SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/1/13

[Shrykespeare]

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters took top honors this weekend, bringing in $19M, nearly triple the output of newcomers Parker and Movie 43. Silver Linings Playbook ran its Top 5 total to nine and its PTA total to eighteen in its last week of eligibility, while Zero Dark Thirty continued its run in the Top 5. On the PTA front, John Dies at the End took its one-theater show to the top, just ahead of French titan Amour.

As we segue to the second week of the month, we have five films to talk about; two will be opening in wide release, three in limited release; one of these films was a very late addition to the roster, and I’m trying to have it added before this weekend, so I’ll preview it in hopes that it will indeed be part of the game.

The film being given the widest release this week is Warm Bodies (Summit Entertainment), and it will be making its way into 2,900 theaters starting Friday. This film, the latest from director Jonathan Levine (The Wackness, 50/50) is an interesting twist on what may have been a typical zombie horror flick… this one actually has a romantic arc to it, which is something you rarely see in film of this genre.

Imagine a future where a zombie apocalypse has occurred, and America is now a wasteland filled with abandoned buildings, houses and vehicles. Enter R (Nicholas Hoult), a young zombie who wanders the land with the rest of the undead with his friend M (Rob Corddry). R happens upon a group of humans who are foraging for medical supplies, kills their leader and eats his brain. And now, the twist… apparently doing so infuses zombies with the memories of their victims, and R is suddenly overcome with love for the dead man’s girlfriend, Julie (Teresa Palmer). Well, that’s about as awkward and weird as it gets. Eventually, R begins to show signs of coming back to “life”, something that Julie’s father (John Malkovich) refuses to believe.

Based on Isaac Marion’s popular novel of the same name, Warm Bodies is rated PG-13 instead of the expected R (no pun intended). This is the first film of the year that seems to have been specifically targeted to young people, and I think they will respond in kind. Yes, Safe Haven will draw the romantics away, and Beautiful Creatures will draw the fantasts away, but that’s two weeks from now. This week, I think Warm Bodies will have an easy time taking first place.

Warm Bodies is priced very reasonably at $9 in the February Ultimate leagues ($8 in Box Office). For that paltry amount, I think you will get eight Top 5 points, at least four PTA, and an OW approaching $19M, perhaps as much as $46M overall. This is a very good buy for your February slates.




It would seem that The Expendables franchise has opened the door for a whole bevy of past-their-prime action stars to try to reenter the game. And while Bruce Willis and Jason Statham never really left it, the same can’t really be said for Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sylvester Stallone. Case in point: except for The Expendables films (which, let’s face it, was an ensemble cast) it’s been over a decade since Stallone has headlined a film that wasn’t past of the Rocky or Rambo series. But at 66 years young, Sly is back in theaters, in an action film entitled Bullet to the Head (Warner Bros.).

Stallone plays Jimmy Bobo, a hitman for hire who teams up with a young NYPD detective (Ninja Assassin’s Sung Kang) to investigate a crime syndicate that is responsible for the murder of both men’s partners. From New York to New Orleans, the body count is sure to mount as revenge is exacted. Jason Momoa (Conan the Barbarian) and Christian Slater (where has HE been?) costar, and Walter Hill (48 HRS.) directs.

Does it look cheesy? Yes, it does. Will it bring in big bucks? Well, Arnold arguably has (or had) a bigger fan base than Sylvester does, and The Last Stand tanked despite mostly positive reviews. I think that if any Expendables alum strikes it big, it will undoubtedly be Bruce Willis in the upcoming A Good Day to Die Hard in two weeks (and then again in late March with G.I. Joe: Retaliation).

Bullet to the Head will run you $11 in Ultimate and $10 in Box Office. For that amount of money, I think you’ll be lucky to escape with three Top 5 points, three or four PTA, a Rating around 6.8 and an OW of $9M on its way to $21M overall. Sorry, Sly, teenage zombies are a bigger draw than you are now. Time catches up to everyone.




When we on the pricing panel envisioned the possibilities for Stand Up Guys (Lionsgate), we couldn’t have predicted that this multi-talented veteran cast would only be given a platform of 450 theaters… this is why we priced it at $12 in both leagues, mostly because the top three billers are actors that combined have more than a century of acting experience and fourteen Academy Award nominations between them.

The story: Al Pacino plays Val, an ex-con who reunites with his old partner Doc (Christopher Walken) after spending nearly three decades behind bars. What Val soon discovers, however, is that Doc has been sent to kill him, as revenge for the accidental killing of the son of a baddie named Claphands (Mark Margolis, who has been playing this role since Scarface), so Val convinces Doc to let him enjoy a tiny bit of freedom before the end. Alan Arkin (so wonderful in Argo) also costars, as does Julianna Margulies.

Unfortunately, 450 theaters is probably too few to expect any Top 5 points, and Stand Up Guyswill only get one or two PTA, tops, and it will only get that because it’s opening on February’s leadoff weekend. Even more unfortunately, at $12 it’s really only a suitable candidate for the Bankrupts leagues.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s limited-release films:

The Gatekeepers (Sony Classics) – ($4 Ult, $1 BO) – This documentary from Israel is one of the nominees for Best Documentary at next month’s Oscars. Director Dror Moreh has gathered and interviewed former members of the Shin Bet (Israel’s private security force, not unlike the CIA) and probes them for information regarding some well-guarded secrets that have taken place behind the scenes, from the events of the Six Day War in 1967 all the way up to the present day.

Well, kudos to Moreh for convincing one of the lead “Gatekeepers”, Ami Ayalon, who was the first to agree to appear on-camera, because after that, former Shin Bet members appeared out of the woodwork. Naturally, some subjects were still rather problematic to speak of, but anyone interested in the politics of that turmoil-filled region might just be interested in this film.

Who knows: The Gatekeepers may earn a statue next month, if it beats out other notable entries such as Searching For Sugar Man and How to Survive a Plague. In any case, its release platform (three theaters in NY and LA) make it a tantalizing pick. I would be amazed if, in the February leagues anyway, it ended up with fewer than seven PTA. This may be the first must-have of the season, a least in a return-on-investment perspective.




Sound City (Variance Films) ($3 Ult, $1 BO… MAYBE) – This documentary was just added to the docket by BOM, and since I like to have at least five titles on the roster every weekend, I am hoping to have it added in time, because it seems like a cool film. This film has some very familiar faces, both in front of the camera and behind it; in fact, it is directed by none other than Foo Fighters lead singer (and former Nirvana member) Dave Grohl.

Sound City was one of the best-kept secrets in the music industry, a recording studio nestled in an area filled with rundown and abandoned warehouses. This studio housed a one-of-a-kind recording console, and some of rock and roll’s most notable names used it to ply their art, including Fleetwood Mac, Tom Petty, Metallica, and, of course, Nirvana.

Of course, the age of digital music eventually put an end to Sound City, so in all likelihood, the only people that might be interested in this documentary are rock-and-roll purists. Of course, there are a lot of those, so what do I know? This film will be opening in what looks to be about fifty locations this weekend. It could easily pick up two or three PTA… IF it gets added to the list in time. I’ll keep everybody posted.




My predictions for the weekend of February 1-3, 2013:

1. Warm Bodies - $19 million
2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters - $10 million
3. Bullet to the Head - $9 million
4. Zero Dark Thirty – $6 million
5. Silver Linings Playbook - $6 million

PTA race (Dec/Jan): The Gatekeepers, Warm Bodies, Amour, (Sound City), John Dies at the End

PTA race (Feb): The Gatekeepers, Warm Bodies, (Sound City), Bullet to the Head, Stand Up Guys

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Warm Bodies – 100% (3/3 positive), N/A
Bullet to the Head – 56% (5/9 positive), 7.0 (1,310 votes)
Stand Up Guys – 40% (6/15 positive), 6.6 (2,668 votes)
The Gatekeepers – 94% (15/16 positive), 7.3 (281 votes)
Sound City – 100% (3/3 positive), N/A

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we plow on through February with five new titles (hopefully): Identity Thief, a comedy starring Jason Bateman and Melissa McCarthy; Side Effects, the new Stephen Soderbergh drama starring Jude Law and Channing Tatum; and, in limited release, A Glimpse Into the Mind of Charles Swan III (Charlie Sheen’s return to the big screen), Lore, and Spiders.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Will Poulter (Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader) turns 20 on 1/28
Portia de Rossi (Arrested Development) turns 40 on 1/31
Blythe Danner (Meet the Parents) turns 70 on 2/3

Later!

[Chienfantome]

450 theaters for Stand up guys.... pfffff... Now what good is it gonna do to my draft slate...

[Buscemi]

I've said it before but who is the audience for Warm Bodies? It's too violent for the Twilight crowd and too romantic for the crowd that watches zombie movies. Also, the zombie comedy has been overplayed ever since Zombieland was a hit. I'll say $10 million for the weekend.

Bullet to the Head has been getting a decent ad push lately but it looks like too little, too late for it. $9 million for the weekend.

Stand Up Guys has a strong cast but lacks the reviews that could have made it a hit. $1.5 million for the weekend.

Holdovers:
Hansel and Gretel drops 55-60%
Parker drops 50-55%
Movie 43 drops 70-75%

[numbersix]

I have no idea how Warm Bodies will perform. I'm having trouble seeing who the audience is. It's a zombie movie but with romance. Will that get in the teenage girls? Do they even like zombie films? It doesn't help that the leads are not exactly known stars. It is based on a popular novel, but it's hard to tell whether it'll be a hit because of that. Then again, this is the year of zombie films (with WWZ on its way) and Walking Dead was a hit on TV and as a video game. And the 1st week of Feb can surprise. Oh, and it's probably the first film of the year that has any appeal for a female audience.

I don't see Bullet to the Head doing well. Arnie and Statham couldn't pull in an audience, so I doubt Sly can. Roll on Expendables 3.

As for PTA, The Gatekeepers is one of the best picks for Feb (along with No). Sound City might pick up some points as well.

1. Warm Bodies - $14 million
2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters - $8.5 million
3. Bullet to the Head - $8 million
4. Silver Linings Playbook - $7 million
5. Zero Dark Thirty – $7 million

[transformers2]

1.Warm Bodies $18 mil
2.Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $9 mil
3.Bullet to the Head $9 mil
4.Silver Linings Playbook $8 mil
5.Zero Dark Thirty $7 mil

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Warm Bodies is definitely being marketed towards teen girls. It's not too violent, Roeper's review called it the a very tame PG-13, if I remember correctly. They don't actually show any zombies eating people, it's mostly implied off-screen.

It's way more of a romance, a Romeo & Juliet with zombies. Hell, the guy's name is R and the girl's name is Julie.

[numbersix]

I've changed my mind about Warm Bodies. It's tracking quite well (low 20s) so I think it's worth a punt. At least 7 T5 points and at least 2 PTA points makes it worth it.

[Geezer]

I think if it were released two weeks later (in the crowded Valentine's day market, I mean what is that with 4 films getting wide release?!?!?!?) it would be swallowed alive. But, in the current state, with little competition, it should easily win the weekend.

[Buscemi]

Beautiful Creatures and Escape from Planet Earth are DOA. These are films that would have never impressed anyone at any date.

The interesting thing about Warm Bodies: it was supposed to be a Summer release but got delayed due to Lionsgate buying Summit (it's also ironic that Lionsgate has been trying to shed their horror image for some time now but bought out a company best known for horror and horror-lite titles).

[Chienfantome]

I wouldn't be surprised if Beautiful Creatures did better than expected. It certainly isn't DOA I think. It clearly won't be the new Twilight or Hunger Games, but despite the stronge competition that weekend, it should do fine.

[Buscemi]

Middle America already got their Twilight in the form of The Hunger Games. Combine that with the grating accents, the premise being a complete ripoff of the first Twilight and its uninteresting cast (for example, Jeremy Irons hasn't been a name in years and has the worst taste in fantasy films) and you have whole target audience asking, "Two for Safe Haven, please".

[Chienfantome]

In the world of YA adaptations, I think it's safe to say the casting doesn't matter much as long as there are pretty faces in it.

[Buscemi]

In 2008, Twilight was actually considered well-cast (Pattinson was a Harry Potter veteran while Stewart was rising up the ranks) and The Hunger Games had casting that people could agree with. But with Beautiful Creatures, you can tell they went the cheap route (even good actors like Emma Thompson and Viola Davis seem to be replacements for bigger names).

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Warm Bodies - 3,009
Bullet to the Head - 2,404
Stand Up Guys - 659


Estimates for Next Week;

Identity Thief - 3,000
Side Effects - 2,400-2,600
A Glimpse Inside - 2
Top Gun 3D - 300

[Chienfantome]

Come on Boosch, you're not the one who'll be telling me that the cast of the 1st Twilight was a selling point back then. Pattinson got trashed by the twifans and was only a secondary character in a Harry Potter film. And you had no respectable actors playing the secondary characters (say what you want about Viola Davis, Emma Thompson and Jeremy Irons, they are identifiable names). The only one I can agree on is Stewart.