SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/5/13

[Shrykespeare]

G.I. Joe: Retaliation, led by the powerful trifecta of Tatum, Willis and Johnson, stormed to a box-office victory this past weekend, pulling in over $50M in its first four days. In second place, animated adventure film The Croods held strong, dropping only 39% and pulling in additional $26M, just ahead of Tyler Perry’s latest drama Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor, which debuted to a very impressive $22M. The other major debut, The Host, tanked with only $11M and a sixth-place finish. On the PTA front, The Place Beyond the Pines reigned supreme, well ahead of the second-place finisher, which was the documentary Room 237.

The first cuts in the 2013 Super Leagues are imminent, and for those of you who have survived, please waste no time in entering the next round, which should be up today (Sunday). Check your e-mails for the passwords. We will now turn our attention to the month of April, or, in film terms, “the dumping ground between spring and summer”. Six new films will lead off the April leagues, two in wide release and four in limited.

Up first is Evil Dead (TriStar), a horror film that is a remake of the 1981 Sam Raimi cult classic The Evil Dead. Taking the big chair is Uruguayan filmmaker Fede Alvarez (though Raimi is on board as a co-producer), who making his North American debut with this film, which stars Jane Levy (Suburgatory), Shiloh Fernandez (Jericho), Jessica Lucas (Cloverfield) and Lou Taylor Pucci.

Though the characters’ names have changed, the story remains the same: five friends go to a remote cabin, and happen upon a demonic book called “the Necromicon”, and instead of leaving well enough alone, they unwittingly unleash a demonic presence, which proceeds to terrorize and possess the youths until, ultimately, only one remains in a fight for survival.

A lot of horror movies look scary and turn out not to be, so any film that boasts on its poster “the most terrifying film you will ever experience” had better be as scary as advertised. The trailer sure does look creepy, and the buzz for this film has been tremendous. I’m not sure whether Evil Dead will have enough mustard to beat G.I. Joe: Retaliation’s second week, but I’m betting the race will be very close.

In the just-starting April leagues, Evil Dead will run you only $11 in Ultimate and $12 in Box Office. For that, I think you will get six Top 5, three PTA, a terrific Rating and an OW of $22M on its way to $48M. That’s a pretty good ratio, so if you need something to fit alongside the giants of May and June, this may be it. There won’t be another pure horror film until June’s World War Z, so there’s that as well.




It was nearly twenty years ago that Steven Spielberg adapted Michael Crichton’s bestselling book Jurassic Park into a big-screen film, and the results were truly amazing. It was the highest-grossing film of 1993, earning a whopping $357M, which was the most any film had ever earned up to that point. Two decades later, Jurassic Park 3D (Universal) is hitting theaters, giving the ol’ T-Rex a chance to scare a whole new generation of filmgoers.

You know the story: a scientist (Richard Attenborough), using state-of-the-art cloning techniques, is able to give many breeds of dinosaurs a new home on a remote tropical island, with the intent of creating a theme park. Prior to its opening, he brings a group of experts (Sam Neill, Laura Dern, Jeff Goldblum) to take in the place, but, of course, all hell breaks loose, and before you know it, the expedition becomes a fight for survival.

Ever since The Lion King’s 3D re-release two years ago, the return on 3D re-releases has gotten smaller and smaller, to the point where it almost seems like the enterprise isn’t even worth it. Still, Jurassic Park may be one to buck that trend, given that it’s still talked about today. Even so, however, I don’t imagine that an OW much more than $17M can be counted on. It’s priced just slightly below Evil Dead at $11 Ultimate and $10 Box Office, but for only a handful of Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA and $40M total, I wouldn’t take the risk. But if you opt to take it, just know that the film’s 8.0 Rating isn’t going to be changing.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s limited release films:

The Company You Keep (Sony Classics) ($5 Ult $3 BO) – This political drama is the latest project for Hollywood icon Robert Redford, who in this instance worked both sides of the camera. Based on the 2003 Neil Gordon novel of the same name, the phenomenal supporting cast includes Shia LaBeouf, Julie Christie, Susan Sarandon, Brendan Gleeson, Anna Kendrick, Terrence Howard, Richard Jenkins, Nick Nolte, Sam Elliott, Chris Cooper and Stanley Tucci. Wow. That’s eleven Oscar-nominated actors right there (and three winners).

In the politically-charged 1970’s, a militant group called The Weather Underground committed a series of bombings, including a bank robbery that left a guard dead. After Sharon Solarz (Sarandon) is arrested decades later, a young reporter (LaBeouf) follows a lead and tracks down another member of the WU, Jim Grant (Redford), a recently widowed father who is forced to go back on the lam once his identity becomes known.

Knowing Redford, it’s sure to be a multi-layered story, but much like Redford’s 2010 historical drama The Conspirator, the critics haven’t exactly lined up to praise this film. I might recommend this film on the cast alone, but that’s about it. It’s getting a good release number in five theaters, but as far as I’m concerned, it’s only the second-best PTA pick of the week. Speaking of…




Trance (Fox Searchlight) ($5 Ult $3 BO) – Few directors in Hollywood have a better reputation for quality than Danny Boyle. The man who has brought us such dramas as Trainspotting, Sunshine and 127 Hours (not to mention Best Picture winner Slumdog Millionaire) can usually be counted on to please both filmgoers and film critics alike.

The story centers on Simon (James McAvoy), a fine art auctioneer who steals a priceless painting while working in cahoots with a gang of thieves, but after hiding the loot suffers a head injury and loses his memory of where he hid it. When drastic measures of extraction by the gang’s vicious leader (Vincent Cassel) fail to bear fruit, he brings in a hypnotherapist (Rosario Dawson) to try to penetrate Simon’s amnesia.

Boyle is definitely adept at probing the psychological aspects of his dramas (Sunshine is a prime example), and I figure if any film this weekend has a chance to topple The Place Beyond the Pines from the #1 spot on the PTA chart, it’s this one. It’s got a great Rating and only four theaters that will be showing it, and that’s more than enough to recommend it.




The Brass Teapot (Magnolia) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This comedy from filmmaker Ramaa Mosley stars Juno Temple and Michael Angarano as Alice and John, a young married couple who are broke and tired of it. One day, they happen across a magical brass teapot that provides them with enormous wealth… every time they hurt themselves. O…kay. Well, no pain, no capital gain. Of course, it’s not long before the masochism reaches epic proportions, and then… I’ll stop right there.

It’s a novel idea, to be sure, but I have a feeling that audiences might find it a bit too slapsticky once the novelty wears off. The Brass Teapot will be bowing in two theaters this Friday, and it may get one or two PTA points, but that’s about it. Pass.




Simon Killer (IFC) ($2 Ult, $1 BO) – This is a neo-noir thriller from director Antonio Campos that stars Brady Corbet (Martha Marcy May Marlene) as Simon, a recent college graduate who sojourns to Paris after breaking up with his longtime GF. While drifting through the seedy underbelly of the City of Lights, he hooks up with a prostitute named Victoria (Mati Diop), and together they hatch a plot to blackmail one of her wealthy clients, a plan that ends up having unforeseen dangers for all involved.

Set to drop in only one theater, Simon Killer has gotten surprisingly good reviews so far, and has done since debuting at Sundance last year. It’s only $2, and I daresay of all the films given that bargain-basement price-tag, this is the best deal you’re going to get (if you passed on Room 237, that is).




My predictions for the weekend of April 5-7, 2013:

1. G.I. Joe: Retaliation – $23 million
2. Evil Dead - $22 million
3. Jurassic Park 3D - $17 million
4. The Croods - $16 million
5. Tyler Perry’s Temptation - $11 million

PTA race (all leagues): Trance, The Place Beyond the Pines, The Company You Keep, Evil Dead, Simon Killer

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Evil Dead – 79% (15/19 positive), 7.8 (2,618 votes)
Jurassic Park 3D: IMAX experience – 88% (51/58 positive), 8.0 (292,048 votes)
The Company You Keep – 57% (8/14 positive), 6.3 (776 votes)
Trance – 74% (35/46 positive), 7.6 (1,824 votes)
The Brass Teapot – 40% (2/5 positive), 6.2 (992 votes)
Simon Killer – 80% (12/15 positive), 6.6 (193 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, only three films to talk about, all of which will come to theaters on April 12: 42, a drama chronicling the life of baseball legend Jackie Robinson; Scary Movie 5, the latest chapter in the noted horror-spoof franchise; and, in limited release, The Angels’ Share.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Barry Sonnenfeld (director, the Men In Black series) turns 60 on 4/1
Roselyn Sanchez (Without a Trace, Rush Hour 2) turns 40 on 4/2
Adam Scott (Parks and Recreation, Step Brothers) turns 40 on 4/3
Jamie Bamber (Battlestar Galactica, Law & Order UK) turns 40 on 4/3
David Blaine (magician) turns 40 on 4/4
Max Gail (Barney Miller) turns 70 on 4/5
Wayne Rogers (M*A*S*H) turns 80 on 4/7

Later!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I read somewhere that Trance is going wide on the 12th, due to limited competition for the rest of the month. If true, that wouldn't make it the best PTA pick. It's been advertised very little and I can't see it doing to well wide.

Evil Dead - I think it'll do as well, or a bit better, than Cabin In The Woods. Maybe a total around 60M? Good pick for its price though.

(Off topic, but bravo to Shryke for all the hard work he does for all of us on this site. He does a write up every week, reports the Super Leagues regularly, AND tallies all those numbers for the Year Long Draft. All for very little reward. Well, THANK YOU Shryke, you're keeping us alive )

[numbersix]

Well, there is some buzz on Evil Dead so it seems the fanboy resentment is not in place for this one. It should do well for a horror. I'm not so convinced about Jurassic Park 3D. I think these re-releases are getting tired. If Titanic 3D could only open to 17m I'm not sure Jurassic Park can beat it.

PTA is a tough call, but it's obviously between Trance and The Company you Keep. It's hard to tell who will win, considering I've seen mixed reviews for both. I think they'll both beat Place Beyond the Pines as that's expanding by another dozen or so theatres.

1. G.I. Joe: Retaliation – $21 million
2. Evil Dead - $20 million
4. The Croods - $16 million
3. Jurassic Park 3D - $15 million
5. Tyler Perry’s Temptation - $10 million

[transformers2]

1. G.I Joe Retaliation $25 mil
2.Evil Dead $20 mil
3.The Croods $16 mil
4.Jurassic Park 3D $13 mil
5.Tyler Perry's Temptation $10 mil

[empire13]

1. Evil Dead $28 Mil
2. G.I. Joe $23 Mil
3. Jurassic Park $17 Mil
4. The Croods $16 Mil
5. Temptation $8 Mil

[numbersix]

It's tracking time

Evil Dead: RS almost high teens, MTC 23m, BTC 28m
Jurassic Park: RS mid teens, MTC 18m, BTC 18m

[Ron Burgundy]

If Evil dead pulls in over 70 mil, it seems like a must pick, actually the question is what is the ceiling for it? Like Shryke pointed out theres no other Horror movie til World War Z, so legs it may have. And on Jurassic Park, im almost tempted to pick it with that 8.0 imdb rating, but 3-5 top 5 points and zero PTA doesnt warrant that price tag, even it it made 50 mil

[W]

I know WWZ is a zombie film, but the trailers make it seem like its an actioner. Does a zombie automatically make a film "horror" and will "horror" fans primarily be the crowd at WWZ? I know that I'm possibly the least into straight-up horror here and I'll be first in line for WWZ. To be fair, I am a fan of the zombie film over all other kinds of horror.

[empire13]

It may just be me, but I thought the CGI shown in the trailer for World War Z looked awful!!

[Aquamann2001]

How is upstream color not in the game?

[numbersix]

How is upstream color not in the game?

It's being self-distributed so not only is it unlikely to garner many PTA points, it's also possible that BOM won't have figures to report!

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Evil Dead - 3025
Jurassic Park 3D - 2771
The Company You Keep - 5
Trance - 4
The Brass Teapot - 2
Simon Killer - 1


Estimates for next week:

Scary Movie 5 - 3,000+
42 - 2,900+
The Angels' Share - 3

[Brockster]

Based on early estimates Evil Dead looks like it could hit 30M this weekend. If that's the case I'm glad I stuck it on a lot of my slates. JP is on pace for 15-18M, followed by GI Joe, Croods, and either Tyler Perry or Olympus in 5th.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Glad I added Evil Dead to a lot of my April slates, as filler between the huge May/June movies.

Plus it should net quite a few Top 5 points. 5 this week, probably 4 next week (behind 42), then 3 or 4 the next (with only Oblivion opening), and a very iffy 1-2 (depending on how Oblivion holds/Pain & Gain opens).

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report:


Ultimate FY (R2, R3, R4 - 40 players)

Evil Dead - 9, 9, 13
Jurassic Park 3D - 5, 2, 2
The Company You Keep - 1, 2, 0
Trance - 9, 20, 18
The Brass Teapot - 2, 0, 1
Simon Killer - 0, 2, 3


Ultimate HY (R2, R3, R4 - 35 players)

Evil Dead - 8, 7, 13
Jurassic Park 3D - 3, 2, 1
The Company You Keep - 1, 0, 0
Trance - 9, 11, 12
The Brass Teapot - 2, 0 ,1
Simon Killer - 1, 2, 2


Box Office FY (R2, R3, R4 - 42 players)

Evil Dead - 14, 6, 6
Jurassic Park 3D - 2, 2, 2
The Company You Keep - 1, 2, 1
Trance - 5, 1, 3
The Brass Teapot - 0, 0, 0
Simon Killer - 2, 0, 1


Box Office HY (R2, R3, R4 - 35 players)

Evil Dead - 10, 5, 3
Jurassic Park 3D - 2, 1, 1
The Company You Keep - 1, 3, 1
Trance - 7, 3, 4
The Brass Teapot - 0, 0, 0
Simon Killer - 3, 1, 2