SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/12, 6/14/13

[Shrykespeare]

To the surprise of many, The Purge exceeded expectations and pulled in a whopping $36M this past weekend, taking the crown by nearly a 2-to-1 margin over holdovers Fast & Furious 6 and Now You See Me. The weekend’s other newbie, The Internship, disappointed with only $18M and a fourth-place finish. On the PTA front, Joss Whedon’s Much Ado About Nothing cleaned up, nearly doubling the output of the second-place finisher, which was the documentary Dirty Wars.

There is probably no more famous superhero in history than Superman. No matter where you go, the image of the alien from the planet Krypton, with his blue suit, red cape and bright red “S” emblazoned on his chest, he is a recognized figure, and has been since his comic-book debut 65 years ago. The character has been adapted to both the small screen (starting with The Adventures of Superman in the 1950’s, along with The Adventures of Lois & Clark and Smallville) and the big screen (most notably the Superman films of the late-70’s and early 80’s starring Christopher Reeve) many times.

In 2006, Bryan Singer attempted to do for Superman what Christopher Nolan had done the year before with Batman… to start a brand new franchise featuring the immortal comic-book hero. However, though Superman Returns was a critical success (boasting a 76% score on RT), it only made $200M at the box office (and less than $400M globally), which barely covered its estimated $270M budget. A sequel was planned but it never materialized, and the film – which starred Brandon Routh in the title role and Kevin Spacey as his human arch-nemesis Lex Luthor – is still viewed as a major disappointment.

Seven years later, Man of Steel (Warner Bros.) hits the big screen, with notable director Zach Snyder at the helm. Snyder, if you remember, scored a major hit in 2006 with 300, but followed that up with the underappreciated Watchmen and the uber-disastrous Sucker Punch. However, this incarnation was co-written by Nolan himself (who also co-produced) and David S. Goyer, the duo that turned the Dark Knight trilogy into the major success story that it was. So on paper, Man of Steel already has a lot more going for it.

And then there’s the cast, which includes a bevy of Oscar-caliber talent, including Russell Crowe, Kevin Costner, Amy Adams, Diane Lane, Michael Shannon, and Laurence Fishburne. If there is one quality that Man of Steel has in common with Superman Returns, it’s that the actor playing Superman is a relative unknown. Yes, Henry Cavill has made a few films previously, including Stardust and Immortals, not to mention a regular stint on the Showtime series The Tudors, but he’s hardly a household name… though that may change, one would hope. (Aside: what happened to Brandon Routh? I haven’t a clue.)

We all know the story: the infant Kal-El is transported to Earth from the doomed planet of Krypton by his father Jor-El (Crowe), where he is found and adopted by a rural couple named Jonathan and Martha Kent (Costner, Lane), who give him the name Clark. As he grows to maturity and begins to understand his purpose, he moves to New York City to become a reporter for the Daily Planet newspaper, where he becomes smitten with fellow reporter Lois Lane (Adams). But all of his amazing super-powers, which include invulnerability, flight and unimaginable strength, are put to the test when the renegade General Zod (Shannon) attempts to take command of Earth.

Really, that’s all you need to start off what will potentially be the next great superhero franchise, now that Batman is finished for now and the next Avengers film is a few years away. Man of Steel is extremely well placed, with only a handful of films coming out in the next few weeks (and none in the same genre), and it has also been marketed very well. I look for Man of Steel to not only have the second-highest OW of the entire summer, but the second-highest overall output (behind Iron Man 3 in both categories).

Because of its major potential, Man of Steel is one of the two most expensive films in the June-August season, with a price tag of $36 in Ultimate and $38 in Box Office. It should debut well north of $100M in its first three days, finishing with eleven Top 5 points, seven or eight PTA points, a superb Rating and about $320M. Those are damn fine numbers, and I think even Despicable Me 2 will have a hard time beating them.




Well, the Mayan calendar may say we’re in uncharted territory, but that hasn’t stopped the slew of end-of-the-world films being produced by Hollywood. Though the ultimate cataclysm hasn’t often been mined for its comedic potential (at least not successfully, see Seeking a Friend for the End of the World), that may change with This is the End (Sony/Columbia), which features some of the biggest names in cinematic comedy working today.

The film centers on six friends (James Franco, Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, Craig Robinson, Danny McBride, Jay Baruchel, who basically play fictionalized versions of themselves, even using their own real names), who get together for a big house party at Franco’s house in L.A. when, inconveniently, the world decides it’s had enough (bummer). The cause? You name it, this film has it: earthquakes, demons, aliens, and an ax-wielding Emma Watson. Other celebs making appearances include Michael Cera, Jason Segel, Paul Rudd, Kevin Hart, Rihanna, Aziz Ansari, Christopher Mintz-Plasse (McLovin!) and the Backstreet Boys. Oh, come on, who’d you expect to be playing the Apocalypse?

This is the End (which opens on Wednesday) is, understandably, rated R for extreme language and raunchy humor. I’m really not sure how well it will do, since I don’t think I have anything to compare it to. So I’ll toe the line and predict mild but not overwhelming success, to the tune of a $23M OW ($40M 5-day) on its way to six Top 5 points, two PTA, a Rating around 7.0 and $83M overall. Those aren’t bad numbers for its price ($15 Ult, $16 BO), but you could spent the same amount on any number of August films that have even better potential.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s limited-release films (two of which were added just recently):

The Bling Ring (A24) ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – This crime drama (based on actual events) is the latest directorial outing for Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation). The film stars Emma Watson (playing a bad girl in not one but two movies this week), Leslie Mann and Taissa Farmiga (Vera’s sister). Emma plays Nicki, the leader of a group of fame-obsessed teenagers who used the Internet to track down celebrities in order to rob their homes. Actual victims of this group included Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Megan Fox and Orlando Bloom.

The Bling Ring would seem to have a lot in common with March’s Spring Breakers, from the premise (bad girls) to having a notable director and a pretty good cast. And Spring Breakers, if you recall, didn’t do too badly (5 PTA, $15M). The Bling Ring will open in five theaters this week before expanding to over 500 next week, so it could pick up a few PTA, but probably not very many, and certainly not enough to warrant taking it. It could break out and become a good BO pick, but I doubt it.




In the Fog (Strand) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This Russian drama was one of the competitors for the coveted Palme d’Or at last year’s Cannes Film Festival. The film centers on a Belarussian named Sushenya, who is arrested for sabotage in 1942 by the Nazis but later released. Even though he was innocent, his own people now believe him to be a collaborator, and when he is pursued, he finds that he must seek sanctuary with his people’s enemies. Wow, talk about a tangled web…

In the Fog has been praised by critics (though, ironically, it was panned by critics in Russia), and though I’m not sure how many theaters will be showcasing it, it probably isn’t that many. It could pick up a few PTA points, but for $3, you’re better off taking something else that has the potential for multiple weeks on the PTA chart. I’m not sure this is it.




20 Feet from Stardom (Radius-TWC) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – As long as there have been professional singers, there have been backup singers, singers who stand in the background and make the stars and the divas sound as good as they do. But it’s a profession that can often be thankless, as the spotlight never seems to shine on them, and though most possess phenomenal voices in their own right, the fame that they covet is so tantalizingly close but yet also so far away.

Director Morgan Neville attempts to elaborate on a few of these unsung heroes, singers who have affected and improved some of the most timeless and influential music of the last century, including Darlene Love, Merry Clayton and Judith Hill (who was just on the current season of The Voice, after years of backing up Michael Jackson). Many legends are also interviewed, including Mick Jagger, Bruce Springsteen, and Sting.

I love this idea. And I wish I could recommend this documentary, because it’s a story that deserves to be told. I mean, where would so many singers be if they had been forced to do it all on their own? However, for game purposes, I just don’t see it producing big numbers.




My predictions for the weekend of June 14-16, 2013:

1. Man of Steel - $120 million
2. This is the End - $23 million ($40 million 5-day)
3. The Purge - $15 million
4. Now You See Me - $12 million
5. Fast & Furious 6 - $10 million

PTA race (all leagues): Man of Steel, Much Ado About Nothing, This is the End, In the Fog, Dirty Wars


Current RT/IMDb scores:

Man of Steel – N/A, N/A
This is the End – 88% (21/24 positive), 7.2 (1,107 votes)
The Bling Ring – 56% (15/27 positive), 6.9 (711 votes)
In the Fog – 83% (15/18 positive), 6.9 (508 votes)
20 Feet from Stardom – 75% (3/4 positive), 6.8 (95 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the long-awaited (by some) prequel to Monsters Inc. comes out, as Monsters University attempts to become the next jewel in Pixar’s mighty crown. Also on tap is World War Z, which features Brad Pitt trying to thwart a zombie apocalypse. In limited release, we have comedy/musical Unfinished Song, Danish thriller A Hijacking, and Arabic drama The Attack.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Jeanne Tripplehorn (Basic Instinct, The Firm) turns 50 on 6/10
Faith Evans (R&B singer) turns 40 on 6/10
Gene Wilder (Blazing Saddles, Young Frankenstein) turns 80 on 6/11
Malcolm McDowell (A Clockwork Orange) turns 70 on 6/13
Tim Allen (Home Improvement, Toy Story) turns 60 on 6/13
Helen Hunt (Mad About You, As Good as it Gets) turns 50 on 6/15
Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother) turns 40 on 6/15
Joan Van Ark (Knots Landing) turns 70 on 6/16

Later!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

The big daddy is here! Man of Steel should easily rule the rest of the month, $120M is a good prediction but I think it could go up to $145M.

This has been THE movie talked about since Iron Man 3 came and went. That cast, those TRAILERS.

This Is The End has started ramping up its advertising lately, and there's a ton of free screenings to generate WOM. Sony did the same thing with 21 Jump Street, which paid off wonderfully. Once word gets out how good it is (supposedly but I'll be seeing it tomorrow), people will check it out - but probably after they see Man of Steel first.

[undeadmonkey]

Superman should be huge, everyone i know thinks 'the guy who did batman made it'. So yea, warner brothers did their advertising really well.

[JohnErle]

Or it could drop 70% in its second weekend once they realize the guy behind Watchmen and Sucker Punch made it.

I wish I understood what people are seeing in those trailers that has them so jazzed. Maybe then I'd be better at this game. The visuals during the destruction of Krypton sequence are impressive, and the cast is great, but what about the story? It's just the first two Richard Donner Superman movies with a healthy dose of Batman Begins. Seen it, don't need to see it again.

[numbersix]

The question this week really is "how high can Superman fly?" There's been so much buzz about the trailer but I wonder will the taste of Superman Returns and the later episodes of Smallville ensure it pays a price. Just look at how Batman Begins suffered from the previous film. That said, there seems to be no other film this summer with the same kind of buzz. Even if the reviews are poor, Superman will have decent legs due to lack of direct competition (with only The Lone Ranger being its rival, and a poor one at that). I don't know what it will open to, but I could certainly see it being the biggest June opener of all time. I'll hazard a guess at 130m and a cume of around 350m.

I also think This is the End will do quite well. With the last 2 comedies underperforming, and with the trailers for this hitting their mark, this could be a nice little earner. It's a shame it's opening against Man of Steel, but I think this could have decent legs in the way Bad Teacher and Horrible Bosses did.

As for PTA, I think Bling Ring should nevertheless win the weekend. Coppola managed to con people into a great PTA for Somewhere (one of my least favourite films), and with Emma Watson on board it would make 20-30K for its PTA. But its lack of future PTA potential makes me wary of it. The other 2 films look like non-starters.

1. Man of Steel - $130 million
2. This is the End - $25 million ($42 million 5-day)
3. Now You See Me - $12 million
4. The Purge - $11 million
5. Fast & Furious 6 - $10 million

[Geezer]

Is White House Down not considered direct competition for Man of Steel?

[numbersix]

Is White House Down not considered direct competition for Man of Steel?

Only noticed that WHD is PG-13, but I still don't think it has the family appeal that Superman probably will. It's not 4-quadrant.

[transformers2]

1.Man of Steel $145 mil
2.This is the End $32 mil ($48 mil 5-day)
3.Now You See Me $13 mil
4.Fast and Furious 5 $12 mil
5.The Purge $11 mil (yes I think The Purge will drop this hard, the reception has been horrible and it will get buried by Man of Steel and This is the End)

[Wrestler]

Or it could drop 70% in its second weekend once they realize the guy behind Watchmen and Sucker Punch made it.

I wish I understood what people are seeing in those trailers that has them so jazzed. Maybe then I'd be better at this game. The visuals during the destruction of Krypton sequence are impressive, and the cast is great, but what about the story? It's just the first two Richard Donner Superman movies with a healthy dose of Batman Begins. Seen it, don't need to see it again.

Ya John it certainly is possible it tanks in the same sense that anything is possible, like hell freezing over. Zack Snyder was the perfect choice for this movie. There is one thing he is good at and one thing only: making visually striking movies. David S Goyer and Christopher Nolan were there for the script and making sure the story was as solid as it needs to be and Snyder takes care of the action. The main story is basically superman II with zod holding the planet hostage in order to get to Supes but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Thanks to the success of SM2 Zod is almost as well know as lex luthor and is an easier sell for snyder. Zod is a physical all fighting opponent which Snyder excels at. He isn't ready as a film maker to take on the mind games and covertness that is lex luthor. And frankly they make for a less exciting movie if not done exactly right, and after the bomb that was Returns audiences know that.

This movie will be adored by critics and fans and the box office will show that love. It should have no problem passing Return's total take in its first 10 days.

[JohnErle]

Or it could drop 70% in its second weekend once they realize the guy behind Watchmen and Sucker Punch made it.

I wish I understood what people are seeing in those trailers that has them so jazzed. Maybe then I'd be better at this game. The visuals during the destruction of Krypton sequence are impressive, and the cast is great, but what about the story? It's just the first two Richard Donner Superman movies with a healthy dose of Batman Begins. Seen it, don't need to see it again.

Ya John it certainly is possible it tanks in the same sense that anything is possible, like hell freezing over. Zack Snyder was the perfect choice for this movie. There is one thing he is good at and one thing only: making visually striking movies. David S Goyer and Christopher Nolan were there for the script and making sure the story was as solid as it needs to be and Snyder takes care of the action. The main story is basically superman II with zod holding the planet hostage in order to get to Supes but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Thanks to the success of SM2 Zod is almost as well know as lex luthor and is an easier sell for snyder. Zod is a physical all fighting opponent which Snyder excels at. He isn't ready as a film maker to take on the mind games and covertness that is lex luthor. And frankly they make for a less exciting movie if not done exactly right, and after the bomb that was Returns audiences know that.

This movie will be adored by critics and fans and the box office will show that love. It should have no problem passing Return's total take in its first 10 days.

I'm not going to bet against Christopher Nolan right now, but do you mean the same David S. Goyer who wrote The Unborn, Jumper, and Ghost Rider: Spirit Of Vengeance? He's no guarantee of quality or box office.

I have no doubt that Man Of Steel will do well, and it's basically a must have in box office leagues, I just wish I understood why so many people apparently want to see it because I have zero interest.

I don't know if Hollywood is really becoming less original or I'm just getting old enough to be familiar with everything that's being recycled, but I'm just tired of all these reboots, remakes, and re-whatevers. And I'm pretty much done with superhero movies in general.

[Shrykespeare]

Really, JohnErle? Well, you asked for it...

[Geezer]

Is White House Down not considered direct competition for Man of Steel?

Only noticed that WHD is PG-13, but I still don't think it has the family appeal that Superman probably will. It's not 4-quadrant.

Right but surely Monsters University, the week after it opens will appeal to families. As This is the End will appeal to young males, The Heat will appeal to females, World War Z will appeal to the sci-fi crowd, then you get Despicable Me which will be huge and The Lone Ranger.... There is heaps upon heaps of competition, and 4 quandrant competition, spread out over the next couple weeks. It will open huge, and should have no problem reaching 300 million. But will it have enough steam 2-3 weeks after its release, amidst all that competition to reach the likes of an Iron Man 3? I doubt it. Not sure if people are saying that it will, but I think the outrageous optimism might need to be cooled a bit. It's a crowded summer.

[numbersix]

I think they'll all take chunks out of it, like almost any subsequent film, but none of them are 4-quadrant.

Anyway, tracking

Supes Begins: RS high 130s, MTC 87m
This is the End: RS 20m, MTC 12m (3-day)

[empire13]

MTC has $87 mil for Man of Steel? No waaaaaay!

[Geezer]

MTC has $87 mil for Man of Steel? No waaaaaay!

I'd say that is a far more plausible number than the 12 million for This Is The End. Now THAT is outrageous.