SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/23, 5/24/13

[empire13]

I don't think those IM3, Trek, Hangover slates are going to win

Probably not. But, because there are so many of us, it will keep us from being eliminated!

[JohnErle]

So the reduced price for Hangover was what, 18?

I was worried I might lose my IM in round 3 with my non-Iron Man slate, but if that many people picked The Hangover, which is underperforming, I might hang on to my IM after all. I just need a good Saturday bump and strong hold for Epic, which shouldn't be a problem since it's the only animated kids' film on the market since The Croods and until Monsters Univeristy.

[silversurfer19]

I didn't take The Hangover on any slate. Wished I could have fit FF6 on more slates but it's on pretty much every March League at least.

Latest numbers:

1. Fast And The Furious 6 - $39m Friday, $96.2m 3 Day, $119.3m Four Day Weekend
2. The Hangover 3 - $14.5m Friday, $43.0m 3 Day, $52m Four Day Weekend
3. Star Trek Into Darkness - $10.1m Friday, $37.0m 3 Day, $47.0m Four Day Weekend
4. Epic - $9.1m Friday, $34.5m 3 Day, $44.2m Four Day Weekend
5. Iron Man 3 - $5.2m Friday, 19.5m 3 Day, $25.0m Four Day Weekend
6. The Great Gatsby $3.9m Friday, $14.0m 3 Day, $18.0m Four Day Weekend

[numbersix]

Wow, I did not see The Hangover 3's underperformance coming. I felt it would do less than the others, but I was thinking 150-200m cume. And I felt the bad blood of Part 2 wouldn't have that huge an impact because none of the films were ever that good (so they weren't affected by audience taste, just like Transformers 3). And that it was the first comedy of the summer.

It could still pull in 150m if The Internship fails but that seems unlikely. I now have to try and scramble together a decent slate after this and Star Trek 2 both doing far less than expected, especially after ignoring Fast 6 on the basis that there was too much competition for that audience.

On the plus side, Before Midnight has a Friday PTA of about 15K, so should make 50K across the weekend and earn 5 PTA points.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Fast & Furious 6, $38.2M
The Hangover Part III, $14.5M
Star Trek Into Darkness, $10.2M
Epic, $9.3M
Iron Man 3, $5.1M
The Great Gatsby, $4.0M


Weekend Projections (Fri-Sun):

Fast & Furious 6, $98M
The Hangover Part III, $43.5M
Star Trek Into Darkness, $38.5M
Epic, $34M
Iron Man 3, $20M
The Great Gatsby, $14M

[Walleye413]

Fast 6 is cleaning up, and Star Trek seems to be holding well. That's good news for my slates, but also good news for "quality". Recognizing both movies for what they are, they're both pretty good, and smartly geared for their audiences without pandering down to the lowest common denominator. Yes, there will be better movies all year long, better acting, less stunts. But if you're trying to make a big summer hit, you could learn a thing or two from these two franchises.

[Chienfantome]

Damn you, The Hangover III. Damn. My Draft slate looks shaky, suddenly, and with After Earth coming right after, hum... well, maybe I won't finish 2nd this year

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates (Fri-Sun)

Top 10:
5 points - Fast & Furious 6, $98.5M
4 points - The Hangover Part III, $42.4M
3 points - Star Trek Into Darkness, $38M
2 points - Epic, $34.2M
1 point - Iron Man 3, $19.4M
The Great Gatsby, $13.7M
Mud, $1.9M
42, $1.2M
The Croods, $1.2M
Oblivion, $815K

PTA:
5 points - Before Midnight
4 points - Fast & Furious 6
3 points - The Hangover Part III
2 points - Frances Ha
1 point - Star Trek Into Darkness

We Steal Secrets finishes 7th, with a PTA of $7,250. What a tough week.

[W]

My quarterly draft slate is screwed (unless DMe2 and White House Diwn over perform), but at least Bedore Midnight did well.

[Chienfantome]

Great numbers from Before Midnight, yes.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals:

Top 10:
5 points - Fast & Furious 6, $97.7M ($117.0M 4-day)
4 points - The Hangover Part III, $41.7M ($62.1M 5-day)
3 points - Star Trek Into Darkness, $37.3M ($47.2M 4-day)
2 points - Epic, $33.5M ($42.8M 4-day)
1 point - Iron Man 3, $19.3M ($24.7M 4-day)
The Great Gatsby, $13.5M ($17.0M 4-day)
Mud, $1.9M
42, $1.3M
The Croods, $1.2M
Oblivion, $869K

PTA:
5 points - Before Midnight, $49,400
4 points - Fast & Furious 6, $26,620
3 points - The Hangover Part III, $11,722
2 points - Star Trek Into Darkness, $9,545
1 point - Frances Ha, $9,100

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Fast And Furious 6 will most likely make more than STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS. That's crazy.

And it'll probably be the third biggest movie of the summer, behind only Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel.

[Chienfantome]

That would be crazy indeed. Unless it drops so hard that it falls behind Star Trek. Which would be kind of reassuring and satisfying.

[Geezer]

That would be crazy indeed. Unless it drops so hard that it falls behind Star Trek. Which would be kind of reassuring and satisfying.

I believe it will.