SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/8/13

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Weren't we saying the same things about Wreck It Ralph? Poor voicing cast. Poor marketing. Looks terrible. Well, it's still in theaters and at $187+ million in box office. Not saying The Croods will do that, but...

I think that was mostly Busc, and nowhere near the consensus.

[numbersix]

Oz will get hardcore fans bemoaning it, and it certainly has less marketing appeal than Alice in Wonderland. But that still means it will blast the competition until the summer comes along.

I don't see Dead Man Down doing much. It doesn't have the stars, it doesn't have an angle.

As for PTA, I think Beyond the Hills shoul do very well indeed (the director's last film was hailed as a landmark arthouse movie, even if I thought it was dull).


1. Oz: The Great and Powerful - $75 million
2. Jack the Giant Killer - $12 million
3. Dead Man Down - $7 million
4. Identity Thief - $6 million
5. 21 and Over - $5 million

[silversurfer19]

I was talking to Helena and a few friends the other day re. Oz. We are all of an age where we grew up with The Wizard Of Oz and love it. However, we all know that no matter what this movie was, no matter how good it was, it could sweep the Oscars next year for all we care. IT WILL NEVER TOUCH THE WIZARD OF OZ. It's impossible, just like the Star Wars prequels. Is it blasphemy for even trying? Well, no, it just won't ever match those classic heights, and it would be unfair to compare it in that way. However, no matter how much any of us believed the movie couldn't compare to The Wizard Of Oz, each and every one of us will still go see this movie. I've seen 13 movies released in 2013 so far, and I can say that just two of them have been remotely decent (Lore and Warm Bodies). It has literally been a shitfest so far this year, and it has left Oz with a huge opportunity to sweep the board and make a ton of cash. I believe it will. I don't know any demographic that does not want to see the movie (my parents, each a year either side of 60 are desperate to see it), and with a good marketing push, which is certainly evident over here, I think it will do fine.

[Buscemi]

The Hobbit did make $300M, which is success no matter what people were expecting. I'm curious, Boosh... do you think the Hobbit would have made more money or less if it had come out BEFORE the LOTR film trilogy?

It did make $300 million but people expected a lot more from it. The problem came from the fact that critics viewed it as nothing more than a Phantom Menace-type film (which has been the negative stigma for prequels since that film was released) and it led a large number of people to avoid it (some people would claim it was the high-frame rate but only a fraction of theatres played that version and most theatres had multiple versions of the film).

Had it been released in the 1990's, more people would have seen it though it wouldn't have hit $300 million (due to lower ticket prices then).

[Brockster]

Dead Man Down sounds like a yoga position to me.

[transformers2]

1.Oz: The Great and Powerful $80 mil
2.Jack the Giant Slayer $14 mil
3.Dead Man Down $9 mil
4.Identity Thief $6 mil
5.21 and Over $5 mil

[englishozzy]

1. Oz - $80 million
2. Jack the Giant Killer - $11 million
3. Dean Man Down - $8 million
4. Identity Thief - $5 million
5. 21 and Over - $4 million

[empire13]

Call it my gut, but I'm starting to have doubts about Oz. I'm feeling some cracks forming in the foundation. Not the greatest reviews. A pedestrian IMDB rating. And, I'm not sure it looks all that fantastic. Blasphemy, I know. We'll see. I just wanted to say something before its release. I didn't want to be accused of stating the obvious after the fact (that is if it under-performs).

[empire13]

It occurs to me that I should back up my statements with a prediction. That presents two problems: I hate being wrong, and I'm a big wuss! That being said, I'm thinking Oz has an OW of less than $50 million and a cumulative take of less than $150 million. I don't know about y'all, but taking into account the preliminary estimates, I think that's a fairly bold prediction.

And, I hope I'm wrong, because I just can't ditch it on any of my slates because of its opportune release date and breakout potential.

[Buscemi]

Wow, an opening weekend below my $50 million prediction. However, I can't see a multiplier of 3 (I'm expecting a 2.7 multiplier). Too many fantasy and genre-type films in the market.

[numbersix]

Tracking is...

Oz: RS mid 60s, MTC mid 70s
DMD: RS mid singles, MTC mid singles

[englishozzy]

It occurs to me that I should back up my statements with a prediction. That presents two problems: I hate being wrong, and I'm a big wuss! That being said, I'm thinking Oz has an OW of less than $50 million and a cumulative take of less than $150 million. I don't know about y'all, but taking into account the preliminary estimates, I think that's a fairly bold prediction.

And, I hope I'm wrong, because I just can't ditch it on any of my slates because of its opportune release date and breakout potential.

Haha....y'all

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Oz: The Great and Powerful - 3,912
Dead Man Down - 2,188
Don't Stop Believin' - 15
Beyond the Hills - 3
ABC's of Death - N/A


Estimates for Next Week:

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone - 3,100+
The Call - 2,500
Spring Breakers - 2

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report


Ultimate Full-Year (R1, R2, R3 - 45 players)

Oz: The Great and Powerful - 40, 33, 22
Dead Man Down - 0, 2, 1
The ABC's of Death - 0, 0, 0
Beyond the Hills - 10, 11, 15
Don't Stop Believin': Everyman's Journey - 0, 0, 0


Ultimate Half-Year (R1, R2, R3 - 43 players)

Oz: The Great and Powerful - 39, 34, 18
Dead Man Down - 0, 2, 1
The ABC's of Death - 1, 0, 0
Beyond the Hills - 7, 11, 8
Don't Stop Believin': Everyman's Journey - 0, 0, 1


Box Office Full-Year (R1, R2, R3 - 47 players)

Oz: The Great and Powerful - 39, 32, 19
Dead Man Down - 0, 4, 0
The ABC's of Death - 0, 1, 0
Beyond the Hills - 3, 1, 1
Don't Stop Believin': Everyman's Journey - 1, 0, 0


Box Office Half-Year (R1, R2, R3 - 44 players)

Oz: The Great and Powerful - 41, 33, 17
Dead Man Down - 0, 2, 0
The ABC's of Death - 0, 0, 0
Beyond the Hills - 3, 1, 1
Don't Stop Believin': Everyman's Journey - 0, 0, 0


Bankrupts, 1st Quarter (Ult - 11 players; BO - 13 players)

Dead Man Down - 0, 1

[Shrykespeare]

bumped to next page