SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/10/13

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Holy shit, this is close.

Iron Man 3, $19.8M
The Great Gatsby, $19.4M
Pain and Gain, $1.3M
Peeples, $1.2M
42, $1.1M
Oblivion, $1.0M


Weekend Projections

Iron Man 3, $70M
The Great Gatsby, $52.5M
Pain and Gain. $4.5M
42, $4.1M
Peeples, $4.0M
Oblivion, $3.6M
The Croods, $3.2M
Mud, $2.3M
The Big Wedding, $2.1M

[Chienfantome]

Amazing Gatsby. And Peeples... well, amazing but in a very different (and bad) way...

[Geezer]

I just got back from Gatsby. I underestimated the crowds....

When I got there, the showing I intended to see was sold out. They added another that I got into, had I gotten there 10 minutes later, that would have been sold out as well, theater was full to the brim. I think the whole industry drastically underestimated the appeal.

The audience did skew slightly older, but there was a solid representation of all age groups, including some teenagers. It's a great date movie.

And it was a pretty darn good movie and the crowd seemed to like it. Only further enhances my opinion that the legs will be good if not great.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Same thing here, Geez. The 3D show I wanted to go to was sold out, and the 2D I did go to also sold out. I'm sure the later ones were packed too.

There was a bunch of groups of older people (like in their 50-60s) but a lot of couples too. I think the lackluster-ness of Iron Man 3 is helping this a lot.

[Geezer]

I wouldn't be surprised if it finished 2nd next weekend. I can't comment on the state of the 3D shows, I never even looked at them, but I bet they were just as packed.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Iron Man 3, $72.4M ($284.9M total)
4 points - The Great Gatsby, $51.1M
3 points - Pain and Gain, $5M
2 points - Peeples, $4.8M (ugh)
1 point - 42, $4.7M
Oblivion, $3.9M
The Croods, $3.6M
The Big Wedding, $2.5M
Mud, $2.3M
Oz: The Great and Powerful, $802K

PTA (Mar/Apr):
5 points - Iron Man 3
4 points - The Great Gatsby
3 points - Love is All You Need
2 points - Kon-Tiki
1 point - Peeples

PTA (Mar/Apr):
5 points - Iron Man 3
4 points - The Great Gatsby
3 points - Love is All You Need
2 points - Peeples
1 point - unknown

No word yet on Sightseers or Java Heat, not to mention Something in the Air. I find it impossible to believe that No One Lives, which had a PTA of $866, will get that last spot.

[Geezer]

I'd expect all three of those films to pass Peeples.

And funnily enough, the theater I was at last night was one of the 53 that got No One Lives. I have no report as to how many people saw it there, but I'm guessing not many.

[numbersix]

Last time I checked Sightseers wasn't doing very well, but it will beat No One Knows... I'd say a PTa of about 3K. No idea about Java Heat.

[Chienfantome]

Peeples' take is remarkably laughable. Those predictions seemed a bit high to me, but still. Ha !

[Brockster]

Glad to see that Kon-Tiki is still getting PTA, I was a little scared after its PTA on the first weekend.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Iron Man 3, $72.5M
4 points - The Great Gatsby, $50.1M
3 points - Pain and Gain, $5.0M
2 points - Peeples, $4.61M
1 point - 42, $4.6M
Oblivion, $4.1M
The Croods, $3.6M
Mud, $2.5M
The Big Wedding, $2.5M
Oz: The Great and Powerful, $1.1M

PTA (Mar/Apr):
5 points - Iron Man 3, $17,053
4 points - The Great Gatsby, $14,169
3 points - Kon-Tiki, $3,852
2 points - Love Is All You Need, $3,718
1 point - Sightseers, $3,692

PTA (May):
5 points - Iron Man 3, $17,053
4 points - The Great Gatsby, $14,169
3 points - Love Is All You Need, $3,718
2 points - Sightseers, $3,692
1 points - Peeples, $2,259

No One Lives and Something in the Air missed the Top 5. Still no word on Java Heat, though I'd be surprised if it had enough numbers to get any PTA anyway. If it doesn't report after next weekend, I'll ask that it be removed so people who took it can pick something else (though if they only have the $2 left to spend in the March leagues, they're SOL, as there are no more $2 films left in the March-May leagues).

[Geezer]

Because of the price thing, you shouldn't have it removed, as the imdb score removal from those that don't have another option could be a huge blow. And I'm sure anyone that took it didn't have another option.

[Shrykespeare]

Well, that's one of the advantages of keeping the game on a separate spreadsheet. If a film's numbers don't report, I don't think the game site counts its User Rating. I figure if nothing else, the player who chose the film should benefit from that, even if it brings in $0 for game purposes.

[Geezer]

Right. the 5 user rating points are much more valuable than the negligible dollars would have been anyway.

[Chienfantome]

I don't understand why Ben Wheatley films don't fare better with glowing reviews and minimum nuymber of theaters. Come on USA !