SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/15/13

[Shrykespeare]

The box office finally got rolling this past weekend, as Oz: The Great and Powerful pulled in over $80M in its first three days, more than $20M more than the rest of the Top 20 COMBINED. Jack the Giant Slayer lost more than 63% of its audience, finishing a very distant second with just over $10M, and Identity Thief finished third to run its Top 5 point total to an astounding 21. On the PTA front, Oz destroyed all comers as well, finishing well ahead of indie films Stoker and Beyond the Hills.

After two months of underachieving, does this mean that theater seats will now be filled on a weekly basis? Well, probably not. There are only about two or three films that look like potential blockbusters coming out between now and Iron Man 3, and that’s still eight weeks away. C’est la vie. Six new films will be debuting this Friday, two in wide release and four in limited release.

From 1994-2004, there was not a bigger comedic actor in the movies than Jim Carrey. The rubber-faced Canadian funnyman had an impressive string of hits than included Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, Dumb and Dumber, Liar Liar, and Bruce Almighty. It was about that time that Carrey yielded the spotlight to Steve Carell, who struck gold in 2005 with The 40-Year-Old Virgin, and then followed it up with hits of his own like Over the Hedge, Get Smart, Date Night and Despicable Me. And the ironic thing is, the two men are very nearly the same age (they were born only seven months apart in 1962).

Though both of their stars may have waned in the last few years, they remain friends to this day, and are teaming up for the first time since 2008’s Horton Hears a Who! with The Incredible Burt Wonderstone (Warner Bros.), which will be debuting in over 3,100 theaters this Friday. It is the pair’s first live-action film together.

The story: Burt Wonderstone (Carell) and his partner Anton Marvelton (Steve Buscemi) have headlined a popular magic act in Vegas for many years. However, their costumes and theatrics have become stale, and an injury to Anton paves the way for a new, harder-edged and cooler magician named Steve Gray (Carrey) to take his place. Therefore, Wonderstone must seek out the magician that inspired his career (Alan Arkin) in order to find a way to reclaim the spotlight. Olivia Wilde, James Gandolfini and Brad Garrett co-star, and real-life illusionist David Copperfield has a cameo.

It’s been a terrible year for action films whose leads’ stars have fallen, but what about aging comedians? Granted, Carell and Carrey can’t really be put in the same hierarchy of irrelevance as Stallone and Schwarzenegger, but even the two of them teaming up won’t bring in nearly the audience that it would have seven years ago. And though the pair are still working steadily (Carell is coming up in sequels to Despicable Me and Anchorman, Carrey in sequels to Kick-Ass and Dumb and Dumber), I can’t see Burt Wonderstone being a huge hit.

This film will run you $17 in both March leagues, and that’s a lot to pay for a film that will never hit #1. At best, I see Burt Wonderstone hitting $18M on its OW, on its way to only five Top 5, perhaps one or two PTA and $62M. There’s every chance that it could take off like Identity Thief did, but then, the ratio of crap to not-crap has changed significantly since February. I would pass on this title.




It’s a fact of life that if you’re a female movie star, you need to be beautiful as well as talented in order to sustain “leading role” status. It’s also an unfortunate truism that when most American actresses hit the age of 40, leading roles come more and more infrequently. There are exceptions, of course, but unless you have the legendary reputation and resume (like Meryl Streep), or a beauty or charisma belying your years (Sandra Bullock or Diane Lane), then it’s also a fact of life that the roles you once got will be given to younger actresses that are just as pretty and talented as you were 10-15 years ago.

Take Halle Berry. In between being part of successful ensemble casts in films like Swordfish and the X-Men trilogy, Halle actually won an Oscar for her role in Monster’s Ball. But after appearing as a Bond girl in Die Another Day, her lead-actress career floundered after heading clunkers like Catwoman, Perfect Strangers and Things We Lost in the Fire. Now 46 years old, Berry gets her first leading role in nearly a decade with The Call (TriStar), which will bow in about 2,500 theaters starting Friday.

Berry plays Jordan Turner, a 911 operator whose spur-of-the-moment decision causes a young woman her life at the hands of a serial killer. Wracked with guilt, Jordan must take on a more hands-on role when another girl, a teenager named Casey (Abigail Breslin) is taken prisoner by the same killer. Morris Chestnut, Michael Imperioli, Jose Zuniga and Michael Eklund co-star, and Brad Anderson (The Machinist, Transsiberian) directs.

Whether Berry has a lot of acting years ahead of her is anybody’s guess. But a girl’s gotta eat, I suppose, and while her role in The Call may keep a roof over her head, it’s not exactly the type of film that will have her phone ringing off the hook with offers. It’s only $9 in Ultimate ($8 in Box Office), but I think that for that price, you’ll only get three Top 5, no PTA, and an OW of $11M on its way to $28M… numbers that are identical to Diane Lane’s similarly-themed 2008 thriller, Untraceable, oddly enough. Pass.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s four limited-release films:

Spring Breakers (A24) ($5 Ult, 5BO) – in this crime thriller, four collegians and BFFs (Selena Gomez, Vanessa Hudgens, Ashley Benson, Rachel Korine) decide to spice up their boring school life by robbing a convenience store in order to fund their Spring Break in Florida. After partying hearty as collegians are wont to do, the quartet find themselves arrested on drug charges, only to be bailed out by a mysterious hustler named Alien (James Franco, hot off Oz), who takes the girls on a seductive journey into the glamour and thrall of the dangerous lifestyle they’ve chosen.

One critic said it better than I ever could: “If Michael Mann was to take a lot of hallucinogenics and shoot a Girls Gone Wild video, it might look something like this.” Reviews have been mostly favorable, believe it or not, and the User Rating isn’t that bad either. Scheduled to debut on only two screens before expanding to over 500 next week, Spring Breakers may indeed become a surprise hit… but I have my doubts. I’d exercise caution and pass on this.




Ginger & Rosa (A24) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – Also from A24 comes another film with young actresses taking center stage, but there the similarities end. Ginger & Rosa is the latest film from acclaimed director Sally Potter (Orlando), and it stars Super 8’s Elle Fanning and Beautiful Creatures’ Alice Englert in the titular roles. They, too, are inseparable friends who are growing up in London circa 1962, right at the point when the Cold War met the sexual revolution. Unhappy with the prospect of following in their mothers’ domesticated footsteps, the two decide to grab life by the horns, even though the spectre of global holocaust threatens to tear their friendship apart. Annette Bening, Christina Hendricks, Oliver Platt, Alessandro Nivola and Timothy Spall co-star.

Ginger & Rosa made out like a bandit at last year’s British Independent Film Awards, taking home three trophies, including Best Actress (Fanning) and Supporting Actress (Englert). So… good cast, good director, good pedigree. I would so love to recommend this film, but without knowing just how many theaters will be showing it, I can’t quite recommend it. That may change later on in the week, however. With Stoker, The Gatekeepers and No fading into the PTA sunset, it’s anyone’s guess what the next great PTA pick will be. Don’t know if it will be this one, but it is possible that it will do well.




From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This animated film from Studio Ghibli is the latest from the legendary father/son duo of Hayao and Goro Miyazaki, who between them are responsible for acclaimed films such as Princess Mononoke, Spirited Away and Howl’s Moving Castle. Unlike their last release, 2008’s Ponyo, it doesn’t look like Poppy Hill will be given a wide release platform, though I could be wrong.

Set in Yokohama, Japan in 1963, the film centers on the innocent budding romance between high-schoolers Umi and Shun, at a time when Japan is still recovering from the devastation of WWII and preparations to host the Olympic Games of 1964. As the two work together to save a dilapidated clubhouse from demolition, a buried secret from their past threatens to pull the newfound friends apart. The English-dubbed version of the film stars Sarah Bolger and Anton Yelchin, along with Beau Bridges, Jamie Lee Curtis, Bruce Dern, Christina Hendricks and Isabelle Fuhrman.

As good as they are, a beacon to the fading art of hand-drawn animation, Studio Ghibli’s films have never been great PTA producers nor big moneymakers, largely because their release platforms haven’t allowed them to be. From Up on Poppy Hill may be the exception, as I see no indication that it will be going wide any time soon. PTA may definitely be feasible, though again, it will depend entirely on how many theaters will be showing it. Keep a watchful eye out, and you may have a winner here.




Reality (Oscilloscope) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This dramatic comedy comes to U.S. shores from Italy. Led by BAFTA-winning director Matteo Garrone (Gomorrah), Reality stars Aniello Arena as Luciano, an amiable fishmonger who becomes obsessed with becoming a contestant on the Italian version of the reality show Big Brother. In fact, Luciano’s obsession becomes so all-encompassing that it soon starts to warp and distort his own perceptions of reality (an interesting double-meaning).

If this were a French film, I would recommend it simply because quirky French films like this tend to be good PTA-producers. There have not been nearly as many Italian films to use as a point of comparison, which puts me in a quandary. Still, to American audiences, Europe is Europe, and this film could easily spring up and grab a few PTA points. Then again, Reality could, well, bite. It’s only $3, but there are just as many limited-release prospects coming in April, when the wide-release picks won’t be quite as prominent. Your choice.




My predictions for the weekend of March 8-10, 2013:

1. Oz: The Great and Powerful – $45 million
2. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone – $18 million
3. The Call – $11 million
4. Jack the Giant Slayer – $6 million
5. Identity Thief – $5 million

PTA race (all leagues): Oz: The Great and Powerful, From Up On Poppy Hill, Ginger & Rosa, Reality, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone

Current RT/IMDb scores:

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone – 40% (4/10 positive); 7.6 (194 votes)
The Call – N/A, N/A
Spring Breakers – 67% (10/15 positive); 6.8 (2,722 votes)
Ginger & Rosa – 60% (21/35 positive); 5.7 (910 votes)
From Up on Poppy Hill – 67% (2/3 positive); 7.2 (3,464 votes)
Reality – 75% (12/16 positive); 6.7 (1,007 votes)


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, six new films head into theaters, all set to debut on March 22, including: The Croods, a prehistoric cartoon starring Emma Stone and Nicolas Cage; Olympus Has Fallen, an action drama starring Gerard Butler and Morgan Freeman; Admission, a comedy starring Tina Fey and Paul Rudd; and, in limited release, Gimme the Loot, No Place on Earth and Love and Honor.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Barbara Feldon (TV's Get Smart) turns 80 on 3/12
Ron Jeremy (adult film star) turns 60 on 3/12
Michael Caine (The Dark Knight) turns 80 on 3/14
Quincy Jones (legendary music producer) turns 80 on 3/14
Sly Stone (R&B musician) turns 70 on 3/15
David Cronenberg (director, A History of Violence) turns 70 on 3/15
Isabelle Huppert (Amour, The Piano Teacher) turns 60 on 3/16

Later!

[Buscemi]

Oz had a very average B+ on Cinemascore (same as Jack the Giant Slayer) so I can't see it holding very well. I'll say $35 million for the second weekend.

With the openers, I will take The Call for the upset. It's a strong choice for teens and should have no problem bringing in audiences in the big cities. I will say $17 million for the weekend. Meanwhile, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone has a good cast and marketing has been there but when's the last time there has been a successful film about illusionists? Also, the fact that Jim Carrey isn't the star could hurt the film. $15 million for the weekend.

On the limited front, I'd take both Miyazaki and Garrone's films. Ginger and Rosa is basically being dumped by its distributor and Spring Breakers is definitely not a film for the arthouse crowd (and I can't see teens being interested in it, even with the casting of two teen idols and the Skrillex score). Meanwhile, the other two have strong selling points and what promises to be slow but steady expansions.

[Chienfantome]

Reality won the Grand Prix at Cannes last year, and Garrone's last film is Gomorra, very highly rated, so if it opens very limited, I can see it bringing some interesting PTA points.
Miyazaki's film is a very nice animated film, if any of you guys have the opportunity to see it, I can only recommend it for you, it's better than any of the US animated films of last year (in my opinion of course).
As for Spring Breakers, it opened last wednesday over here, and it's on its way to being a surprise success. In fact it finished first on its opening day in Paris, ahead of bigger films. It could do great in the US too.

[numbersix]

Tough call for Burt. Could be a bomb if the jokes don't land with the audience, but it could be another 21 Jump St. With Carell and Carrey playing against each other, though, I'm going to lean on the upper side of this. As for The Call, Berry cannot draw in an audience, especially when it's a generic thriller like this. PErfect Stranger is a good comparison, but that had Bruce Willis, so I could see The Call getting less.

PTA's a tough one. I think Ginger and Rosa (which I worked on for a bit) will fail to get more than 1 PTA point at best. The reviews are too lacklustre, and Sally Potter's name doesn't hold much weight. Spring Breakers should do well due to the buzz, decent reviews, and the "sexy" premise and cast, though its expansion next week probably doesn't make it worth picking up. From Up on Poppy Hill should do well, as it seems it's only out in 2 theatres in NY this weekend, 1 more the following, and 9 more the weekend after. Reality could get a point or two, but the mixed reception since Cannes won't help it. I think it'll play out like: Oz, Poppy Hill, Spring Breakers, Reality, Burt Wonderstone.

1. Oz: The Great and Powerful – $42 million
2. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone – $25 million
3. The Call – $9 million
4. Jack the Giant Slayer – $5 million
5. Identity Thief – $4 million

[Buscemi]

Perfect Stranger is a decent comparison to The Call but that film opened against six other movies while The Call has almost no competition.

Meanwhile, I found out The Call is rated R (I could have sworn it was PG-13) so I will lower my prediction to $13 million. But it should still do well in the cities while Burt gets the smaller markets.

[transformers2]

1.Oz: The Great and Powerful $46 mil
2.The Incredible Burt Wonderstone $18 mil
3.Jack the Giant Slayer $6 mil
4.The Call $5 mil
5.Identity Thief $5 mil

[numbersix]

Tracking is a surprise this week...

Burt W: RS low 20s, MTC 13m
The Call: RS low teens, MTC 15m

And MTC is usually more accurate.

[W]

Dead Man Down did $5.5 m and almost no one knew about it, so The Call should hit about $7.5 m and then drop like a horror movie the next weekend.

[Buscemi]

But of course, when was the last film that had a hook for black audiences? If A Haunted House could manage an $18 million opening, The Call should manage a low to mid teens opening.

[Chienfantome]

I still have a hard time picturing a Halle Berry thriller doing better than a Steve Carell / Jim Carrey comedy. But maybe the weekend will surprise.

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts


The Incredible Burt Wonderstone - 3,160
The Call - 2,507
Upside Down - 11
Spring Breakers - 3


Estimates for next week

The Croods - 3,900+
Olympus Has Fallen - 3,000+
Admission - 2,100
The Sapphires - 4
Love and Honor - 2
Gimme the Loot - 1

[Chienfantome]

I was hoping Upside Down would open in more theaters than that for the sake of my yearly draft slate, but it was wishful thinking for the get-go.
Spring Breakers will easily crush the PTA competition this weekend. Next weekend, watch out for Gimme the loot...

[Buscemi]

Spring Breakers will easily crush the PTA competition this weekend. Next weekend, watch out for Gimme the loot...

I wouldn't say that. Has a Harmony Korine film ever been financially successful? Also, we saw how badly marketed A24's first film was (and Spring Breakers hasn't had much in the way of marketing either, instead depending on the French trailer to gauge interest).

[Chienfantome]

I can't say I'm aware of the US marketing, but I'm still pretty sure it will crush the PTA competition this weekend.

[numbersix]

Korine's Mister Lonely opened with a PTA of 16K. If Spring Breakers gets similar it should do well, and it should considering it has more buzz than that film, and arguably a more marketable cast (i.e. hot girls in bikinis). It played well in festivals so I could see it doing incredibly well in terms of PTA. That said, it's up against a Ghibli movie, so it's a tough call in terms of who will win. I think Spring Breakers will take top spot this weekend but won't get any more afterwards.