SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/31, 8/2

[Shrykespeare]

The Wolverine slashed up its competition this past weekend, pulling in a semi-impressive $55M en route to an easy box office victory. Minute drops helped the rest of the Top 5 hold fast, especially The Conjuring, which bucked the trend of humongous drops for horror films’ second weeks by taking in another $22M after dropping only 47%. Despicable Me 2 came in third with another $16M, crossing the $300M plateau in the process. On the PTA front, Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine posted a score of over $100K, a truly outstanding number that few films in the history of this game have ever achieved.

So now we turn the calendar over to August… kind of. Yes, there will be four new films opening on Friday, August 2, but due to a quick in the schedule, there is also one film opening on Wednesday, July 31. What this means for The Smurfs 2 (Sony/Columbia) is this: this film is not part of the May-July leagues, which technically end today. However, because it’s still a “July” film per se, it won’t be part of the August leagues either. It will, therefore, only be part of the June and July leagues. And now that that’s cleared up…

The Smurfs, for those not in the know, are diminutive creatures with blue skin that used to live in medieval times, living a peaceful existence in the forest. Their enemy was the evil wizard Gargamel, who wanted nothing more than to harness the Smurfs’ magical essences. (Why? I dunno… he is a wizard, after all.) Foiling his evil schemes was the central theme of the animated cartoon series, which ran for nearly the entire decade of the 80’s. However, in 2011, many of the central characters – including Papa Smurf, Smurfette, Brainy, Gutsy, Clumsy and Grouchy – got sucked into a vortex (along with Gargamel) that deposited them into modern-day New York. Hijinks ensued.

Picking up from where the last movie left off (I think), Gargamel (Hank Azaria), now a celebrity wizard, concocts another scheme to steal the Smurfs’ magic. To do this, he creates Smurf-sized creatures called Naughties, including Vexy (Christina Ricci) and Hackus (J.B. Smoove), to try to coax Smurfette (Katy Perry) to the “dark side”, which I guess means Gargamel can do his thing. Other supporting cast members include Neil Patrick Harris and Jayma Mays returning as Patrick and Grace, the hapless humans caught in the middle, as well as the late, great Jonathan Winters as the voice of Papa Smurf (his last film role).

The Smurfs 2 will be opening in upwards of 3,400 theaters starting Wednesday, nearly two years to the day after its predecessor, which became a late-summer hit in 2011, earning $35M on its OW on its way to eleven Top 5 points and $142M overall. I will apply the law of diminishing returns to this sequel (which is part two of a planned trilogy, with the third chapter tentatively scheduled for 2015) and predict an OW of $27M ($38M for the 5-day weekend), which may or may not be enough to beat The Wolverine’s second weekend, and a grand total of $75M. But even if it does do slightly better than that, the August schedule is a lot more crowded this year, and I can’t imagine much more than seven Top 5 for The Smurfs 2.

This film will run you $19 in Ultimate and $21 in Box Office for both the June and July leagues. I would not want to spend that kind of money on any film that has no shot at #1, and with The Wolverine and 2 Guns opening against it, it doesn’t, and I wouldn’t expect the Rating to be very high either. Between that and the scheduling quirk, I’d leave The Smurfs 2 off of your slates.




Mark Wahlberg has had an interesting career. He’s been one of the busiest actors in Hollywood the last few years, and it seems that he has no trouble at all moving from heavy dramas to comedies to action films. Since the turn of the decade, he’s had his share of misfires (most notable of which was this year’s Broken City and Pain & Gain), but he’s also had critical hits (The Fighter) and box office hits (Ted). His third film of 2013 (and likely his last) is 2 Guns (Universal), an action cop-comedy where he shares the screen (for the first time) with Hollywood veteran Denzel Washington.

The plot: NCIS agent Marcus Stigman (Wahlberg) and DEA agent Bobby Trench (Washington) are sent by the CIA to investigate each other, with each one believing that the other is stealing money from the mob. However, they realize too late that they are being set up, and so they must work together to find a way to return the stolen money… and stay alive. Paula Patton (who also starred with Washington in Déjà vu), James Marsden, Bill Paxton, Edward James Olmos and Fred Ward also co-star.

This is the second time that Wahlberg has worked with Icelandic director Baltasar Kormakur (the other being Contraband), and the film is placed pretty well in August’s leadoff weekend, the same weekend that saw The Other Guys (also starring Wahlberg) break out in 2010. I’m getting the same kind of buddy-cop feel from 2 Guns, and because of that, I’ll predict similar results. I predict an OW of $35 million, on its way to eight Top 5 points, four PTA, a decent Rating and $105 million, though that number could go down if either Elysium or Kick Ass 2 steal its thunder in upcoming weeks. For that reason, I would probably recommend 2 Guns more for Box Office ($16) than Ultimate (also $16), since the August schedule is so damn crowded. Your choice, but be warned that there may not be any more blockbusters coming for a good long while after this.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s limited-release films:

The Spectacular Now (A24) ($4 Ult, $3 BO) – From screenwriters Scott Neustadter and Michael Weber (500 Days of Summer) comes this comedy-drama starring Miles Teller (21 & Over) as Sutter Keely, a charming high-school senior that loves being the life of the party. However, after a drunken bender that culminates with his being dumped by his girlfriend, he wakes up on the lawn of Aimee Finecky (The Descendants’ Shailene Woodley), who is not at all Sutter’s type: she’s a “nice girl” who prefers reading sci-fi to dating. But even though they are worlds apart (heh), Sutter finds himself drawn to Aimee… and looking toward the future for the first time in his life. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Brie Larson and Mary Elizabeth Winstead also co-star.

It may interest you to know that The Spectacular Now won the Special Jury Prize at Sundance earlier this year for both Woodley’s and Teller’s performances, “two young actors who showed rare honesty, naturalism and transparency and whose performances brought up the best in each other”. Hmm. I don’t know if that will translate to PTA points, especially as I have been unable to determine how many theaters will be showing this film. But regardless, it’s hard to imagine Blue Jasmine not taking the PTA crown again this week, unless that film expands to a relatively high number. You’ll have to do some research. However, in the August leagues, where it only has to beat out three other films, it might definitely be one to consider.




Europa Report (Magnolia) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This sci-fi thriller from Ecuadorian director Sebastian Cordero stars Sharlto Copley (who also appears in Elysium next week), Michael Nyquist and Embeth Davidtz. It tells the story of a privately funded space mission to Europa, one of the moons of Jupiter, whose mission is to try to find potential sources of life. However, when they arrive, they find out that not only is there life, but said life is not that happy to see them…

Again, I’m hamstrung by not knowing how many theaters will be showing Europa Report, but I’m guessing it won’t be that many. Though the trailer brings to mind sci-fi films like 2001, it seems to basically be a monster movie like Prometheus. Based on that, I might recommend seeing the film, but putting it on your slates? I just can’t.




The Artist and the Model (Cohen Media Group) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – No, this isn’t a sequel to The Artist, the film that won the Best Picture Oscar in 2011, even though it is (partly) French and is shot in black and white. It is a Spanish drama (spoken in French with subtitles) from veteran director Fernando Trueba.

Taking place in occupied France of 1943, near the French/Spanish border, the film centers on Marc (Jean Rochefort), an aging sculptor who is tired of war-torn life and wishes nothing more than to complete his final masterpiece before it’s too late. That’s when he makes the acquaintance of Merce (Aida Folch), a young Spanish girl who escaped from a refugee camp. Unexpectedly, she becomes Marc’s muse, and the two form a bond that goes well beyond anything either of them expected.

It’s worth noting that The Artist and the Model was nominated for no fewer than thirteen awards at Spain’s version of the Oscars, though it ended up losing in nearly every category to either The Impossible or Blancanieves (wow, bad luck). Still, this is the kind of film that art-house devotees love, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this film earned a healthy number of PTA points, though remember, my recommendations of foreign indie films has been rather scattershot of late.




My predictions for the weekend of July 26-28, 2013:

1. 2 Guns - $35 million
2. The Wolverine - $28 million
3. The Smurfs 2 - $27 million
4. The Conjuring - $12 million
5. Despicable Me 2 – $10 million

PTA race (Jun/Jul): Blue Jasmine, The Spectacular Now, The Artist and the Model, 2 Guns, The Wolverine

PTA race (Aug): The Spectacular Now, The Artist and the Model, 2 Guns, Europa Report


Current RT/IMDb scores:

The Smurfs 2 – N/A, N/A
2 Guns – N/A, N/A
The Spectacular Now – 82% (9/11 positive), 6.8 (545 votes)
Europa Report – 67% (12/18 positive), 6.4 (4,144 votes)
The Artist and the Model – N/A, 6.8 (200 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we once again have a very crowded weekend scheduled, with no fewer than four major films hitting theaters. On Wednesday, we have the teen fantasy film Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, along with adult comedy We’re the Millers. On Friday, we have sci-fi action film Elysium, as well as Planes, an animated Cars spinoff from Disney. In limited release, we have Prince Avalanche and I Give It a Year.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Colin Hay (Men at Work lead singer) turns 60 on 7/29
Stephen Dorff (Blade) turns 40 on 7/29
Lisa Kudrow (Friends, Analyze This) turns 50 on 7/30
Coolio (rapper) turns 50 on 8/1
Tempestt Bledoe (The Cosby Show) turns 40 on 8/1
Butch Patrick (The Munsters) turns 60 on 8/2
James Hetfield (Metallica lead singer) turns 50 on 8/3
Michael Ealy (Think Like a Man) turns 40 on 8/3
Greta Gerwig (Greenberg, Frances Ha) turns 30 on 8/4

Later!

[numbersix]

While I want 2 Guns to perform well (it's on my draft slate), there#s something a bit too formulaic about this, not to mention the awful first trailer which showed the entire movie. Sure, the cast will guarantee a crowd, but it just feels like such a mediocre offering. As for The Smurfs, I can't see it performing as well as the first, not with the looming competition of Planes ahead.

On the PTA front, I think The Spectacular Now could do very well if it doesn't open in too many screens. Hard to tell with A24. Europa Report reminds me of Apollo 18, and The Artist and the Model doesn't have enough buzz to make it essential.

1. 2 Guns - $30 million
2. The Smurfs 2 - $26 million for the 3-day
3. The Wolverine - $25 million
4. The Conjuring - $12 million
5. Despicable Me 2 – $9 million

[numbersix]

Tracking

Smurfs 2: RS mid-high 30s, MTC 25m (3-day)
2 Guns: RS high 30s, MTC 24m

[transformers2]

I'm pretty high on 2 Guns. Marky Mark and Denzel seem like a winning combo that will bring out an audience and the marketing has been pretty strong. The Smurfs 2 I think will do alright, but not even come close to the 1st one overall.

1. 2 Guns $37 mil
2.The Smurfs 2 $26 mil (3-Day)
3.The Wolverine $25 mil
4.The Conjuring $13 mil
5.Despicable Me 2 $10 mil

[Chienfantome]

2 Guns can be thankful for its cast, because whatever money it makes, and it should be comfortable, will only rely on the Wahlberg / Washington combo, because that trailer isn't exciting, overlong and messy.

[BrocksterDuex]

2 Guns: RS high 30s, MTC 24m

That MTC number...Ouch...sends me into 2nd guessing my pick.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I don't know how The Smurfs 2 will do, but for what it's worth, my 6 year old niece would rather still see Turbo than Smurfs, and I tend to base my kids movie gameplay on her opinion, so I've stayed away.

Reviews for 2 Guns seem to be more positive, although its sitting exactly at 50 on RT. Wolverine probably won't hold that well, so it should have no problem reaching 30 mill this weekend.

I think the most interesting mystery of August is if Elysium will do well. Pacific Rim numbers are pretty much guaranteed with Matt Damon doing action sci-fi, but it can go much higher?

[BanksIsDaFuture]

And while this will have little consequence on the Top 5, I thought it was of note to mention that World War Z is supposed to be getting a wide IMAX re-release this weekend. Paramount trying to get to hat magic $200M domestic number.

So go check out Pacific Rim while you still have a chance!

[Chienfantome]

So go check out Pacific Rim while you still have a chance!

IN the end I'm glad I didn't take your offer in the draft.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

The Smurfs 2 - 3,866
2 Guns - 3,025
The Spectacular Now - 4
Europa Report - 3


Estimates for next week:

Planes - 3,400
We're the Millers - 3,150+
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters - 2,800
Elysium - 2,700+

Hmm. Elysium gets the smallest release, yet it's the clear favorite to win the weekend.

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report


Ultimate FY (R6, R7, R8 - 22 players)

The Smurfs 2 - 0, 1, 0
2 Guns - 3, 10, 10
The Spectacular Now - 8, 10, 15
Europa Report - 2, 0, 0
The Artist and the Model - 3, 1, 0


Ultimate HY (R1, R2, R5 - 41 players)

The Smurfs 2 - 0, 2, 0
2 Guns - 8, 17, 14
The Spectacular Now - 12, 10, 20
Europa Report - 1, 1, 0
The Artist and the Model - 4, 2, 0


Box Office FY (R6, R7, R8 - 27 players)

The Smurfs 2 - 0, 2, 0
2 Guns - 4, 13, 12
The Spectacular Now - 1, 1, 1
Europa Report - 0, 1, 0
The Artist and the Model - 1, 0, 0


Box Office HY (R1, R2, R3 - 42 players)

The Smurfs 2 - 2, 4, 0
2 Guns - 5, 20, 17
The Spectacular Now - 2, 2, 1
Europa Report - 0, 0, 0
The Artist and the Model - 5, 0, 0


Bankrupts Leagues, 3rd Quarter (Ult - 15 players; BO - 15 players)

The Smurfs 2 - 9, 4
2 Guns - 1, 0
Europa Report - 1, 0

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Deadline Friday/weekend estimates:

1. 2 Guns - 9.8/27M
2. The Wolverine - 6.4/18.7M (69% drop - yikes)
3. The Smurfs 2 - 5.7/18.0M
4. The Conjuring - 4.1/12.5M
5. Despicable Me 2 - 3.0/10.1M

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

2 Guns, $10M
The Wolverine, $6.4M
The Smurfs 2, $5.5M
The Conjuring, $4.3M
Despicable Me 2, $3.1M
Grown Ups 2, $2.4M
Turbo, $1.8M
Red 2, $1.6M
The Heat, $1.4M
Pacific Rim, $1.3M

Wow... no less than FIVE titles in the Top 10 with a "2" in the title. That may be a record.


Weekend Projections:
2 Guns, $28.5M
The Wolverine, $20.5M
The Smurfs 2, $17.7M ($27.3M 5-day)
The Conjuring, $13.3M
Despicable Me 2, $10.5M
Grown Ups 2, $7.7M
Turbo, $6.2M
Red 2, $5.7M
The Heat, $4.6M
Pacific Rim, $4.5M

[silversurfer19]

While it will probably hold decent enough, I guess we should be thankful this is the last we should see of The Smurfs. With it's reported budget of $120m, it won't be making back it's money, at least domestically.

[Shrykespeare]

Not sure what you mean by "the last", since a third film has already been greenlit for 2015.