SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/28/13

[Shrykespeare]

As expected, Monsters University opened to huge numbers, bringing in an amazing $82M and adding yet another feather to Pixar’s enormous cap. What was not quite as expected was for Brad Pitt’s zombie-apocalypse vehicle World War Z to nearly keep pace, soaring to $66M of its own, well ahead of Man of Steel’s second weekend. The Superman epic, though it passed $200M in only ten days, still took nearly a 65% hit in its sophomore weekend. On the PTA front, Unfinished Song was the only indie film to make a dent, though it still finished well behind both Monsters U. and WWZ.

We close out the month of June this week, and we do so with five new films, including two wide-release films that, while very different in genre, carry identical price tags, are being given nearly identical release platforms (just over 3,000 theaters) and are pretty much neck-and-neck with each other as far as prognostications go. One is an R-rated cop comedy, and the other is a rollicking action thriller, and while I don’t think either will open high enough to topple Monsters U. from the #1 spot, I think both will come fairly close.

First up is The Heat (Fox), a buddy-cop movie with a twist; namely, that the cops in the movie are women. Director Paul Feig is reuniting with one of his Bridesmaids’ cast members, Melissa McCarthy (who is hot off Identity Thief), and pairing her up with the ageless Sandra Bullock, making only her second appearance in a film since winning Best Actress for The Blind Side in 2009 (though she will also be appearing a few months down the road in Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity).

Bullock plays uptight FBI Special Agent Sarah Ashburn (no, she’s not reprising Gracie Hart from Miss Congeniality), a by-the-book agent whose demeanor has caused her fellow male agents to lose respect for her. However, when she is tasked with taking down a vicious Russian drug lord, she is paired with Boston cop Shannon Mullins (McCarthy), a gritty street-type who couldn’t be more unlike Sarah. Together, the two must overcome their vast differences and find a way to get the job done. Marlon Wayans, Michael Rapaport and Demian Bechir co-stars.

So yeah, basically it’s Miss Congenality filtered through the Aykrokd/Hanks film Dragnet and then given a license to drop unlimited F-bombs. But picking adult-comedy success or failure is always a dicey prospect… I mean, no one expected Identity Thief to succeed so well while The Hangover Part III tanked so hard. The target demographic is there for The Heat, however, and now that This is the End has almost run its course, and given that there won’t be any more comedies with this level of marketing for a long while, I think The Heat may end up being the biggest comedy of the summer.

Looking down the line, the only real competition in this genre coming in the next month is Grown Ups 2 in a couple of weeks. But you also have to consider that very, very few summer blockbusters skew more towards women, and that is why Bridesmaids did so well a few years ago. I predict The Heat will have an OW of $37M, on its way to eight Top 5 points, four PTA, a decent Rating and about $130M. For a price tag of $20 (in both leagues), those a very decent numbers indeed.




The other big movie this week is White House Down (Sony/Columbia), the latest action extravaganza from German director Roland Emmerich, whose resume includes such big-budget blockbusters as Stargate, Independence Day, Godzilla, The Day After Tomorrow, 10000 B.C. and 2012. Well, the good news this time is that a lot of things are going to be destroyed, but the world isn’t one of them. It’ll mostly just be selected bits of Washington D.C.

The film stars Channing Tatum (hot off of Magic Mike and G.I. Joe: Retaliation) as John Cale (anyone hearing The Velvet Underground in their head right now?), a D.C. police officer who desperately wants to transfer to the Secret Service; better pay, cooler suits, etc. While applying for the job, however, a paramilitary group attacks the White House, led by the ruthless Emil Stenz (Jason Clarke), and Cale must leap into action in order to save not only the President, James Sawyer (Jamie Foxx) but his daughter Emily (Joey King) from danger. Richard Jenkins, James Woods, and Maggie Gyllenhaal also co-star.

When you boil it down, the plot is almost an exact match for Olympus Has Fallen, the Gerard-Butler-led action film from earlier this year that fell just inches shy of $100M. That may cut into White House Down’s profit margin a smidge, and probably enough to give it a #3 finish this week. I foresee an OW of $32M, on its way to only four Top 5 points, maybe two PTA, a decent Rating and about $100M. Olympus’s numbers (7 T5, 2 PTA) were even more impressive, especially when you consider that it was several dollars cheaper than WHD. This will run you $18 in Ultimate ($19 in Box Office), and given the competition, I would probably stay away from this title.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s limited-release films:

I’m So Excited (Sony Classics) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This import from the shores of Spain is the latest project from noted director Pedro Almodovar (Talk to Her, Volver). It is a dark comedy that takes place on board an airplane that develops an unexplained technical failure while en route to their destination. So, rather than fret and panic about their possible demise, the pilots, cabin crew and passengers do the exact opposite… they do their utmost to make what might be their final hours as pleasant and joyous as possible. Antonio Banderas and Penelope Cruz do not play any of the main characters (I think), but they do make cameo appearances. And judging from the trailer, the film’s name was indeed taken from the 1982 Pointer Sisters hit.

I’m not sure how many theaters will be playing I’m So Excited, but it probably won’t be that many. Almodovar’s name is a very recognizable one, so a few PTA points may be in store. However, the Rating isn’t that great, so I would probably opt to not put this title on my slates.




Byzantium (IFC) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This British fantasy thriller is the latest from director Neil Jordan (Interview with the Vampire). It stars Gemma Arterton and Saoirse Ronan as Clara and Eleanor Webb, a mother and daughter who also happen to both be vampires. Surviving for two centuries on human blood and also constantly on the run, they find themselves at a run-down hotel on the English coast, where Clara can sate her thirst despite Eleanor’s misgivings. Things get even more complicated when Eleanor falls for a young man named Frank (Caleb Landry Jones), who elicits Eleanor’s incredible life story from her. Sam Riley and Jonny Lee Miller co-star.

Interview with the Vampire was a huge hit way back when, but that film had Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt to lead it. Byzantium’s cast, while talented, just doesn’t compare to that. Reviews have been rather mixed, and despite the favorable theater count (eleven), I just can’t recommend it. Too many question marks.




Copperhead (The Film Collective) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – From director Ronald F. Maxwell (Gettysburg, Gods and Generals) comes another Civil War drama, based on the 1893 novel of the same name by Harold Frederic. Set in the spring of 1862, the story centers on the citizens of a small town in Upstate New York. Though far from most of the fighting, the effects of the war were felt very strongly, as young men sought to fight for the North and yet others (known as “copperheads”) were strongly opposed to the conflict. Abner Beech (Billy Campbell) was one such person, and the firmness of his beliefs caused much consternation amongst his much more patriotic neighbors. The supporting cast includes Angus Macfadyen, Peter Fonda and Francois Arnaud (The Borgias).

Honestly, this is a tough one to call. This is one of those titles that could end up with a disastrous PTA of less than $1,000, or it could jump up and surprise like 20 Feet of Stardom – a film that absolutely no one picked in the leagues – did. If you pick this film and it produces for you, you’ll be one of few players that will have the opportunity to gloat about it when it happens.




My predictions for the weekend of June 28-30, 2013:

1. Monsters University - $46 million
2. The Heat - $37 million
3. White House Down - $32 million
4. World War Z - $30 million
5. Man of Steel - $18 million

PTA race (all leagues): The Heat, White House Down, Monsters University, Copperhead, Unfinished Song

Current RT/IMDb scores:

The Heat – N/A, N/A
White House Down – N/A, N/A
I’m So Excited – 55% (18/33 positive), 5.7 (3,034 votes)
Byzantium – 61% (22/36 positive), 6.9 (1,064 votes)
Copperhead – N/A, N/A

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we begin the second half of the summer season with six new films, all sandwiched around the Fourth of July holiday, including Despicable Me 2, the animated sequel starring Steve Carell, and The Lone Ranger, an action-western starring Johnny Depp. In limited release, we have The Way, Way Back, a comedy also starring Steve Carell, and Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain, a stand-up comedy film starring the up-and-coming comedian. Rounding out the weekend will be limited features Big Star: Nothing Can Hurt Me and Hammer of the Gods.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week (and last week):

Randy Couture (The Expendables) turned 50 on 6/22
Klaus Maria Brandauer (Out of Africa, Never Say Never Again) turned 70 on 6/22
George Michael (singer) turns 50 on 6/25
Ariana Grande (Victorious) turns 20 on 6/26

Later!

[Walleye413]

I think you may be right on Monster's U numbers, but I really think both The Heat and White House Down are going to be surprise hits. I think they've got some of the few stars right now that have legit followings who will watch them in anything. I think The Heat is a big open, with WHD, just a little behind. Wouldn't be at all surprised if this is the weekend where there are 3 movies over $50, in some order.

[numbersix]

The Heat is gonna be huge. If identity Thief can open to 36m in February, this film, with Bullock as the co-star, can double that. This will play well to an older crowd (meaning slightly different demo to This is The End) and hold for the summer due to lack of competition. White House Down should also fare well, though the advance buzz is poor and I would imagine it's fighting for the same audience as WWZ so that might affect its opening weekend. I also wonder if people will see it as Olympus Has Fallen's poor brother.

On the PTA front I think I'm So Excited will get top score (its out in 5 theatres this weekend, and another 14 the following). Even though the reviews are not so hot, it's Almodovar and it will appeal to the gay audience. Unlike Byzantium, which will play to very few, especially in 11 theatres.

1. The Heat - $52 million
2. Monsters University - $42 million
3. White House Down - $40 million
4. World War Z - $28 million
5. Man of Steel - $20 million

[numbersix]

Tracking...

The Heat: RS mid 50s, MTC 34.5m
WHD: RS low 50s, MTC 32m

[numbersix]

Wow, thinking about it I now believe Man of Steel was a mistake to pick up. Despite the fact it'll earn close to 300m it didn't fare well in T5 points (9 in total). Despicable Me should whoop its ass across its July run. At least it makes Star Trek seem like less of a disappointment.

[transformers2]

1.Monsters University $52 mil
2.The Heat $44 mil
3.White House Down $38 mil
4.World War Z $31 mil
5.Man of Steel $20 mil

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Am I alone in thinking that White House Down will beat The Heat this weekend?

1. Monsters U. - $49M
2. White House Down - $33M
3. World War Z - $28M
4. The Heat - $26M
5. Man of Steel - $21M

[Geezer]

Am I alone in thinking that White House Down will beat The Heat this weekend?

I know one person who agrees with you....

I think it is a coin flip, but with the last three comedies failing to break out, and the sheer amount of direct action competition, I think The Heat is the safer bet.

[silversurfer19]

I agree, due to the amount of advertising WHD seems to be getting it will be a lot closer than I had earlier anticipated, but both should finish in the mid-40s range I'd think, with The Heat just edging it. And it will have MUCH better legs too. I doubt WHD will get too far past $100m, while The Heat should be good for $150m.

[empire13]

Wow, thinking about it I now believe Man of Steel was a mistake to pick up. Despite the fact it'll earn close to 300m it didn't fare well in T5 points (9 in total). Despicable Me should whoop its ass across its July run. At least it makes Star Trek seem like less of a disappointment.

I think I have to second that thought, Six.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I agree, due to the amount of advertising WHD seems to be getting it will be a lot closer than I had earlier anticipated, but both should finish in the mid-40s range I'd think, with The Heat just edging it. And it will have MUCH better legs too. I doubt WHD will get too far past $100m, while The Heat should be good for $150m.

Why wouldn't WHD be able to grab $150 if it opens to $40-something? I don't think The Lone Ranger is much competition for it. It seems too silly for adults, and children will want to see Despicable Me 2.

[silversurfer19]

I just don't see it as an event film, it will have a decent opening thanks to a marketing push, but will then have a steady decline over the next month with lots of adult competition (The Heat, Pacific Rim, Grown Ups, RED 2, Wolverine, 2 Guns). I just don't see how it would get more than a 3x multiplier with such competition, it's appeal will be limited (especially after Olympus had such a similar premise) and should fizzle away fairly quickly as other more appealing movies are released. In line with most of Emmerich's recent movies, a 2.5x multiplier would give it just over $100m, which I think seems about right.

[empire13]

It wouldn't surprise me if they both (WHD and The Heat) opened over $40 million. I agree with Surfer about the multiplier for WHD. It should be fairly frontloaded. The Heat should hold very well. And, it being female driven should help its legs, especially since it's been a while since a female oriented film came out. I'd still like Monster's University to hold onto the #1 spot, though. And, I think it will. I think Shryke has it's numbers pretty close to what will actually transpire. Should be an interesting weekend.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

White House Down - 3,222
The Heat - 3,181
Byzantium - 6

Also: Redemption - 19


Estimates for next week:

Despicable Me 2 - N/A (but it's gotta be over 4,000)
The Lone Ranger - 3,700
The Way, Way Back - 19

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Am I alone in thinking that White House Down will beat The Heat this weekend?

1. Monsters U. - $49M
2. White House Down - $33M
3. World War Z - $28M
4. The Heat - $26M
5. Man of Steel - $21M

These numbers are stupid, I'm going again:

1. White House Down - $45M
2. Monsters Inc - $40M
3. The Heat - $37M
4. World War Z - $27M
5. Man Of Steel - $20M