SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/28/13

[transformers2]

I saw World War Z last night and The Heat had sold out all 5 showings last night at my local theater. I don't know the size of the theaters they where playing in, but that could potentially be a sign of The Heat's success this weekend.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Deadline isn't reporting numbers for some reason, but BoxOffice.com is providing some estimates for the openers.

The Heat - $18M Friday/ $45M ow
White House Down - $8-$10M Friday/ $27M ow

And they mention Monsters U has a sizable lead to remain #1.

[Chienfantome]

Wow, those are surprisingly low numbers for White House Down !

[Shrykespeare]

Cut and paste from BoxOffice.com:

It now looks like The Heat is headed for as much as $19 million on Friday. Fox's comedy could hit $50 million this weekend, but $47 million-$48 million seems more likely. The Heat will end up much closer than expected to Monsters University, which looks to be on pace for at least $50 million. Monsters University will obviously enjoy a healthy Saturday as more families flock to see it.

White House Down could hit $9 million on Friday. The action flick looks poised for an underwhelming $25 million.

Check back tomorrow for official studio estimates and updated weekend projections.


So the Top 5 looks like:

1. Monsters U
2. The Heat
3. World War Z
4. White House Down
5. Man of Steel

Unless WWZ drops really hard.

[JohnErle]

Deadline is reporting $40 for the Heat and $30 for WHD in third place, so there's still a lot of wiggle room in the early estimates.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Monsters University, $14.3M
The Heat, $13.6M
White House Down, $9.0M
World War Z, $8.9M
Man of Steel, $6.0M
This is the End, $2.6M
Now You See Me, $1.7M (officially over $100M on Friday)
Fast & Furious 6, $713K
Star Trek Into Darkness, $537M
Iron Man 3, $420K



Weekend Projections:

Monsters University, $47.6M
The Heat, $36.7M
World War Z, $29.2M
White House Down, $24.7M
Man of Steel, $20.3M

[Chienfantome]

In the end, both The Heat and White House Down disappoint, one just a bit, and the other a lot. And Now You See Me officially crosses $100M ? Wow.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates:

Top 12:
5 points - Monsters University, $46.2M
4 points - The Heat, $40.0M
3 points - World War Z, $29.8M
2 points - White House Down, $25.7M
1 point - Man of Steel, $20.8M
This is the End, $8.7M
Now You See Me, $5.5M
Fast & Furious 6, $2.4M
Star Trek Into Darkness, $2.0M
The Internship, $1.4M
Iron Man 3, $1.4M
The Purge, $1.2M

PTA:
5 points - I'm So Excited
4 points - The Heat
3 points - Monsters University
2 points - World War Z
1 point - White House Down

Byzantium wasn't even close. No word on Copperhead, though I don't expect that to be close either.

[empire13]

White House Down was far more comedic than expected. Sony should have been playing up this fact in an effort to separate it from Olympus Has Fallen, even though that tactic would have put it in direct competition for some of The Heat's audience. They only started to emphasize it in the final few days leading up to its release. I think the benefits would have well outweighed the drawbacks when you take into consideration the fact that most people are/were viewing it as a repeat of Olympus.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 12:
5 points - Monsters University, $45.6M
4 points - The Heat, $39.1M
3 points - World War Z, $29.8M
2 points - White House Down, $24.9M
1 point - Man of Steel, $20.7M
This is the End, $8.7M
Now You See Me, $5.6M
Fast & Furious 6, $2.4M
Star Trek Into Darkness, $2.1M
The Internship, $1.4M
Iron Man 3, $1.4M
The Purge, $1.2M

PTA:
5 points - I'm So Excited, $19,466
4 points - The Heat, $12,296
3 points - Monsters University, $11,391
2 points - World War Z, $8,255
1 point - White House Down, $7,713
(Byzantium, $2,774)
(Copperhead, $972)

[Chienfantome]

I'm officially disappointed by both The Heat and White House Down. And amazed that World War Z already banked $123M.

[numbersix]

While The Heat didn't make as much as expected it's still the highest opening film with either Sandra Bullock or Melissa McCarthy in the lead role. And it should hold well, meaning $120m is well within reach and could still hit $150m