SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/12

[Wrestler]

Well the fanboys seem to love Pacific Rim hopefully enough other people go see it so that it isn't super front loaded.

3.6m in thursday night shows for pacific rim. thats the same as WWZ made before opening to 66m don't expect PR to go that high though.
A surprising 2.3m in thursday night shows for Grown Ups 2.

I love how right now Deadlines first two stories are RealD shares drop due to low 3D attendance and right under that: Pacific Rim has 52% 3D share Highest in a while.

[empire13]

Damn! Looks like my gamble on Pacific Rim failed. Congrats to those who were able to stay away from it. It should still get to $100 million (barely), and it does have an 8.0 IMDB rating, so there's some upside. But, unless it has an incredible hold, it's only going to get 3 Top 5 points, and If I'm lucky, 1 PTA point. Not quite what you want out of a movie that cost $22/$23. Gonna have to play make-up the rest of the way with a limited number of dollars to spend. That's how the cookie crumbles sometimes.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Grown Ups 2, $16.3M
Pacific Rim, $14.6M
Despicable Me 2, $13.4M
The Heat, $4.2M
The Lone Ranger, $3.7M
Monsters University, $3.3M
World War Z, $2.8M
White House Down, $1.8M
Kevin Hart, $1.6M
Man of Steel, $1.3M


Weekend Projections:

Grown Ups 2, $44.5M
Despicable Me 2, $44M
Pacific Rim, $36.5M
The Heat, $13.5M
Monsters University, $11.2M
The Lone Ranger, $11.1M
World War Z, $9.3M
White House Down, $6M
Kevin Hart, $5M
Man of Steel, $4.5M


PTA-wise, Grown Ups 2 is leading the way among the big boys, just ahead of Pacific Rim, which, in turn, is just ahead of Despicable Me 2. All three will be over $10K. I'm hoping the other two spots in the Top 5 will be The Hunt and Fruitvale Station, though The Way Way Back could repeat as well.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates:

Top 10:
5 points - Despicable Me 2, $44.8M
4 points - Grown Ups 2, $42.5M
3 points - Pacific Rim, $38.3M
2 points - The Heat, $14.0M
1 point - The Lone Ranger, $11.1M
Monsters University, $10.6M
World War Z, $9.4M
White House Down, $6.2M
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain, $5.0M
Man of Steel, $4.8M

PTA:
5 points - Fruitvale Station ($53K)
4 points - The Way, Way Back ($14K)
3 points - Grown Ups 2 ($12K)
2 points - Crystal Fairy ($12K)
1 point - Pacific Rim ($11K)

Crystal Fairy is something of a surprise. Keep in mind, though, The Hunt and V/H/S 2 have not reported yet. God help me, if The Hunt comes up goose egg, I am going to cry...

[numbersix]

Get that hanky ready, dude, because it looks like the Hunt's weekend PTA will be about 10K. I could be wrong on that but it's not looking good form the Friday figure. What I'm most surprised about is The Way Way Back's hold.

[Chienfantome]

Great hold from The Way way back indeed. I do hope that you're wrong about those Hunt numbers, Six. Or I will cry too.

[Walleye413]

Wahoo for The Way, Way Back! Now, if it can go wide and get some Top 5 points I'm going to look like a real genius. That'd be nice as it doesn't happen very often

[Chienfantome]

So Grown Ups 2 did end up opening ahead of Pacific Rim. We did expect it, but it still leaves a bitter taste...

[Shrykespeare]

Pieta, A Hijacking, The Hunt... Yikes, I really can't pick PTA winners this year.


Top 10:
5 points - Despicable Me 2, $43.9M
4 points - Grown Ups 2, $41.5M
3 points - Pacific Rim, $37.3M
2 points - The Heat, $14.0M
1 point - The Lone Ranger, $11.5M
Monsters University, $10.6M
White House Down, $6.2M
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain, $4.8M
Man of Steel, $4.7M
This is the End, $2.9M


PTA:
5 points - Fruitvale Station, $55,184
4 points - The Way, Way Back, $14,201
3 points - Crystal Fairy, $12,526
2 points - Grown Ups 2, $11,890
1 point - Pacific Rim, $10,965

Still no word on The Hunt or VHS2. I'm not hopeful.


ETA: The Hunt finished with a 10,761 PTA, good enough for SEVENTH. Wow. And V/H/S/ 2 made about $10K in 12 theaters.

[Chienfantome]

Well I think it's timeto stop grabbing foreign films with great pedigré and reviews, it seems US cinephiles are not interested in them anymore. Damn.

[numbersix]

The person in Magnolia I spoke to was saying that it's more a case that these smaller distributors are simply putting less emphasis on theatrical releases in terms of marketing, so the results are weaker BO return. The focus is far more on VOD.

[Chienfantome]

And that's a shame !

[Shrykespeare]

The person in Magnolia I spoke to was saying that it's more a case that these smaller distributors are simply putting less emphasis on theatrical releases in terms of marketing, so the results are weaker BO return. The focus is far more on VOD.

Wow, really? That impacts the game BIG TIME.

[bestfilm]

I think it's important to notice that Pieta and The Hunt have been released in the US months after their releases in other countries... I saw Pieta last September just after Venice festival and Italy is not usually a champion for being first in releasing films... The Hunt has been on the internet for three or four months now, so I decided to put it in bankrupts, despite the terrific rating.

[Chienfantome]

Interesting, bestfilm. ALthough I'm not sure the film buffs who are the target audience for films such as Pieta and The Hunt are the ones who would dowlnload it. Or maybe that's just the film theater maniac I am speaking here.