SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/26/13

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » July 27th, 2013, 12:09 pm

Friday Estimates:

The Wolverine, $21M
The Conjuring, $7.4M
Despicable Me 2, $4.8M
Turbo, $4M
Grown Ups 2, $3.6M
Red 2, $2.7M
Pacific Rim, $2.2M
The Heat, $2.1M
R.I.P.D., $1.8M
Fruitvale Station, $1.5M

Weekend Projections:

The Wolverine, $54M
The Conjuring, $24M (43% drop, wholly remarkable for a horror movie)
Despicable Me 2, $16.3M (this will put it over $300M overall)
Turbo, $13.5M
Grown Ups 2, $11.3M
Red 2, $8.8M
Pacific Rim, $7.4M
The Heat, $6.8M
R.I.P.D., $5.7M
Fruitvale Station, $4.5M
Monsters University, $2.7M
World War Z, $2.7M

This would give The Wolverine a PTA of over $13K, and The Conjuring would come in at just under $8K, so both will probably point in the PTA category. Fruitvale Station's PTA of $4,200 will probably not earn it any more points.

numbersix · Post by **numbersix** » July 27th, 2013, 1:22 pm

There's no way The Conjuring earns 24m this weekend on the back of a 7.3m Friday. It'll be more like 18-20m. Someone got their maths wrong.

Blue Jasmine had a Friday PTA of 28K, so it's guaranteed 5 PTA points this weekend. Woody Allen+ great reviews = PTA goldmine.

silversurfer19 · Post by **silversurfer19** » July 27th, 2013, 2:09 pm

numbersix wrote:There's no way The Conjuring earns 24m this weekend on the back of a 7.3m Friday. It'll be more like 18-20m. Someone got their maths wrong.

It's the family weekend bump.

On a side note, I have to admit I was wrong on Despicable Me 2. I expected Monsters Uni to outperform it back at the beginning of May, yet it just keeps on going. Should have gone with DM2 for my full year. Wish I'd taken Blue Valentine in a few leagues too. Went with The Hunt and that backfired, thankfully I have enough successful PTA movies to keep me in the mix, but I suspect with such a big opening Blue Valentine will probably expand and bring in decent numbers in that category too.

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » July 27th, 2013, 4:08 pm

silversurfer19 wrote:Wish I'd taken Blue Valentine in a few leagues too.

So do I, but that was a couple years ago....

JohnErle · Post by **JohnErle** » July 27th, 2013, 4:13 pm

Blue Lagoon was a PTA juggernaut!

empire13 · Post by **empire13** » July 27th, 2013, 5:37 pm

Actually, I was kind of wishing I'd taken Blue Velvet. It looks like it will be an art house giant.

Chienfantome · Post by **Chienfantome** » July 27th, 2013, 6:29 pm

Hey, go easy on the guy, he picked Monsters U instead of Despicable Me 2 in the full year, it must be painful enough

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » July 27th, 2013, 7:53 pm

Stock Report

Ultimate FY (R5, R6, R7 - 25 players)

The Wolverine - 5, 4, 8
The To Do List - 0, 0, 0
Blue Jasmine - 0, 6, 9

Ultimate HY (R5 - 13 players; R1, R2 - 41 players)

The Wolverine - 4, 11, 17
The To Do List - 0, 4, 4
Blue Jasmine - 2, 12, 15

Box Office FY (R5, R6, R7 - 30 players)

The Wolverine - 10, 0, 16
The To Do List - 2, 1, 0
Blue Jasmine - 3, 0, 3

Box Office HY (R5 - 14 players, R1, R2 - 42 players)

The Wolverine - 6, 6, 15
The To Do List - 0, 3, 3
Blue Jasmine - 2, 5, 4

Bankrupts League, 3rd Quarter (Ult, BO)

The Wolverine - 1, 0
The To Do List - 6, 2

numbersix · Post by **numbersix** » July 27th, 2013, 9:57 pm

Shrykespeare wrote:
silversurfer19 wrote:Wish I'd taken Blue Valentine in a few leagues too.

So do I, but that was a couple years ago....

He obviously meant Betty Blue. The perv.

Geezer · Post by **Geezer** » July 28th, 2013, 12:36 am

Geezer wrote:I personally don't get it. Did anyone like the first Wolverine film? Did anyone want a sequel? The first had the best weekend of the year to itself and didn't break 200 million. I think it won't crack 60 million opening and the multiplier will be awful, giving it less than 130 million total.

So far the first half looks pretty good. Lets see how the legs are.

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » July 28th, 2013, 1:15 pm

Weekend Estimates

5 points - The Wolverine, $55M
4 points - The Conjuring, $22.1M
3 points - Despicable Me 2, $16M
2 points - Turbo, $13.3M
1 point - Grown Ups 2, $11.5M
Red 2, $9.4M
Pacific Rim, $7.5M
The Heat, $6.8M
R.I.P.D., $5.9M
Fruitvale Station, $4.7M

#15. The To Do List, $1.5M

PTA:
5 points - Blue Jasmine (over $100K)
4 points - The Wolverine
3 points - The Conjuring
2 points - Despicable Me 2
1 point - Fruitvale Station (how about that...)

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » July 28th, 2013, 7:18 pm

No word on Blackfish, I forgot to mention that.

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » July 29th, 2013, 4:07 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Wolverine, $53.1M
4 points - The Conjuring, $22.2M
3 points - Despicable Me 2, $16.4M
2 points - Turbo, $13.7M
1 point - Grown Ups 2, $11.6M
Red 2, $9.3M
Pacific Rim, $7.7M
The Heat, $6.9M
R.I.P.D., $6.1M
Fruitvale Station, $4.6M

PTA:
5 points - Blue Jasmine, $102,011
4 points - The Wolverine, $13,536
3 points - Blackfish, $8,236
2 points - The Conjuring, $7,349
1 point - Despicable Me 2, $4,725

So Fruitvale Station just misses PTA on its wide release. Damn, I wish I'd put Blackfish on some slates.

Chienfantome · Post by **Chienfantome** » July 29th, 2013, 5:37 pm

I wish it too...

numbersix · Post by **numbersix** » July 29th, 2013, 6:08 pm

And I wish I picked up Blue Jasmine in all my slates. Don't think it's on any!

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