SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/15/13

[Chienfantome]

Especially since it's announced to be upgraded to hundreds of theaters the following weekend. And like Six says, hot girls in bikinis in a well-received festival film can't go wrong in terms of PTA when it's opening in only 3 theaters.

[Buscemi]

But do you think the arthouse crowd will attend a film headlined by tween-appealed actors that looks like a 90 minute music video? Franco doesn't have the arthouse cred he used to and Hudgens and Gomez have never had it (in fact, neither actor has done a film aimed for the adult or college aged crowd). Meanwhile, Mister Lonely had an arthouse darling at the time in Samantha Morton and Diego Luna had an arthouse hit in The Motorcycle Diaries. And if audiences want hot girls in bikinis, they will go to the Internet.

Also, Six's claim that hot girls in bikinis in a film with positive reviews makes money makes me think of Piranha 3-D. Positive reviews (the Rotten Tomatoes rating was a 74%) and hot girls in bikinis but it flopped at the box office.

[numbersix]

Piranha 3D isn't a great comparison. Yes, it has hot girls in bikinis but it's not an arthouse movie and never tried to be. It also opened in 2400 theatres.

[Chienfantome]

But we're talking of a film opening in 3 theaters only, Boosch. Piranha was opening in thousands more.
And I can assure, given the huge success of the film in France, including in arthouse theaters, that YES, the arthouse crowd will attend a film like Spring Breakers. And cinephiles like their hot young girls in bikinis on the big screen much more than on a small internet screen

[Buscemi]

But in France, the film got a much bigger ad campaign. In the US, there has been almost no marketing (I don't even recall a US trailer ever being released and a poster wasn't released until a month before opening). And once again, there is no hook for highbrow audiences on this one. You are not going to see the typical big city audience watching a over-saturated and gratuitously violent and sexual movie with Disney regulars desperately trying to shed their good girl images. In fact, I can't really see what kind of audience would watch this film (other than perverted college-age kids who think My Little Pony is amazing).

One last thing: has there ever been a successful movie where the main purpose was to shed the good girl image of a teen star?

[Chienfantome]

I can only feel misunderstood as a film buff anticipating the vision of this film in theater in only a few hours

[numbersix]

Considering the critics noted the satire in the film, I think it's fair to say the arthouse audience will have interest. And there have been plenty of trailers around, including this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgWBvRhRaEk

[Buscemi]

I can only feel misunderstood as a film buff anticipating the vision of this film in theater in only a few hours

But of course, you see everything and anything. I bet you'd watch The Oogieloves if given the chance.

[Chienfantome]

I would certainly not. Every wednesday, between 10 (the low weeks) and 20 (the busy weeks) films open in Paris, and I only see 5 or 6 of them. It sure is high, but it's certainly not everything, believe it or not, I still carefully choose the films I go see
And Spring Breakers have solid reviews in France, by the way.

[silversurfer19]

Diego Luna was in Motorcycle Diaries? Sure you're not thinking of the better looking and generally more successful actor from Y Mama, Gael Garcia Bernal? Diego Luna has never really had much of an art house following, so I highly doubt his participation in Mister Lonely had any impact on it's success. It looked an intriguing movie (though it failed to deliver), and Spring Breakers looks the same. I doubt it will be a PTA goldmine, especially as it expands next weekend, but I am fairly certain there is enough buzz surrounding it to do well this weekend at least. It's been advertised to hell over the internet, and with a recognisable cast, good reviews and a buzz, it will do fine.

Will it beat From Up On Poppy Hill? I'm not sure, it's the first time GK Kids have released a Ghibli movie, so I'm not sure how the marketing for that has been compared to how Disney marketed them, it will probably be close.

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report


Ultimate Full Year (R1, R2, R3 - 45 players)

Burt Wonderstone - 7, 3, 0
The Call - 0, 1, 1
Spring Breakers - 2, 2, 8
Ginger & Rosa - 0, 0, 1
Poppy Hill - 0, 1, 4
Reality - 1, 2, 1


Ultimate Half Year (R1, R2, R3 - 43 players)

Burt Wonderstone - 8, 3, 1
The Call - 0, 1, 2
Spring Breakers - 2, 2, 8
Ginger & Rosa - 0, 0, 0
Poppy Hill - 1, 1, 4
Reality - 2, 2, 1


Box Office Full Year (R1, R2, R3 - 47 players)

Burt Wonderstone - 4, 2, 1
The Call - 0, 3, 5
Spring Breakers - 5, 4, 2
Ginger & Rosa - 0, 0, 0
Poppy Hill - 1, 0, 0
Reality - 1, 1, 1


Box Office Half Year (R1, R2, R3 - 44 players)

Burt Wonderstone - 6, 3, 2
The Call - 0, 2, 5
Spring Breakers - 3, 5, 5
Ginger & Rosa - 0, 1, 1
Poppy Hill - 2, 0, 0
Reality - 0, 1, 1


Bankrupts Leagues, 1st Quarter (Ult - 11 players; BO - 13 players)

Burt Wonderstone - 2, 2
The Call - 2, 4

[silversurfer19]

Looks like Boussh called this one correct. Burt Wonderstone has bombed and will be lucky to hit $11m for the weekend, while The Call is heading for $17m in quite a number of locations less. Oz will of course top the weekend with a little over $40m after an $11m Friday.

Latest numbers:

1. Oz The Great And Powerful - $11m Friday/ $40m Weekend
2. The Call - $5.7m Friday/ $17m Weekend
3. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone - $3.5m Friday/ $11m Weekend

Surprised Burt bombed quite so bad with the talent on board, but I guess magic really doesn't sell these days! Luckily I avoided it on all slates. Very strong numbers for The Call, however. Didn't see anything near those figures.

[Geezer]

Whew, I'm really glad I avoided Burt Wonderstone on all slates. Just always looked far too volatile to me, and always figured Oz would still be crushing everything in its path.

[numbersix]

I'm shocked about this weekend's estimates. I thankfully avoided Burt Wonderstone. Initially I thought it would be a hit. Then I saw the awful posters, and the advance tracking warded me off. However, I did not see The Call doing well. Since when could Halle Berry draw an audience?

[JohnErle]

I had Burt Wonderstone pencilled in as a Bankrupts pick since I joined the league in mid-January, so I'm glad to see I was right on that one. I'm a little surprised on The Call, but it still could be heavily front-loaded and over-estimated by Nikke.