to be targeting the same audience.

Can The Butler make it to nine figures? Honestly, I don’t think so, but I didn’t think The Help would either (not one of my better prognostications). I can say this: for only $12 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office), you could end up with a real bargain. It may only get six or seven Top 5 points, and perhaps a few PTA, but the Rating should be terrific and I would be surprised if it didn’t earn at least $80M overall. I would grab it.




Australian director Robert Luketic’s very first big outing was 2001’s very popular and successful Legally Blonde. Since then, his comedic outings have resulted in nothing but disappointment – Monster in Law, Win a Date With Tad Hamilton!, The Ugly Truth, and 2010 godawful Killers. His only other success in the past decade came with the 2008 heist drama 21, which earned over $135M worldwide. And even though his latest film, Paranoia (Relativity) is a dramatic thriller and not a comedy, I don’t expect a lot of success for it.

Based on the novel of the same name by Joseph Finder, Paranoia stars Liam Hemsworth (The Hunger Games) as Adam Cassidy, a young wise-ass whose shenanigans threaten to cost him his job as a low-level worker at a technology corporation. To save his job and continue to be able to support his father (Richard Dreyfuss), he is cajoled by his scheming boss, Nicholas Wyatt (Gary Oldman), into undertaking a mission of corporate espionage, spying on Wyatt’s former mentor and now bitter rival, Jock Goddard (Harrison Ford). Before he knows it, Adam ends up in way over his head, as the FBI prepares to close in. Amber Heard, Josh Holloway and Embeth Davidtz co-star.

Yes, Ford is coming off a great turn in 42, but it’s safe to say any fans of his are probably gearing up to see him in Ender’s Game and not this. I’ve barely seen any advertising for this, and I fully expect I fully expect Paranoia to be one of those films that makes barely a blip on the cinematic radar. It’s sparsely priced ($9 Ult, $9 BO) for just that reason. I foresee no Top 5, no PTA, a middling Rating and a result of $9M/$23M. In other words, a perfect Bankrupts pick.




If you’ve never heard of Steve Jobs, shame on you. Without him, the computer industry would not be nearly as advanced as it is today. In the early 1980s, he started Apple Inc. in his garage and built it into a multi-billion-dollar business, revolutionizing the computer industry. Without him, we wouldn’t have iPads, iTunes, iPhones or any of the like. Sadly, he succumbed to pancreatic cancer in 2011 at the age of only 56.

His somewhat tumultuous career, which including being fired from his own company in 1985, is portrayed in jOBS (Open Road Films), with Ashton Kutcher starring in the title role. The film chronicles Jobs’ life from his high school years to the introduction of the iPod in 2001. The film costars Josh Gad as Steve’s friend and fellow entrepreneur, Steve Wozniak, as well as Dermot Mulroney, Matthew Modine, J.K. Simmons and Lukas Haas.

I think Kutcher has the potential to be a decent dramatic actor, and this might be one step in that direction. But I wouldn’t put it on any slate but Bankrupts, because its prospects are about equal to that of Paranoia’s. That’s really all I have to say.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release films:

Ain’t Them Bodies Saints (IFC) ($5 Ult ,$3) – This drama from director David Lowery debuted at Sundance earlier this year, where it won the award for cinematography and was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize. It was also the U.S.’s entry in the International Critics’ Week at Cannes this past May. It stars Casey Affleck as Rob Muldoon, an outlaw who took the rap for his wife, Ruth (Rooney Mara) after a shootout with police left one officer dead. However, while in prison, he learns that Ruth has given birth to a daughter, he engineers a daring escape, determined to reunite with his family at any cost. Ben Foster and Keith Carradine also co-star.

Having done well at arguably the two most famous film festivals in the world, plus the fact that critics have loved it, would seem to make it a must-have. And I think it definitely has a shot at the PTA crown this week, especially given its theater count (three). However, according to IFC’s website, Ain’t Them Bodies Saints is set to be available for download next Friday, so it’s entirely possible that whatever PTA points it earns this week will be the only ones it gets. I would be surprised if it ended up with less than three PTA, but could get more given how weak the competition is coming up. I might take a chance on this on, VOD or not.




Austenland (Sony Classics) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – Twilight author Stephanie Meyer makes her first foray into film producing with this romantic comedy that was directed by Jerusha Hess (who had a hand in Napoleon Dynamite, both the film and the subsequent TV series). It stars Keri Russell as Jane Hayes, a single woman obsessed with Jane Austen’s classic period drama Pride and Prejudice, so much so that she jumps at the chance to travel to Austenland, a British resort that has recreated the era that P&P is set in.

Unfortunately for Jane, her meager means make it impossible for her to immerse herself in the place as much as the resort’s much wealthier patrons are able to. Determined to make her stay worth its price, she proceeds to turn the heads of the upper crust, and even begins to fall for a dashing servant (Bret McKenzie) in the hopes that he might be her Darcy. Jane Seymour and Jennifer Coolidge co-star.

It’s a cute premise for a film, and its initial theater count is promising (four). And while British comedies have done pretty well this year (Quartet, Unfinished Song), I can’t picture Austenland breaking out like those films did. It may get a couple PTA points, but that’s not enough to risk taking it, especially given its mediocre Rating.




My predictions for the weekend of August 16-18, 2013:

1. Kick Ass 2 - $25 million
2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler - $21 million
3. Elysium - $15 million
4. We’re the Millers - $14 million
5. Planes - $13 million
6. Paranoia - $9 million
7. jOBS - $8 million
8. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters - $8 million

PTA race (Jun/Jul): Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, Blue Jasmine, The Spectacular Now, Kick Ass 2, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

PTA race (Aug): Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, The Spectacular Now, Kick Ass 2, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Austenland

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Kick Ass 2 – 83% (5/6 positive), N/A
Lee Daniels’ The Butler – 79% (15/19 positive), N/A
Paranoia – N/A, N/A
jOBS – 38% (3/8 positive), 5.7 (2,866 votes)
Ain’t Them Bodies Saints – 85% (11/13 positive), 7.0 (494 votes)
Austenland – 56% (5/9 positive), 5.8 (280 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we take one more step closer to autumn with six more titles, four wide and two limited. We have The Morttal Instruments: City of Bones, another attempt to start a teen-fantasy franchise; horror flick You’re Next; The World’s End, a sci-fi/horror/comedy starring Simon Pegg; and The Grandmaster, a martial arts action flick from director Wong Kar Wai. For PTA potential, we have an American rom-com (Drinking Buddies) and a French drama (You Will Be My Son).

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Sebastian Stan (Captain America: The First Avenger) turns 30 on 8/13
Mila Kunis (Family Guy, Black Swan) turns 30 on 8/14
Julie Newmar (Seven Brides for Seven Brothers) turns 80 on 8/16
Kathie Lee Gifford (The Today Show) turns 60 on 8/16
Robert De Niro (Raging Bull, Goodfellas) turns 70 on 8/17
Roman Polanski (director, Rosemary’s Baby and Chinatown) turns 80 on 8/18
Martin Mull (Mrs. Doubtfire, Clue) turns 70 on 8/18

Later!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Old people love Jane Austen, right? That's my reasoning behind picking Austenland up in every league, at least.

I've actually seen way too much marketing for Paranoia, it's pretty annoying. It's making me think Relativity knows it's got a dud on its hands, and they want to pad that opening weekend as much as possible.

Kick-Ass 2 is Universal? I thought the first was Lionsgate...

And I'd be ecstatic if The Butler got to half of what The Help did, I don't think it has the same pedigree.

[numbersix]

I'm slightly wary of KA2. Perhaps because the reviews won't be as strong, it looks silly (whereas the first one tried to balance silly violence and realism), and it's a bad release date. I think $20m is its upper possibility. The Butler wasn't a hugely successful novel and so won't come close to The Help, but it should hold well whatever it makes. And Paranoia and Jobs are duds.

As for PTA I've a lot riding on Ain't them Bodies Saints so it better perform next weekend too.

1. Kick Ass 2 - $20 million
2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler - $18 million
3. We’re the Millers - $14 million
4. Elysium - $13 million
5. Planes - $13 million

Jobs and Paranoia - both around $6m

[transformers2]

1.Kick-Ass 2 $22 mil
2.The Butler $19 mil
3.We're the Millers $16 mil
4.Elysium $14 mil
5.Planes $13 mil
6.Paranoia $12 mil
7.Jobs $10 mil

[numbersix]

Tracking...

Kick Ass 2: RS low 20s, MTC 26m
The Butler: RS mid teens, MTC 20.5m
Paranoia: RS mid teens, MTC 5.1m
Jobs: RS mid singles, MTC 9.4m

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Kick Ass 2 - 2,940
The Butler - 2,933
Paranoia - 2,459
Jobs - 2,381
Ain't Them Bodies Saints - 3


Estimates for next week:

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones - 3,000
You're Next - 2,400
The World's End - 1,400
The Grandmaster - 7

1,400 for World's End? Ouch. Good luck getting to $20M now.

[silversurfer19]

Yikes, that's really bad. Looks like the DVD fans of the Cornetto Trilogy doesn't translate to BO figures, at least according to the studios...

Awesome news re. The Grandmaster's theatre count though, should be good for quite a few PTA now.

[BrocksterDuex]

VERY early reports showing Butler at 30M for the weekend...wowza!

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report


Ultimate FY (R6, R7, R8 - 22 players)

Kick Ass 2 - 0, 1, 0
The Butler - 3, 8, 7
Ain't Them Bodies Saints - 4, 3, 4
Austenland -2, 1, 1


Ultimate HY (R1, R2, R3 - 41 players)

Kick Ass 2 - 5, 4, 6
The Butler - 2, 12, 17
Paranoia - 1, 0, 1
Ain't Them Bodies Saints - 11, 11, 11
Austenland -3, 1, 2


Box Office FY (R6, R7, R8 - 27 players)

Kick Ass 2 - 0, 0, 1
The Butler - 5, 9 ,14
Austenland - 0, 1, 0


Box Office HY (R1, R2, R3 - 42 players)

Kick Ass 2 - 3, 5, 5
The Butler - 4, 0, 17
Paranoia - 0, 1, 0
Ain't Them Bodies Saints - 2, 1, 0
Austenland - 1, 2, 0


Bankrupts, 3rd Quarter (Ult, BO - 15 players each)

Kick Ass 2 - 4, 4
The Butler - 1, 2
Paranoia - 7, 9
Jobs - 1, 0
Ain't Them Bodies Saints - 1, 0

[Shrykespeare]

Early Weekend Projections, per BoxOffice.com:

The Butler - $25M
Kick Ass 2 - $18.5M
Jobs - $11.5M
Paranoia - $5.5M


Well, that's more than I thought Jobs would end up with. Assuming We're the Millers and Planes drop 50% or so, it'll still miss the Top 5.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

The Butler, $8.3M
Kick Ass 2, $5.8M
We're the Millers, $5.4M
Elysium, $3.9M
Planes, $3.6M
Jobs, $2.6M
Percy Jackson, $2.5M
2 Guns, $1.7M
The Smurfs 2, $1.3M
Paranoia, $1.3M


Weekend Projections:

The Butler, $24.5M
We're the Millers, $17.5M (wow)
Kick Ass 2, $15.3M
Elysium, $12.5M
Planes, $12.0M
Percy Jackson, $7.8M
Jobs, $7.0M
2 Guns, $5.5M
The Smurfs 2, $4.5M
The Wolverine, $4.0M
Paranoia, $4.0M

[Shrykespeare]

How's this for a PTA shocker?


Top 10:
5 points - Lee Daniels' The Butler, $25.0M
4 points - We're the Millers, $17.8M
3 points - Elysium, $13.60M
2 points - Kick Ass 2, $13.57M
1 point - Planes, $13.1M
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, $8.4M
Jobs, $6.7M
2 Guns, $5.6M
The Smurfs 2, $4.5M
The Wolverine, $4.4M

#13. Paranoia, $3.5M
PTA (Jun/Jul):
5 points - Austenland
4 points - Blue Jasmine
3 points - Ain't Them Bodies Saints
2 points - Lee Daniels' The Butler
1 point - The Spectacular Now

PTA (Aug):
5 points - Austenland
4 points - Ain't Them Bodies Saints
3 points - Lee Daniels' The Butler
2 points - The Spectacular Now
1 point - We're the Millers


Regarding You Will Be My Son: it was originally supposed to come out next month, but BOM moved it on the docket to next Friday.... and then it magically appeared on the Weekend Estimates list this week. (Ironically, it was #1 in PTA.) So therefore, I have asked Mario to have it removed from the game entirely. Goddamn BOM.

That is now 18 PTA points for Blue Jasmine. And 10 for Spectacular Now. But how about Austenland! Who saw that coming?!

[W]

Looks like Paranoia is a good pickup in Bankrupts.

[silversurfer19]

Wish I'd taken Blue Jasmine in more than one league, it's Woody Allen for God's sake! Glad I banked on The Spectacular Now though, although I think a lot of other players did too. And The Butler should turn out a decent pick too, despite it's IMDB rating. I have it on most leagues, and with the lack of competition for the rest of August and September, it should hopefully pick up quite a few more Top 5s to go with a couple of PTA.

Glad I avoided Kick Ass though, I was tempted due to most tracking suggested it would finish in top spot, but man, that's almost as big a bomb as Paranoia, at least in terms of the game. 2 Top 5's, no PTA and probably no more than $40m. We expected too much for the first movie, and we were conned into believing it's sequel would do better! Thankfully I avoided it on every league in the end.

[JohnErle]

That's definitely more than I expected from The Butler. I figured the old man makeup and bizarre stunt casting of American presidents would have hurt the box office. And Oprah didn't help Beloved get over $40 million adjusted, so if it holds well it'll be a surprisingly great pick in BO.

Glad I had enough sense to stay away from Kick-Ass, but it flopped even harder than I anticipated.

I actually was hoping for a bit more from Austenland. SPC also released The Jane Austen Book Club a few years ago and that managed $4 million after starting off in limited release. I was hoping for something similar from Austenland, and maybe more with the Stephanie Meyer connection, but now I'm not so sure. Oh well. I needed a $2 filler on one slate, so it's not like it'll make a huge difference either way.