Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/19/13

Shrykespeare · Post by **Shrykespeare** » April 14th, 2013, 8:05 pm

Coinciding with the start of baseball season a few weeks ago, 42 pleased both baseball and movie fans alike, taking over $27M en route to a box office victory this past weekend. Coming in a distant second was the weekend’s other newcomer, horror spoof Scary Movie 5, which was only able to scare up (heh) about $15M in its first three days, a far cry from all of the other installments in that series. On the PTA front, 42 took first place as well, just ahead of The Place Beyond the Pines, which pulled an impressive PTA number despite expanding to over 500 theaters.

We are but a few short weeks away from the summer season. However, as we gird our loins for the latest films in the Iron Man, Star Trek, Fast & Furious and Hangover franchises, we’ll stop to talk about the weekend of April 19, which features only three film making their debuts, two in limited release and only one in wide-release. And that one film getting a solo debut is Tom Cruise’s latest film, Oblivion (Universal).

Though Cruise’s career (which began back in the early 80’s) has often been tumultuous, there’s no denying that his star is still pretty high in the sky. Now 50 years old, he continues to bring in respectable numbers in just about every movie in which he stars, as evidenced by the amazing numbers brought in two winters ago in Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol ($209M). His last outing, December’s Jack Reacher, wasn’t quite as successful but still managed $80M. This is not Cruise’s first foray into sci-fi, having led both 2002’s Minority Report ($132M) and 2005’s War of the Worlds ($234M) to blockbuster status.

At the helm of Oblivion is Joseph Kosinski (Tron: Legacy), who also co-produced the film as well as co-writing the screenplay with William Monahan (The Departed), Karl Gajdusek and Michael Arndt (who is also co-writing the screenplay for the next Hunger Games film). Universal is putting the film into around 3,800 theaters, which I have to believe is one of the largest platforms ever for an April release.

The plot: In the future, Earth is practically uninhabitable after it is nearly destroyed by an alien race called “Scavengers”. Six decades later, Jack Harper (Cruise), a former Marine commander, is one of the few humans still stationed on Earth. He and his colleague Victoria (Andrea Riseborough) are assigned to clean up what few resources remain and arranged for them to be shipped off-world. However, near the end of his assignment, however, he rescues a woman named Julia (Olga Kurylenko) from a downed spacecraft, and then things change dramatically, especially when the leader of a group of undetected humans (Morgan Freeman) tells Jack that his employers have been lying to him and that there are no more aliens on Earth. Jack must then use all of his resources and courage to discover the truth. Melissa Leo (Olympus Has Fallen) and Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Headhunters) also co-star.

As I said, mixing Tom Cruise and the sci-fi genre generally draws a lot of fans, and throwing in Morgan Freeman, one of the most reliable actors in history, certainly can’t hurt. The film looks exciting, action-packed and dramatic, and there hasn’t been a sci-fi film for a while with quite this much punch. Plus, early reviews have been mostly favorable, which also can’t hurt.

The bad news is: though there haven’t been any sci-fi/fantasy action films prior to this for a while, there are a plethora of film in that genre coming after it. In the next six weeks alone, you have Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness and After Earth coming to theaters. It goes without saying that Oblivion’s final tally will likely pale in comparison to at least the first two films on that list. And depending on how good this film is, it could set the table for Cruise’s next film, which is also a sci-fi actioner, next spring’s All You Need is Kill.

Oblivion is priced at $23 in the April Ultimate leagues and $22 in Box Office. With only three films debuting in the next two weeks, it should pull at least twelve Top 5 points, along with five PTA, a Rating in the low 7’s and an OW of $33M on its way to $94M overall. Those are good numbers, to be sure, solid in just about every category. The return on investment isn’t as high as it will be on Iron Man 3 or Star Trek Into Darkness, but it’s still decent.

The more noteworthy of this weeks’ two limited-release films is In the House (Cohen Media Group), a French import from director Francois Ozon (Potiche). It was won numerous awards at numerous Film Festivals, including Toronto, San Sebastian and Zurich, among others. It tells the story of Germain, a high-school teacher who becomes interested in the essays of a gifted youngster named Claude (Ernst Umhauer), essays were inspired by time spent in the home of a fellow student. However, Germain starts to become alarmed when Claude’s writings become seem to become more and more intrusive, even voyeuristic. Kristin Scott Thomas also co-stars.

I don’t know how many theaters will be showcasing In the House, but like most French films, I’d be surprised if it was a large numbers. Critical response has been terrific, and the film also has a well-established and respectable Rating that isn’t likely to change much. I can easily see In the House not only taking the PTA crown this weekend, but holding on for additional points next week as well. For only $4, I would grab this film with both hands.

Last up is the latest project from singer/director Rob Zombie, who helmed previous horror flicks as The Devil’s Rejects and the two most recent Halloween films. His newest is a film entitled The Lords of Salem (Anchor Bay Films), which will be blowing into roughly 300 theaters starting Friday. However, unlike some of his previous projects, he has a lot of high-powered help, in the form of co-producers Oren Peli (created of the Paranormal Activity franchise) and Quentin Tarantino himself.

Sheri Moon Zombie (Rob’s wife) stars as Heidi, a DJ in Salem, Massachusetts, the site of the notorious “witch trials” some more than three centuries ago. After playing a recording from a mysterious group called “The Lords” – which she assumed was a new band – she soon discovers the horrifying truth, a truth that involves Satanism, witchcraft and demonic possession. (At least, that’s what I’ve been able to glean from the trailer.) Bruce Davison, Meg Foster and Zombie’s go-to guy Sid Haig costars.

Well, I’m sure there’s an audience for this, but it’s not a huge one. The reviews have been bad, its current Rating isn’t much better, and three theaters is a very poor number to have if you are trying for PTA, unless your film is called The Place Beyond the Pines. I wouldn’t take this film in anything except Bankrupts.

My predictions for the weekend of April 19-21, 2013:

1. Oblivion - $33 million
2. 42 - $15 million
3. The Croods - $10 million
4. Scary Movie 5 - $7 million
5. G.I. Joe: Retaliation – $6 million

PTA race (all leagues): In the House, Oblivion, 42, The Company You Keep, The Angels’ Share

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Oblivion – 66% (31/47 positive), 7.3 (14,402 votes)
In the House – 91% (20/22 positive), 7.3 (3,976 votes)
The Lords of Salem – 38% (3/8 positive), 5.6 (850 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out April with six new films, which will be debuting the week of Friday, April 26, including: Pain & Gain, an action film starring Dwayne Johnson and Mark Wahlberg, The Big Wedding, a wedding-based comedy with an ensemble cast that includes Robert DeNiro, Susan Sarandon and Robin Williams; and, in limited release, Kon-Tiki, The Reluctant Fundamentalist, At Any Price and Graceland.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Alice Braga (I Am Legend, Predators) turns 30 on 4/15
Rick Moranis (Spaceballs, Ghostbusters) turns 60 on 4/18
Conan O’Brien (late-night talk-show host) turns 50 on 4/18
Peter Garrett (Midnight Oil lead singer) turns 60 on 4/19

Later!

empire13 · Post by **empire13** » April 14th, 2013, 9:23 pm

Does anyone know how wide Focus plans on expanding The Place Beyond the Pines? It had a pretty strong hold at 514 theaters, and if it at least doubles its theater count next weekend with Oblivion as the only wide release, it could do $6-$8 Million and take down a Top 5 point or two.

numbersix · Post by **numbersix** » April 15th, 2013, 3:45 am

empire13 wrote:Does anyone know how wide Focus plans on expanding The Place Beyond the Pines? It had a pretty strong hold at 514 theaters, and if it at least doubles its theater count next weekend with Oblivion as the only wide release, it could do $6-$8 Million and take down a Top 5 point or two.

It's opening in about 1000 theatres this weekend.

numbersix · Post by **numbersix** » April 15th, 2013, 4:05 am

Not much faith in Oblivion, Shryke? I think ti being the closest to a blockbuster all month, plus the lack of competition, suggests that it should do quite well this weekend, though I don't expect its hold to be strong, especially with Iron Man 3 coming up.

As for PTA, In the House should fight Oblivion for the top, though the rest is quite open.

1. Oblivion - $38 million
2. 42 - $15 million
3. The Croods - $8 million
4. Scary Movie 5 - $6.5 million
5. The Place Beyond the Pines – $6 million

Chienfantome · Post by **Chienfantome** » April 15th, 2013, 6:29 am

In the House is gonna win the PTA crown of the weekend easily, and should be able to grab some more next weekend.
Oblivion will strongly benefit from having no competition. In France it got a decent start, but suffered from being released on the same day as The Croods.

transformers2 · Post by **transformers2** » April 15th, 2013, 9:54 am

1.Oblivion $33 mil
2.42 $19 mil
3.The Croods $9 mil
4/5.Scary Movie 5/G.I Joe: Retaliation $6 mi

Brockster · Post by **Brockster** » April 15th, 2013, 5:14 pm

Very quietly The Croods is just raking in the Top 5 points. Wish I'd put it on more than just a few slates.

numbersix · Post by **numbersix** » April 16th, 2013, 11:12 am

Tracking:

Oblivion: BTC 40m, MTC 26m, RS mid 50s
Place Beyond the Pines: BTC 5m, MTC 4m, RS n/a

That's a pretty wide range for Oblivion.

transformers2 · Post by **transformers2** » April 16th, 2013, 11:15 am

You're not kidding

With those numbers, it shows just how much of a crapshoot Oblivion will be at the box office.

BanksIsDaFuture · Post by **BanksIsDaFuture** » April 16th, 2013, 12:47 pm

I think Oblivion is only going to get around $30-$35M this weekend. The marketing is very bleh, it doesn't show anything to single it out as a "must-see". It's just random future movie.

I'll say 35/105 just off the fact that it's Tom Cruise and it's opening by itself, and in Imax.

W · Post by W » April 16th, 2013, 2:51 pm

I've been wondering... Why is Morgan Freeman not mentioned anywhere on the poster, trailer, anything? All you see is about a second of him in the trailer, and behind some shades. Just enough for people to say, "Is that Morgan Freeman?" They seemed to do that with Olympus too.

Is it politically motivated as he's more linked to the Obama administration than any other actor? Or is it that he's not in much of the movie despite being billed second?

silversurfer19 · Post by **silversurfer19** » April 16th, 2013, 3:52 pm

He's in the movie for about 15 minutes in total, Kurylenko and Andrea Riseborough have much bigger roles. And I guess they want to keep Freeman's character a little more mysterious.

Geezer · Post by **Geezer** » April 16th, 2013, 7:07 pm

I think people are underestimating Oblivion. I'm going to say it hits 40 million this weekend, en route to 125 million total.

BanksIsDaFuture · Post by **BanksIsDaFuture** » April 16th, 2013, 8:07 pm

Geezer wrote:I think people are underestimating Oblivion. I'm going to say it hits 40 million this weekend, en route to 125 million total.

I don't see how. If you look at the similar movies to Oblivion on BOM, none of them have hit $100M, unless they had a pre-sold audience.

Original sci-fi doesn't set the box office on fire anymore, from Looper to Lockout to John Carter to In Time to The Book of Eli to Surrogates to The Island.

Quick: name the last original Tom Cruise film to gross over $100M.
(You'd need to go back to 2004's Collateral for the answer - 9 YEARS AGO!!)

Geezer · Post by **Geezer** » April 16th, 2013, 9:15 pm

Lack of competition+Tom Cruise+ Interesting premise+ Good trailer+ huge theater count. I see it performing similarly to Prometheus, assuming the word of mouth is good. Prometheus had shitty WOM, which off-set its name-brand/awesome trailer appeal. So Oblivion, lacking those, but with the WOM, could finish similarly. And from what I've heard, it's good. So that is my logic.