SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/17, 7/19/13

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

The Conjuring, $17.0M
Despicable Me 2, $7.5M
Turbo, $6.5M
Grown Ups 2, $6.4M
Red 2, $6.3M
RIPD, $4.8M
Pacific Rim, $4.7M
The Heat, $2.8M
Monsters University, $1.5M
The Lone Ranger, $1.3M



Weekend Projections:

The Conjuring, $40M
Despicable Me 2, $24.4M
Turbo, $21M ($30M 5-day)
Grown Ups 2, $19.5M
Red 2, $18M
Pacific Rim, $15.3M
RIPD, $12.2M
The Heat, $9.3M
World War Z, $5.1M
Monsters University, $5M
The Lone Ranger, $4.1M

Note: The Way Way Back is estimated to earn about $2.1M in 304 theaters, or a PTA of about $7K. That would still put it ahead of all of the wide-release films (except the Conjuring, which is looking at a PTA about $13,700), so more PTA points are almost assured. Where it finishes will depend, of course, on the performances of Fruitvale Station, Only God Forgives, and Blackfish.

ETA: Fruitvale Station had a PTA of $6,765 on Friday, so it looks like it will beat The Conjuring for #1 (depending on how OGF and Blackfish do).

[transformers2]

That drop for Pacific Rim is absolutely horrible, glad to see The Conjuring open so strong. If it holds well, it will end up being a brilliant pick-up for the full-year draft.

[numbersix]

MCN's early figures has Only God Forgives earning 120K from 75 (!) theatres for a daily average of 1600. Not good, as that will give a weekend PTa of about 5K. Not enough to be in the Top 5, probably. Blackfish, however, had a Friday PTA of over 5K and so will make about 15K for the weekend. Enough to get 5 PTA points. I actually thought it might do well but forgot it was out this weekend. Dang.

[Shrykespeare]

MCN's early figures has Only God Forgives earning 120K from 75 (!) theatres for a daily average of 1600. Not good, as that will give a weekend PTa of about 5K. Not enough to be in the Top 5, probably. Blackfish, however, had a Friday PTA of over 5K and so will make about 15K for the weekend. Enough to get 5 PTA points. I actually thought it might do well but forgot it was out this weekend. Dang.

Five points for Blackfish? Damn. After all my failures in the last few months, I was gun-shy about putting a documentary about a killer whale on my slates. Thank God I put Fruitvale Station on at least a few of them.

[Chienfantome]

Fruitvale Station should still finish ahead of Blackfish and get the 5 points.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates


Top 10:
5 points - The Conjuring, $41.5M
4 points - Despicable Me 2, $25.1M
3 points - Turbo, $21.5M ($31.2M 5-day)
2 points - Grown Ups 2, $20.0M
1 point - Red 2, $18.5M
Pacific Rim, $16.0M
R.I.P.D., $12.8M
The Heat, $9.3M
World War Z, $5.2M
Monsters University, $5.0M

PTA:
5 points - Frutivale Station
4 points - Blackfish
3 points - The Conjuring
2 points - The Way, Way Back
1 points - Despicable Me 2

According to the-numbers.com, Blackfish's PTA is over $15K, just ahead of The Conjuring's $14K.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Conjuring, $41.9M
4 points - Despicable Me 2, $24.9M
3 points - Turbo, $21.3M ($31.0M 5-day)
2 points - Grown Ups 2, $19.9M
1 point - Red 2, $18.0M
Pacific Rim, $16.0M
R.I.P.D., $12.7M
The Heat, $9.3M
World War Z, $5.2M
Monsters University, $5.1M

PTA:
5 points - Fruitvale Station, $21,750
4 points - Blackfish, $15,192
3 points - The Conjuring, $14,418
2 points - The Way Way Back, $7,239
1 point - Despicable Me 2, $6,520

And again, The Hunt misses PTA points by inches. The Box Office gods are cock-teasing me now.

[Chienfantome]

Fruitvale Station definitely was a great investment. And Pacific Rim is sinking down too fast unfortunately.