SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/1/13

[Shrykespeare]

Identity Thief's slow descent was enough to grab first place at the box office this past weekend ($14.1M), running its Top 5 total to fourteen and its box office total to over $93M. It is virtually assured to become 2013’s first blockbuster sometime in the next week. Finishing in second was newcomer Snitch ($13M), which finished just ahead of returning films Escape From Planet Earth ($11.0M), Safe Haven ($10.6M) and A Good Day to Die Hard ($10.0M). The other newcomer, Dark Skies, missed the Top 5 entirely with only $8.8M. On the PTA front, foreign films continued to dominate as No and The Gatekeepers took first and second place once again.

This past weekend, the 2012 Mini-Supers finished up. Which means, as we turn the calendar to March, we are now fully engulfed in the 2013 Super Leagues, and I’m looking forward to a full year’s worth of competition. The March leagues have now been created, so watch your inboxes for the passwords. It also means, after a relatively sparse schedule for January (14 films) and February (15 films), we can anticipate a blitzkrieg of new movies, given that no fewer than 29 movies will be opening for game purposes over the next five weeks. Don’t say I didn’t warn you!

A whopping seven of those films will be bowing on the very first day of the month, including four in wide release and three in limited release. The most notable of the big films this week is Jack the Giant Slayer (Warner Bros.), the latest outing for director/producer Bryan Singer, who was behind the camera for the first two chapters in the X-Men trilogy a decade ago, not to mention The Usual Suspects, one of the greatest crime dramas of all time. This is his first time in the big chair since 2008’s very decent war drama Valkyrie. He is once again teaming up with screenwriter Chris McQuarrie, who helped Singer on both Usual Suspects and Valkyrie.

Updated that retell, reimagine or completely rewrite classic fairy tales have become all the rage, it seems. In addition to the incredibly popular TV shows Once Upon a Time and Grimm, we have had big screen adaptations of fairy tales including Snow White and the Huntsman ($155M) and, more recently, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters ($53M). Given the release date, the competition and the marketing, I expect Jack to end up somewhere in between the two.

Including the whole “beanstalk” angle that the film will incorporate, the story is this: young farmhand Jack (Warm Bodies’ Nicholas Hoult) accidentally opens a gateway to the world of Giants, reigniting a war between Giants and humans that ended centuries before, and Jack must fight to save not only himself but also his kingdom, and, of course, a princess (Eleanor Tomlinson). Can’t have a fairy tale without a princess, can we? The excellent supporting cast includes Stanley Tucci, Ewan McGregor, Bill Nighy, Ian McShane and Eddie Marsan.

This one is tough to call. Snow White had the benefit of a June release, a more famous (though less talented) actor in the title role, and less competition in the same genre. Jack the Giant Slayer will run smack into Oz: The Great and Powerful next week, which is poised to perhaps turn in Alice in Wonderland numbers (or close to it). So where does that leave Jack? Personally, I think it will do well, but compared to some of the biggies that are coming in the coming weeks, it will pale by comparison.

Jack (which is scheduled for a 3,500-theater release) is priced at $21 in the March Ultimate leagues ($22 in Box Office), and that’s a big chunk of change. For that kind of dough, you’re expecting a blockbuster, and unlike Oz, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation, I don’t think Jack will quite get there. I predict an OW of $27M, on its way to eleven Top 5 points, four PTA, a Rating around 6.8 and $82M. Hoult’s an up-and-coming actor, but his star isn’t as high as that of Bella Swan and Thor. Pass on this one.




In addition to big-budget epics, the first weekend of March also seems to be the week for the inevitable teenage spring-break themed party film. Last year, Project X made a modest splash, bowing with an OW of $21M (against The Lorax) on its way to $54M total. That film was brought to theaters by some of the producers of The Hangover, and whaddaya know, the screenwriters of The Hangover, Jon Lucas and Scott Moore, are making their directorial debut with 21 and Over (Relativity), which will be debuting in roughly 2,500 locations this Friday.

Also like Project X, 21 and Over will feature a bevy of little-known actors to tell a story of a pivotal point in every young man’s life… turning 21 years of age, which is significant because it means that one can be plastered out of his mind and not be breaking the law doing it. Of course, all the things that one does while plastered out of one’s mind quite often crosses that boundary into illegality, and weirdness. Such will be the case for straight-A student Jeff Chang (Justin Chon), who is promised the night of his life by his two best friends Casey and Miller (Skylar Astin and Miles Teller), and, judging by the trailer, he will get it… assuming he doesn’t end up in jail… or traction.

There is no doubt that 21 and Over will be very tempting for high-school and college-aged kids, especially with Spring Break coming up and no other party movies on tap (aside from Spring Breakers, which will likely get a much, much smaller release platform). I predict 21 and Over will open to $15M, on its way to six Top 5, two or three PTA and $36M overall. With a price tag of $10 (in both leagues), I would pass on this title as well and Jeff Chang Jeff Chang Jeff Chang.




Next up is The Last Exorcism Part II (CBS Films), the sequel to the semi-successful horror film of late summer 2010. The return of Ashley Bell’s character Nell Sweetzer is about the only thing left from the original: the distributor has changed (the original was from Lionsgate), the director has changed (Daniel Stamm has given way to Ed Gass-Donnelly), and this chapter is not being showcased in the now trite “found footage” format.

Continuing from where The Last Exorcism left off, Nell is found alone in the woods, now the only surviving member of her family and unable to remember most of the terrifying events that took place in the first film. And just as she starts to begin piecing her life back together, the evil force that once had a hold on her reveals designs suggesting that she’s not out of the proverbial woods just yet. Julie Garner, Spencer Treat Clark and Muse Watson co-star.

This may not be a “found footage” film, but it’s still a possession film, a genre that has become just as stale. It’s set for a decent number of theaters (2,600 or so), and it’s the last horror film for a while, but that doesn’t mean it will be a hit. It’s only $8 in Ultimate leagues ($9 in Box Office), but for that, I think you’ll get three Top 5 points (max), perhaps one PTA, a middling Rating, and an OW of $10 on its way to $22M. Not worth it.




The last of this week’s wide release films is Phantom (RCR Distribution), a thriller that stars Ed Harris as Demi, the captain of a Soviet submarine that has recently been stricken with seizures that alter his perception of reality. (Uh-oh.) Rushed into a classified mission, he finds him authority challenged by a rogue KGB group led by Bruni (David Duchovny), who is determined to take control of the nuclear missile on board. With global war looming, Demi realizes that he and he alone may hold the balance of peace in his hands. William Fichtner, Lance Henriksen and Sean Patrick Flanery co-star.

I’ve never heard of RCR, and I have yet to see a single poster, trailer or commercial for this film (other than the one on YouTube that I had to seek out). It is being shoved into 2,000 theaters and I have to wonder if one moviegoer in five hundred will have even heard of it. Needless to say, there will be no PTA, no Top 5, and not many dollars in store for Phantom. I will predict $2M/$6M, and even for $5 (in both leagues), this film is a bust.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three limited-release films:

Stoker (Fox Searchlight) ($5 Ult, $4 BO) – Like me, I’m sure the first thing you thought when you heard the title of this film was that it was a biopic of Dracula author Bram Stoker, but no. (When you think about it, that might make an interesting film… get on it, Hollywood!) Rather, it is the American film debut of acclaimed Korean director Chan-wook Park (who directed the original Oldboy), and it stars Mia Wasikowska (Alice in Wonderland), Matthew Goode (Watchmen), Alden Ehrenreich (Beautiful Creatures), Nicole Kidman (The Others) and Dermot Mulroney (The Grey).

The story: after the death of her father, young India Stoker (Wasikowska) becomes infatuated with her mysterious Uncle Charlie (Goode), who moves in to help take care of her and her unstable mother Evelyn (Kidman). A charming man on the surface, it soon becomes clear that Charlie has motives for his actions beyond being the family’s new caretaker. And for those who are familiar with Park’s work, we expect nothing less.

Scheduled to debut in only seven theaters, Stoker is easily the best pick of the week. It has an excellent chance to top the PTA chart for multiple weeks, making it a must-have in the March leagues. For only $5 in Ultimate, you could end up with double-digits in PTA, not to mention an exception Rating. Grab on to this one.




A Place at the Table (Magnolia) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This documentary is from the same team that brought us the similarly-themed doc Food, Inc. in 2008. It was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize at last year’s Sundance Film Festival, and it includes interviews with such celebrities as Jeff Bridges, journalist Raj Patel, and noted restaurateur and Top Chef judge Tom Colicchio.

The film tackles the very substantial dichotomy that America is: namely, that we are a country that leads the world in obesity, and yet over 49 million Americans (25% percent of which are children) are going hungry. Three individuals are filmed as examples: a single mother of two in Philadelphia, a second-grader from Colorado who depends on friends and neighbors for food, and another second-grader from Mississippi whose health is in danger given that her nutritional needs are met only with the cheap, unhealthy fare that is all her mother can afford. Thankfully, the film also seems to employ possible solutions to this problem.

I like documentaries that tackle relevant social issues, and A Place at the Table is one of those. Opening in just north of thirty theaters this Friday, I think this film will easily garner three or four PTA, but I would probably only choose it in the March leagues, as I don’t know if going up against Stoker, No and The Gatekeepers in the January and February leagues will bear fruit.




Hava Nagila (The Movie) (IFC) ($2 Ult, 1 BO) – If there is one Jewish traditional folk song that is known the whole world round, it’s Hava Nagila. It has been performed at Jewish weddings and bar/bat mitzvahs for generations. But where did it originate? What do the lyrics mean? This documentary from director Roberta Grossman explores the history and largely hidden meaning of the song.

I’ll just say it… is this a subject that’s worthy of an entire movie? Do that many people honestly care about the meaning of a song that they’d probably rather never hear again? Exactly. Pass on this one.




My predictions for the weekend of March 1-3, 2013:

1. Jack the Giant Killer - $27 million
2. 21 and Over - $15 million
3. The Last Exorcism Part II - $10 million
4. Identity Thief - $9 million
5. Snitch - $7 million
6. Escape From Planet Earth - $7 million

PTA race (Jan/Feb): Stoker, No, The Gatekeepers, A Place at the Table, Jack the Giant Killer

PTA race (Mar): Stoker, A Place at the Table, Jack the Giant Killer, 21 and Over, The Last Exorcism Part II

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Jack the Giant Slayer – N/A, N/A
21 and Over – N/A, N/A
The Last Exorcism Part II – N/A, N/A
Phantom – N/A, N/A
Stoker – 68% (13/19 positive), 7.7 (674 votes)
A Place at the Table – 100% (5/5 positive), 6.6 (44 votes)
Hava Nagila (The Movie) – N/A, 5.1 (8 votes)


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we tackle five new films, all scheduled for release on March 8th: Oz: The Great and Powerful, a Wizard of Oz prequel starring James Franco; Dead Man Down, a thriller starring Colin Farrell and Noomi Rapace; and, in limited release, Beyond the Hills, The ABC’s of Death and Don’t Stop Believin’: Everyman’s Journey.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

George Harrison (The Beatles) would have been 70 on 2/25
Michael Bolton (singer) turns 60 on 2/26
Kate Mara (Shooter, Iron Man 2, 127 Hours) turns 30 on 2/27
Jack Davenport (Smash, the POTC series) turns 40 on 3/1

Later!

[numbersix]

I've not much faith in any of these openers. But as last weekend was so bad perhaps people could see both Jack the Giant Killer and 21 and Over as relief. They should do okay. Not sure about Lastest Exorcism. Should open okay though Dark Skies failed to instill much faith in the genre. Phantom will be a disaster.

As for PTA, Stoker should do well and hopefully next weekend if it doesn't expand too quickly.

1. Jack the Giant Killer - $25 million
2. 21 and Over - $16 million
3. The Last Exorcism Part II - $13 million
4. Identity Thief - $8 million
5. Escape From Planet Earth - $7 million

[Buscemi]

Jack The Giant Slayer $25 million (pre-sales are very strong in New York but I can't see the film's campiness selling everywhere)
21 and Over $11 million (Relativity struck out with raunchy comedy earlier this year in Movie 43 and the trailers are dreadful)
The Last Exorcism Part II $7 million
Phantom $1.5 million

Holdovers:
Snitch drops 45-50%
Dark Skies drops 55-60%

[transformers2]

1.Jack the Giant Slayer $20 mil
2.21 and Over $18 mil
3.Identity Thief $8 mil
4.Snitch $8 mil
5.Escape from Planet Earth $7 mil

Last Exorcism II is going to tank hard, the first one was terribly received and the ad campaign has been pretty weak.

[englishozzy]

1. Jack the Giant Slayer - $24 million
2. 21 and Over - $18 million
3. Identity Thief - $8 million
4. Snitch - $7 million
5. Escape from Planet Earth - $5 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Jack The Giant Slayer will win the weekend by default, only because people will aimlessly wander into the theater because they've already seen Identity Thief and nothing else looks worth the $8.

I thought, back in January, Movie 43 would do well simply because it was a comedy in a dearth of comedies - even though it looked terrible. I won't make that mistake again.

1. Jack The Giant Slayer - $21M
2. 21 And Over - $9M
3. Snitch - $7M
4. Identity Thief - $7M
5. The Last Exorcism Part 2 - $6M
6. Dark Skies - $4M

[Buscemi]

On the awfulness of the 21 and Over trailers: saying Jeff Chang wasn't funny the first time so it surely won't funny the 30th time.

Also, I find it puzzling that a film that was partially financed by the Chinese government looks incredibly racist towards Asians. It seems like that every Asian character in the film fits some sort of negative stereotype that Asians have spent decades trying to shed.

[Shrykespeare]

Also, I find it puzzling that a film that was partially financed by the Chinese government looks incredibly racist towards Asians.

Where did you get that information, Boosh? That's a very curious thing for the Chinese government to be backing.

[numbersix]

According to wikipedia the Chinese version will be altered to make the Chinese-American actor playa kid from China who gets corrupted by the US and eventually returns home to the safety of China. Now that's creative censorship.

Wonder if the Vatican will try to digitally replace the crucifix scene in The Exorcist with a copy of Dawkins' The God Delusion?

[Buscemi]

The story goes that the Chinese government asked Relativity to reshoot some sequences with the government not only footing the bill but allowing the film to be released in China (most non-Chinese films are banned unless given clearance by the powers that be). Relativity accepted and as a result, there will be two versions of the film released.

This isn't the only forthcoming Hollywood movie to have partial backing from China's political powers. Kung Fu Panda 3 will be a US/China co-production (since the first two were so popular there).

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts (approximately):

Jack the Giant Slayer - 3,525
21 and Over - 2,771
The Last Exorcism Part II - 2,700
Phantom - 2,000+
Stoker - 7


Estimates for next week:

Oz: The Great and Powerful - 3,700+
Dead Man Down - 2,175
Beyond the Hills - 3

[Chienfantome]

So who else thinks Phantom is gonna defy all expectations and grab $18M this weekend ?
(yeah,, no, not me after all)

[Buscemi]

Put a period between the one and eight and we have a deal.

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report:


Ultimate FY (R1, R2, R3 - 45 players)

Jack the Giant Slayer - 6, 4, 0
21 and Over - 2, 4, 3
The Last Exorcism 2 - 0, 1, 0
Phantom - 0, 1, 0
Stoker - 15, 28, 18
A Place at the Table - 0, 1, 3
Hava Nagila - 0, 0, 0


Ultimate HY (R1, R2, R3 - 43 players)

Jack the Giant Slayer - 4, 3, 0
21 and Over - 2, 3, 1
The Last Exorcism 2 - 0, 1, 0
Phantom - 0, 1, 0
Stoker - 14, 21, 18
A Place at the Table - 0, 0, 3
Hava Nagila - 0, 2, 0


Box Office FY (R1, R2, R3 - 47 players)

Jack the Giant Slayer - 3, 2, 0
21 and Over - 3, 5, 0
The Last Exorcism 2 - 0, 0, 0
Phantom - 1, 1, 0
Stoker - 6, 2, 0
A Place at the Table - 0, 0, 0
Hava Nagila - 0, 0, 0


Box Office HY (R1, R2, R3 - 44 players)

Jack the Giant Slayer - 1, 4, 0
21 and Over - 4, 2, 2
The Last Exorcism 2 - 0, 3, 1
Phantom - 1, 0, 0
Stoker - 5, 0, 0
A Place at the Table - 1, 0, 0
Hava Nagila - 0, 0, 0


Bankrupts Leagues, 1st Quarter (Ult - 11 players; BO -

Jack the Giant Slayer - 7, 6
21 and Over - 1, 3
The Last Exorcism 2 - 1, 1
Phantom - 1, 2

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Since nobody cares about Jack The Giant Slayer, thoughts on how well OZ will do next weekend? Could it hit $100M OW?