SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/12/13 +Top Ten

[Shrykespeare]

Much like Mama did in January, Evil Dead brought horror-lovers to theaters in droves this past weekend, copping $26M and the box office crown. Ending up in a virtual tie for second was G.I. Joe: Retaliation and The Croods (both with just over $21M), while the weekend’s other debut, Jurassic Park 3D, came in fourth with a respectable $18M of its own. On the PTA front, Danny Boyle’s Trance just beat out Robert Redford’s The Company You Keep for the top spot.

Only three movies will make their debut this weekend, so I will take this opportunity to reveal my Most Anticipated Films of the Summer Season when I’m done previewing this week’s films.

If you are a fan of American baseball, then you’ll know that few people in that sport’s storied history played as pivotal a role as Jackie Robinson. In 1947, Robinson became the first African-American to break through the color barrier and play major league baseball, shaking up what had been an all-white sport up until that time and being an integral step in the Civil Rights Movement. Brooklyn Dodgers owner Branch Rickey saw the talent that Robinson had (and it was immense), and the courage of both men change the face of the sport forever.

Director Brian Helgeland (A Knight’s Tale) will tell Robinson’s film-worthy story in 42 (Warner Bros.), coinciding with the start of the baseball season (go D’Backs!). This biopic stars relatively unknown actor Chadwick Boseman (who had a supporting role in The Express) as Robinson, from his early years in the Negro Leagues to his rocky but triumphant success in the major leagues. Harrison Ford will play Branch Rickey, and the supporting cast also includes Christopher Meloni, Alan Tudyk, John C. McGinley and Lucas Black.

As I said, there are few baseball players in the history who are worthy of a biopic, and Robinson is one of them. People who love baseball, history, or true-to-life sports underdog stories should flock to 42 (which was Robinson’s jersey number, in case you were wondering), which will be opening in nearly 3,000 locations. For the meager price of $11 (in both leagues), I think you’ll get ten or eleven Top 5 points, three PTA, a very good Rating and an OW of $22M on its way to about $57M. That’s a very good return on investment.




As spoof franchises go, the Scary Movie series has been one of the most successful. The four films released thus far have racked up over $429M in cumulative gross, which is well over $100M in terms of average. It’s been seven whole years since the last installment, but hey, they revived the Scream and American Pie franchises after a long dormancy period, so why not? Ready or not, here comes Scary Movie 5 (Weinstein/Dimension), which will hit about 3,000 theaters on Friday.

Led by director Malcolm D. Lee (Undercover Brother, Soul Men), this chapter is the first not to feature Anna Faris and Regina Hall (or anyone from the previous movies, for that matter), who have moved aside to make way for Ashley Tisdale and Simon Rex, who play a couple plagued by a demon that has designs on their newborn baby. Much like January’s A Haunted House, it looks to be a send-up of found-footage films (like Paranormal Activity) and possession films (like, erm, The Possession). The film also features a host of celebrity cameos, which include Snoop Dogg, Mike Tyson, Usher, and (brace yourself) Charlie Sheen and Lindsay Lohan, the two biggest Hollywood train-wrecks of the last decade.

I cited the American Pie and Scream rehashes for a reason, because it’s a fact that both Scream 4 and American Reunion grossed far, far less than their predecessors. Add to that the fact that A Haunted House beat Scary Movie 5 to the punch by three months (and only made $40M itself) AND the fact that the spoof genre seems to be dying out, I think that Scary Movie 5 will be lucky to make even half of what Scary Movie 4 did back in 2006. I predict $16M/$39M, six Top 5, one PTA, and a lame Rating. Spend your $10 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office) elsewhere.




This week’s only limited release film is The Angels’ Share (IFC), a Scottish comedy-drama from director Ken Loach. The film stars Paul Brannigan as Robbie, a young scofflaw that is broke and in trouble with the law. He is also the father of a newborn son, and his determination to make a better life for his child is met with several roadblocks, least of which is his girlfriend’s family, who want him out of the picture for good. Granted community service by a lenient judge, he makes the acquaintance of several other hoods, who hatch a plan to steal some rare bottles of whiskey from a local distillery. Bad news if he gets caught…

To put it mildly, The Angels’ Share has been a hit with critics (see the RT rating below). It won several BAFTA Scotland awards, was nominated for the Palme d’Or at Cannes and won that festival’s coveted Jury Prize. It’s going to be showing in three theaters starting Friday. It’s also got a very decent Rating. Apart from the competition (Trance, The Company You Keep, The Place Beyond the Pines), I honestly don’t know why you wouldn’t want this film.




My predictions for the weekend of April 12-14, 2013:

1. 42 - $22 million
2. Scary Movie 5 - $16 million
3. The Croods - $15 million
4. G.I. Joe: Retaliation – $12 million
5. Evil Dead - $12 million

PTA race (Feb/Mar): The Angels’ Share, Trance, The Company You Keep, 42, The Place Beyond the Pines

PTA race (Apr): The Angels’ Share, Trance, The Company You Keep, 42, Scary Movie 5

Current RT/IMDb scores:

42 – N/A, N/A
Scary Movie 5 – N/A, N?A
The Angels’ Share – 93% (38/41 positive), 7.0 (7,372 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, again, only three films to talk about, all of which will come to theaters on April 19: Oblivion, a sci-fi action film starring Tom Cruise and Morgan Freeman, is the only wide-release film on the schedule. In limited release, we have French thriller In the House and Rob Zombie’s latest horror romp, The Lords of Salem.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Jamie Chung (The Hangover Part II, Sucker Punch) turns 30 on 4/10
Ryan Merriman (Final Destination 3, Pretty Little Liars) turns 30 on 4/10
Jennifer Esposito (Crash, Blue Bloods) turns 40 on 4/11
Adrien Brody (King Kong, Predators) turns 40 on 4/14


And now, my Most Anticipated Films of the Summer Season (May-Aug):

10. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones (8/23) – Okay, it does look part Twilight, part Sorcerer’s Apprentice, part a few other things, but I’m intrigued. And by the time late August rolls around, this will likely be the best thing on the docket for a good long while.

9. Turbo (6/17) – A snail that wants to be fast? I can totally get behind that idea. A snail that gets the fast-snail version of a radioactive spider-bite to make him fast enough to race in the Indy 500? I’m totally there. Plus, it’s DreamWorks, and they’ve been on a roll lately, so there’s a lot to like here.

8. Fast & Furious 6 (5/24) – I think it was the fourth segment in this series that it actually got COOL. Instead of just being about street racing, it graduated to full-fledged action status, with guns, fight scenes and Dwayne Johnson. This one looks to be another home run.

7. Monsters University (6/21) – I’ll admit, Monsters Inc. remains to this day one of my least favorite Pixar films. Which doesn’t mean I didn’t like it, I did, but it was a little too cutesy-poo in places. I’m not sure this is a prequel that we needed, but hey, it’s Pixar, which means I have to see it.

6. The Lone Ranger (7/3) – I’m sure we all had the same reaction when we heard Johnny Depp was going to be playing Tonto… namely, “Huh?” But I’ll admit, the trailer has me curious. Hammer is a good choice to play the title role, and if the combo of Depp/Verbinski can recapture some of the magic of the first Pirates film, this could be the start of a new franchise.

5. Elysium (8/9) – I’m going pretty much all on faith here. Given that it’s Neill Blomkamp, whose District 9 proved to be one of the most awesome films of the last decade, and the IMDb photo of Matt Damon, bald and badass, is a total selling point for me, that’s all I really need to buy a ticket. Can’t wait for the first trailer.

4. Man of Steel (6/14) – It’s been seven years since Bryan Singer totally effed up the chance to reboot the Superman franchise. I still have hope that Zack Snyder can make us all forget about Sucker Punch and do this right. I’m still not sold on Henry Cavill as an actor, but if Andrew Garfield can pull off Peter Parker, maybe Henry can pull off Clark Kent. Here’s hoping that this film doesn’t kill the character for another decade, especially as Batman is now done for a while.

3. Despicable Me 2 (7/3) – I wasn’t expecting to like Despicable Me as much as I did, but the latest trailer for the sequel is one of the funniest I’ve seen in a long time. Almost as much as I’m awaiting the Minions movie, Despicable Me 2 is easily my most anticipated animated film of the summer.

2. Iron Man 3 (5/3) – This is the first post-Avengers Marvel superhero film, it’s the conclusion of a trilogy, and a setup for the next Thor, Captain America and presumably Avengers film. How could I not want to see it? It looks almost Dark Knight dark, and a damn sight better than Iron Man 2 was. Plus, I love the fact that Guy Pearce and Ben Kingsley are playing the villains!

1. Star Trek Into Darkness (5/17) – I’m a lifelong Trekkie, and J.J. Abrams’ amazing reboot of a tired and flagging franchise was nothing short of miraculous. Starting the whole Star Trek universe off from scratch? That’s bold. And it worked like a charm. I’ve been waiting for this film the second the credits started rolling on the first one.

Also on my list: Epic, The Hangover Part III, Now You See Me, The Purge, World War Z, White House Down, The Heat, RED 2, Pacific Rim, R.I.P.D., The Wolverine, 300: Rise of an Empire, 2 Guns, Planes, Kick-Ass 2

Undecided: The Great Gatsby, The Internship, This is the End, The Conjuring, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, The Grandmaster, The World’s End, You’re Next, Closed Circuit, Getaway

Not a Change in Hades: Peeples, Grown Ups 2, The Smurfs 2, We’re the Millers, The To-Do List, One Direction: This is Us, Satanic

I'd be interested in hearing what y'all's most anticipated films of the summer are.

Later!

[Chienfantome]

I can see 42 doing much more than 57 millions, if it manages to open above $20M, which it should do.

Here's my Top 10 most anticipated films of the Summer 2013 :

- Pacific Rim, because Guillermo Del Toro and giant robots.
- Elysium, because Neil Blomkamp and alien war
- Ain't them bodies saints, because it looks just so good
- This is the end, because the cast makes me laugh already
- The World's End, because Edgar Wright and the Apocalypse
- Star Trek 2, because the first was so damn fine
- Before Midnight, because Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy have such chemistry
- Man of Steel, because of that teaser, and that trailer
- Despicable Me 2, because I just can't get enough of those minions
- Iron Man 3, because the second was so bad this one is bound to be good

They could have made that list :
Great Gatsby, Bling Ring, Monsters U, World War Z, White House Down, Red 2, Turbo.

[numbersix]

I was convinced 42 would be a very modest film until W made some valid points and an early tracking article suggested it was faring better than Moneyball and Trouble with the Curve. Tackling racial prejudice in sports movies can pay off very well, just look at how well Remember the Titans turned out. Hell even Radio made the 2013 equivalent of $69m. I think 42 will open to $20m and earn $60m.

If A Haunted House can open to 18m I think Scary Movie can do around the same.

As for PTA, I'm wary of The Angel's Share, mostly because Ken Loach isn't a surefire PTA hit. Trance and The Company You Keep are both expanding so that will give it a chance, but I'm not sure how well this will do in the long-run. I think next week has better options.

1. 42 - $20 million
2. Scary Movie 5 - $19 million
3. The Croods - $15 million
4. G.I. Joe: Retaliation – $12 million
5. Evil Dead - $11 million


As for the summer, going by the US release schedule I'm only really interested in Star Trek Into Darkness, maybe Man of Steel (depending on reviews), World War Z, Elysium, Kick-Ass 2, and The World's End. I'm sick of Marvel Films so I won't be seeing any more. In the UK there's an Alan Partridge film coming out which I'm hoping won't be a tired cash-in. In terms of limited releases I'd like to see Mud, Frances Ha, Before Midnight, The East, Byzantium, I'm So Excited, Fruitvale, Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Only God Forgives, and Grandmasters. I've already seen them but I recommend The Hunt and Sightseers, two of the best films I saw last year.

[Chienfantome]

Mmm, I hadn't noticed Only God Forgives was opening in the US this summer, in that case it has its place in my most anticipated films of the summer.
And I back Six' recommendation for Sightseers and The Hunt, two excellent films.

[transformers2]

1.42 $21 mil
2.Scary Movie 5 $15 mil
3.The Croods $14 mil
4.G.I Joe: Retaliation $13 mil
5.Evil Dead $11 mil

As for my anticipated for the summer:
10.The Lone Ranger
9.The World's End
8.Man of Steel
7.The Hangover Part III
6.300: Rise of an Empire
5.Iron Man 3
4.Fast and Furious 6
3.Kick-Ass 2
2.This is the End
1.Star Trek: Into Darkness

Also highly anticipating:
Now You See Me
World War Z
Only God Forgives
Elysium
Red 2
2 Guns

Will See, but not insanely excited for:
Aftershock
The Purge
The Internship
Monsters University
White House Down
Grown Ups 2
Pacific Rim
The Wolverine
We're the Millers

On the fence:
After Earth
The Heat
The Conjuring
R.I.P.D
The To Do List

[Walleye413]

Great question on anticipated movies. I'll go:
#1 - Star Trek: I am so excited for this one. I thought the reboot was amazing and think this one will even top it. It's my pick for the year.
#2 - Elysium: Love the talent on both sides of the camera. Really hope they nail it.
#3 - Heat: No one is funnier in America right now than Melissa McCarthy. And Sandra Bullock is a comedy titan. This should be gold.
#4 - Before Sunset. Loved the first two. Loved them. Waiting years for this sequel should be worth it.
#5 - Iron Man 3. The first two have been so good. Can the 3rd be a charm?
#6 - Fast 6. Fast Five was so good, and so surprisingly good. I have seriously high hopes for this one, and think it could be the surprise of the summer.
#7 - White House Down: If Fast 6 isn't the surprise of the summer than I pick this one. Tatum is Midas right now, and Jamie Foxx could make a fantastic President.
#8 - Much ado about nothing: Love this play, loved the Branagh version. So excited for this version. I love the backstory on how they filmed it, love Joss Whedon. Now hopefully they didn't screw it up
#9 - The Bling Ring: Sofia Coppola can be such an artist, I'm very intrigued by any movie of hers, so can't wait for this one.
#10 - Superman: It's gotta be good. Right?

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Scary Movie 5 - 3,402
42 - 3,003
The Angels' Share - 3

Also:
The Place Beyond the Pines - 514 (expansion)
Trance - 438 (expansion)
To the Wonder - 18
Disconnect - 15


Estimate for next week:

Oblivion - 3,800

[Brockster]

Angels looks like an even better pick now w/ the large expansions for Pines and Trance...has me rethinking my picks.

[silversurfer19]

In terms of US releases, my top ten most anticipated would probably be:

1. The World's End
2. Star Trek Into Darkness
3. Man Of Steel
4. Grandmasters
5. Pacific Rim
6. Before Midnight
7. I'm So Excited
8. The Great Gatsby
9. Elysium
10. Iron Man 3

With notable exceptions being Byzantium, The Iceman, Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Kick Ass 2, Monsters University and Blue Jasmine.

[Chienfantome]

Grandmasters is opening on wednesday in Paris, CAN'T WAIT TO SEE IT !! I've been anticipating this film for the past 3 years now.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

My Top Ten Most Anticipated for this summer:

10. Kick-Ass 2
9. Now You See Me
8. Monsters University
7. Pacific Rim
6. Despicable Me 2
5. Fast Six
4. Man of Steel (I hate the character of Superman, but the trailer is enough for me here)
3. This Is The End
2. Iron Man 3
1. Star Trek Into Darkness

And I'll also be seeing: The Hangover 3, White House Down, Turbo, The Heat, The Wolverine, RED2, 2 Guns, The To Do List, & Elysium.

We still haven't seen any footage of these, but I'm interested: We're The Millers, RIPD, 300: Rise of An Empire, The World's End.

Limited releases I want to see: The Bling Ring, The East, Fruitvale, The Way Way Back & The Spectacular Now.

And I'll see these only if they're free or I'm super bored: After Earth, The Internship, The Great Gatsby, The Lone Ranger, World War Z & Percy Jackson 2

I have no intention of ever watching these: Peeples, The Smurfs 2, Grown Ups 2, Epic & The Purge

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report


Ultimate FY (R2, R3, R4 - 40 players)

42 - 10, 12, 18
Scary Movie 5 - 2, 0, 0
The Angels' Share - 4, 4, 4


Ultimate HY (R2, R3, R4 - 35 players)

42 - 7, 13, 13
Scary Movie 5 - 2, 0, 0
The Angels' Share - 2, 3, 4


Box Office FY (R2, R3, R4 - 42 players)

42 - 8, 5, 5
Scary Movie 5 - 3, 0, 0
The Angels' Share - 0, 1, 0


Box Office HY (R2, R3, R4 - 35 players)

42 - 6, 2, 2
Scary Movie 5 - 2, 0, 0
The Angels' Share - 1, 0, 0


Bankrupts, 2nd Quarter (Ult, BO)

42 - 0, 1
Scary Movie 5 - 8, 9

[jas8382]

My Most Anticipated Films for the Summer
10. Much Ado About Nothing
9. Elysium
8. Kick Ass 2
7. Monsters University
6. Fast and Furious 6
5. This Is the End
4. Man of Steel
3. Iron Man 3
2. Pacific Rim
1. Star Trek Into Darkness

Honorable Mentions: The World's End, The Wolverine, The Conjuring, Fruitvale, The Great Gatsby

[silversurfer19]

Early Friday estimates:

1. 42 - $9.1m
2. Scary Movie V - $5.5m
3. Evil Dead - $3.2m
4. The Croods - $3.0m
5. G.I Joe: Retaliation - $2.9m

Looks like a $26m weekend for 42, while Scary Movie will bomb at $13.4m.

[Shrykespeare]

No surprise there. Scary Movie is 1) a tired franchise, 2) a spoof, which is a tired genre, 3) a spoof of found-footage horror films, which is also a tired genre, and 4) three months after another film that was exactly the same.