SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/23, 5/24/13

[Shrykespeare]

Star Trek Into Darkness boldly went to a box-office victory this past weekend, scoring a bounty of over $70M on Fri-Sun and over $84M starting with its Wednesday midnight showings. This was somewhat less than most pundits thought, and one can only wonder just how strong its legs will be. Iron Man 3 pulled in another $31M to take second, and The Great Gatsby is knocking on the door of blockbuster status with another $23M. On the PTA front, Frances Ha became the first indie film in three weeks to take top honors.

It’s not that unusual for the early summer lineup to be rather sparsely populated, as each and every week (particularly in the first few weeks of May) there is a new big-budget film being released that is so big and scary that no one wants to challenge it, not even as counterprogramming. Case in point: only three movies have hit theaters in the last three weeks (discounting the complete afterthought that was Peeples), and that is why Pain & Gain is still in the Top 5 a month into its release, and why The Croods’ take of $2.75M this past weekend was enough to regain the #5 spot in its NINTH week. But all that changes this week, as three new big boys – a fast-paced actioner, an adult comedy and an animated kids’ film – all rise up to challenge Tony Stark, James Kirk and Jay Gatsby.

Since this coming weekend will encapsulate the Memorial Day holiday, three of the major Hollywood studios – Fox, Universal and Paramount – will all be putting their latest films into over 3,400 theaters. This is something of a rare occurrence, and it will be the last time until mid-July that sees this many wide-release films debuting simultaneously at all. The one that’s easily the most highly anticipated of the three is Fast & Furious 6 (Universal).

In 2001 the original The Fast and the Furious film debuted. However, what started merely as a fast-paced, lowbrow piece of action entertainment centered almost entirely on the world of street racing, graduated to full-out guns-blazing pedal-to-the-medal excellence in 2009 with Fast & Furious, the fourth chapter. Even though the fast-car motif was never abandoned, the seriousness of the plot-lines were ratcheted up and combined with high-tech heists, explosions and firefights. Fast & Furious earned a very respectable $155M, and when Dwayne Johnson joined the fun in 2011’s Fast Five, it improved on all of its predecessors by raking in over $209M.

We pick up the story a few years after Five left off. Best friends Dominic Toretto (Vin Diesel) and Brian O’Conner (Paul Walker), along with the rest of their crew, are well-off but fugitives living abroad, unable to return home to the U.S. However, when DSS agent Luke Hobbs (Johnson) tracks Toretto down, it’s not to extradite him, but to ask for his help in tracking down a criminal named Owen Shaw (Luke Evans), whose vehicular prowess and resources have made him #1 on the Most Wanted list. And to entice Dom and his crew even further, it would appear that he has Dom’s believed-to-be-dead sister Letty (Michelle Rodriguez) is in his employ, with no memory of her family. Most of the previous cast members return to reprise their roles, including Jordana Brewster, Tyrese Gibson, and Chris “Ludacris” Bridges.

You wouldn’t think that a series entering its fifth sequel would still have momentum, but the FF franchise is apparently still at its peak. There’s no denying the sex appeal of the cast and the high-octane action, and there won’t be any more pure-action films (meaning not crossing over into sci-fi or fantasy) on the docket for a good long while. The film will run you $29 in the May Ultimate leagues and $30 in Box Office, so the only question to ask yourself is… can it thrive with such stiff competition?

Iron Man 3 is still a force to be reckoned with, as is Star Trek Into Darkness. FF6 will undoubtedly win the weekend, and with a severe drop off in potential the next two weeks, if the film holds well, it could be a monster. I predict no fewer than twelve Top 5, six PTA, a Rating around 7.5 and an OW of $75M on its way to $225M. In other words, the biggest take of the franchise so far, and more than enough momentum to continue in a few years with Fast 7. If you passed on Star Trek and are a little iffy on Man of Steel, you should grab this title.




Flash back once again to 2009, when an interesting-looking adult comedy named The Hangover hit theaters. I remember thinking that it looked amusing, enough to entice audiences to the tune of about $50-$60M. Boy, was I wrong. The film busted out of the gate and became a worldwide phenomenon, earning a whopping $277M and becoming one of the highest-grossing comedies of all time. The film followed the exploits of a trio of guys who attend their friend’s Vegas wedding: Phil (Bradley Cooper), Stu (Ed Helms) and Alan (Zach Galifianakis). They got blitzed, and woke up the next morning with no memory of the night before. And then the fun began…

Two years later, The Hangover Part II reprised the theme almost exactly, only shifting the location to Thailand, earning $254M in the process. And now, two years later, we get the third and (allegedly) final film in the series, with The Hangover Part III (Warner Bros.), which finds the self-named Wolfpack returning to Vegas, where Alan has gone off his meds and, likely, off the rails. And there’s a giraffe, did I mention that? Justin Bartha, Ken Jeong, Jeffrey Tambor and Heather Graham also return, and John Goodman will join the cast, which is always a good thing.

Director Todd Phillips has interviewed that this will be the final chapter, so I’m sure that will coax everyone who enjoyed the first two films (well, the first one, anyway), to see how it all ends. Set to bow in about 3,500 theaters starting Thursday, I predict that Part III will pull in $61M for the three-day weekend, $73M for the four-day, and will also earn nine Top 5 points, four PTA, a decent Rating and $180M. Yes, for some reason I think the part-three fatigue will hit this trilogy-capper in a big way. For $27 in Ultimate ($29 in Box Office) I think you are taking too big a risk, especially when FF6 has so much more potential in every category.




The third wide-release film is also the one getting the widest release, entitled Epic (Fox), an animated film directed by Chris Wedge (who also helmed the original Ice Age film). Formerly titled Leafmen, Epic follows a young girl named M.K. (Amanda Seyfried), who is visiting her father, Prof. Bomba (Jason Sudeikis), who lives near a mysterious forest. The Professor has determined that the forest is guarded by a tribe of tiny, hummingbird-riding warriors, who protect their domain from outsiders. Venturing into the woods by herself, she is surprised when she is magically shrunk down to the size of the Leafmen, and she must then find a way to adapt to her surroundings to help them fight a war against the evil Boggans and their villainous leader Mandrake (Christoph Waltz). Also joining the voice cast are Josh Hutcherson, Colin Farrell, Beyonce Knowles, Aziz Ansari, and… Steven Tyler?!

Consider: there have only been two animated films so far this year (Escape from Planet Earth and The Croods), and the lack of competition in that genre made hits out of both of them. Now, there is no way in hell that Epic will end up outperforming titans like Monsters University or Despicable Me 2, but there is a reason that The Croods is still in the Top 5 more than two months into its run… animated family films almost always have great legs.

Of course, the downside is, this consistency comes at the expense of having a big OW, and with so much competition, it’s doubtful that Epic will earn much more than three or four Top 5 points. I’ll generously predict $33M/$110M, which makes it a much, much better pick in Box Office ($19) than in Ultimate (also $19). Of course, if you’re not feeling the vibe as much as I am, you could also opt for titles with similar prices and perhaps even more potential, such as Pacific Rim.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release films:

Before Midnight (Sony Classics) ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – This romantic drama is also a trilogy-capper, of sorts, from veteran director Richard Linklater, following Before Sunrise (1995) and Before Sunset (2004). Hmm, nine years between chapters? Well, anyway, the film once again stars Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy as Jesse and Celine, who are now living in Paris as a couple, and parents to twin daughters. However, despite outward appearances, their relationship has reached a crossroads, and the couple must decide if a life together is still in the cards for them.

Shot on location in Paris and Greece, Before Midnight will be opening in an undisclosed number of locations in New York, Los Angeles and Austin. It has gotten amazing critical reception and been showcased at several prominent film festivals, including Sundance and Tribeca. I think that it has a shot at the PTA crown, although it’s not a sure thing. If it does beat its wide-release competition, it would easily wind up with double digits in that category. It’s probably the safest bet as far as indie films go for the next few weeks.




We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (Focus Features) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – Director Alex Gibney (Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, Taxi to the Dark Side) is behind the camera for this documentary, which focuses on the organization known as WikiLeaks, a website founded in 2006 that makes public secret information from various sources, exposing classified information and video on subjects such as government corruption, toxic waste dumping and even war documents from the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. At the head of WikiLeaks was an Austrian businessman named Julian Assange, who was indicted not only for several counts of national-security violations but also sexual assault.

We Steal Secrets was also showcased at Sundance, and it will be debuting in four locations starting Friday. And while I would normally recommend this type of polarizing documentary as a good pick, its current Rating (which is dreadful) gives me pause. I would pass on this title for that reason alone.




My predictions for the weekend of May 24-26/27, 2013:

1. Fast & Furious 6 - $75 million (Fri-Sun)
2. The Hangover Part III - $61 million ($73 million Thu-Sun)
3. Star Trek Into Darkness - $37 million (Fri-Sun)
4. Epic - $33 million (Fri-Sun)
5. Iron Man 3 - $17 million (Fri-Sun)
6. The Great Gatsby – $13 million (Fri-Sun)

PTA race (all leagues): Before Midnight, Fast & Furious 6, The Hangover Part III, Frances Ha, Star Trek Into Darkness

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Fast & Furious 6 – 78% (28/36 positive), 7.7 (5,916 votes)
The Hangover Part III – N/A, N/A
Epic – N/A, N/A
Before Midnight – 94% (17/18 positive), 7.6 (1,712 votes)
We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks – 100% (4/4 positive), 4.3 (79 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, things calm down a bit, with only three films on the roster as we close out the month of May. In wide release, we have After Earth, a sci-fi action film starring the father and son team of Will and Jaden Smith, as well as Now You See Me, a high-tech heist film starring Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson and Morgan Freeman. We also have political drama The East, starring Ellen Page, in limited release.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Joan Collins (Dynasty) turns 80 on 5/23
Gary Burghoff (M*A*S*H) turns 70 on 5/24
Alfred Molina (Spider-Man 2) turns 60 on 5/24
Mike Myers (Shrek, Austin Powers) turns 50 on 5/25

Later!

[transformers2]

1.Fast and Furious 6 $88 mil
2.The Hangover Part III $58 mil ($68 mil four-day)
3.Star Trek Into Darkness $45 mil
4.Epic $27 mil
5.Iron Man 4 $18 mil

[Walleye413]

I thought Star Trek would do better, but I'm really confident on FF6. I think 100 mil for the weekend is gonna happen. Not so bold on the others, but Vin and the Rock are going to be celebrating by Monday night!

[numbersix]

I think Star Trek 2 is showing a concern about this summer being over-saturated with male-oriented blockbusters. If that can underwhelm, so can Fast 6. I'm going to say this opens less than Fast Five. The Hangover should do well due to lack of competition. Epic is a wildcard.

Even if Before Midnight opens in 15 theatres it'll still win the weekend. Just hope it won't expand too quickly. I also think the Wikileaks doc might get a few points.

1. Fast & Furious 6 - $65 million (Fri-Sun)
2. The Hangover Part III - $60 million ($70 million Thu-Sun)
3. Epic - $39 million (Fri-Sun)
4. Star Trek Into Darkness - $35 million (Fri-Sun)
5. Iron Man 3 - $16 million (Fri-Sun)

[Geezer]

I agree with everything Six said, except I don't know if Hangover opens quite that high. I know a lot of people who thought the second one was pointless and thus have no desire to see a third.

[numbersix]

Tracking...

Hangover 3: MTC 56m (3-day), BTC 61m 3-day, 100m 5-day
Fast 6: MTC 70m (3-day), BTC 83m 3-day, 100m 4-day
Epic: MTC 33m (3-day), BTC 31m 3-day, 41m 4-day

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Fast Six beats Fast Five's OW.

[Chienfantome]

Come on Hangover III, come on !!!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

As much as I personally want Hangover 3 to do well, I just can't see it happening. The trailers are weak, and while I know people hated the repetitiveness of the 2nd, this one is not doing a good job of selling what exactly is the plot. All I can glean is that Alan is being escorted to a mental facility (maybe?), but the trailers are more focused on random gags, like Zach G singing and digging his father's grave or Chow parachuting in Vegas.

Maybe $125 total? $150 if The Internship completely bombs...

[Chienfantome]

I think The Hangover III is exactly the kind of film that even if the 2nd one disappointed, the first one has got enough fans for them to show up out of curiosity and hope for a good laugh on a saturday night. So even if it's bound to make less than its predecessors, I just can't see it doing half of what the second one did, I just can't. $150M seems like the minimum it shoud be able to do, with potential to do more.

[silversurfer19]

I'd say $150m is probable, possibly higher as it will be the first big comedy in a while. However, having just seen the new Fast And The Furious, I think it's gonna take a big hit opening weekend, and the good word of mouth from F&TF should keep hitting it weekend after weekend. It'll struggle, but should just about make enough for it not to be a bomb.

[transformers2]

I'm interested to see how The Hangover Part III ends up doing. It has the benefit of being an established franchise and the first big comedy released since Identity Thief, but Part II had a lukewarm reception and if the word-of-mouth isn't great, it could struggle in the long-run. I'll say somewhere in between $130-175 mil for its final gross.

[Geezer]

I think whoever had the bright idea to open Hangover and Fast 6 on the same weekend is a moron. They play to the EXACT same audience, forcing that audience to choose and split the gross. Not to mention Star Trek and Iron man also playing to the audience. I think it prevents Fast 6 from reaching 200, and prevents Hangover from breaking 150.

[empire13]

I agree. But, surprisingly, I'll be seeing Hangover III this weekend, not Fast 6.

[numbersix]

The big difference is that you can bring your girlfriend to The Hangover, but you can't to Fast 6.