SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/3/13

[Shrykespeare]

The combo of Walhberg/Johnson proved too much for Tom Cruise, as Pain & Gain bullied its way to $20M this past weekend, taking the narrow box office victory over Oblivion, which fell just short at $17.4M. The weekend’s other new film, The Big Wedding, as expected, was a monumental disappointment but still came in at #4, with a paltry $7.5M. On the PTA front, Oscar-nominated foreign film Kon-Tiki scored a narrow victory over The Reluctant Fundamentalist.

Ah, the excitement. The anticipation. The buzz that comes at this time every year. The tingle that all staunch moviegoers get as we being yet another summer season, where the biggest and loudest films hit theaters, providing respite for the scorching temperatures pervading the outside world. And, once again, just like every first-weekend-of-May since 2007, the summer’s leadoff spot belongs to a Marvel Comics superhero. Following in the immense footsteps of the record-shattering The Avengers, which came out at this time last year, comes the first chapter in that saga’s aftermath, and, perhaps not coincidentally, it features the same character that started it all off: Iron Man 3 (Buena Vista) will barrel headlong into well over 4,000 theaters starting Friday.

It all began in 2008, when the original Iron Man hit theaters. At the end of that film, we were teased with the promise of something huge… a team of superheroes, with most of its characters getting its own film to build up the story. Iron Man was followed by The Incredible Hulk, Thor and Captain America, and though they were all successful (reaching blockbuster status), none flew anywhere near as high as Iron Man, which rode a $98M OW to a total of $318M. In 2010, we got the second chapter in the Iron Man saga, and that film had an even better OW ($128M), even though it fell just short of its predecessor both critically (by a large margin) and financially ($312M).

Of course, following hot on the heels of the The Avengers, which earned a whopping $623M last summer, the expectation for Iron Man 3 is through the roof. And though Jon Favreau has ceded the director’s chair to the almost-as-inexperienced Shane Black, who has only directed one other full-length feature, 2005’s Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, which also starred Robert Downey Jr.

Sometime after the events of The Avengers, we rejoin Tony Stark as he tries to pick up the pieces of his life in the wake of the thwarted alien invasion. Haunted by his experiences, he has used his time to build several other metal suits, which annoys his girlfriend, Pepper Potts (Gwyneth Paltrow). However, Tony must once again don the Iron Man suit when America is rocked by a series of terrorist attacks perpetrated by a mysterious villain known as The Mandarin (Ben Kingsley).

In trying to determine The Mandarin’s next move, Stark discovers that yet another shadowy figure may be acting in concert, that of crippled scientist Aldrich Killian (Guy Pearce), who has his own evil designs not only for Stark but for the U.S. government. Don Cheadle and Jon Favreau reprise their previous roles as James Rhodes and Happy Hogan, and the supporting cast is rounded out by Rebecca Hall, Paul Bettany, William Sadler and Ty Simpkins. One of Stark’s fellow Avengers is also reputed to appear in a post-credits scene, so stick around after the film is over.

Obviously, no other wide release wants to take on this juggernaut, and next week’s releases can definitely be classified as counter-programming. It’s fairly safe to say that Iron Man 3 will top the box office in its first two weeks, and drop to only second place in two weeks when Star Trek Into Darkness comes out. That’s at least fourteen Top 5 points, possibly a few more. I would be surprised if it earned less than eight PTA points.

The biggest question, though… just how high can it go? Looking at the docket for the rest of the summer (and, indeed, for the rest of the year), Iron Man 3 has to be on everyone’s short-list for the film that will be 2013’s highest-grossing movie. Later on this year, we will see how the second chapters in the Hunger Games and The Hobbit stories do, but there is really nothing else this summer that has even close to the potential that Iron Man 3 does.

Under normal circumstances, it would be foolhardy to assume that the third chapter of a franchise could significantly outearn its predecessors by a noticeable margin, but as I’ve said, circumstances are unique. Iron Man 3 has everything possible going for it – no competition for at least two weeks, huge buzz and word of mouth, tremendous reviews, and being the first film to continue the story that culminated in The Avengers, a story that will continue in the next twelve months with new Thor and Captain America films, all leading up to another Avengers film that could hit theaters as early as 2015.

Obviously, Iron Man 3 is the most expensive property of the about-to-star May-July season, and will run you $45 in the Ultimate game and $48 in the Box Office. So the question is, can you survive without it? At that price, you won’t be able to afford any but second- and third-tier films to go along with it, along with a few indie films. You could spend less on Star Trek Into Darkness ($39/$39) or Man of Steel ($36/$38), which would leave more room in the budget, and those films could conceivably earn an equal number of Top 5 and PTA points, even though they likely won’t come quite as close in dollars earned.

Can you win without it? Yes. Do you want to try? That's a huge risk. There are so few guarantees in this game, and Iron Man 3 is one of those guarantees. I envision an OW of $150M on its way to $350M. Spending nearly half your budget on one film may sting, but in the end, I have to believe that it will be well worth it.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited-release films:

Love Is All You Need (Sony Classics) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This romantic comedy from the nation of Denmark is the latest from Oscar- and Golden Globe-winning director Susanne Bier (In a Better World). The film stars Trine Dyrholm as Ida, a hairdresser and cancer survivor who is trying to make her way to Italy to attend her daughter’s wedding. On the way, she just happens to run into the groom’s father (Pierce Brosnan), and the two strike up a friendship that may blossom into something more when Ida’s husband’s infidelity is revealed. The film includes both English and Danish with English subtitles, and will be opening in a few theaters in New York and Los Angeles.

It’s refreshing to see that Brosnan, nearly 60, hasn’t lost any of his Bond-esque charms. And if Quartet proved anything, it’s that veteran actors in scenic locations can do quite well if there’s a good script and a competent director. And judging from the reviews that have come in thus far, Love is All You Need has just that. It’s not going to beat Iron Man 3 for the PTA crown, but since it only has two other films to beat out for the #2 spot, I think it can glean as many as six PTA points in the May leagues. Not a bad investment for $3, and its Rating, while not stellar, won’t hurt you that much.




Something in the Air (IFC) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This French drama is the latest from director Olivier Assayas (Summer Hours), and it has already been showcased at numerous film festivals, including Toronto, New York and San Francisco. It is a semi-autobiographical story of Assayas’ life, chronicling his years as a young man growing up in the politically turbulent French student movement of the early 1970’s. The main character is Gilles (Clement Metayer), a graduating high school senior whose aspirations lean towards the revolutionary, as influenced by his radicalized girlfriend Christine (Lola Creton).

Something in the Air will be debuting in three theaters this weekend. That’s good. However, according to IFC’s website, the film will be going to VOD starting May 9, which would seem to preclude any further PTA points that it might earn. As it is, I expect three or four PTA, max, and that’s it. I’d pass.




Kiss of the Damned (Magnolia) ($2 Ult, $2 BO) – This horror/drama marks the directorial debut of Xan Cassavetes (sister of actor/director Nick). It tells the story of Djuna (Josephine de la Baume), a vampire who falls in love with a human screenwriter named Paolo (Milo Ventimiglia), who doesn’t know of her true nature. However, their budding romance is threatened when Djuna’s troublemaking sister Mimi (Roxanne Mesquida) comes to visit, a visit that may threaten not only Djuna’s relationship but the whole of the vampire community.

From the trailer, the story looks like a modern B-movie, and not even on the level of a Rob Zombie film. I would imagine that Kiss of the Damned will earn its bare minimum of PTA points (two) and exit. But for $2, what more can you expect?




My predictions for the weekend of May 3-5, 2013:

1. Iron Man 3 - $150 million
2. Pain & Gain - $9 million
3. Oblivion - $9 million
4. The Croods - $5 million
5. The Big Wedding - $4 million

PTA race (Mar/Apr): Iron Man 3, Kon-Tiki, Love is All You Need, The Reluctant Fundamentalist, Something in the Air

PTA race (May): Iron Man 3, Love is All You Need, Something in the Air, Kiss of the Damned

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Iron Man 3 – 93% (54/58 positive), 8.0 (31,423 votes)
Love is All You Need – 79% (30/38 positive), 6.5 (2,394 votes)
Something in the Air – 63% (5/8 positive), 6.8 (648 votes)
Kiss of the Damned – 60% (3/5 positive), 5.0 (538 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, five more films will attempt to put a dent in Iron Man’s hardened armor: The Great Gatsby, Baz Luhrmann’s take on the F. Scott Fitzgerald classic novel; Peeples, an African-American comedy produced by Tyler Perry; and, in limited release, Sightseers, No One Lives and Java Heat.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Willie Nelson (country singer) turns 80 on 4/30
Michael Palin (Monty Python alum) turns 70 on 5/5
Tina Yothers (Family Ties) turns 40 on 5/5
Henry Cavill (Man of Steel) turns 30 on 5/5

Later!

[numbersix]

I think Iron Man 3 can go higher than that. If The Avengers can open to 200m, and the advance buzz from Europe is that IM3 is back on track, not to mention it outperforming The Avengers' opening week in some territories, I think it's going to be close.

As for PTA, your order is spot on. Love is All You Need should be the best choice for PTA.

1. Iron Man 3 - $175 million
2. Pain & Gain - $8 million
3. Oblivion - $8 million
4. 42 - $7 million
5. The Croods - $4 million

[numbersix]

Iron Man 3 tracking

RS: low 140s
MTC: 174m

[Shrykespeare]

Not surprisingly, with the draft, there's been very little chat about this weekend.

Official Theater Counts:

Iron Man 3 - 4,253
Something in the Air - 3


Estimates for next week:

The Great Gatsby - 3,350+
Peeples - 2,000
No One Lives - 50
Sightseers - 2
Java Heat - 1

[empire13]

Six, looks like you're spot on with your Iron Man numbers. Preliminary box office is at $174 mil. I had it pegged for very low $160's. There might just be a very generous Avenger bump for all of the marvel superheroes.

[numbersix]

Six, looks like you're spot on with your Iron Man numbers. Preliminary box office is at $174 mil. I had it pegged for very low $160's. There might just be a very generous Avenger bump for all of the marvel superheroes.

It's early days. When Avengers came out the estimates went from 150 to 160 to 180 on the Saturday, and it was only on Sunday evening did they peg it was over 200mil.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Iron Man 3, $68.3M
Pain and Gain, $2.3M
42, $1.8M
Oblivion, $1.7M
The Big Wedding, $1.2M
The Croods, $945K
Oz, $634K
Mud, $634K
Scary Movie 5, $457K
G.I. Joe, $352K


Weekend Projections

Iron Man 3, $169M
Pain and Gain, $7.2M
42, $6.3M
Oblivion, $5.8M
The Croods, $4.0M

That would make 20 Top 5 points for The Croods.

The Big Wedding, $3.9M
Oz: The Great and Powerful, $2.2M
Mud, $2.2M
Scary Movie 5, $1.4M
G.I. Joe: Retaliation, $1.3M
Olympus Has Fallen, $1.2M

[Shrykespeare]

Wow. Opening week of summer, and we're not even on Page 2 yet.

Top 10:
5 points - Iron Man 3, $175.3M
4 points - Pain and Gain, $7.6M
3 points - 42, $6.2M
2 points - Oblivion, $5.8M
1 point - The Croods, $4.2M
The Big Wedding, $3.9M
Mud, $2.2M
Oz: The Great and Powerful, $1.8M
Scary Movie 5, $1.4M
The Place Beyond the Pines, $1.3M

PTA (Mar/Apr):
5 points - Iron Man 3
4 points - Love is All You Need
3 points - Kon-Tiki
2 points - Something in the Air
1 point - The Reluctant Fundamentalist

PTA (May):
5 points - Iron Man 3
4 points - Love is All You Need
3 points - Something in the Air
2 points - Kiss of the Damned (presumably)

[silversurfer19]

Wow. Opening week of summer, and we're not even on Page 2 yet.

To be fair, I don't think there was much doubt regarding how this weekend would turn out, give or take $170m...

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I wish Paramount had set a better release date for Pain & Gain, it's a great movie that didn't deserve to be bulldozed by the summer releases.

[Chienfantome]

Even if oviously you can't expect such openings and BO perspectives for Thor 2 or Captain America 2, I think the Iron Man 3 figures do bode well for the other Avengers solo adventures, and those will significantly rise above what the first Thor and Captain America did.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 11:
5 points - Iron Man 3, $174.1M
4 points - Pain & Gain, $7.5M
3 points - 42, $6.1M
2 points - Oblivion, $5.6M
1 point - The Croods, $4.2M
The Big Wedding, $3.9M
Mud, $2.2M
Oz: The Great and Powerful, $2.1M
Scary Movie 5, $1.4M
The Place Beyond the Pines, $1.28M
G.I. Joe: Retaliation, $1.27m

PTA (Mar/Apr):
5 points - Iron Man 3, $40,946
4 points - Love is All You Need, $9,187
3 points - Kon-Tiki, $5,293
2 points - Something in the Air, $4,429
1 point - The Reluctant Fundamentalist, $2,464

PTA (May):
5 points - Iron Man 3, $40,946
4 points - Love is All You Need, $9,187
3 points - Something in the Air, $4,420
2 points - Kiss of the Damned, $1,362

[transformers2]

I wish Paramount had set a better release date for Pain & Gain, it's a great movie that didn't deserve to be bulldozed by the summer releases.

This, it would've fared a lot better with an early-April release.

[Shrykespeare]

The question now is, how will Iron Man 3 hold? Will it drop less than 50% or more than 50%?

[Geezer]

I think it drops to about 80 million, so more than 50%. Every film that opens huge like this drops more than 50%.