SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/10/13

[Geezer]

I think it's going to be a good Ultimate pick too. If it can grab 125 million, it is guaranteed 7 top 5 points, and there aren't many movies in a crowded summer that will best that, and the ones that will are 10+ dollars more. Just gotta hope the imdb score is good.

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report

Looks like the $2 picks were very popular. Probably because they were $2.



Ultimate FY (R3, R4, R5 - 35 players)

Great Gatsby - 2, 3, 3
Peeples - 1, 0, 0
Sightseers - 4, 2, 3
No One Lives - 5, 4, 0
Java Heat - 2, 1, 2


Ultimate HY (R3, R4, R5 - 27 players)

Great Gatsby - 0, 3, 2
Peeples - 1, 0, 0
Sightseers - 3, 2, 5
No One Lives - 5, 4, 2
Java Heat - 3, 1,1


Box Office FY (R3, R4, R5 - 37 players)

Great Gatsby - 2, 2, 3
Peeples - 2, 1, 0


Box Office HY (R3, R4, R5 - 28 players)

Great Gatsby - 0, 3, 1
Peeples - 1, 1, 1
Sightseers - 1, 0, 0


Bankrupts Leagues, 2nd Quarter (Ult - 11 players; BO - 13 players)

Great Gatsby - 2, 6
Peeples - 11, 7
No One Lives - 0, 1
Java Heat - 1, 0

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

The Great Gatsby - 3,535
Peeples - 2,041
No One Lives - 53
Sightseers - 2
Java Heat - 1


Estimates for next week:

Star Trek Into Darkness - 3,700
Frances Ha - 4

[Geezer]

Officially stoked I added Gatsby to a bunch of slates. 55+ opening weekend! Beyond my wildest expectations!

[Chienfantome]

55+ ???!!! Damn, I didn't see that one coming.

[numbersix]

I think it could be a little frontloaded due to fans of the novels and poor word of mouth. But it's certainly going to make 45m+, which is way more than any of us expected.

High-five to Geez for picking it up in the Full Year draft leagues!

[silversurfer19]

I do suspect it will be very front loaded though, with female audiences being desperate for a movie. Probably good for $110-125m though, which is fantastic and much higher than I imagine most expected. Peeples has been a disaster though, estimates at $3.1m!

[JohnErle]

I always anticipated bad reviews, a poor cinemascore, and heavy frontloading from Gatsby, but I never expected the OW to be that high. We'll see if Deadline's early guesstimates hold up and how well it does in the coming weeks.

And as for Peeples, I hope Deadline is wrong on that one too, otherwise I've got my first underperforming flop of the yearly draft. Hopefully it'll be the last, unlike last year.

Some good news for my draft, though: after some unremarkable mid-week numbers, Deadline is predicting a 62% drop for IM3. Me likey.

[Geezer]

I don't anticipate it to be frontloaded, at least not too frontloaded. It is an older-skewing movie, which generally creates solid legs as the older crowd doesn't tend to rush out for opening weekend. Also, tell me what the next older and female aimed film is coming out? Because I think it is The Heat, June 28th. I think the legs will be solid unless the Cinemascore is absolutely dreadful (which it sits at a "B" right now).

Deadline still giving it 53 million. I'd have been happy with 40.

Iron Man dropping to an estimated 67 million. Not that great a hold, but I think anyone that expected it to nab over 80 million this weekend was dreaming. Gatsby might even hold well enough to surpass it in the third weekend, if Star Trek, a direct competition, steals a lot of its potential audience. It should still gross between 350-400 in the long run though. Just as most had expected.

What a miserable bomb for Peeples!! Damn, I guess there is a difference between a Tyler Perry film, and a "Tyler Perry Presents" film.

[JohnErle]

I'm not convinced Gatsby does skew older. A straight-up adaptation of the book would have, but this has Baz Lurhman's frantic stylistic overload, a hip-hop soundtrack, and 3D, all of which skew young. Older fans of the book may stay far, far away from the movie based on the reviews and the trailer. Has anyone seen any exit polling yet?

And yeah, Iron Man 3 should be good for 350-400 million, which the Hunger Games has an excellent chance of beating, so I'm breathing a little easier now. The OW had me a bit worried I'd made the wrong choice.

[Geezer]

But wouldn't you agree that out of all of the choices available, it is the most likely to skew older?

[JohnErle]

Compared to Iron Man? Just barely. But compared to 42, The Big Wedding, or limited releases like Mud, no. And like you said, older audiences often wait for the crowds to thin out, which is probably why 42 has had such great legs.

Older audiences don't often go see a movie just because it's the best option currently in theatres. They'll usually find something else to do, like put their feet up and re-read the book.

[Geezer]

I was more comparing it the next wave. I'd assume that most have seen 42 5 weeks in, and in the coming weeks it will be phased out. Same with the Big Wedding, which apparently never appealed to anyone. Mud isn't going to be available everywhere. I'm saying compared to Iron Man, Fast and Furious, Hangover 3, Star Trek and After Earth, Gatsby is far and away the most older skewing film, ESPECIALLY older female. And while critics may not be happy with the film, audiences don't seem to have a problem with it, with a good cinemascore and 7.5 IMDB. If it opens to 50 million and totals less than 140 million, I'd be very surprised.

[JohnErle]

Whoever showed up on Friday it's off to a great start and shouldn't need the English major audience to reach 100 million.

[Shrykespeare]

Bumped to next page.