SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/14, 2/15/13

[Shrykespeare]

Clearly jonesing for quality comedy, moviegoers decided en masse to go see Identity Thief hoping to scratch that particular itch. Whether they were satisfied with the result will likely be known in coming weeks depending on how the film holds, but for now, its $36.6M OW was the first film to debut north of $30M this year. Well back was Warm Bodies ($10.5M), which dropped less than 50% in its second week, as was Side Effects ($8.5M), Stephen Soderbergh’s latest (and reputedly last) directorial outing. On the PTA front, Oscar-nominated documentary The Gatekeepers took first place for the second straight week.

If you recall, it was the weekend immediately preceding Valentine’s Day last year where the box office really kicked into high gear. Four films made their debut, and all opened to very impressive numbers: The Vow ($41.2M) just beat out Safe House ($40.2M), not to mention Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($27.3M) and The Phantom Menace 3D re-release ($22.5M). And now, by a happy coincidence, four films are debuting this weekend, the weekend immediately following Valentine’s Day (which is Thursday), and even the genres are similar: a romantic drama, an action drama, a kid’s film, and a fantasy film aimed at teens and young adults.

It’s been a rough year for action films so far. Three well-known action film stars have all fielded new films in cinemas in the last month, and every single one of them has been met with monumental indifference. But whereas Schwarzenegger and Stallone are past their prime, and Statham was never that great a drawn in the first place (on his own, anyway), Bruce Willis has managed to remain a favorite with filmgoers non-stop for over twenty years now.

It was 25 years ago that Willis, then a star of the TV show Moonlighting, lit up the box office with the original Die Hard, an action film that would become an instant classic, spawning numerous one-man-army films featuring scads of less-talented actors, not to mention numerous sequels. It also catapulted Willis into the role of action star, a role he has not relinquished since. And though he has done the occasional serious drama or comedy, his bread and butter has been films where he gets to shoot tons o’ guns and just as many one-liners. And now, at the age of 58, he’s still going strong, and here comes A Good Day to Die Hard (Fox), Bruce’s fifth go-round as gritty New York cop John McClane.

The plot (like you care): John travels to Russia to help bail out his son Jack (Jack Reacher’s Jai Courtney), who was arrested for killing a corrupt government official’s aide. As it turns out, Jack is actually an undercover CIA operative who is working to prevent underworld forces from stealing some nuclear weapons. Together, they must team up and prevent the bad guys from doing bad things yadda yadda yadda blah blah fishcakes. (Um… Did he ever mention a son before? I mean, I remember his daughter from the first and fourth films, but I don’t remember him ever saying that he had a son! Can someone refresh my memory?)

Taking over for Len Wiseman (who directed the last installment in 2007) is John Moore (Max Payne), who will likely get the first blockbuster of his career with Good Day. The time seems ripe: Bruce is still as popular now as he’s ever been, and his presence in G.I. Joe: Retaliation can only help that film’s bottom line. Plus, Die Hard is a franchise that everyone knows and loves. (Yes, Live Free or Die Hard was largely seen as a disappointment, but it was the highest-grossing film in the series, so there’s that.)

I see only two possible things hurting Good Day’s box office potential: first, being preceded in failure by his fellow Expendables costars; second, the fact that we’ve seen Bruce SO MANY TIMES in roles where he plays a cop, or an agent, or an assassin, or every conceivable occupation where he gets to shoot people, that playing John McClane again really isn’t that special anymore. However, I think Bruce’s still-burning star and a ton of nostalgia will help him succeed where Arnold, Jason and Sly failed.

A Good Day to Die Hard (which is opening on Thursday in over 3,500 theaters) will run you $23 in the February Ultimate Leagues and $25 in Box Office. Considering that Monday is President’s Day, I think this film will stretch its legs nicely out of the gate, bringing in $33M in its first three days ($43M four-day), on its way to thirteen Top 5 points, five PTA, a Rating in the mid-7s and $118M overall. In other words, decent numbers, and very worthy of inclusion on your slates. There are some heavy hitters coming in early March, however, so be wary.




In the last decade-plus, no author of romantic dramas has been more successful in having his works turned into big-screen adaptations. Starting with 2004’s The Notebook ($81M), and continuing with Nights in Rodanthe ($41M), Dear John ($80M), The Last Song ($63M), and The Lucky One ($60M), Sparks has kept the date-movie chick flick alive and well. (No, The Vow was not a Sparks adaptation, but it might as well have been.)

So now, just in time for Valentine’s Day, comes Safe Haven (Relativity), which is directed by Swedish filmmaker Lasse Hallstrom (The Cider House Rules, Chocolat), and much like The Vow and the rest of Sparks’ stuff, Safe Haven features beautiful young people in beautiful locations trying to overcome some kind of adversity in order to fall in love with each other. A tried and true formula if there ever was one.

Katie (Step Up Revolution’s Julianne Hough) is a young woman who comes to the small town of Southport, North Carolina, fleeing from a somewhat shady past. Not wishing to form personal bonds for this reason, she is nonetheless drawn to widower and father of two Alex (Josh Duhamel), whose small-town charm eventually starts to win her over. But will her past come back to haunt her? Cue the serious music… Cobie Smulders (The Avengers) also costars.

Sparks’ film seem tailor-made for Valentine’s weekend, but funny enough, only Dear John of all of his films got a February opening. Now, The Vow opened to incredible numbers and finished well over $100M, but that film’s stars (Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams) are slightly higher up the A-list than Duhamel and Hough. What this all boils down to is that Safe Haven will likely open to decent numbers, but it won’t be a bank-breaker.

Safe Haven will run you $14 in the Ultimate leagues and $15 in Box Office. I think it will coax just enough young lovers to beat Beautiful Creatures and Identity Thief to the #2 spot. I’m thinking an OW of $23M, on its way to six or seven Top 5 points, a Rating in the low 6’s, a couple of PTA and $61M overall. Again, not bad, but not spectacular either.




Richard LaGravenese has been very adept at writing screenplays for over twenty years now, having penned the scripts for such notable films as The Fisher King, The Bridges of Madison County and The Horse Whisperer. Only in the last few years has he added the job description “writer-director” to his resume, having written and directed recent films such as Freedom Writers and P.S. I Love You. While still wearing both hats, LaGravenese is making his first foray in the fantasy genre, with a new film entitled Beautiful Creatures (Warner Bros.).

Though Creatures looks to be in a similar vein to Stephanie Meyer’s Twilight films (young people with supernatural abilities), Meyer’s next project will come next month with The Host. Creatures tells to story of Lena Duchannes (newcomer Alice Englert), who comes to the small town of Gatlin and immediately becomes the object of affection for young Ethan (Alden Ehrenreich). What Ethan doesn’t know is that Lena is a “caster” (witch) from a long line of casters, and with her 16th birthday rapidly approaching, she must soon undergo a ritual that will decide whether her life will be spent using her abilities for good or evil. Bummer.

The trailer looks cool and the plot engaging, and with Oscar veterans Emma Thompson, Viola Davis and Jeremy Irons backing the two young actors, Creatures may indeed be a quality film. However, I thought the same thing about 2007’s Stardust, and that film couldn’t even make $40M in a summer release. Creatures may indeed do better, but probably not a lot better. It'll probably do numbers similar to 2011's I Am Number Four ($19M/$55M).

Set to bow in over 2,900 theaters this Thursday, I peg Beautiful Creatures to open at $17M, which will probably only be good enough to earn two Top 5 points, no PTA, a so-so Rating and about $46M. For $13 (in both leagues), I would definitely pass on this one, especially with fantasy biggies Jack the Giant Killer and Oz: The Great and Powerful coming up in just a few weeks.




Last of the wide-release films this week is Escape From Planet Earth (Weinstein Co.), an animated film that looks to be aimed squarely at preteens and younger. It is the directorial debut for former storyboard artist Cal Brunker, and it stars Brendan Fraser, Sarah Jessica Parker, Jessica Alba, Rob Corddry, Ricky Gervais, William Shatner and Sofia Vergara. In other words, no one really relevant right now.

Escape is the latest animated film to go down the “aliens-good guys, humans-bad guys” road. The main character is Scorch Supernova (Fraser), a heroic astronaut from the planet Baab, who pulls off daring rescues with the help of his brainy brother Gary (Corddry). When Baab receives a distress call from aliens that are imprisoned on Earth in Area 51 (of course), they begin a mission to save them. Unfortunately, Scorch falls into the clutches of the villainous Shanker (Shatner, natch). So it falls to Gary to step into an unfamiliar role to save his brother and his planet from evil. Seems simple enough.

I’m getting more of a Planet 51 vibe from Escape than I am a Mars Needs Moms vibe. Planet 51 managed just over $40M in a November release three years ago, and I think Escape’s numbers will fall just short of those numbers. I’ll predict $15M/$37M, one Top 5 point and no PTA. It is the first cartoon movie of the year, yes, but I think kids and fans of that genre will just end up waiting for March’s The Croods, which looks well superior in just about every way.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s only limited-release feature:

No (Sony Classics) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This drama from director Pablo Lorrain is Chile’s entry for Best Foreign Language Film at the upcoming Academy Awards, where it will go up against films like A Royal Affair, Amour and Kon-Tiki (opening in April). The film chronicles a very dramatic period in Chile’s history; in 1988, a national referendum was held whether to let the dictatorial Augusto Pinochet continue his reign or whether the Junta would remain as interim leaders until a democratically-elected leader could be chosen. From the title, you can guess what the answer was.

This was the first election of its kind in Chile, and at the center was an ad exec named Rene Saavedra (Gael Garcia Bernal), who came up with the advertising campaign that ended up turning the tide against Pinochet, who ended up losing by a 55%-to-45% margin. Laced with political humor as well as drama, No is an excellent pick for your slates. I’m not sure how many theaters will be showcasing it, but it probably won’t be many (at least at first), and I think it has an excellent chance to not only beat Die Hard and The Gatekeepers, but to hold on for multiple weeks. Grab this one.




My predictions for the weekend of February 15-17, 2013:

1. A Good Day to Die Hard - $33 million
2. Safe Haven - $23 million
3. Identity Thief - $19 million
4. Beautiful Creatures - $17 million
5. Escape From Planet Earth - $15 million

PTA race (all leagues): No, A Good Day to Die Hard, The Gatekeepers, Safe Haven, Identity Thief

Current RT/IMDb scores:

A Good Day to Die Hard – N/A, 7.6 (1,935)
Save Haven – N/A, N/A
Beautiful Creatures – N/A, N/A
Escape From Planet Earth – N/A, N/A
No – 87% (26/30 positive), 7.7 (1,796 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out February with three (possibly five) new films, all of which are scheduled for release on February 22: Snitch, an action/drama starring Dwayne Johnson; Dark Skies, a horror film starring Keri Russell; and, in limited release, Hindi film Kai Po Che! (definitely), war drama Bless Me, Ultima (maybe), and drama Inescapable (maybe).

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Chuck Yeager (first pilot to break the sound barrier) turns 90 on 2/13
Kim Novak (Vertigo, Picnic) turns 80 on 2/13
Michael Jordan (NBA great) turns 50 on 2/17
Larry the Cable Guy (Cars, Blue Collar Comedy Tour) turns 50 on 2/17

Later!

[Buscemi]

A Good Day to Die Hard $35 million three-day ($50 million five-day)
Safe Haven $27 million ($40 million five-day)
Beautiful Creatures $13 million ($19 million five-day)
Escape from Planet Earth $8 million ($12 million five-day)

Holdovers:
Identity Thief drops 55-60%
Side Effects drops 55-60%

[numbersix]

I think Die Hard should do fine. Sure, the franchise is tired but action fans need something beyond the sub-par material they've been given so far. It's also great counterprogramming. I should easily break 100m, just like Safe House did.

Safe Haven will get in the romantic types, just like The Vow. Beautiful Creatures will have an impact on that crowd, but the buzz for this Twilight clone isn't huge and the premise is very weak. Not sure about Escape.... it's the only kiddie film until Oz, so might surprise.

No should do well in terms of PTA, maybe 4 points after Die Hard, and some more next weekend.


3-day predictions

1. A Good Day to Die Hard - $37 million
2. Safe Haven - $29 million
3. Identity Thief - $18 million
4. Escape From Planet Earth - $17 million
5. Beautiful Creatures - $14 million

[Shrykespeare]

How's early tracking looking? Anyone?

[silversurfer19]

MTC has tracking at:

Die Hard - $39m
Safe Haven - $20m
Beautiful Creatures - $14m
Escape - $13m

[Shrykespeare]

Wow, no comments so far?


Official theater counts:

A Good Day to Die Hard - 3,553
Escape From Planet Earth - 3,288
Safe Haven - 3,223
Beautiful Creatures - 2,950
No - N/A


Estimates for next week:

Snitch - 2,500
Dark Skies - 2,400

[JohnErle]

Deadline has both Die Hard and Safe Haven at right around $10 million for V-Day, which is pretty good. Beautiful Creatures is being ignored by audiences with more like $3 million.

I totally forgot it was Presdient's Day this weekend in the States, but I don't think that would have affected my picks much. I'm one of the few to not pick Die Hard 5: Mission To Moscow in the super leagues, so I'd better be right. I'm expecting a decent opening but terrible legs since the horrible reviews and "from the director of Max Payne" imply that it's probably a POS.

And I didn't pick Safe Haven either because I'm hoping Josh Douschamel is too old and creepy for the Nicholas Sparks crowd.

[Buscemi]

I see Die Hard being like Taken 2: awful reviews but audiences love it. As long as you deliver on what's advertised (a cool old guy kicking ass), it should have no problem making money.

[Shrykespeare]

That's a very apropos comparison, Boosh. Taken 2 ended up just north of $120M, and I think DH5 can do the same. It's the last pure action film (outside of Snitch) that will hit theaters until, ironically, Willis's next film (GI Joe).

[BanksIsDaFuture]

A big old pile of Meh until Oz comes out...

[Geezer]

A big old pile of Meh until Oz comes out...

Completely agree. I haven't wanted to see a single 2013 film until Oz. Which is good in a way, it's given me time to catch up on 2012.

[Brockster]

and "from the director of Max Payne" imply that it's probably a POS.

lol...literally, that made me laugh out loud at work

I think casting both Duhamel and Hough is going to hold Safe Haven back...if just one of them had been cast, and then you know...someone else who could actually act, I think it could have been a fairly big hit, similar to Dear John. Because the story line is intruiging.

[Shrykespeare]

Stock Report


Mini-Supers Round Two (Ult - 31 players; BO - 30 players)

A Good Day to Die Hard - 10, 11
Safe Haven - 5, 2
Beautiful Creatures - 5, 3
Escape From Planet Earth - 0, 2
No - 7, 2


2013 Super Leagues Ult FY (R1 - 45 players; R2 - 43 players

A Good Day to Die Hard - 28, 17
Safe Haven - 9, 7
Beautiful Creatures - 9, 6
Escape From Planet Earth - 1, 2
No - 18, 16


2013 Super Leagues Ult HY (R1 - 43 players; R2 - 41 players)

A Good Day to Die Hard - 29, 13
Safe Haven - 9, 9
Beautiful Creatures - 5, 2
Escape From Planet Earth - 5, 2
No - 14, 15


2013 Super Leagues BO FY (R1 - 47 players; R2 - 44 players)

A Good Day to Die Hard - 36, 23
Safe Haven - 19, 8
Beautiful Creatures - 8, 4
Escape From Planet Earth - 7, 4
No - 2, 0


2013 Super Leagues BO HY (R1 - 44 players; R2 - 41 players)

A Good Day to Die Hard - 29, 18
Safe Haven - 15, 8
Beautiful Creatures - 9, 5
Escape From Planet Earth - 5, 5
No - 3, 1


Bankrupts Leagues, 1st Quarter (Ult - 11 players; BO - 13 players)

A Good Day to Die Hard - 1, 0
Safe Haven - 3, 3
Beautiful Creatures - 3, 3
Escape From Planet Earth - 5, 7
No - 0, 0

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

A Good Day to Die Hard, $7.2M
Safe Haven, $7.1M
Identity Thief, $6.5M
Escape From Planet Earth, $3.7M
Warm Bodies, $2.6M
Beautiful Creatures, $2.3M
Silver Linings Playbook, $1.4M


Weekend Projections

A Good Day to Die Hard, $23.5M
Identity Thief, $22.5M
Safe Haven, $22.0M
Escape From Planet Earth, $15.0M
Warm Bodies, $9.0M
Beautiful Creatures, $7.8M (ouch)
Silver Linings Playbook, $6.2M
Side Effects, $6.2M
Hansel and Gretel, $3.4M
Zero Dark Thirty, $2.8M
Mama, $2.7M

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - A Good Day to Die Hard, $25M ($33.2M 4-day)
4 points - Identity Thief, $23.4M ($70.7M total)
3 points - Safe Haven, $21.4M ($30.3M 4-day)
2 points - Escape From Planet Earth, $16.1M
1 point - Warm Bodies, $9.0M
Beautiful Creatures, $7.5M ($10.0M 4-day)
Side Effects, $6.3M
Silver Linings Playbook, $6.1M (will hit $100M this week)
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, $3.5M
Zero Dark Thirty, $3.1M

PTA (all leagues):
5 points - No
4 points - The Gatekeepers
3 points - Identity Thief
2 points - A Good Day to Die Hard
1 point - Safe Haven