SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/21

[Shrykespeare]

Man of Steel soared to the upper stratosphere this past weekend, bringing in a whopping $113M ($125M when you include Thursday midnight showings), setting not only the record for the highest ever OW for June (beating out Toy Story 3, which went on to over $400M), but the highest opening ever for a franchise reboot (beating out The Amazing Spider-Man). Coming in a very distant second was the star-studded apocalyptic comedy This is the End, which pulled in over $32M in its first five days. On the PTA front, Sofia Coppola’s The Bling Ring actually eclipsed Man of Steel, if you can believe it.

So even though Steel couldn’t beat Iron (Man 3), it set a great pace that will likely end up having the film finish well over $300M, thus guaranteeing at least two sequels and a healthy fan-base for the Superman franchise. But regardless, a 55-60% drop is inevitable, and with Pixar’s latest film, Monsters University (Buena Vista) opening this weekend, we can probably expect Man of Steel to drop to #2.

I won’t go into Pixar’s long and exceptional history, because you should all know it by now. Ever since their inception, this studio has set the benchmark for outstanding achievement in the field of animated movies, churning out hit after hit and taking home nearly every Oscar for Best Animated Film in the process. Even their less-than-stellar outings (including their last two, Cars 2 and Brave) were able to crack $200M. And Monsters U., their fourteenth full-length feature film, will undoubtedly not end that streak.

Let’s flash back to 2001: it was about this time that the Pixar machine really started to get rolling. Coming off the huge success of Toy Story 2, Pixar fielded a film about, well, monsters. You know, scary-looking creatures that frighten children in their bedrooms at night. Turns out, however, most of them aren’t such bad guys, they’re just doing a job like most adults. The reason for scaring children? Simple: the screams of children provide an energy source for their society. However, after an adventure with a very young girl named Boo, the main characters James “Sulley” Sullivan (John Goodman) and his friend and co-worker Mike Wazowski (Billy Crystal) discover that children’s laughter is an even more potent energy source, and a lot more fun to elicit as well.

Of course, to get that job, Sulley and Mike had to learn the ropes, and Monsters University shows us just how they did that. We learn how they first met, as college roommates and frat brothers (which is funny, since both actors are in their sixties now), and they couldn’t be more different; Sulley is brawny, playful and not really into the whole “studying thing”, while Mike is a brainiac who is determined to study his way to the top. Initially rivals, the two form a friendship that would endure well into adulthood.

Unfortunately, that’s about the sum total of the plot that I’ve been able to discern. I’m sure they will face the usual college hijinks and perhaps a crisis or three, but to find out about that, I’ll just have to see the movie. The supporting voice cast includes such notable names as Steve Buscemi, Helen Mirren, Alfred Molina, John Krasinski, Charlie Day, Dave Foley, Bonnie Hunt, Nathan Fillion, Aubrey Plaza and, of course, John Ratzenberger, keeping his 1.000 Pixar batting average intact.

In 2001, the original Monsters Inc. made a very respectable $255M, which would probably by well over $300M if you adjusted for inflation. And while Pixar’s name alone carries a lot of weight, and while I’m sure Monsters University will be funny, well-written and visually stunning, this is not a sequel (or prequel, rather) that anyone particularly wanted or needed (seriously, when is that damn Incredibles sequel coming??), and while $200M is certainly likely, I would say that its chances of beating its predecessor are slim.

Monsters University, which will be opening on Friday in 3,800 locations (including many 3D theaters), carries a price tag of $32 in the June Ultimate leagues and $34 in Box Office. I fully expect that it will follow the usual Pixar pattern of opening strongly and then suffering minute drops over the next two weeks (all bets will be off when Despicable Me 2 opens on July 3). I envision an OW of $70M, on its way to ten Top 5 points, six PTA, a very respectable Rating and $230M overall. Those are certainly not bad numbers… in fact, they are very good, and if you passed on Man of Steel you should definitely grab it. But I believe Despicable Me 2 will do even better, so it’s up to you determine which option is the most cost-effective.




Zombie movies have been around for decades. Some of them have become horror classics, such as the George A. Romero films of the 70’s. Some have done quite well at the box office, including recent films like Zombieland ($75M) and this year’s Warm Bodies ($66M). However, there probably hasn’t been a zombie film – like, EVER – with the estimated budget of World War Z (Paramount), which is somewhere in the neighborhood of $175M. Then again, very few zombie flicks have starred someone as widely popular as Brad Pitt, either.

Based on the novel of the same name by Max Brooks, World War Z develops like so many zombie flicks do: a global pandemic turns the majority of humanity into zombies, and the infection spreads across the plane so fast that the uninfected have to scramble to save not only themselves but any vestige of our civilization. Pitt plays Gerry Lane, a former U.N. investigator who is brought out of retirement in order to investigate the pandemic, and hopefully find a cure before humanity becomes extinct. Co-starring are Mireille Enos (The Killing), David Morse and James Badge Dale, and Matthew Fox also has a small role.

I have no doubt that World War Z will make its money back when you factor in international box office, but here in the U.S., it will have a nearly impossible time. I think it will open at about $42M, which on most weekends would be good enough for #1 or #2, but behind Monsters University and Man of Steel, it will only come in at #3. It will likely drop to #5 next week after The Heat and White House Down debut, which means only four Top 5 points and perhaps three PTA points, along with a very good Rating and $111M. Those numbers would certainly favor taking it in Box Office ($19) more than in Ultimate ($18).




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s limited-release films:

Unfinished Song (Weinstein Co.) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This British comedy-drama stars the irascible Terence Stamp as Arthur, a sour curmudgeon content to live out his years sticking to his uneventful daily routine and scowling at everyone. However, when his beloved wife Marion (Vanessa Redgrave) introduces him to a local seniors’ singing group, led by the youthful, spirited and charming Elizabeth (Gemma Arterton), Arthur discovers a love of music that he thought he’d lost decades earlier, and slowly but surely, the ice around his heart begins to melt.

British comedies have been known to wrangle a few PTA points, but very few of them hit the mother lode. Unlike January’s Quartet, Unfinished Song has the summer blockbusters as competition, and even though it’s cheaply priced and showing in an optimum number of locations (two), I wouldn’t think it could get much more than three or four PTA points. However, I can’t see it being totally shut out either, so if you feel the vibe, go for it.




A Hijacking (Magnolia) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This Danish drama from director Tobias Lindstrom, on the other hand, is a much more intriguing prospect. I don’t know if the story is based on true events like the upcoming and similarly-themed Captain Phillips is, but even so, this is a film that is worthy of your attention… and your slates. The story is simple enough: a Danish cargo ship is hijacked by Somali pirates, who give the CEO of the shipping company an ultimatum: fork over a boatload of cash or the hostages will be executed. What unfolds is a psychological drama between the CEO (Soren Malling) and the pirates.

Dramas from Denmark seem to be coming as frequently as ones from their Scandinavian neighbors, Sweden and Norway. One only has to look at the success of April’s Kon-Tiki (11 PTA points) to see the trend. Now, A Hijacking may not have been nominated for an Oscar, but it has made the rounds at a lot of film festivals (though only one, as far as I can tell, on U.S. soil). It is being released into six theaters starting Friday, and if a selling point is how much critical acclaim a film has prior to release, take note that all thirty-one of the critics that have reviewed this film on RT have like it. If that plus the current Rating doesn’t sell this film for you, then I don’t know what will. Next week’s crop of indie films looks comparatively weak, so I wouldn’t surprise if A Hijacking ventured into double digits.




The Attack (Cohen Media Group) ($2 Ult, $1 BO) – This Israeli drama, directed by Ziad Doueiri (who actually worked as a cameraman on several of QT’s early projects, including Reservoir Dogs and Pulp Fiction), is based upon the novel of the same name by Algerian author Yasmina Khadra. The story centers on a Palestinian surgeon named Amin Jaafari (Ali Suliman), who lives a comfortable life in Tel Aviv, Israel, when tragedy turns his life inside out. A suicide bombing in a nearby restaurant leaves nineteen dead, including many children… and his wife Sihem (Reymonde Amsellem), who also was among the dead, was apparently the one responsible. His world shattered, Amin must abandon the safety of his adopted homeland and venture into Palestine in pursuit of the truth, into places that he never thought he would go.

Any other week, I might recommend this film, but there’s just too much else going on. Critics have liked it (though much fewer reviews have been posted than A Hijacking) and though Israeli films seldomly cross the pond to the U.S., the subject may be a little too harrowing for U.S. audiences. If, on the other hand, you are in need of an eighth film to fill out your roster and only have $2 left to spend, The Attack is, by far, your best option of the season.




My predictions for the weekend of June 21-23, 2013:

1. Monsters University - $70 million
2. Man of Steel - $53 million
3. World War Z - $42 million
4. This is the End - $11 million
5. Now You See Me - $6 million

PTA race (all leagues): A Hijacking, Monsters University, Man of Steel, Unfinished Song, The Attack

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Monsters University – 87% (13/16 positive), 7.7 (1,295 votes)
World War Z – 76% (19/25 positive), 7.3 (2,821 votes)
Unfinished Song – 69% (22/32 positive), 6.9 (726 votes)
A Hijacking – 100% (31/31 positive), 7.0 (1,733 votes)
The Attack – 100% (4/4 positive), 6.5 (269 votes)


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we finish up the month of June with five more films, including two very different potential blockbusters. We have The Heat, a profanity-laced police comedy starring Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy, as well as White House Down, the second “terrorists take over the White House” film to hit theaters this year, and it stars Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx. In limited release, we have I’m So Excited, Byzantium, and Copperhead.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Newt Gingrich (politician/author) turns 70 on 6/17
Barry Manilow (singer) turns 70 on 6/17
Greg Kinnear (Little Miss Sunshine, As Good as It Gets) turns 50 on 6/17
Danny Aiello (The Professional, Do the Right Thing) turns 80 on 6/20
Juliette Lewis (Natural Born Killers, From Dusk Till Dawn) turns 40 on 6/21
Cyndi Lauper (singer) turns 60 on 6/22
Carson Daly (The Voice host) turns 40 on 6/22

Later!

[numbersix]

Monsters Uni should open quite well indeed. I feel there's a mounting disappointment in Pixar, but it's hard to see how much that will impact BO, especially as this is the only kiddie film of June. I do think Despicable Me will kill its legs, though. I think it'll just pass the $200m mark.

I'm going to go a little lower than you, Shryke, on World War Z. Walking Dead may prove that zombies are now in the mainstream, but the success of Superman plus the general discontent aimed at the disparity between the film and the popular novel, may make it only a modest hit. The only thing that's saving it from disaster is positive buzz from press.

As for PTA, it's a risk to say A Hijacking will win the weekend, considering it has no real stars (it's from the writer of The Hunt, which isn't even out in the US) or festival awards. It's a very good film but I don't see this doing that well. I think it'll make 3 PTA points. Not sure about Unfinished Song, but it is being aimed at the older audience which, considering the main competition is a kid film and a zombie disaster film, is a good idea.

1. Monsters University - $72 million
2. Man of Steel - $55 million
3. World War Z - $38 million
4. This is the End - $12 million
5. Now You See Me - $6 million

[Chienfantome]

World War Z was showed this weekend in Paris, a couple of my film geeks aquaintances saw it and told me it's awful. I'm more and more wary of it.

[transformers2]

1.Monsters University $78 mil
2.Man of Steel $59 mil
3.World War Z $43 mil
4.This is the End $14 mil
5.Now You See Me $6 mil

[numbersix]

Tracking

Monsters Uni: RS low 80s MTC81m
World War Z: RS low 30s MTC 58m

So agreement on Monsters, less so with the zombies.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Hopefully, the massive disappointment of Epic will help Monsters U. although the premise alone doesn't seem like enough to get an audience outside of families. It seems the more childish Pixar films end up right around $200M, while the ones adults are into go much higher. 65/210 seems like a good guess to me.

WWZ has just about everything going against it, no matter how many journalists Paramount pays off to tweet about it. Man of Steel will cut heavily into it, as will White House Down next week. 35/100 and Marc Foster never gets trusted again with a blockbuster tentpole.

1. Man of Steel - $68M
2. Monsters University - $65M
3. World War Z - $35M
4. This Is The End - $14M
5. Now You See Me - $5M

[Geezer]

Banks, that Man of Steel number makes me wonder how much crack you've been smoking.... A 100 + opener and a 41% drop? A drop that low for a movie that opened that high has only happened twice in the history of film, the original Spider-Man and Shrek 2. Not a chance. There's no way it beats Monsters University. Best case scenario for MOS is an Iron Man 1 type 48% drop, which would mean INCREDIBLE word of mouth, and that would leave it at just over 60 million.

Monsters Uni - 75 mil
Man Of Steel - 50 million
World War Z - 37 million
This Is The End - 14 million

[Shrykespeare]

Epic disappointed, but I wouldn't call it "massive". It will crack $100M, and given the plot of the film and the release date, were any of us really expecting more? I mean, an ecologically-themed cartoon with no previous history and plenty of blockbusters around it. I never saw a big hit in this.

Now, Rise of the Guardians... that was a massive disappointment.

[transformers2]

Epic disappointed, but I wouldn't call it "massive". It will crack $100M, and given the plot of the film and the release date, were any of us really expecting more? I mean, an ecologically-themed cartoon with no previous history and plenty of blockbusters around it. I never saw a big hit in this.

Now, Rise of the Guardians... that was a massive disappointment.

I agree with all of this. Honestly, Epic exceeded my expectations for it. I figured it would get completely buried by Star Trek, FF6 and The Hangover, but it held its own and has done relatively well.

[JohnErle]

Epic disappointed, but I wouldn't call it "massive". It will crack $100M, and given the plot of the film and the release date, were any of us really expecting more? I mean, an ecologically-themed cartoon with no previous history and plenty of blockbusters around it. I never saw a big hit in this.

Now, Rise of the Guardians... that was a massive disappointment.

I agree with all of this. Honestly, Epic exceeded my expectations for it. I figured it would get completely buried by Star Trek, FF6 and The Hangover, but it held its own and has done relatively well.

I was expecting a little better, like $125-$150, so it's a little disappointing, but I also knew there was no way the first animated film of the summer would flop completely with no other animation on the market for more than a month, so in that sense it delivered the safe $100 million I wanted. And with the way animated films keep pulling in a million here and a million there long after older-skewing films have dropped out of sight, it still should reach $110-$115. Not bad.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Banks, that Man of Steel number makes me wonder how much crack you've been smoking.... A 100 + opener and a 41% drop? A drop that low for a movie that opened that high has only happened twice in the history of film, the original Spider-Man and Shrek 2. Not a chance. There's no way it beats Monsters University. Best case scenario for MOS is an Iron Man 1 type 48% drop, which would mean INCREDIBLE word of mouth, and that would leave it at just over 60 million.

Well in my defense, I thought the weekend numbers for Man of Steel were going to include Thursday late nights and the Wal-Mart $12M, which would've been like $128M and a drop to 68M would be right around 50%.

But yeah, with $113M OW, something in the lower 50s seems about right for MoS second weekend.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Epic disappointed, but I wouldn't call it "massive". It will crack $100M, and given the plot of the film and the release date, were any of us really expecting more? I mean, an ecologically-themed cartoon with no previous history and plenty of blockbusters around it. I never saw a big hit in this.

Now, Rise of the Guardians... that was a massive disappointment.

To be the first animated movie in 3 months and opening in a prime Memorial Day weekend, just notching a bit above $100M is a serious let-down. Maybe not massive in the After Earth sense, but still...it'll end up being Blue Sky's lowest grossing original film - which is weird because it's the first to open in the summer.

Rise of The Guardians is right around the same situation as Epic. It too had to face many blockbusters (Skyfall, Twilight, Lincoln, Ralph, Pi), it had no pre-sold audience, and was an animated action movie with poorly rendered characters. Epic will only make about $15M more, so if one is massive...it seems they both would have to be.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Monsters University - 4,004
World War Z - 3,607
Unfinished Song - 2

The Bling Ring - 650


Estimates for next week:

The Heat - 3,000+
White House Down - "Wide"
Byzantium - 11

[BrocksterDuex]

I don't like Man of Steels trend this week...it's been dropping pretty hard from day to day and doesn't seem to be holding as well as comparable movies. I hope this doesn't mean a huge drop off this weekend!

[silversurfer19]

Do you think? Compare Iron Man 3's opening week:

Man Of Steel: $12.5m/ 11.5m/ 9.0m/ 7.0m = $40m Mon-Thurs
Iron Man 3: $11.2m/11.2m/ 8.1m/ 7.6m = $38.1m Mon-Thurs

Not saying it will beat IM3's second weekend of $72m, but it's not nearly as bad as you are suggesting.