SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/22/13

[Shrykespeare]

As expected, Oz: The Great and Powerful retained the top spot at the box office, pulling in an additional $42M and running its ten-day total to nearly $150M. In second place was the Halle Berry thriller The Call, which pulled in a surprising $17M. Unfortunately, the teaming up of Steve Carell and Jim Carrey couldn’t muster any magic, and The Incredible Burt Wonderstone thudded into third place with only $10M. On the PTA front, Spring Breakers had an astounding score of $90K per theater, well ahead of other new indie films From Up on Poppy Hill, Ginger & Rosa and Reality.

It’s one of the tenets of this game to never underestimate family-oriented films, particularly animated ones. Despite the volume of films coming into theaters on a weekly basis, there’s still only so much that parents would approve of to take their kids to see. And really, ever since Wreck-It Ralph and Rise of the Guardians entered theaters back in November, the only animated film kids have been able to see has been Escape From Planet Earth, which has now earned over $50M despite lackluster reviews.

It’s worth noting that after this week, the next animated film on the docket won’t be until late May, when Epic bows in theaters. Which means that between now and then, you can expect The Croods (Fox) to be high on the list of films for families to see. The Croods is the latest film from DreamWorks Animation, which has fielded such success stories as the Shrek series, the Kung Fu Panda films and the Madagascar series. However, they are trying to rebound from the underwhelming results of Rise of the Guardians, which barely cracked $100M last winter.

From writer-directors Chris Sanders (who also directed the amazing How to Train Your Dragon) and Kirk De Micco comes this story about a family of prehistoric cavemen, led by the strict and overly-cautious Grug (Nicolas Cage) and his wife Ugga (Catherine Keener). Their teenage daughter Eep (Emma Stone) yearns to break free from their rigid and boring lifestyle, but she hasn’t long to wait: when their home is destroyed, the entire family must embark on a journey through a wondrous, rapidly-changing world in order to escape what just might be the end of the world (as they know it). Ryan Reynolds, Cloris Leachman, and Clark Duke also co-star.

Though the main characters don’t seem to be as crisply drawn as other DreamWorks characters (they ARE cavemen, after all), the world that is animated around them is another matter. A rich, visual tapestry of flora and fauna that may rival Avatar and The Mysterious Island seems to be in store for those that line up to see The Croods, and I’d venture that the 3D aspect will only help, as DreamWorks is one of the few animation studios that tends to get it right in that respect (the other being Pixar, of course).

Given its prospects, The Croods is certainly not cheap, and carries a price tag of $28 in the March Ultimate leagues ($29 in Box Office). Given how weak April looks, if it can hold well following next weekend’s list of films, look for The Croods to have a very healthy run over the next six weeks. I predict no fewer than eleven Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating around 7.0 and an OW of $41M on its way to $140M overall. So if you passed on Oz, I would seriously recommend taking this film.




Poor Gerard Butler. Seven years ago, Butler become one of the most sought-after actors in Hollywood after the immense success of 300. Sadly, following his pivotal role as King Leonidas, Butler’s career has not gone well: outside of being in one highly successful animated film (How to Train Your Dragon), one mildly successful action-thriller (Law Abiding Citizen) and one well-received drama (Coriolanus), his resume has been one clunker after another, especially his comedies (The Ugly Truth, The Bounty Hunter, Playing For Keeps). However, if there is one role that Butler just might call his “wheelhouse”, it’s the one he is playing in Olympus Has Fallen (FilmDistrict), which opens this Friday in just over 3,000 theaters.

From director Antoine Fuqua (Training Day) comes the first of two films this year with the theme “terrorists take over the White House”, the second being White House Down later this summer. In Olympus Has Fallen, Butler plays Mike Banning, a disgraced Secret Service agent who has been relegated to desk duty. However, when the President’s (Aaron Eckhart) abode is taken over by a North Korean terrorist (Rick Yune), Banning must put on his best John McClane and find a way to not only save the CIC’s life but also prevent an even bigger disaster. The terrific supporting cast also includes Morgan Freeman, Melissa Leo, Angela Bassett, Dylan McDermott and Ashley Judd.

The battle between Olympus and White House Down will most likely be won by the latter, which has a primo summer release date and just as strong a cast. It’s unfortunate that Olympus is running up against some staunch competition in not only The Croods and Oz, but also G.I. Joe: Retaliation, another gun-heavy actioner that will likely cause a massive dip in its numbers next week.

I’ll also point out that very few action-thrillers have even made a ripple this year. A Good Day to Die Hard has made over $65M on name recognition alone, but I don’t think Olympus will get that high. I’ll predict three Top 5 points, an average Rating and an OW of $16M on its way to $44M overall. For $13 (in both leagues), I would pass on this title, which is too bad, because it really does look pretty good.




Last up for the wide-release films this week is Admission (Focus Features), a comedy featuring Paul Rudd (This is 40) and Tina Fey (Date Night) in the leads and director Paul Weitz (American Pie, Little Fockers) in the big chair. The film is scheduled for a release platform of about 2,100 locations, and comes into theaters with very little fanfare or word-of-mouth.

Fey plays Portia Nathan, a straitlaced Princeton University admissions officer whose life changes when she visits an “alternative” high school run by a former classmate named John Pressman (Rudd) on the grounds of interviewing a gifted young man named Jeremiah (Nat Wolff) for possible admission to the prestigious university. When Portia begins to suspect that Jeremiah just might be the son that she gave up for adoption years before, the life that she lives begins to clash with the life she discovers she may have been mistaken to give up. Michael Sheen, Lily Tomlin and Wallace Shawn co-star.

Tina Fey hasn’t done a lot of movies outside of her SNL and 30 Rock TV gigs, but the few films she’s been in have done reasonably well (Baby Mama, Date Night, Megamind). And though Rudd is clearly the second bill here, he hasn’t yet shown that he can be an effective leading man, as the underwhelming totals for How Do You Know, Our Idiot Brother and Wanderlust will attest. On the other hand, there won’t be any more comedies until late April, so who knows?

Admission will run you $12 in both March Leagues, and that’s too much to spend on it in any league but Bankrupts. I predict no more than two Top 5 points, no PTA, a middling Rating and an OW of $9M on its way to $21M. Let’s just hope that the higher-profile comedies coming later in the year will duplicate what Identity Thief did, because that film is looking more like the exception than the rule.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited-release films:

Gimme the Loot (IFC) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – From writer/director Adam Leon comes this comedy that was showcased at both the Cannes and Sundance Film Festivals. It tells the story of two Bronx-born graffiti artists named Malcolm and Sophia (Ty Hickson, Tashiana Washington) that want what every struggling artist wants – recognition. However, when their latest masterpiece is buffed by a rival gang, the duo decide to throw caution to the wind and spray their mark on a well-known New York landmark… the apple that pops up at Shea Stadium when one of the Mets hits a home run. However, to pull this off, the pair needs to raise $500, and in doing so, they become embroiled in an adventure involving black market spray cans, stolen sneaker’s and a rich white girl’s necklace that may be their key to showcasing their talents.

Gimme the Loot is opening in only one theater this weekend. So far, not one critic that has seen it has panned it, so it could easily slip away with three or four points of its own, possibly more. However, there is less competition for indie films in April, so I wouldn’t fault you for exercising caution.




No Place on Earth (Magnolia) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This documentary from filmmaker Janet Tobias chronicles the harrowing story of the Stermer family, who were forced to flee the Nazis in 1942 Ukraine, taking refuge in a series of unexplored caves… and remaining there for over eighteen months, after the Nazis destroyed the opening to the cave. With no sunlight and no food, the family had to dig themselves out on their own. Wow. Tobias interviews the surviving members of the family, even taking them back to the same cave seven decades later.

No Place on Earth will be opening in two theaters this Friday before slowly expanding to double digits over the next few weeks. It’s a great story, to be sure, but documentaries are rarely PTA giants unless the subject matter is overly polarizing. This one may come away with a few points, but there’s certainly no guarantee of that.




Love and Honor (IFC) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This romantic war drama is the full-feature debut for actor Danny Mooney. The film follows two U.S. soldiers going on leave from the Vietnam War, Mickey and Dalton (Liam Hemsworth, Austin Stowell), but decide to head back to the States to try to convince Dalton’s girlfriend Jane (Aimee Teegarden) not to leave him. Things get even more awkward when Dalton finds out that Jane has fallen in with an anti-war activist (Teresa Palmer), and with the clock ticking before being declared AWOL, things get even more complicated.

Honestly, this looks like the kind of film that airs regularly on the Lifetime Network. It doesn’t look that interesting, and even though it’s in a good number of theaters (two), I would honestly be surprised if it got even one PTA point. The Rating alone would make me pass on it.




My predictions for the weekend of March 8-10, 2013:

1. The Croods - $41 million
2. Oz: The Great and Powerful – $24 million
3. Olympus Has Fallen - $16 million
4. Admission - $9 million
5. The Call - $7 million

PTA race (all leagues): The Croods, Gimme the Loot, No Place on Earth, From Up on Poppy Hill, Oz: The Great and Powerful

(If you're wondering where Spring Breakers is, it will be expanding to about 1,000 theaters, which pretty much spells the end of any more PTA points.)

Current RT/IMDb scores:

The Croods – 71% (5/7 positive), 6.9 (1,150 votes)
Olympus Has Fallen – N/A, N/A
Admission – 50% (5/10 positive), N/A
Gimme the Loot – 100% (12/12 positive), 6.8 (196 votes)
No Place on Earth – 100% (2/2 positive), 6.9 (31 votes)
Love and Honor – 50% (1/2 positive), 5.2 (1,046 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out the month of March – and the first round of the Super Leagues – with five new films all scheduled to debut on March 29: G.I. Joe: Retaliation, the sequel to the 2009 action romp; The Host, a sci-fi drama that is the latest adaption of a work by Twilight author Stephanie Meyer; Tyler Perry’s latest drama, Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor; and, in limited release, The Place Beyond the Pines and Starbuck.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Vanessa Williams (model/singer/actress, Eraser) turns 50 on 5/18
Kathy Ireland (supermodel) turns 50 on 5/20
David Thewlis (the Harry Potter films) turns 50 on 5/20
Bruno Ganz (Unknown) turns 70 on 5/22
Louie Anderson (comedian) turns 60 on 5/24
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) turns 40 on 5/24

Later!

[Buscemi]

The Croods $25 million (I've seen very little marketing and Oz already served the family crowd this month)
Olympus Has Fallen $12 million
Admission $7 million
Spring Breakers $2 million

Holdovers:
The Call drops 45-50%
The Incredible Burt Wonderstone drops 55-60%

[numbersix]

It'll be interesting to see how The Croods plays out. It's certainly a huge draw for younger families, and the first animated movie since Escape from Planet Earth. I can see it breaking 100m.

Olympus Has Fallen looks like a mid-range success. That said, Die Hard 5 didn't work, so not sure just how strong this will be.

Admission is a tough call. Will it be another Identity thief or another Wanderlust. I'm leaning towards the latter.

For PTA I think Gimmie the Loot should do okay, but Poppy Hill should hold well. The other two limited releases don't look great.

1. The Croods - $35 million
2. Oz: The Great and Powerful – $23 million
3. Olympus Has Fallen - $15 million
4. Admission - $8 million
5. The Call - $7 million

[Buscemi]

If Olympus Has Fallen reminds me of any film, it's the Red Dawn remake. Same distributor, same invasion theme and another film that seems to appeal to no one outside of militia fanatics (when I saw the trailer before Dead Man Down, some old guy behind me was amazed that something like that hadn't already happened).

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Spring Breakers should have no problem cracking the Top 5, buzz is big on it.

I was thinking Olympus would do well months ago, and I still think it could've - had it been marketed properly. It seems that the advertising budget has disappeared, I haven't seen a trailer or TV spot in weeks.

The Croods I expect to perform similarily to How To Train Your Dragon - modest opening for an animated film and small drops as WOM spreads.

1. The Croods - $39M
2. Oz - $25M
3. Olympus Has Fallen - $14M
4. The Call - $9M
5. Spring Breakers - $8M
6. Admission - $6M

[Buscemi]

However, The Croods is getting nowhere near the praise that How to Train Your Dragon got (also, the latter had way more marketing).

On Spring Breakers: it's a new distributor that's never gone wide before. Though the film did (surprisingly) well due to Korine's indie cred, that means nothing for mainstream audiences. Also, there's been very little marketing and Hudgens and Gomez have never had a successful movie sold around them (Remember Bandslam? What about Monte Carlo?).

[transformers2]

1.The Croods $27 mil
2.Oz $22 mil
3.Olympus Has Fallen $14 mil
4.The Call $9 mil
5.Admission $7 mil
6.Spring Breakers $5 mil

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Spring Breakers is marketing in the right places, I see it all over MTV and during primetime on other channels.

[Wrestler]

boosh do you really think that the pta of spring breakers will go from 87k>.2k I think that would be some sort of record

[numbersix]

Theoretically it's possible. The Master dropped from a PTA of 147K to 5K in its seconds week due to expanding too much too soon. Using that percentage Spring Breakers could potentially drop to a PTA of about 3.5K (i.e. make $3.5m this weekend). I think that's a bit too much, and I could see it making about $5m this weekend.

[Chienfantome]

It's too bad they open it so wide so quickly after such a great PTA weekend.

[numbersix]

Tracking for this weekend includes a new agency. Not sure how accurate they are, so take with a grain of salt

Croods: RS low 40s, BTC 40m, MTC 45m
Olympus: RS high teens, BTC 30m, MTC 22m
Admission: RS mid singles, BTC 8m, MTC 9m
Spring B: RS not available, BTC 7m, MTC 7m

[Chienfantome]

We'll definitely take them with a grain of salt with their $30M tracking for Olympius has Fallen.

[empire13]

Yeah, MTC is the most trustworthy. They're pretty accurate on the whole. So, I'm glad to see they have The Croods at $45 million. Hope that's a realistic number. Thanks again for posting these, six. Always like it when you do.

Also nice to see that they have Spring Breakers at $7 million. Only have it in the ultimate draft league, but I need some box office from it. Can't say I'm not hoping for a 10k average and a $10 million weekend, though.

[W]

I'm not saying they're wrong, but I would never have thought a Rudd/Fey comedy would track in the single digits. But after Carrell/Carey comedy barely making is to double digits it seems right.